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The October 9 release of Michigan consumer sentiment showed an October reading of 46.3 for the United States, below the consensus estimate of 47.6 and extending the decline in the survey’s recent headline readings. The index fell from 48.1 in the September 25 release, while the earlier September 11 reading stood at 47.8, leaving the October figure below both September observations rather than merely reversing a late-month improvement. Recent releases show sentiment retreating from 55.2 on July 31 to 51.7 on August 28 and then 48.1 on September 25; this index does not use a 50-point threshold to distinguish economic expansion from contraction. The survey tracks consumers’ assessments of current economic conditions and their expectations, but the available figures do not establish which component drove October’s decline or whether particular household groups accounted for the deterioration in sentiment. Across the available history, the latest reading remains above the 44.8 recorded on May 22 but below July’s 55.2, framing the recent pullback as a household-confidence development rather than a direct measurement of changes in consumer spending. Upcoming consumer sentiment, inflation and employment reports provide the next related indicators for assessing household conditions alongside the Federal Reserve’s price-stability and maximum-employment objectives, while this sentiment reading alone establishes neither market interest-rate pricing nor a policy decision; Updated 10/12/26.
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Sigmacast 7-day expected-move ranges, widest first · magnitude & recent character (not a direction call)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
Data as of
OSMO/USD surged 42.50% on October 12, pushing above yesterday's close of $0.037200 — vs an avg daily swing of ±4.1% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $0.039141–$0.…
FICO rose 7.90% on October 12, pushing above yesterday's close of $668.00 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.7% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $532.96–$1,041.74; …
EBAY rose 5.40% on October 12, pushing above yesterday's close of $112.22 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.4% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $111.75–$115.61; cu…
GLW fell 6.20% on October 12, pulling below yesterday's close of $156.69 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.7% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $156.22–$161.98; cur…
Orange Juice Futures surged 1.00% on October 12, pushing above yesterday's close of $147.05 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.3% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $147…
Palladium Spot slid 0.50% on October 12, pulling below yesterday's close of $1,155.58 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.2% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $1,146.…
NASDAQ 100 fell 0.50% on October 12, pulling below yesterday's close of $30,883.15. Updated 10/12/26
NOW rose 3.70% on October 12, pushing above yesterday's close of $140.87 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.4% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $141.35–$142.15; cur…
TER fell 4.00% on October 12, pulling below yesterday's close of $402.64 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.8% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $402.64–$449.50; cur…
Soybeans Futures surged 0.30% on October 12, pushing above yesterday's close of $1,280.82 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $1,279…
Gasoline Futures slid 0.40% on October 12, pulling below yesterday's close of $3.31 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.3% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $3.18–$3.…
USD/UGX surged 1.80% on October 12, pushing above yesterday's close of 4053.43 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of 3965.59–4191.55; …
USD/SCR slid 3.60% on October 12, pulling below yesterday's close of 14.6900 — vs an avg daily swing of ±1.0% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of 12.9257–14.8491;…
India's Inflation Rate YoY for September rose to 4.82%, slightly above the 4.80% estimate and up from August's 4.45%. This marks a continued acceleration in inflation, reflecting persistent price pressures compared to t…
Cocoa Futures surged 0.70% on October 12, pushing above yesterday's close of $5,715.58 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.2% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $5,598.62…
Coffee Futures slid 0.20% on October 12, pulling below yesterday's close of $285.39 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.2% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $284.65–$…
GBP/UGX surged 1.60% on October 12, pushing above yesterday's close of 5363.64 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of 5212.54–5534.34; …
CCI rose 15.60% on October 12, pushing above yesterday's close of $68.89 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.5% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $79.64–$151.80; current…
TMUS fell 13.20% on October 12, pulling below yesterday's close of $171.22 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.4% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $125.96–$148.61; c…
CHF/RUB slid 1.40% on October 12, pulling below yesterday's close of 102.50 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of 98.84–105.07; cur…
Cheese Futures surged 0.10% on October 12, pushing above yesterday's close of $1.49 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $1.48–$1.50;…