Crypto

Digital-asset markets have entered January on a cautiously optimistic footing, with total crypto market capitalization stabilizing around $3.3 trillion as Bitcoin consolidates between $90,000 and $96,000— roughly 25% below October's all-time high of $126,000. The pullback from late 2025, which saw total market cap decline 24% in Q4 alone, has given way to renewed institutional flows as ETF demand rebounds and corporate treasury companies—having deployed at least $49.7 billion throughout 2025—continue accumulating despite muted price action.

Bitcoin: charts, catalysts, course. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have roared back to life, recording their largest single-day inflow in three months on January 5 at nearly $697 million—with BlackRock's IBIT capturing over $370 million alone. The two-day cumulative total for 2026 surpassed $1.2 billion, reversing the late-December outflows that had spooked sentiment. Analysts at Bitwise expect ETF assets to reach $180–$220 billion in 2026 as major banks like Bank of America and Wells Fargo open distribution to clients. Price forecasts remain wildly divergent: Standard Chartered targets $150,000 (revised down from $300,000), CoinShares sees $120,000–$170,000 with constructive action in H2, while Bloomberg Intelligence's Mike McGlone warns of a potential reversion to $50,000 if risk assets broadly normalize. Our base case: BTC consolidates in the $88,000–$100,000 range near-term as Bollinger Bands compress to their tightest levels since July, setting up a volatility explosion—though the direction remains contingent on Fed policy clarity, ETF flow persistence, and whether institutional allocators continue treating crypto as a structural portfolio component rather than a tactical trade.

Last updated: January 18, 2025