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China’s Fixed Asset Investment surged 1.80% in February, reversing January’s -3.80% and beating the -0.40% consensus. This marks the first positive reading since May 2025, ending a seven-month contraction and signaling renewed infrastructure and manufacturing momentum. Equities rallied on the upside surprise while bond yields edged higher amid stabilizing growth expectations. Updated 3/16/26

China’s Industrial Production YoY rose 6.30% in February, up from January’s 5.20%, marking the strongest annual growth since October 2025. This 1.10 percentage point increase signals renewed momentum in manufacturing and energy output, reversing the slowdown seen in late 2025. Market reaction included a rally in the Shanghai Composite and a modest strengthening of the CNY against the USD. Updated 3/16/26

China's House Price Index YoY fell to -3.20% in February 2026, deepening the annual decline from January's -3.10%. This marks the ninth consecutive month of contraction and the steepest drop since July 2025's -3.50%, underscoring persistent weakness despite policy efforts. Market sentiment remains cautious as property-linked equities underperform amid ongoing sector challenges. Updated 3/16/26

New Zealand’s Retail Sales MoM surged 1.40% in February, reversing January’s -1.10% decline. February’s gain marks the strongest monthly advance since December 2025 and signals renewed consumer momentum amid volatile trends. The sharp rebound has boosted NZD and shifted market sentiment toward a more optimistic view of domestic demand. Updated 3/15/26

Australia’s CFTC AUD speculative net positions fell to 54.20K in March from February’s 67.80K, snapping a six-week rally and signaling moderating bullish sentiment. The decline from February’s 67.80K to March’s 54.20K marks the first monthly drop since January, though positioning remains above the 12-month average near 50K. Market participants are recalibrating AUD exposure amid stable RBA policy and softer commodity prices. Updated 3/13/26

Brazil's CFTC BRL speculative net positions rose to 51.00K in the week ending March 13, up from 45.00K the prior week, marking continued bullish momentum. This increase from March 6 to March 13 reflects growing speculative interest in the Brazilian real. Market participants will watch for further positioning ahead of upcoming economic data releases. Updated 3/13/26

Japan’s CFTC JPY speculative net positions plunged to -41.40K in February from -16.60K in January, marking the sharpest monthly bearish swing since January 2026. The net short position deepened by 24.80K contracts, well below the 12-month average of -10.20K, reflecting intensified bearish sentiment amid widening US-Japan yield spreads. Market focus remains on sustained net shorts as global risk appetite and rate differentials continue to pressure the yen. Updated 3/13/26

UK CFTC GBP speculative net positions fell sharply to -84.20K in March from -72.70K in February, marking the largest bearish stance since 2020. The net short has widened for five consecutive weeks, signaling persistent negative sentiment on the British pound. The Bank of England’s policy rate remains at 5.25%, while market participants brace for continued volatility amid sustained bearish positioning. Updated 3/13/26

US CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions surged to 228.00K contracts in February, up sharply from January’s 172.20K. This marks the highest monthly print in over a year, reflecting a strong bullish shift in speculative sentiment. Energy markets reacted with increased volatility and rallies in oil futures and related equities. Updated 3/13/26

US CFTC Gold Speculative net positions rose to 163.10K in February from 160.10K in January, marking a modest 2% increase and signaling a cautious recovery in speculative gold sentiment. This uptick follows January’s volatility but remains below the 12-month average of 181.30K, reflecting subdued trader conviction. Market participants remain watchful ahead of upcoming macroeconomic data and central bank commentary. Updated 3/13/26

US CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions surged to 24.90K contracts in February, sharply rebounding from January’s 2.40K. This 22.50K increase marks the largest monthly jump in over a year and lifts net longs well above the 12-month average of 16.20K, signaling renewed bullishness among leveraged funds. With the Federal Reserve holding rates steady, market positioning reflects growing risk appetite amid stable policy conditions. Updated 3/13/26

US CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions narrowed to -134.50K in February, improving sharply from January’s -168.20K. This 33.70K contraction in net shorts marks the steepest monthly rebound since September 2025, reflecting a partial return of risk appetite amid a 4.20% S&P 500 gain. Despite the improvement, positioning remains net short, with markets awaiting further macro data and earnings reports. Updated 3/13/26

EU CFTC EUR speculative net positions fell sharply to 105.10K in March from February’s 136.50K, marking a 22.90% decline and the lowest level since December 2023. The drop follows a peak of 180.30K in mid-February, signaling a clear retreat in EUR bullish positioning. With the ECB stance steady, markets now price increased volatility and balanced risks ahead of upcoming macro data. Updated 3/13/26

Russia’s Inflation Rate MoM for February 2026 came in at 0.70%, beating the 0.60% estimate but down sharply from January’s 1.60%. The slowdown signals easing price pressures after a volatile winter, though inflation remains above the central bank’s target. Market reaction was muted, with the ruble steady and expectations for gradual normalization intact. Updated 3/13/26

Russia’s February CPI rose 0.70%, missing the 0.60% estimate but sharply down from January’s 1.60%. The slowdown signals easing inflation pressures after a volatile start to 2026, with the monthly increase below the 12-month average of 1.14%. Market reaction was muted as investors reassess the Bank of Russia’s policy path amid moderating price growth. Updated 3/13/26

Russia’s Inflation Rate YoY for February 2026 came in at 5.90%, slightly above the 5.70% estimate but down from January’s 6.00%. This marks the third consecutive month of easing inflation since the 10.20% peak in May 2025, though the rate remains nearly 2 percentage points above the Bank of Russia’s 4% target. Market reaction was muted as investors await further data and central bank guidance on policy adjustments. Updated 3/13/26

The US Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for March 2026 held steady at 2.70%, matching February’s final reading and missing any acceleration from January’s 3.60%. This signals a moderation in growth momentum as consumer spending and net exports provided modest support while private investment weighed. Market reaction was muted, with investors focusing on upcoming retail sales and industrial output data for further guidance. Updated 3/14/26

US Inflation Expectations held steady at 3.40% in February, matching January’s reading and missing the 3.60% consensus estimate. February’s 3.40% is unchanged from January’s 3.40% and 0.20 percentage points above December’s 3.20%, indicating a stable but elevated inflation outlook. Market reaction was muted as the steady print supports expectations of a pause in Federal Reserve policy shifts. Updated 3/13/26

Canada’s Employment Change plunged by -83.90K in February, missing the 10.00K estimate and worsening from January’s -24.80K. This marks the steepest monthly decline since the pandemic, signaling broad-based labor market weakness. The Canadian dollar weakened sharply as markets priced in increased risks to economic momentum and potential shifts in monetary policy. Updated 3/13/26

Canada’s Full Time Employment Chg fell by -108.40K in February 2026, reversing January’s 44.90K gain and marking the sharpest monthly drop since 2020. This plunge signals mounting labor market stress as full-time jobs contracted dramatically from January’s expansion. The Canadian dollar weakened sharply on the release, with bond yields falling amid growing expectations of a more dovish Bank of Canada stance. Updated 3/13/26

Canada’s Part Time Employment Chg rose by 24.50 K in February 2026, reversing January’s steep decline of -69.70 K. February’s rebound marks a return to positive territory after several months of losses, but the 12-month trend remains volatile with swings from 69.50 K to -69.70 K. Market reaction was muted as investors await further data to assess labor market stability and the Bank of Canada’s policy direction. Updated 3/13/26

Canada’s participation rate fell to 64.90% in February, down from January’s 65.00%, marking its lowest level since December 2023. The 0.10 percentage point decline signals a cooling labor market with participation now 0.50 points below the 12-month average of 65.40%. Bond yields edged lower on the release, reflecting softer labor supply dynamics and a modest weakening of the Canadian dollar. Updated 3/13/26

