Latest updates

Japan’s Consumer Confidence for December 2025 came in at 37.20, missing the consensus estimate of 37.80 and down from November’s 37.50. This 0.30-point decline signals a slight pullback in consumer sentiment, though the index remains well below the expansion threshold of 50, reflecting ongoing caution amid inflation and geopolitical risks. Looking ahead, the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain accommodative policy, with consumer confidence likely to fluctuate around current levels as wage growth and external uncertainties shape spending. Updated 1/8/26

The US Fed Interest Rate Decision for November 2025 surprised markets with a cut to 3.75%, matching estimates but down from October’s 4.00%, signaling a shift from tightening to a more accommodative stance. This 25 basis point reduction reflects easing inflation pressures and stable labor market conditions, supporting moderate economic expansion. Looking ahead, the Fed is likely to pause further hikes as inflation trends downward, while markets price in a 60% chance of additional cuts in 2026. Updated 12/10/25

Canada’s BoC Interest Rate Decision for December 2025 held steady at 2.25%, matching expectations and unchanged from October’s 2.25%. This fourth consecutive hold signals a cautious stance amid easing inflation and slowing growth, with core CPI down to 3.10% in November from 3.30% in October. Looking ahead, the BoC is likely to maintain this steady rate through Q1 2026, balancing inflation risks against external uncertainties. Updated 12/10/25

Germany’s Consumer Confidence for November 2025 fell sharply to -26.90, missing estimates of -23.20 and declining from October’s -23.40. This 3.50-point drop signals increased household pessimism and contraction in consumer sentiment, marking the lowest level since April 2025. Looking ahead, persistent inflation and ECB tightening suggest cautious spending, likely weighing on growth and market volatility in early 2026. Updated 12/19/25

Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for December 2025 surged to 59.60, significantly beating the 42.00 estimate and rising from November’s 45.80. This 13.80-point increase signals a strong expansion in economic outlook, well above the neutral 50 threshold. The robust sentiment may prompt more optimistic policy stances and bolster market confidence heading into 2026. Updated 1/20/26

The UK Unemployment Rate for December 2025 matched expectations at 5.10%, unchanged from November's 5.10%. This steady rate suggests a stable labor market with no immediate signs of contraction or expansion. Looking ahead, policymakers may maintain current measures as the labor market shows no significant shifts. Updated 1/20/26

UK Employment Change for December 2025 surprised with a strong rebound to 82,000 jobs, sharply reversing November’s -16,000 and beating the consensus estimate of -25,000. This turnaround signals renewed labor market expansion after two months of contraction, though the level remains below the 12-month average of +120,000. The Bank of England may delay rate cuts as this robust gain raises prospects of sustained wage pressures and inflation risks. Updated 1/20/26

Canada’s December 2025 CPI came in at 2.70%, matching consensus and down from November’s 2.80%, signaling a continued easing of inflation pressures. This 0.10 percentage point decline marks the lowest annual inflation since April 2025 and suggests a gradual return toward the Bank of Canada’s 2% target. Market reaction favors a cautious policy pause with rate cuts likely delayed until further disinflation is confirmed. Updated 1/19/26

Canada’s Inflation Rate YoY for December 2025 came in at 2.40%, beating the consensus estimate of 2.10% and rising from November’s 2.20%. This 0.20 percentage point increase signals renewed inflationary pressure, with the rate now above the Bank of Canada’s 2% target midpoint, indicating expansion in price growth. Looking ahead, this upside surprise is likely to delay rate cuts and maintain a hawkish monetary policy stance. Updated 1/19/26

The EU Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 came in at 129.54, slightly below the consensus estimate of 129.56. This represents a modest 0.20% increase from November’s 129.33, signaling a stable inflation environment without clear expansion or contraction. Market reaction suggests continued ECB patience, with expectations for a cautious monetary policy stance as inflation momentum remains subdued. Updated 1/19/26

China’s Unemployment Rate for December 2025 held steady at 5.10%, matching November’s reading and consensus estimates. This unchanged rate from the prior month signals a labor market plateau amid ongoing structural challenges and subdued cyclical momentum. Looking ahead, policymakers are expected to maintain accommodative measures to support employment stability as 2026 unfolds. Updated 1/19/26

China’s Industrial Production YoY for December 2025 rose 5.20%, beating the 5.00% estimate and accelerating from November’s 4.80%. This 0.40 percentage point increase signals expansion and a rebound after two months of slower growth. Looking ahead, the stronger output supports stable policy expectations and positive market sentiment amid ongoing global uncertainties. Updated 1/19/26

China’s Retail Sales YoY for December 2025 came in at 0.90%, missing the 1.20% estimate and down from November’s 1.30%, signaling a clear deceleration in consumer spending. This sharp slowdown from the prior month confirms a contraction in momentum and highlights persistent caution among households amid ongoing economic headwinds. Market expectations now lean toward intensified fiscal stimulus and continued monetary easing to support demand. Updated 1/19/26

