Latest updates

Mexico’s Consumer Confidence for November 2025 came in at 46.10, missing the consensus estimate of 46.90 and down from October’s 46.50. This 0.40-point decline keeps the index below the neutral 50 threshold, signaling continued contraction and cautious consumer sentiment. Looking ahead, persistent inflation and Banxico’s restrictive policy suggest subdued spending growth, with market participants closely watching for any shifts in monetary or fiscal stance. Updated 11/5/25

The EU Gross Domestic Product QoQ came in at 0.20%, matching consensus and doubling the previous quarter’s 0.10% growth. This steady expansion signals ongoing economic recovery, with growth stabilizing after mid-year volatility and remaining above contraction territory. Looking ahead, the ECB is likely to maintain its cautious monetary stance as geopolitical risks and inflation dynamics continue to influence the outlook. Updated 11/14/25

France’s Industrial Production MoM rose 0.80% in November 2025, beating the 0.10% estimate and reversing October’s -0.90% contraction. This sharp rebound signals expansion after three months of decline, suggesting a tentative stabilization in manufacturing activity. Looking ahead, sustained growth depends on ECB policy and global demand amid ongoing geopolitical and financial risks. Updated 11/5/25

France’s Balance of Trade for October 2025 came in at -5.50 B EUR, narrowly beating the estimate of -5.20 B EUR and improving from September’s -5.70 B EUR. This 0.20 billion euro contraction in the deficit signals a modest stabilization in external balances after mid-year peaks near -8 billion. Looking ahead, continued export strength and easing energy costs may support further deficit narrowing, though geopolitical risks and ECB policy tightening remain key uncertainties. Updated 10/7/25

Germany’s Factory Orders MoM for November 2025 surprised with a 1.10% increase, beating the 1.00% estimate and reversing October’s -0.80% contraction. This positive shift signals expansion in industrial demand after several months of volatility, including a sharp -7.00% drop in March. Looking ahead, the rebound supports cautious optimism for sustained growth amid easing supply chain pressures, though geopolitical risks and policy uncertainty remain key factors. Updated 11/5/25

The UK House Price Index MoM for November 2025 posted a surprising decline of -1.80%, reversing the prior 0.30% increase and signaling contraction in the housing market. This sharp drop reflects tightening financial conditions and elevated mortgage costs, marking the steepest monthly fall since August. Looking ahead, continued monetary tightening and fiscal constraints suggest further pressure on house prices, with market participants closely watching policy signals. Updated 11/17/25

The UK House Price Index YoY for November 2025 came in at 2.60%, missing the 3.00% consensus and down from the previous 3.00% reading. This slowdown signals a moderation in price growth but remains above the long-term average, indicating continued expansion in the housing market. Looking ahead, persistent monetary tightening and supply constraints suggest moderate growth with potential downside risks if affordability pressures intensify. Updated 11/19/25

India’s Interest Rate Decision surprised markets by matching the expected cut to 5.25%, down from 5.50%, signaling a shift from tightening to a more neutral monetary stance. This 25 basis point reduction reflects easing inflation pressures and supports expansionary conditions amid moderating growth forecasts. Looking ahead, the RBI’s data-dependent approach suggests cautious further easing if inflation continues to decline, while external risks may limit aggressive cuts. Updated 12/5/25

India’s RBI Interest Rate Decision surprised markets with a cut to 5.25%, matching estimates but down from the previous 5.50%. This 25 basis point reduction signals a shift from tightening to a cautiously accommodative stance amid easing inflation and resilient growth. Looking ahead, the RBI is likely to maintain a data-dependent approach, balancing inflation risks and external uncertainties while supporting economic expansion. Updated 12/5/25

The Philippines’ Inflation Rate YoY for December 2025 came in at 1.50%, missing the 1.60% consensus and down from 1.70% in the prior two months. This 0.20 percentage point decline signals continued price moderation and a contraction in inflationary pressures. Looking ahead, the BSP is likely to maintain its accommodative policy stance while monitoring external risks, as the PHP modestly strengthened post-release. Updated 12/5/25

