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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina PMI climbed to 52.1% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
China PMI climbed to 52.1% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 1.3% from July's 50.8% reading. The reading matched the 51.0% consensus. The reading is in the 79th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
52.1
Actual
51
Consensus
50.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.75 percentage points
across last 11 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 49.9
Actual: 52.1
Error: -2.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PMI (China) was reported at 52.1% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 51% by 1.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 50.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 51.89%, ranging from 49.8% to 55.4% across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 52.3%, down from the prior three at 52.83%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.45%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.57%). In September readings over the past 3 years, PMI has averaged 52.17%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). Over the last 11 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.75%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include FDI (Sep 17) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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PMI - CN
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About PMI — China
DEFINITION
PMI, or Purchasing Managers' Index, is a widely used economic indicator that measures the health of a country's manufacturing sector. It is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers from various industries, and provides valuable insights into the overall economic activity and future trends. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, businesses, and policymakers as it can help inform decisions related to investments, production, and economic policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 52.1 %, consensus 51 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 50.8 %. Before that (May 2026): 54 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | CN | M2 Money Supply YoY | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Total Social Financing | 1660 | 1410 | 2040 | 1850.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | New Loans | 60 | -340 | 400 | 230.00 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | CN | House Price Index YoY | -3 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -3.10 | Medium |
| 02:00 | CN | Retail Sales YoY | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.63 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Industrial Production YoY | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.95 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Fixed Asset Investment | -7.2 | -6.7 | -7.2 | -7.72 | Medium |