China's GDP Growth Rate YoY for December 2025 came in at 4.50%, slightly beating the 4.40% estimate but down from 4.80% in November, indicating a continued slowdown in economic expansion. This 0.30 percentage point decline signals a moderation in growth momentum, though the economy remains in expansion territory. Policymakers may consider supportive measures to sustain growth amid global uncertainties. Updated 1/19/26

The US Jobless Claims 4-Week Average for December 2025 came in at 205,000, beating the consensus estimate of 215,000 and down from November’s 211,750. This 3.20% month-over-month decline signals a moderating labor market with sustained resilience despite tightening financial conditions. Looking ahead, the data supports expectations of a gradual economic slowdown without sharp layoffs, influencing cautious optimism in monetary policy and market sentiment. Updated 1/15/26

US Initial Jobless Claims for December 2025 came in at 198,000, beating the consensus estimate of 215,000 and down from November’s 208,000. This 4.80% decline signals continued labor market resilience despite tightening financial conditions. Looking ahead, the sustained low claims may keep the Federal Reserve cautious on rate cuts as wage pressures persist. Updated 1/15/26

US Continuing Jobless Claims for December 2025 came in at 1884.00K, slightly below the estimate of 1890.00K and down from November’s 1914.00K. This 1.57% month-over-month decline signals a modest easing in labor market stress, reflecting cautious employer retention amid ongoing economic uncertainty. Looking ahead, the data supports expectations of continued Fed vigilance with a stable but cooling labor market. Updated 1/15/26

The US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for December 2025 surged to 7.70, well above the 1.00 consensus and reversing November’s contraction of -3.90. This 11.60-point rebound signals renewed expansion in regional manufacturing after a volatile autumn, though it remains below October’s 10.70 reading. Looking ahead, ongoing Fed tightening and geopolitical risks suggest cautious optimism as markets weigh inflation and supply chain developments. Updated 1/15/26

The UK Gross Domestic Product YoY for December 2025 came in at 1.40%, beating the 1.10% estimate and rising from November’s 1.10%. This 0.30 percentage point increase signals continued economic expansion despite tighter financial conditions. Looking ahead, the resilient growth supports expectations for a cautious pause in Bank of England rate hikes and bolsters market confidence in the UK’s economic outlook. Updated 1/15/26

The UK’s Goods Trade Balance for December 2025 posted a deficit of £23.71 billion, missing expectations of -£20.40 billion and worsening from November’s -£22.54 billion. This 5.10% month-over-month increase signals a deepening trade deficit amid ongoing supply chain disruptions and higher import costs. Looking ahead, persistent external pressures and tightening monetary policy suggest continued challenges for the UK’s trade position and currency stability. Updated 1/15/26

The UK’s Goods Trade Balance Non-EU for December 2025 recorded a deficit of -11.46 billion GBP, missing the consensus estimate of -9.10 billion and worsening from November’s -10.26 billion. This 1.20 billion GBP month-over-month increase signals a deepening trade deficit, reflecting contractionary pressures on the external sector. Looking ahead, persistent inflation and supply chain disruptions suggest continued challenges for UK trade competitiveness and currency stability. Updated 1/15/26

The UK Gross Domestic Product MoM for December 2025 surprised with a strong 0.30% increase, well above the 0.10% estimate and reversing the -0.10% contractions in November and October. This rebound signals a shift from contraction to expansion, driven by improved consumer spending and manufacturing stabilization. Looking ahead, the Bank of England may pause rate hikes as markets digest this positive momentum amid ongoing inflation and geopolitical risks. Updated 1/15/26

US Existing Home Sales for December 2025 surprised with a strong 4.35 million units, beating estimates of 4.21 million and rising 5.30% from November’s 4.13 million, signaling expansion in the housing market. This rebound follows a steady climb from October’s 4.06 million, reflecting improved affordability amid easing mortgage rates. Looking ahead, the Fed’s pause on rate hikes and stable financial conditions may sustain buyer interest, though affordability and geopolitical risks warrant close monitoring. Updated 1/14/26

US Existing Home Sales MoM for December 2025 surged 5.10%, sharply beating the -1.60% consensus and rising from November’s 0.50%. This strong rebound signals expansion in the housing market, reversing several months of sluggish growth and reflecting improved mortgage affordability. Looking ahead, easing mortgage rates and stable financial conditions may sustain momentum, though supply constraints and geopolitical risks warrant caution. Updated 1/14/26

The US Retail Sales MoM for December 2025 rose by 0.40%, matching estimates and rebounding from November’s -0.10% decline. This turnaround signals renewed consumer spending momentum after a brief contraction, indicating expansion in retail activity. Looking ahead, steady retail growth supports expectations of a balanced Federal Reserve policy and sustained economic resilience in early 2026. Updated 1/14/26