Japan’s Household Spending YoY for December 2025 plunged to -2.90%, missing the 1.00% estimate and reversing the prior 1.80% gain. This sharp contraction signals a clear downturn in consumer demand after months of modest expansion, reflecting rising inflation and geopolitical risks. Market focus will remain on the Bank of Japan’s policy moves as tighter monetary conditions threaten to further dampen spending. Updated 12/5/25

Japan’s Household Spending MoM for December 2025 contracted sharply by -3.50%, missing the 0.70% consensus and deepening the prior month’s -0.70% decline, signaling continued contraction. This marks the steepest monthly drop since August’s -5.20%, reflecting heightened consumer caution amid tightening financial conditions. Looking ahead, persistent downside risks suggest that policy support and geopolitical developments will be critical to stabilizing demand in early 2026. Updated 12/5/25

Brazil’s Balance of Trade for December 2025 surprised with a surplus of BRL 5.84 billion, beating the estimate of BRL 5.70 billion but down from November’s BRL 6.57 billion. This 11.10% month-on-month decline still signals sustained external demand, as the surplus remains above the 12-month average of BRL 5.20 billion. Looking ahead, the Central Bank of Brazil is expected to maintain a cautious monetary stance, supported by stable trade dynamics amid global uncertainties. Updated 12/4/25

The US Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q4 2025 came in at 3.80%, slightly missing the 3.90% consensus and down from the previous 3.90% reading, signaling continued expansion but at a moderating pace. This modest 0.10 percentage point decline reflects a cooling after a peak of 4.20% in mid-November, consistent with tightening financial conditions and softer consumer spending. Looking ahead, markets anticipate sustained Fed rate hikes to balance growth and inflation risks, with GDP growth expected to moderate further in early 2026. Updated 12/4/25

Canada’s December 2025 PMI plunged to 44.50, missing expectations and signaling a sharp contraction in manufacturing activity. This marks a steep decline from November’s 51.70, breaking a six-month expansion streak and highlighting weakening demand and rising input costs. The Bank of Canada may face increased pressure to ease monetary policy amid recession fears and market volatility. Updated 12/4/25

US Factory Orders MoM rose 0.20% in December 2025, missing the 0.50% consensus and down sharply from November’s 1.40% gain. This modest increase signals ongoing but slowing expansion in manufacturing amid tighter financial conditions and persistent external risks. Looking ahead, the subdued growth supports expectations of cautious Fed policy and suggests industrial sectors may face continued volatility. Updated 12/4/25

Brazil’s GDP Growth Rate QoQ for Q4 2025 came in at 0.10%, missing the 0.20% consensus and down from 0.40% in Q3, signaling a clear deceleration in economic expansion. This slowdown from the previous quarter’s growth reflects ongoing monetary tightening and external headwinds, with the rate still positive but markedly subdued. Looking ahead, cautious market sentiment and fiscal constraints suggest limited near-term stimulus, though structural reforms and commodity strength could support a moderate rebound. Updated 12/4/25

Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product QoQ came in at 0.10%, missing the 0.20% estimate and slowing sharply from 0.30% in Q3. This marks the weakest quarterly expansion in a year, signaling a cautious growth environment amid subdued domestic demand and investment contraction. Looking ahead, the Central Bank is likely to maintain its accommodative yet vigilant stance, while fiscal pressures and external risks keep market sentiment muted. Updated 12/4/25

Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product YoY growth for December 2025 came in at 1.80%, missing the consensus estimate of 1.70% but marking a notable slowdown from the previous 2.40%. This deceleration signals continued economic expansion, albeit at a more moderate pace amid tighter monetary policy and external headwinds. Looking ahead, the Central Bank is likely to maintain a cautious stance on interest rates as structural reforms and commodity price trends shape Brazil’s growth trajectory. Updated 12/4/25

Brazil’s GDP Growth Rate YoY came in at 1.80%, slightly above the 1.70% estimate but down from 2.20% in the previous quarter, indicating a clear deceleration in economic expansion. This slowdown from the prior 2.20% reading signals moderated growth momentum amid ongoing monetary tightening and fiscal constraints. Looking ahead, policymakers face the challenge of balancing inflation control with growth support as external risks and subdued domestic demand persist. Updated 12/4/25