US PCE Price Index MoM rose 0.30% in February 2026, matching consensus and easing from January’s 0.40%. The slowdown signals inflation stabilizing after recent peaks, with the 12-month average at 0.25%. Markets responded with modest gains as bond yields edged lower, reflecting expectations for steady Federal Reserve policy. Updated 3/13/26

US PCE Price Index YoY for February 2026 came in at 2.80%, missing the 2.90% estimate and down from January’s 2.90%. This marks a second consecutive monthly decline, signaling a moderation in inflation pressures while remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Treasury yields fell and equities gained as markets priced in a less aggressive Fed stance ahead of upcoming data releases. Updated 3/13/26

US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM rose 0.40% in February 2026, missing the 0.50% consensus and slowing from January’s 1.00% gain. February’s increase matches December’s 0.40% reading, keeping the trend steady but moderating within the 12-month average of 0.48%. Market reaction was muted as investors await further signals on business investment momentum and Federal Reserve policy. Updated 3/13/26

UK’s NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker posted a 0.20% gain in February 2026, doubling January’s 0.10% and marking the strongest monthly growth since November 2025. This rebound follows December’s -0.10% contraction, signaling a gradual recovery led by services while manufacturing remained flat. Sterling and UK equities responded positively as markets digest this momentum amid ongoing inflation and labor data releases. Updated 3/13/26

EU Industrial Production MoM fell by -1.50% in February, missing the 0.60% consensus and deepening January’s -1.40% decline. This marks a second consecutive contraction, with output remaining below the 12-month average of -0.45%, driven by sharp drops in energy and capital goods. Risk assets sold off as investors reassess growth prospects ahead of upcoming PMI and employment data. Updated 3/13/26

China’s New Yuan Loans for February registered CNY 900B, sharply missing the consensus of CNY 979B and plunging from January’s CNY 4,710B. This steep decline signals a significant contraction in credit expansion compared to the prior month’s surge. The People’s Bank of China maintains a cautious stance as markets price in subdued lending momentum and await March’s data for signs of recovery. Updated 3/13/26

China’s New Loans for February totaled CNY 900B, sharply missing the prior month’s CNY 4,710B. This 80.90% MoM decline from January to February signals a steep contraction in credit growth, reflecting seasonal and structural factors. Market reaction was muted as the PBOC maintains a steady policy stance, focusing on targeted support over broad easing. Updated 3/13/26

Italy’s Industrial Production MoM fell -0.60% in February, missing the consensus estimate of 0.30%. This marks a deeper contraction compared to January’s -0.50%, extending the sector’s recent volatility. Markets showed little reaction as investors remain cautious amid ongoing eurozone uncertainty. Updated 3/13/26

Poland’s Inflation Rate MoM for February 2026 registered 0.30%, matching consensus and down from January’s 0.60%. This deceleration signals cooling price pressures after a brief acceleration, with inflation returning to subdued levels seen in late 2025. The National Bank of Poland’s current policy stance remains supported as markets show muted reaction to the stable inflation trend. Updated 3/13/26

Poland’s Inflation Rate YoY for February 2026 held steady at 2.10%, matching January’s reading and marking the lowest level since September 2025. This represents a continued deceleration from 2.40% in December 2025 and 2.80% in November 2025, signaling persistent disinflationary pressures. Market reaction was muted as the stable inflation rate supports the National Bank of Poland’s steady policy stance. Updated 3/13/26

Spain’s HICP YoY inflation held steady at 2.50% in February 2026, matching January’s print and consensus. The reading remained unchanged from January’s 2.50% and below December’s 3.00%, signaling a plateau after months of disinflation. The persistent inflation above the ECB’s 2% target keeps monetary policy under close scrutiny as markets adjust expectations. Updated 3/13/26

Spain’s CPI rose 0.40% in February 2026, reversing January’s -0.40% decline and matching consensus. Annual inflation held steady at 2.30%, unchanged from January, signaling price stability amid easing energy and food price pressures. Market reaction was muted, with bond yields and the euro steady as investors await further ECB guidance. Updated 3/13/26

