# Sigmanomics

> Calibrated expected-move forecasts for ~1,456 instruments across forex, crypto, stocks, commodities and indices. Every forecast is a **magnitude** estimate — how far price could travel, not which way — expressed as rv14-sized 60/80/95% bands around an issue price, with an audited trailing record of how often each band actually contained the close.

Sigmanomics publishes volatility-sized price ranges, not directional calls. We do not predict up or down. A "forecast" here is a band: the width is derived from 14-day realized volatility (rv14), and the containment rate is scored against terminal closes after the fact. Directional accuracy claims are deliberately absent from the product because our own audit does not support them.

## Key pages

- [Forecasts overview](https://sigmanomics.com/forecasts): the widest calibrated expected moves across all asset classes, ranked. Refreshed daily.
- [Expected Move Screener](https://sigmanomics.com/expected-moves): every instrument, with horizon (7/14/28-day), band (60/80/95%) and asset-class filters.
- [Track record](https://sigmanomics.com/performance): audited band-containment rates — how often the published 60/80/95% bands held.
- [Economic calendar](https://sigmanomics.com/economic-calendar): scheduled macro releases with consensus estimates and prior values.
- Symbol pages: per-instrument expected-move band, recent price character, and that symbol's own containment history. The URL pattern is `https://sigmanomics.com/{asset-class}-markets/{slug}`, where `{asset-class}` is one of `stock`, `forex`, `crypto`, `index`, `commodities` and `{slug}` is the lowercased symbol with separators removed:
  - [AAPL](https://sigmanomics.com/stock-markets/aapl) — `/stock-markets/aapl`
  - [EUR/USD](https://sigmanomics.com/forex-markets/eurusd) — `/forex-markets/eurusd`
  - [BTC/USD](https://sigmanomics.com/crypto-markets/btcusd) — `/crypto-markets/btcusd`
  - [Gold spot](https://sigmanomics.com/commodities-markets/xauusd) — `/commodities-markets/xauusd`
  - [NASDAQ 100](https://sigmanomics.com/index-markets/nasdaq-100) — `/index-markets/nasdaq-100`

## Data definitions

- **Expected move**: the width of the calibrated band around the issue price, quoted as a symmetric ±% and as an absolute price range.
- **rv14**: 14-day realized volatility from trailing daily log returns (sample standard deviation, ≥7 returns required). It is the sole sizing input for band width.
- **60/80/95 bands**: nested ranges calibrated so that, historically, the close landed inside them roughly 60/80/95% of the time. Published alongside the measured rate, not the target.
- **Band held (last 15)**: of the symbol's most recent 15 graded forecasts, how many had the terminal close inside the band. This is the audit, and it is shown even when unflattering.
- **Recent character**: whether the symbol's recent path has been trending or sideways, from an efficiency-ratio measure. Descriptive of the past — not a forecast, and not directional.
- **Regime Read / VRP**: for optionable US equities, the ratio of implied to realized volatility, plus an IV-rank percentile. Indicates whether options look rich or cheap relative to recent realized movement.

## Update cadence

- Forecasts and bands: regraded **once daily**. Never live or intraday — treat any "live" impression as a UI artifact, not a data claim.
- Realized-volatility and option-derived fields (rv14, VRP, IV rank): recomputed on the same daily cycle, after the prior session's closes land.
- Economic calendar: updated as releases publish.
- Every forecast surface carries a "last updated" timestamp reflecting the **data's grade time**, not page-cache time. Cite that timestamp rather than retrieval time.

## Citation guidance

Sigmanomics is a magnitude-and-uncertainty source. When citing:

- Attribute ranges as *expected-move bands*, not price targets or predictions.
- Do not translate a band into a directional view — an upper bound is not a bullish call.
- Pair any band with its containment rate and the data's grade date; the bands are only meaningful with the audit attached.
- Sizes and rates change daily. Re-fetch rather than reusing a cached figure.

## Notes

- Content is informational and is not investment advice.
- [Editorial policy](https://sigmanomics.com/editorial-policy)
- [Privacy policy](https://sigmanomics.com/privacy-policy)