The UK S&P Global Construction PMI for December 2025 came in at 39.40, significantly missing the consensus estimate of 48.00 and dropping sharply from November’s 44.10, signaling a pronounced contraction in the sector. This decline below the 50 threshold marks the lowest reading since early 2025, reflecting intensifying pressures from tighter financial conditions and subdued demand. Looking ahead, continued monetary tightening and geopolitical risks suggest the sector may remain under strain into 2026 unless fiscal stimulus or supply chain improvements materialize. Updated 12/4/25

Turkey’s Balance of Trade for November 2025 came in at -7.80 billion TRY, beating the consensus estimate of -8.30 billion TRY but worsening from the previous -7.60 billion TRY, signaling a continued expansion of the trade deficit. This 2.60% increase from October reflects persistent external pressures and elevated import costs amid a weakening TRY. Looking ahead, market participants will closely watch export recovery and geopolitical developments as key factors influencing Turkey’s external balance and currency stability. Updated 12/4/25

Sweden’s December 2025 CPI rose 0.30%, missing the 0.60% estimate and down sharply from 0.90% in November. This slowdown signals a moderation in inflation momentum, consistent with easing energy prices and subdued demand, indicating a less expansionary inflation environment. The Riksbank is likely to maintain a cautious policy stance, balancing inflation control with growth support amid persistent core inflation. Updated 12/4/25

The US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change reported a surprising build of 4.52 million barrels, well above the consensus estimate of 1.50 million. This marks a 2.00 million barrel increase from the previous 2.51 million, signaling a strong inventory expansion. Elevated stocks amid subdued demand and refinery maintenance suggest continued pressure on gasoline prices and refining margins in the near term. Updated 12/3/25

Russia’s Gross Domestic Product YoY growth of 1.60% in November 2025 notably exceeded the previous 0.90%, signaling clear economic expansion. This 0.70 percentage point increase reflects strengthening industrial output and consumer spending, confirming a positive inflection after months of subdued growth. Looking ahead, steady commodity prices and cautious monetary policy at 7.50% suggest moderate but sustained growth amid ongoing geopolitical risks. Updated 12/3/25

Russia’s Unemployment Rate for December 2025 held steady at 2.20%, matching both consensus and the previous reading, signaling a stable labor market. This unchanged rate from 2.20% in October and November indicates continued economic resilience and a tight labor market below the 12-month average of 2.30%. Looking ahead, this stability supports the Bank of Russia’s cautious monetary policy stance amid geopolitical uncertainties and suggests steady market confidence. Updated 12/3/25

ES Consumer Confidence for December 2025 missed expectations, registering 78.70 versus the estimated 81.00 and down from 81.50 last month. This 3.50-point decline signals a contraction in consumer sentiment, reflecting rising inflation pressures and energy price volatility. Looking ahead, cautious monetary policy and geopolitical risks may continue to weigh on consumption and market sentiment. Updated 12/3/25

The US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change reported a build of 0.57 million barrels, missing the consensus estimate of a 0.80 million draw and falling sharply from the previous 2.77 million barrel increase. This slowdown in inventory accumulation signals a tightening supply environment compared to recent volatility, as the build is well below the 12-month average weekly change of approximately 1.20 million barrels. Looking ahead, this subdued build amid geopolitical risks and cautious demand growth supports a balanced monetary policy stance and suggests potential upward pressure on oil prices, influencing energy equities and USD pairs. Updated 12/3/25

The US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment index for December 2025 rose to 48.90 from 48.20 in November, slightly beating expectations but still signaling contraction below the 50 threshold. This 0.70-point increase marks the third consecutive month of sub-50 readings, indicating ongoing weakness yet modest stabilization in service sector hiring. Looking ahead, persistent monetary tightening and geopolitical risks suggest cautious labor market conditions, with limited upside for near-term employment growth. Updated 12/3/25