US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for December 2025 surprised with a stronger-than-expected 0.50% gain, beating the 0.40% consensus and improving on November’s 0.40% increase. This 0.10 percentage point rise signals continued expansion in consumer spending despite tighter monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainties. Looking ahead, sustained retail strength may influence the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to rate hikes and support market optimism in early 2026. Updated 1/14/26

The US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM for December 2025 rose 0.40%, beating the 0.10% estimate but slightly below November’s 0.50%. This 0.10 percentage point decline from November still signals expansion, reflecting steady consumer demand amid tightening financial conditions. Looking ahead, this resilient spending supports a cautious Fed stance on rate hikes and underpins moderate economic growth expectations. Updated 1/14/26

US Retail Sales YoY for December 2025 came in at 3.30%, beating the 3.00% estimate but down from November’s 3.50%, signaling a moderation in consumer spending growth. This deceleration from the prior month still indicates expansion, though at a slower pace compared to the mid-2025 peak of 5.20%. Market participants will watch for Fed policy moves balancing inflation control with growth, as geopolitical and fiscal uncertainties continue to weigh on retail momentum. Updated 1/14/26

China’s Exports YoY for December 2025 surprised with a 6.60% increase, beating the 3.00% estimate and rising from November’s 5.90%. This acceleration signals continued export expansion, supported by resilient global demand and accommodative monetary and fiscal policies. Looking ahead, policymakers are expected to maintain supportive measures amid geopolitical risks and supply chain uncertainties. Updated 1/14/26

China’s Imports YoY for December 2025 surged to 5.70%, sharply beating the 0.90% consensus and rising from November’s 1.90%. This rebound signals a clear expansion in import growth after a volatile 2025, with December’s figure well above the 12-month average of 1.50%. Looking ahead, sustained policy support and improving global demand should help maintain momentum, benefiting industrial sectors and commodity markets. Updated 1/14/26

China’s Balance of Trade for December 2025 came in at 808.80 billion CNY, slightly missing the consensus estimate of 820 billion but rising 2% from November’s 792.58 billion. This increase signals continued expansion in China’s external sector despite global uncertainties and tightening financial conditions. Looking ahead, stable monetary policy and targeted fiscal support should sustain trade momentum, though geopolitical risks warrant close monitoring. Updated 1/14/26

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 came in at 324.05, slightly beating the estimate of 323.80 but marginally below November’s 324.12. This near-flat month-over-month change signals a stable inflation environment, with headline inflation showing signs of moderation after October’s 324.80 peak. Market expectations point to continued Federal Reserve vigilance as inflation remains elevated but contained. Updated 1/13/26

The US Inflation Rate YoY for December 2025 came in at 2.70%, exactly matching both the consensus estimate and November’s reading. This unchanged rate from 2.70% in November signals a stabilization phase after a peak of 3.00% in October, indicating persistent but contained price pressures. Looking ahead, the steady inflation supports the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to monetary policy, with markets pricing in continued vigilance amid external risks. Updated 1/13/26

The US Core Inflation Rate YoY for December 2025 came in at 2.60%, matching November’s reading and slightly missing the 2.70% consensus estimate. This unchanged rate from the prior month signals a stable but persistent inflationary environment above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, indicating ongoing expansionary price pressures. Looking ahead, the Fed is likely to maintain its cautious monetary stance with elevated interest rates to anchor inflation expectations. Updated 1/13/26

The US CPI s.a for December 2025 came in at 326.03, slightly beating the consensus estimate of 325.70 and rising 0.31% from November’s 325.03, signaling persistent inflationary pressure. This steady month-over-month increase continues the upward trend from October’s 324.37, confirming ongoing expansion in consumer prices. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious tightening stance as markets price in prolonged restrictive policy amid stable but elevated inflation. Updated 1/13/26

The US Inflation Rate MoM for December 2025 came in at 0.30%, exactly matching consensus and holding steady from November’s 0.30%. This unchanged pace signals persistent inflationary pressures rather than contraction or expansion shifts, consistent with the ongoing trend since mid-2025. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its restrictive stance as core inflation components remain elevated, keeping markets cautious. Updated 1/13/26

The US Core Inflation Rate MoM for December 2025 came in at 0.20%, missing the 0.30% estimate but matching November’s 0.20% reading, signaling a steady inflation environment. This unchanged pace from the prior month suggests persistent price pressures without acceleration, consistent with a moderate expansion phase. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain cautious tightening as markets digest the steady inflation trend amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Updated 1/13/26

The UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY for December 2025 came in at 1.00%, beating the 0.60% estimate but down from November’s 1.20%, signaling a moderate slowdown in retail growth. This decline from 1.20% to 1.00% still indicates expansion, reflecting ongoing consumer resilience despite tighter monetary policy and inflation pressures. Looking ahead, market participants will watch Bank of England policy closely, as any easing could support retail momentum while further hikes risk dampening spending. Updated 1/13/26

Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence Change for December 2025 recorded a -1.70% decline, improving significantly from November’s -9.00% drop but missing the 2.60% estimate. This partial recovery signals a tentative stabilization in consumer sentiment, though confidence remains below the expansion threshold and reflects ongoing caution amid tighter monetary policy and inflation pressures. Looking ahead, market participants will closely watch inflation and labor data for signs of sustained improvement or further volatility. Updated 1/13/26

The US Michigan Consumer Sentiment for December 2025 surprised slightly to the upside with an actual reading of 54.00, beating the consensus estimate of 53.50. This marks a 2.10% increase from November’s 52.90, signaling a modest expansion in consumer confidence after several months of decline. Looking ahead, the cautious optimism reflected in this rebound may support moderate economic growth, though ongoing inflation and geopolitical risks warrant close monitoring. Updated 1/9/26

Canada’s Unemployment Rate for December 2025 rose to 6.80%, surpassing the 6.60% estimate and up from November’s 6.50%. This 0.30 percentage point increase signals emerging labor market softness amid ongoing monetary tightening and external headwinds. Looking ahead, the Bank of Canada may adopt a cautious stance on further rate hikes as markets price in slower growth and increased uncertainty. Updated 1/9/26

Canada’s Employment Change for December 2025 surprised with an actual increase of 8.20K jobs, well above the expected decline of 5.00K and sharply down from November’s 53.60K gain. This marks a significant slowdown in monthly job growth, signaling continued labor market expansion but with waning momentum. The Bank of Canada is likely to maintain its restrictive policy stance as employment growth moderates amid ongoing fiscal and external headwinds. Updated 1/9/26

The US Unemployment Rate for December 2025 came in at 4.40%, beating the consensus estimate of 4.50% and down from November’s 4.60%. This 0.20 percentage point decline signals renewed labor market strength after a slight uptick, indicating ongoing resilience despite tightening monetary policy. Looking ahead, this robust labor market may limit the Federal Reserve’s room to ease rates soon, supporting cautious optimism for economic growth in 2026. Updated 1/9/26

The US Non Farm Payrolls for December 2025 came in at 50,000, missing the 60,000 estimate and down from November’s 64,000. This decline signals a slowing but still expanding labor market amid tighter monetary policy and economic uncertainty. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious stance, balancing inflation control with the risk of further cooling in job growth. Updated 1/9/26

The US Nonfarm Payrolls Private for December 2025 came in at 37,000 jobs, missing the 64,000 consensus estimate and down sharply from November’s 69,000. This 46% month-over-month decline signals a clear slowdown in private sector job growth, reflecting ongoing labor market cooling amid tighter monetary policy. Looking ahead, the subdued payroll gains may temper Federal Reserve rate hike expectations and keep markets cautious on growth prospects. Updated 1/9/26

US Housing Starts for December 2025 came in at 1.31 million units, slightly missing the 1.33 million consensus and nearly unchanged from November’s 1.31 million. This 0.08% month-over-month decline signals a stable but subdued housing market amid ongoing monetary tightening. Looking ahead, persistent elevated mortgage rates and cautious builder sentiment suggest limited near-term growth, with regional strength in the South and West offering some offset. Updated 1/9/26

US Building Permits for December 2025 surged 6.40%, sharply beating the 0.80% estimate and reversing November’s -2.30% decline, signaling a strong expansion in residential construction activity. This rebound marks a clear inflection point after months of contraction, reflecting improved builder confidence amid tightening monetary policy and easing supply chain constraints. Looking ahead, sustained permit growth could support broader economic momentum, though risks from inflation and affordability challenges remain. Updated 1/9/26

The US U-6 Unemployment Rate for December 2025 came in at 8.40%, beating the 8.80% estimate and improving from November’s 8.70%. This 0.30 percentage point decline signals a modest easing of labor market slack after several months of elevated underemployment. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious monetary policy stance as the labor market shows tentative improvement amid persistent structural challenges. Updated 1/9/26

EU Retail Sales MoM for December 2025 surprised with a 0.20% increase, doubling the 0.10% estimate and reversing November’s -0.30% decline. This rebound signals a return to expansion after two months of contraction, reflecting cautious consumer confidence amid ongoing monetary tightening. Looking ahead, sustained wage growth and fiscal support may bolster spending, but inflation risks and geopolitical tensions could temper momentum. Updated 1/9/26

EU Retail Sales YoY for December 2025 surprised with a stronger-than-expected 2.30% growth, beating the 1.60% estimate and rising from November’s 1.50%. This acceleration signals expansion in consumer spending, rebounding sharply from October’s 1.00% and underscoring resilience despite tighter monetary conditions. Looking ahead, sustained retail momentum may support further ECB tightening, while markets remain attentive to inflation and labor data. Updated 1/9/26

Italy’s Retail Sales MoM for December 2025 surprised with a steady 0.50% increase, beating the 0.30% estimate and matching November’s pace. This follows contractions of -0.50% in November and -0.10% in October, signaling a stabilization in consumer spending after recent declines. Looking ahead, continued ECB tightening and cautious fiscal policy suggest retail growth will remain moderate, with markets responding positively to signs of resilience. Updated 1/9/26

