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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina PMI climbed to 54.0% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
China PMI climbed to 54.0% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 0.9% from April's 53.1% reading. The reading matched the 52.8% consensus. PMI has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, PMI averaged 52.3%, vs 51.76% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 92nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
54
Actual
52.8
Consensus
53.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.7 percentage points
across last 9 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 52
Actual: 54
Error: -2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | INDEX | Bearish Hang Seng | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| USD/CNY | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PMI (China) was reported at 54% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 52.8% by 1.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 53.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 51.65%, ranging from 49.8% to 55.4% across 14 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 53.63%, up from the prior three at 50.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 9 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.7%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 3, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun 22) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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PMI - CN
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About PMI — China
DEFINITION
PMI, or Purchasing Managers' Index, is a widely used economic indicator that measures the health of a country's manufacturing sector. It is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers from various industries, and provides valuable insights into the overall economic activity and future trends. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, businesses, and policymakers as it can help inform decisions related to investments, production, and economic policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 54 %, consensus 52.8 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 53.1 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 51.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng, r=-0.54) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.