The US Industrial Production MoM for December 2025 came in at 0.10%, matching consensus and reversing November’s -0.30% decline. This modest increase signals a cautious expansion in industrial output after recent volatility. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a balanced policy stance amid subdued growth and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Updated 12/3/25

Poland’s Interest Rate Decision matched consensus at 4.00%, down from 4.25% previously, marking the third consecutive cut since September. This 25 basis point reduction continues to signal a cautious easing stance amid moderating inflation and slowing GDP growth. Market focus now shifts to how persistent core inflation and external risks will shape the central bank’s policy path in 2026. Updated 12/3/25

The US Export Prices MoM for December 2025 came in at 0.00%, missing the 0.10% consensus estimate and signaling a pause after November’s 0.10% gain. This flat reading marks a stabilization phase following volatile mid-year spikes, reflecting subdued global demand and a stronger US dollar limiting export price growth. Looking ahead, export prices may see modest gains if global demand recovers, but risks from geopolitical tensions and further USD strength could weigh on exporters. Updated 12/3/25

The US Import Prices MoM for December 2025 came in at 0.00%, missing the 0.10% consensus and matching the previous month’s 0.10% rise. This flat reading signals a pause in imported inflation pressures after several months of modest expansion, reflecting stabilization in energy and non-energy goods prices. Looking ahead, the data supports a cautious Federal Reserve stance with potential for slower rate hikes amid balanced inflation risks. Updated 12/3/25

Brazil’s S&P Global Services PMI surprised with a rise to 50.10, beating the 48.00 estimate and signaling expansion after five months below 50. This 2.40-point increase from November’s 47.70 marks a tentative recovery in the services sector, supported by easing inflation and stable monetary policy. Looking ahead, sustained growth depends on managing fiscal constraints and external risks, with market sentiment cautiously optimistic. Updated 12/3/25

The US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate came in at 6.32%, slightly below last week’s 6.40%, signaling a modest easing in borrowing costs amid persistent affordability challenges. This 0.08 percentage point decline continues a downward trend from the October peak of 6.46%, reflecting softer Treasury yields and stable inflation expectations. Looking ahead, the Fed’s likely pause in rate hikes supports a stable mortgage rate environment near 6.30%, which may bolster housing demand if inflation remains contained. Updated 12/3/25

South Africa’s Business Confidence for December 2025 came in at 44, beating the consensus estimate of 37 and rising from November’s 39. This 12.82% increase signals a cautious recovery, though the index remains below the 50 threshold that indicates expansion. Looking ahead, sustained gains depend on stable inflation, cautious monetary policy, and successful fiscal reforms amid ongoing structural challenges. Updated 12/3/25

The EU PMI for December 2025 surprised on the upside with an actual reading of 52.80, beating the consensus estimate of 52.40. This marks a 0.30-point increase from November’s 52.50, signaling continued expansion in the EU economy. Looking ahead, the steady growth supports the ECB’s cautious policy stance, though geopolitical risks may temper momentum. Updated 12/3/25

The EU Services PMI for December 2025 came in at 53.60, beating the consensus estimate of 53.10 and signaling stronger-than-expected expansion. This marks a 0.50-point increase from November’s 53.00, confirming sustained growth above the 50 threshold amid ongoing geopolitical and monetary challenges. Looking ahead, the resilient services sector may support cautious ECB policy decisions, with markets closely watching inflation and external risks. Updated 12/3/25

Germany’s Services PMI for December 2025 came in at 53.10, beating the consensus estimate of 52.70 but down from November’s 54.60, signaling continued expansion at a slower pace. The 1.50-point decline month-on-month suggests moderating growth, though the reading remains above the 50 threshold and the 12-month average of 51.90, reflecting sector resilience. Looking ahead, the data supports expectations of a cautious ECB policy stance amid persistent inflation and geopolitical risks. Updated 12/3/25

France’s Services PMI surged to 51.40 in December, beating the consensus estimate of 50.80 and marking a sharp rebound from November’s 48.00, signaling a return to expansion after four months of contraction. This 3.40-point increase reflects stronger client demand and easing input cost pressures, suggesting renewed momentum in the services sector. Looking ahead, the data supports a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2026, with potential easing of ECB rate hikes if growth stabilizes. Updated 12/3/25