Italy’s Retail Sales YoY for December 2025 came in at 1.30%, matching November’s 1.30% but missing the 1.50% estimate. This steady reading signals continued modest expansion compared to October’s 0.50%, reflecting a plateau after mid-2025 volatility. Looking ahead, subdued growth amid inflation pressures suggests the ECB will maintain a cautious monetary stance, with markets likely to remain sensitive to consumer spending trends. Updated 1/9/26

Switzerland’s December 2025 Unemployment Rate surprised to the upside at 3.10%, above the 2.90% estimate and prior month’s 2.90%. This 0.20 percentage point increase signals emerging labor market contraction after months of stability near 2.80–2.90%. Markets now anticipate cautious SNB policy adjustments amid rising unemployment pressures. Updated 1/9/26

Germany’s Balance of Trade for December 2025 surprised to the downside with an actual surplus of 13.10 billion EUR, missing the 16.50 billion estimate and falling from November’s 16.90 billion. This 22.50% month-over-month decline signals a clear contraction in trade momentum amid rising external headwinds. Looking ahead, continued ECB tightening and euro strength may pressure exports further, while fiscal support and easing inflation could provide limited relief. Updated 1/9/26

China’s Inflation Rate YoY for December 2025 came in at 0.80%, beating the previous month’s 0.70% but missing the 0.90% estimate. This 0.10 percentage point increase signals a gradual expansion in price pressures after months of near-zero or negative inflation. Looking ahead, the PBOC is expected to maintain accommodative policy as inflation remains well below target, supporting steady economic growth amid external uncertainties. Updated 1/9/26

The EU Unemployment Rate for December 2025 came in at 6.30%, beating the consensus estimate of 6.40% and down from November’s 6.40%. This 0.10 percentage point decline signals a modest improvement in labor market conditions, maintaining stability compared to October’s 6.30%. Looking ahead, the slight easing supports the ECB’s cautious stance on monetary policy amid ongoing structural challenges and geopolitical risks. Updated 1/8/26

The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 came in at 3.20%, down from November’s 3.40%, signaling a modest but clear deceleration in inflation. This 0.20 percentage point decline month-over-month reflects easing headline inflation, though core inflation remains elevated, indicating persistent underlying price pressures. Looking ahead, the Bank of England is expected to maintain a cautious monetary policy stance, balancing inflation control with growth risks amid ongoing geopolitical and fiscal uncertainties. Updated 1/8/26

Italy’s Unemployment Rate for December 2025 came in at 5.70%, beating the 6.00% estimate and improving from November’s 5.80%. This 0.10 percentage point decline signals a strengthening labor market and continued economic expansion. Looking ahead, the data supports expectations of steady growth but may complicate ECB policy as wage pressures persist. Updated 1/8/26

Australia’s Balance of Trade for December 2025 came in at AUD 2.94 billion, missing the AUD 4.90 billion estimate and down from November’s AUD 4.38 billion. This 33% decline from the prior month signals a clear slowdown in export strength amid softer commodity demand and rising imports. Looking ahead, the RBA may pause tightening as trade pressures mount, while markets remain cautious on AUD and commodity-linked equities. Updated 1/8/26

Canada’s Ivey PMI s.a for December 2025 surprised to the upside at 51.90, beating the 49.50 estimate and rising from November’s 48.40, signaling a return to modest expansion after two months of contraction. The 3.50-point increase reflects easing supply constraints and stronger domestic demand, though the reading remains below October’s robust 59.80. Looking ahead, the Bank of Canada is likely to maintain a cautious monetary stance, with markets watching for sustained PMI gains amid ongoing global uncertainties. Updated 1/7/26

The US JOLTs Job Openings for December 2025 came in at 7.15 million, missing the 7.60 million estimate and down from November’s 7.67 million. This 6.80% month-over-month decline signals a moderation in labor demand but still reflects a historically elevated level of openings. Looking ahead, the data suggests the Federal Reserve may continue its cautious approach to rate hikes as the labor market cools without collapsing. Updated 1/7/26

The US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for December 2025 surprised to the upside at 54.40, beating the 52.20 consensus and rising from November’s 52.60 reading. This 1.80-point increase signals a stronger expansion in the services sector, marking the highest level since March 2025 and highlighting resilient domestic demand despite tighter monetary policy. Looking ahead, this robust momentum may sustain Fed tightening expectations and support cyclical sectors, though risks from inflation and external shocks remain. Updated 1/7/26

The US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices index for December 2025 came in at 64.30, missing the consensus estimate of 64.90 and down from November’s 65.40. This 1.10-point decline signals a moderation in input cost pressures within the services sector, though the reading remains well above the 50 threshold, indicating ongoing inflationary expansion. Looking ahead, the data supports expectations of continued Federal Reserve caution, with markets likely to remain sensitive to inflation trends as 2026 unfolds. Updated 1/7/26

The US ISM Services PMI for December 2025 surprised to the upside at 54.40, beating the 52.30 estimate and rising from November’s 52.60. This 1.80-point increase signals a stronger expansion in the service sector, reflecting robust demand despite tightening monetary policy. Looking ahead, this momentum may sustain economic growth and complicate the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight in early 2026. Updated 1/7/26

The US ADP Employment Change for December 2025 came in at 41,000 jobs, missing the 47,000 consensus but sharply rebounding from November’s -32,000 job loss. This marks a return to expansion after two months of contraction, signaling cautious stabilization in the labor market. Looking ahead, the modest gain supports the Federal Reserve’s balanced approach to monetary tightening amid ongoing economic uncertainties. Updated 1/7/26

Italy’s Inflation Rate YoY for December 2025 came in at 1.20%, beating the 1.10% estimate and rising from November’s 1.10%, signaling a modest expansion in inflationary pressures. This 0.10 percentage point increase interrupts the recent easing trend and suggests persistent underlying price momentum. Looking ahead, the ECB is likely to maintain a cautious stance on monetary policy as external risks and inflation stickiness continue to influence market expectations. Updated 1/7/26

The EU Inflation Rate YoY for December 2025 came in at 2.00%, matching consensus but down from November’s 2.10%, signaling a mild easing in inflationary pressures. This decline from October’s 2.20% suggests a stabilization near the ECB’s 2% target, indicating a balanced inflation environment. Looking ahead, the ECB is likely to maintain its cautious policy stance, with markets expecting steady rates amid moderate growth and subdued inflation risks. Updated 1/7/26

Germany’s Baden Wuerttemberg CPI MoM for December 2025 surprised with a 0.20% increase, reversing November’s -0.30% decline. This rebound signals a return to moderate inflation growth after a brief contraction, consistent with ongoing price stability pressures. Looking ahead, the ECB is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent approach as markets price in steady but subdued inflation dynamics. Updated 1/7/26

Germany’s Baden Wuerttemberg CPI YoY for December 2025 came in at 1.90%, down from 2.30% in November, marking a notable inflation slowdown. This 0.40 percentage point decline signals easing price pressures in the region, consistent with a cooling inflation environment. The moderation supports expectations for a more cautious ECB policy stance, with markets likely to price in fewer aggressive rate hikes. Updated 1/7/26

Germany’s Bavaria CPI MoM for December 2025 came in at 0.00%, surprising with a stabilization after November’s -0.20% decline. This flat reading signals a pause in deflationary pressures, contrasting with the prior month’s contraction and indicating a potential bottoming out of regional price declines. Looking ahead, the data supports a cautious ECB stance with no immediate rate hikes expected, while markets remain alert to external risks that could shift inflation dynamics. Updated 1/7/26

Germany’s Bavaria CPI YoY for December 2025 came in at 1.70%, down from 2.20% in November, marking a sharper-than-expected cooling in inflation. This 0.50 percentage point decline signals easing price pressures after a sustained plateau, reflecting the impact of monetary tightening and improved supply conditions. Looking ahead, the moderation supports expectations of a cautious ECB stance, though geopolitical and energy risks keep inflation outlooks uncertain. Updated 1/7/26

Germany’s Unemployment Rate for December 2025 held steady at 6.30%, exactly matching both the estimate and November’s reading. This unchanged rate from 6.30% signals continued labor market stagnation, reflecting neither expansion nor contraction. Looking ahead, policymakers are likely to maintain a cautious stance balancing inflation control with support for employment amid persistent structural challenges. Updated 1/7/26

Germany’s Employment Change for December 2025 rose by 3,000 jobs, missing the 5,000 estimate but improving from November’s 1,000 gain. This MoM increase signals continued labor market expansion after October’s contraction of 1,000 jobs, though growth remains below the 12-month average of roughly 7,000 jobs. Looking ahead, slower employment gains support the ECB’s cautious monetary stance amid geopolitical risks and market volatility. Updated 1/7/26

Germany’s Retail Sales MoM for December 2025 surprised to the downside with an actual decline of -0.60%, missing the 0.20% estimate and worsening from November’s -0.30%. This marks the third consecutive monthly contraction, signaling persistent consumer caution and ongoing retail sector weakness. Looking ahead, continued ECB tightening and geopolitical risks suggest subdued spending, likely pressuring growth and market sentiment in early 2026. Updated 1/7/26

Germany’s Retail Sales YoY for December 2025 came in at 1.10%, missing the 1.20% estimate but rising from November’s 0.90%. This 0.20 percentage point increase from the prior month signals a modest expansion in consumer spending after October’s weak 0.20% growth. Looking ahead, subdued growth amid ECB tightening and geopolitical risks suggests cautious retail momentum, with market participants closely watching policy and inflation developments. Updated 1/7/26

Australia’s CPI for December 2025 surged 3.40% MoM, far exceeding the 0.20% estimate and prior 0.30% reading. This sharp 3.10 percentage point increase signals a strong expansion in inflationary pressures, reversing the subdued trend from October and November. The unexpected spike is likely to prompt the RBA to reconsider its pause on rate hikes, with markets already pricing in tighter monetary policy. Updated 1/7/26

Germany’s Inflation Rate YoY for December 2025 came in at 1.80%, missing the 2.00% estimate and down from November’s 2.30%, signaling a notable easing in price pressures. This 0.50 percentage point decline from the prior month suggests a contraction in inflation momentum, reversing the stable plateau seen since September. Looking ahead, the ECB may adopt a more cautious approach to rate hikes as markets adjust to slower inflation growth. Updated 1/6/26

Germany’s Brandenburg CPI MoM for December 2025 surged 0.40%, reversing November’s -0.20% decline and matching October’s peak. This sharp 0.60 percentage point rebound signals renewed inflationary pressure after a brief contraction, exceeding the six-month average of roughly 0.10%. Looking ahead, the ECB is likely to maintain cautious tightening as markets price in persistent inflation risks amid geopolitical and fiscal uncertainties. Updated 1/6/26

Germany’s Brandenburg CPI YoY for December 2025 came in at 2.20%, down from 2.60% in November, marking a notable easing in inflation pressures. This 0.40 percentage point decline breaks a four-month plateau near 2.60%, signaling a moderation in cost dynamics but still above the ECB’s 2% target. The data supports expectations of a cautious ECB stance with potential rate pause, while markets responded positively with modest EUR/USD gains and lower bund yields. Updated 1/6/26

Germany’s Hesse CPI MoM for December 2025 surprised with a 0.10% rise, rebounding from November’s -0.20% contraction. This shift signals a tentative return to inflationary pressures after a brief dip, though the figure remains below the 0.25% average of recent months. Looking ahead, the modest increase supports expectations of cautious ECB policy adjustments amid ongoing geopolitical and energy market uncertainties. Updated 1/6/26

Germany’s Hesse CPI YoY for December 2025 came in at 2.20%, missing the prior month’s 2.50% and signaling a clear moderation in inflation. This 0.30 percentage point decline from November indicates easing price pressures but inflation remains above the ECB’s 2% target, suggesting ongoing restrictive monetary policy. Market participants should expect continued ECB vigilance amid persistent core inflation and geopolitical risks. Updated 1/6/26

Germany’s North Rhine Westphalia CPI YoY for December 2025 came in at 1.80%, down from 2.30% in November, marking a notable moderation in inflation. This 0.50 percentage point decline signals easing inflationary pressures after a three-month plateau, driven largely by falling energy costs and softer core goods inflation. The data supports expectations that the ECB will likely pause rate hikes in early 2026, though geopolitical risks and wage growth remain key factors to monitor. Updated 1/6/26

Germany’s North Rhine Westphalia CPI MoM for December 2025 surprised with a flat 0.00% reading, reversing November’s -0.30% decline. This stabilization signals a pause in inflationary contraction after a volatile autumn, indicating easing price pressures in the region. The data supports a cautious Bundesbank stance on further tightening, with markets pricing in a slower pace of ECB hikes. Updated 1/6/26

Germany’s Saxony CPI MoM for December 2025 surprised with a 0.20% increase, rebounding from November’s -0.20% contraction. This shift signals a return to mild inflationary pressure after a brief deflationary period, following October’s 0.30% rise and indicating moderate expansion. Looking ahead, persistent inflation above the ECB’s monthly target suggests cautious monetary tightening may continue as markets price in further rate adjustments. Updated 1/6/26

Germany’s Saxony CPI YoY for December 2025 came in at 1.90%, missing the prior month’s 2.20% and signaling a clear deceleration in inflation pressures. This 0.30 percentage point decline from November reflects easing cost pressures and suggests a moderation in regional price growth. Looking ahead, the ECB may adopt a more cautious monetary policy stance as inflation nears but remains just below its 2% target. Updated 1/6/26

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for December 2025 came in at 47.90, missing the consensus estimate of 48.30 and down from November’s 48.20, signaling a continued contraction in manufacturing activity. This marks the fourth consecutive month below the 50 expansion threshold, reflecting ongoing sector weakness amid tighter financial conditions and geopolitical uncertainties. Looking ahead, persistent headwinds may keep manufacturing subdued, prompting cautious market sentiment and close Fed monitoring of economic momentum. Updated 1/5/26

Switzerland’s procure.ch Manufacturing PMI for December 2025 sharply missed expectations, falling to 45.80 versus the 49.90 consensus. This represents a 3.90-point decline from November’s 49.70, signaling a clear return to contraction territory after a brief stabilization. The renewed weakness amid global headwinds and tighter financial conditions suggests cautious market sentiment and potential pressure on industrial growth in early 2026. Updated 1/5/26

Spain’s Employment Change for December 2025 showed a smaller-than-expected decline of -16.30K jobs, beating the -20.00K consensus and improving from November’s -18.80K loss. This moderation signals a slowing contraction in the labor market after several volatile months, though job losses persist. Looking ahead, the ECB’s restrictive policy and external risks suggest continued cautious hiring, with markets reacting positively to the softer decline. Updated 1/5/26

