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The U.S. economy continues to defy expectations, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model tracking Q3 2025 real GDP growth at 3.9%—well above trend despite a softening labor market. Year-over-year CPI inflation stands at 3.0%, with core inflation matching that figure, though tariff pass-through effects remain a headwind. The Federal Reserve's policy rate sits at 3.75%–4.00% following October's 25 bp cut, with markets pricing roughly 70% odds of another reduction at the December meeting as policymakers balance inflation concerns against labor market cooling.

The 43-day government shutdown—the longest on record—has left a modest but permanent dent in GDP and complicated data availability for Fed officials. Growth remains K-shaped: AI-linked capital expenditures have accounted for roughly one-third of H1 2025 GDP gains, while non-tech investment stagnates amid policy uncertainty and elevated financing costs. Sigmanomics projects average annual GDP growth of 1.8%–2.2% through 2027, contingent on inflation returning sustainably to target and labor market stabilization.

Updated December 01, 2025

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Major Economies(251 countries)

Afghanistan

Åland

Albania

Algeria

American Samoa

Andorra

Angola

Anguilla

Antarctica

Antigua and Barbuda

Argentina

Armenia

Aruba

Australia

Austria

Azerbaijan

Bahamas

Bahrain

Bangladesh

Barbados

Belarus

Belgium

Belize

Benin

Bermuda

Bhutan

Bolivia

Bonaire

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Botswana

Bouvet Island

Brazil

British Indian Ocean Territory

British Virgin Islands

Brunei

Bulgaria

Burkina Faso

Burundi

Cambodia

Cameroon

Canada

Cape Verde

Cayman Islands

Central African Republic

Chad

Chile

China

Christmas Island

Cocos [Keeling] Islands

Colombia

Comoros

Cook Islands

Costa Rica

Croatia

Cuba

Curacao

Cyprus

Czech Republic

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Denmark

Djibouti

Dominica

Dominican Republic

East Timor

Ecuador

Egypt

El Salvador

Equatorial Guinea

Eritrea

Estonia

Ethiopia

Falkland Islands