Italy’s Services PMI rose to 55.00 in December, beating the 53.90 estimate and marking a 1.00 point increase from November’s 54.00, signaling continued expansion. This reading is the highest since March 2025 and reflects robust growth in the services sector amid easing financial conditions. Looking ahead, stable ECB policy and improving domestic demand should support sustained momentum, though external risks warrant close monitoring. Updated 12/3/25

Spain’s December 2025 Services PMI for ES came in at 55.60, missing the consensus estimate of 56.30 and down from November’s 56.60. This 1.00 point decline still signals expansion but indicates a moderation in service sector growth amid tighter monetary policy and inflationary pressures. Looking ahead, the slowdown suggests cautious market sentiment and supports expectations of continued ECB tightening into early 2026. Updated 12/3/25

Switzerland’s Inflation Rate YoY for December 2025 came in at 0.00%, missing the 0.10% consensus and down from 0.10% in November. This decline signals a pause in inflationary expansion, reflecting stable prices and subdued demand pressures. Looking ahead, the SNB is expected to maintain its cautious monetary stance amid low inflation, with markets pricing in prolonged subdued price growth. Updated 12/3/25

Switzerland’s December CPI came in at 0.00%, missing the 0.10% estimate and matching November’s zero print after a -0.30% drop in October. This flat reading signals a pause in deflationary pressure, indicating a neutral inflation environment with no expansion or contraction in price levels. The Swiss National Bank is likely to maintain its cautious policy stance amid subdued inflation and global uncertainties. Updated 12/3/25

Turkey’s December 2025 CPI came in at 31.07%, below the 31.60% consensus estimate, signaling a notable inflation moderation. This marks a decline from November’s 32.87%, indicating easing price pressures but inflation remains historically elevated. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is likely to maintain cautious tightening amid persistent core inflation and external risks. Updated 12/3/25

Turkey’s December Inflation Rate MoM came in at 0.87%, sharply missing the 1.25% estimate and down from November’s 2.55%, signaling a clear contraction in monthly inflation pressures. This marks the lowest monthly increase since February 2025’s 5.03%, reflecting easing demand and effective monetary tightening. Looking ahead, the subdued inflation pace supports continued cautious policy normalization, though external risks warrant close monitoring. Updated 12/3/25

Turkey’s Inflation Rate YoY for December 2025 came in at 31.07%, beating the consensus estimate of 31.60% and down from November’s 32.87%. This six-month consecutive decline signals a gradual easing of inflationary pressures, though the rate remains elevated well above the 50 threshold for expansion in economic activity. Looking ahead, the CBRT’s sustained high policy rates and fiscal discipline are expected to support continued disinflation, but structural challenges and external risks may slow progress. Updated 12/3/25

China’s December Caixin Services PMI came in at 52.10, slightly above the 52.00 consensus but down from November’s 52.60, indicating continued expansion at a moderated pace. The 0.50-point decline signals a cooling in service sector growth, though the reading remains above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. Looking ahead, accommodative monetary policy and cautious fiscal measures suggest steady but restrained growth amid external uncertainties. Updated 12/3/25

Australia’s Gross Domestic Product QoQ for Q4 2025 came in at 0.40%, missing the 0.70% consensus and down from 0.60% in Q3, signaling a clear deceleration in growth momentum. This slowdown reflects cooling domestic demand amid tighter monetary policy, with GDP growth still positive but below the 12-month average of 0.45%. Looking ahead, the RBA may pause rate hikes as inflation pressures ease, while markets remain cautious, pricing in modest growth and external risks. Updated 12/3/25

Australia’s Gross Domestic Product YoY growth for December 2025 came in at 2.10%, slightly missing the 2.20% estimate but up from 1.80% in September, indicating ongoing economic expansion. This 0.30 percentage point increase signals a steady recovery phase supported by resilient services and commodity sectors. Looking ahead, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to maintain a cautious monetary policy stance amid moderate inflation and external risks. Updated 12/3/25

Australia’s GDP Growth Rate YoY for AU came in at 2.10%, slightly missing the 2.20% estimate but up from 1.80% previously, signaling continued economic expansion. This 0.30 percentage point increase from the prior reading confirms a rebound from mid-2024 lows and reflects strengthening domestic demand and exports. Looking ahead, the RBA is expected to maintain a cautious monetary policy stance amid inflation risks and global uncertainties. Updated 12/3/25

Japan’s Jibun Bank Services PMI for December 2025 came in at 53.20, slightly beating the consensus estimate of 53.10 and edging up from November’s 53.10, signaling continued expansion in the services sector. This marks the third consecutive month above 53, reflecting steady growth momentum despite global uncertainties and moderate inflation pressures. Looking ahead, the stable PMI supports the Bank of Japan’s cautious monetary policy stance, with markets pricing in steady growth amid geopolitical risks. Updated 12/3/25

The US API Crude Oil Stock Change reported a larger-than-expected draw of -2.48 million barrels, deepening the decline from last week’s -1.90 million barrels. This marks the third consecutive weekly contraction, signaling tightening crude supply conditions amid rising domestic refinery runs and export demand. Looking ahead, sustained inventory draws may support higher crude prices and complicate the Federal Reserve’s inflation outlook. Updated 12/2/25

Australia’s Ai Group Industry Index for December 2025 came in at -12.50, beating the consensus estimate of -15.00 but down from November’s -11.20, signaling ongoing contraction in manufacturing with a slight deterioration month-on-month. Although the index remains below zero, it is well above the year’s lows, suggesting stabilization amid persistent cost pressures and supply chain challenges. Looking ahead, further RBA rate hikes and global uncertainties may weigh on activity, but fiscal support and easing inflation could provide upside if conditions improve. Updated 12/2/25

Australia’s CFTC AUD speculative net positions surprised with a deeper net short of -65.80K contracts, extending bearish bets from the prior -57.80K. This 8K increase in net shorts signals persistent contraction in speculative appetite for AUD amid ongoing macro and geopolitical headwinds. Looking ahead, market participants will closely watch RBA policy moves and China’s growth outlook for cues on potential shifts in AUD positioning. Updated 12/2/25

Brazil’s CFTC BRL speculative net positions came in at 55.20K contracts, missing the prior 59.60K and signaling a mild contraction from last month’s peak. This 7.40% decline still keeps positioning well above the 12-month average, indicating sustained bullish sentiment despite recent profit-taking. Looking ahead, stable fiscal policy and cautious monetary stance suggest net positions may stabilize near current levels amid moderate risk appetite. Updated 12/2/25

Japan’s CFTC JPY speculative net positions surged to 70.40K contracts, beating expectations with a sharp rebound from the previous 46.30K. This 52% increase signals renewed expansion in speculative yen longs, reversing a two-month decline and aligning near the 12-month average of 72.50K. Market focus now shifts to the Bank of Japan’s policy stance and US monetary moves, which will likely dictate yen volatility and speculative flows in the coming months. Updated 12/2/25

The UK CFTC GBP speculative net positions for December 2, 2025, showed a surprising jump to -16.80K contracts, sharply increasing from the previous -4.50K. This 12.30K rise in net shorts signals growing market caution and a contraction in bullish sentiment toward the pound. Looking ahead, persistent inflation and geopolitical risks suggest continued volatility, with traders positioning for potential further sterling weakness. Updated 12/2/25

US CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions plunged to 39.80K contracts, sharply missing expectations and down from 74.30K last month. This 46.40% decline signals a contraction in bullish speculative sentiment amid tightening monetary policy and geopolitical risks. Looking ahead, markets anticipate elevated volatility with a moderate recovery in net positions by Q2 2026 as financial conditions potentially ease. Updated 12/2/25

US CFTC Gold Speculative net positions unexpectedly dropped to 176.60K contracts on December 2, 2025, sharply missing prior elevated levels. This 24% decline from the previous 232K signals a contraction in bullish speculative interest, reversing months of accumulation above 250K. Looking ahead, sustained Fed hawkishness and a stronger dollar may pressure gold further, though inflation or geopolitical shocks could revive speculative demand. Updated 12/2/25