Switzerland’s Retail Sales MoM for December 2025 matched expectations at 0.10%, sharply down from November’s 0.70% gain, signaling a marked slowdown in consumer spending momentum. This modest increase points to cautious retail expansion amid tightening monetary policy and external uncertainties. Looking ahead, the subdued growth supports the Swiss National Bank’s continued tightening bias, with markets pricing in further rate hikes and a cautious outlook for domestic demand. Updated 1/5/26

Switzerland’s Retail Sales YoY for December 2025 came in at 2.30%, missing the 2.50% estimate and down from November’s 2.70%. This deceleration from the prior month signals a moderation in consumer spending growth, though it remains above October’s 1.50%, indicating ongoing expansion. Looking ahead, the SNB’s cautious monetary stance and external uncertainties suggest retail sales will likely stabilize near current levels in early 2026. Updated 1/5/26

Greece’s Retail Sales YoY for November 2025 surged to 4.20%, sharply beating the -1.10% estimate and reversing October’s -1.70% contraction. This 5.90 percentage point rebound signals a strong expansion in consumer spending after two months of decline. Looking ahead, sustained retail momentum amid ECB tightening and fiscal consolidation will be key to Greece’s growth and inflation outlook. Updated 12/31/25

China's Manufacturing PMI for December 2025 surprised with a reading of 50.10, beating the consensus estimate of 49.90 and rising from November's 49.20. This 0.90-point increase signals a return to modest expansion after months of contraction below the 50 threshold. Looking ahead, the rebound supports steady monetary policy and suggests cautious optimism for industrial growth amid ongoing external uncertainties. Updated 12/31/25

China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI for December 2025 surprised with an actual reading of 50.10, beating the consensus estimate of 49.20 and rising from November’s 49.20, signaling a return to modest expansion after nine months of contraction. The 0.90-point increase month-over-month reflects improving manufacturing conditions supported by policy easing and stabilizing domestic demand. Looking ahead, cautious optimism prevails as policymakers balance growth support with external risks, with the manufacturing sector’s trajectory critical for China’s early 2026 economic outlook. Updated 12/31/25

China’s NBS Non Manufacturing PMI for November 2025 surprised with a 50.20 reading, beating the consensus estimate of 49.80 and reversing October’s contraction at 49.50. The 0.70-point increase signals a return to expansion in the services and construction sectors after a brief dip below 50. Looking ahead, this modest recovery supports expectations for continued cautious monetary easing and targeted fiscal stimulus to sustain growth. Updated 12/31/25

ES Retail Sales MoM for November 2025 surprised with a 1.00% increase, well above the 0.40% estimate and reversing October’s flat 0.00% reading. This strong rebound signals expansion in consumer spending after two months of stagnation, highlighting renewed momentum ahead of the holiday season. Looking forward, the data supports expectations of moderate Q4 GDP growth, though policymakers remain cautious amid external risks and tightening fiscal conditions. Updated 12/30/25

Spain’s Retail Sales YoY for November 2025 surged to 6.00%, well above the 3.60% estimate and up from October’s 3.80%, signaling strong expansion in consumer spending. This sharp acceleration reverses a recent slowdown and highlights resilient demand despite tighter ECB monetary policy. Looking ahead, sustained retail growth may pressure inflation, prompting cautious ECB tightening and influencing market sentiment. Updated 12/30/25

The US GDP Growth Rate QoQ for November 2025 surprised markets by rising to 4.30%, beating the 3.30% estimate and accelerating from October’s 3.80%. This 0.50 percentage point increase signals strong economic expansion and momentum heading into 2026. Looking ahead, the robust print may delay Federal Reserve rate cuts as markets weigh sustained growth against inflation risks. Updated 12/23/25

The US Gross Domestic Product QoQ for November 2025 surged to 4.30%, beating the 3.30% estimate and rising from October’s 3.80%. This sharp acceleration signals strong economic expansion driven by resilient consumer spending and inventory rebuilding. Looking ahead, markets expect continued Fed vigilance as robust growth complicates the inflation outlook. Updated 12/23/25

The US GDP Growth Rate QoQ for November 2025 surprised markets by rising to 4.30%, beating the 3.30% estimate and accelerating from October’s 3.80%. This 0.50 percentage point increase signals strong economic expansion and momentum heading into 2026. Looking ahead, the robust print may delay Federal Reserve rate cuts as markets weigh sustained growth against inflation risks. Updated 12/23/25

The US Gross Domestic Product QoQ for November 2025 surged to 4.30%, beating the 3.30% estimate and rising from October’s 3.80%. This sharp acceleration signals strong economic expansion driven by resilient consumer spending and inventory rebuilding. Looking ahead, markets expect continued Fed vigilance as robust growth complicates the inflation outlook. Updated 12/23/25