France’s HICP MoM inflation surged to 0.70% in February 2026, sharply reversing January’s -0.40% and beating the 0.40% consensus estimate. This marks the largest monthly increase since June 2023, driven by energy and food price gains that ended three months of negative or flat readings. French government bond yields rose immediately, reflecting market repricing of inflation risk amid heightened ECB vigilance. Updated 3/13/26

France's CPI rose 0.90% in February 2026, slightly below January's 1.00% but well above December's -0.20%. The reading signals persistent inflation pressures driven by energy and food prices, keeping annualized inflation above the ECB's 2% target. French government bond yields rose and the euro strengthened modestly as markets priced in continued monetary tightening. Updated 3/13/26

Germany’s Wholesale Prices MoM rose 0.60% in February 2026, easing from January’s 0.90% but surpassing estimates of 0.40%. The slowdown from January to February still keeps wholesale inflation well above the 12-month average of approximately 0.13%, indicating persistent cost pressures. Market reaction was muted as investors weigh ongoing volatility against broader disinflation signals. Updated 3/13/26

Germany's Wholesale Prices YoY held steady at 1.20% in February 2026, matching January's exact reading. This stability follows a recovery from mid-2025 lows, with the index unchanged from January's 1.20% and below December's 1.50%, indicating stable upstream inflation pressures. Market reaction was muted as the data aligned with expectations, keeping the euro and bond yields steady ahead of upcoming ECB meetings. Updated 3/13/26

UK Industrial Production MoM fell -0.10% in February 2026, missing the 0.20% consensus and improving from January’s -0.90%. The contraction eased but output remains volatile, with the 12-month average at -0.18%. GBP and bond markets showed muted reactions as investors await clearer signs of sustained recovery. Updated 3/13/26

UK GDP 3-Month Avg rose to 0.20% in February, missing the 0.30% consensus and up from January’s 0.10%. The increase reverses December’s -0.10% contraction but remains below the 12-month average of 0.26%, with services driving gains while manufacturing lagged. Market reaction was muted as growth stays subdued, keeping the Bank of England’s policy stance cautious. Updated 3/13/26

The UK’s Goods Trade Balance deficit narrowed sharply to -14.45 billion GBP in February 2026, beating estimates and improving from January’s -22.72 billion. This marks the smallest deficit in over a year, driven by stronger exports and moderated imports. Sterling rallied on the release as markets reassessed the UK’s external position and growth outlook. Updated 3/13/26

UK’s Goods Trade Balance Non-EU deficit narrowed sharply to -3.46 billion GBP in February 2026, improving significantly from January’s -10.99 billion GBP. This marks the smallest deficit in nearly a year and breaks a persistent trend of large monthly shortfalls above £8 billion. Sterling rallied modestly on the release as markets reassessed the UK’s external position amid stronger exports and lower energy imports. Updated 3/13/26

UK Manufacturing Production MoM rose 0.10% in February 2026, missing the 0.20% estimate but reversing January’s -0.50% decline. This modest rebound breaks a two-month contraction streak, though output remains volatile and below the 12-month average of 0.06%. Sterling slipped modestly after the release as markets remain cautious amid ongoing sector fragility and subdued momentum. Updated 3/13/26

Philippines’ Unemployment Rate rose sharply to 5.80% in February 2026, up from January’s 4.40%, marking the highest level since September 2025. This 1.40 percentage point increase signals renewed labor market volatility after months of relative stability. Market reaction included a modest peso weakening and equity declines amid concerns over consumer demand and fiscal stability. Updated 3/13/26

New Zealand’s Business NZ PMI for February registered 55.00, slightly missing the estimate of 54.60 but down from January’s 55.20. The reading marks the seventh consecutive month above the 50.00 expansion threshold, remaining well above the 12-month average of 51.10 and signaling sustained manufacturing momentum. Market reaction was positive, with the NZD strengthening modestly and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintaining a data-dependent policy stance. Updated 3/12/26