The US CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions rose to 48.90K contracts, surpassing last month’s 43.30K and signaling a notable expansion in bullish sentiment. This 13% increase reflects growing investor confidence amid easing inflation pressures and ongoing Fed tightening. Looking ahead, markets may remain volatile as positioning peaks raise the risk of a pullback if macro or geopolitical risks intensify. Updated 12/2/25

The US CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions came in at -145.30K contracts, slightly more bearish than November’s -144.10K, signaling persistent cautious sentiment. This modest increase of 1.20K contracts still reflects a contraction in risk appetite compared to the September peak of -225.10K, indicating a tempered but ongoing net short stance. Looking ahead, markets will monitor inflation trends and Fed policy for clues on whether speculative shorts will ease further or deepen amid geopolitical uncertainties. Updated 12/2/25

The EU’s CFTC EUR speculative net positions came in at 111.80K contracts, missing the prior 118.40K and signaling a notable pullback in bullish bets. This 5.60% decline from the previous reading reflects a contraction in speculative appetite amid tightening ECB policy and geopolitical uncertainties. Looking ahead, market participants will closely watch ECB guidance and geopolitical developments for cues on euro volatility and positioning shifts. Updated 12/2/25

Brazil’s Industrial Production MoM rose 0.10% in December 2025, missing the 0.40% consensus but improving from November’s -0.40% contraction. This modest gain signals tentative stabilization after a volatile year marked by alternating expansions and contractions. Looking ahead, ongoing monetary tightening and external demand risks suggest cautious sector growth, with market participants closely watching inflation and policy developments. Updated 12/2/25

Mexico’s Business Confidence for December 2025 came in at 48.40, missing the consensus estimate of 49.00 and falling below November’s 48.90. This 0.50-point decline signals contractionary sentiment as the index remains under 50, marking the lowest level since May 2025. Looking ahead, continued monetary tightening and external uncertainties may keep business optimism subdued, pressuring investment and hiring decisions. Updated 12/2/25

The EU Inflation Rate MoM for December 2025 matched expectations at -0.30%, surprising markets by reversing November’s 0.20% increase and signaling a contraction in monthly price pressures. This 0.50 percentage point decline marks the first negative reading since August 2025, reflecting easing energy costs and supply chain improvements. Looking ahead, the ECB may consider this disinflationary signal when calibrating policy, though persistent core inflation suggests cautious monitoring. Updated 12/2/25

The EU Core Inflation Rate YoY came in at 2.40%, matching the previous reading but missing the 2.50% consensus estimate. This unchanged rate from November signals persistent inflationary pressures above the ECB’s 2% target, indicating ongoing expansionary price dynamics. Looking ahead, the ECB is likely to maintain cautious tightening as markets price in moderate further rate hikes amid sticky core inflation. Updated 12/2/25

South Africa’s GDP Growth Rate QoQ for Q4 2025 came in at 0.50%, missing the 0.90% estimate and down from 0.80% in Q3, signaling a slowdown in economic expansion. This 0.30 percentage point decline reflects ongoing structural challenges despite remaining in positive growth territory. Looking ahead, tighter monetary policy and fiscal constraints may temper growth, while commodity exports and domestic demand offer limited support. Updated 12/2/25

South Africa’s Gross Domestic Product QoQ for Q4 2025 came in at 0.50%, missing the previous quarter’s 0.90% and signaling a moderation in economic expansion. This slowdown from 0.90% to 0.50% still indicates growth but reflects ongoing structural challenges and subdued global demand. Looking ahead, monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative while reforms and stable commodity prices will be critical to sustaining momentum. Updated 12/2/25

South Africa’s GDP Growth Rate YoY for December 2025 surprised markets by surging to 2.10%, well above the 0.40% estimate and previous 0.90% reading. This 1.20 percentage point increase signals a strong economic expansion, the fastest since September 2023’s 1.60%, driven by improved commodity exports and domestic demand. Looking ahead, sustained growth depends on continued policy support amid inflation pressures and external risks, with markets reacting positively to the robust data. Updated 12/2/25