Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina PMI climbed to 52.4% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
China PMI climbed to 52.4% in September 2026, up 0.3% from August's 52.1% reading. The reading matched the 52.3% consensus. PMI has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, PMI averaged 51.45%, vs 53.55% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 80th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
52.4
Actual
52.3
Consensus
52.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.72 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 52.03
Actual: 52.4
Error: -0.38
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PMI (China) was reported at 52.4% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 52.3% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 52.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 51.88%, ranging from 49.8% to 55.4% across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 51.77%, down from the prior three at 53.63%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.45%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.76%). In September readings over the past 3 years, PMI has averaged 52.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.72%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NBS Non Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31) and NBS Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
SHARE
PMI - CN
Loading chart data...
About PMI — China
DEFINITION
PMI, or Purchasing Managers' Index, is a widely used economic indicator that measures the health of a country's manufacturing sector. It is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers from various industries, and provides valuable insights into the overall economic activity and future trends. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, businesses, and policymakers as it can help inform decisions related to investments, production, and economic policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 52.4 %, consensus 52.3 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 52.1 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 50.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP