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United States retail sales grew 6.3% year over year in September, exceeding the listed consensus estimate of 5.2% in the October 15 release and marking a stronger annual increase than the preceding month’s reported pace. September’s 6.3% annual growth rate compared with 5.6% in August, establishing an acceleration between those reporting periods without providing a separate measure of the change in retail sales from August to September. The positive annual readings show that sales exceeded their year-earlier levels in both months, although these two observations alone do not establish a sustained acceleration or describe the intervening pattern of monthly spending. The headline figures provide no sector breakdown, leaving the contributions from motor vehicles, gasoline stations, restaurants, and other retailers unspecified and preventing attribution of September’s faster annual growth to any particular category of consumer purchases. September’s reading compares sales with their level a year earlier rather than with a twelve-month average, and the distinction between sales growth and purchasing-power gains remains important when assessing household demand alongside changes in consumer prices. The Federal Reserve pursues maximum employment and stable prices, making consumer demand relevant to its policy assessments alongside inflation and labor-market conditions, while the retail sales figures themselves contain no announcement of a policy change; Updated 10/15/26.
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In-range ~60% (backtest)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
Data as of
Russell 2000 rose 1.40% on October 15, pushing above yesterday's close of $2,729.53. Updated 10/15/26
BAT/USD surged 21.40% on October 15, pushing above yesterday's close of $0.172300 — vs an avg daily swing of ±1.7% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $0.240299–$0.3…
RVN/BTC slid 50.00% on October 15, pulling below yesterday's close of $0.000000 — vs an avg daily swing of ±1.7% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $0.000000–$0.…
EFX rose 7.20% on October 15, pushing above yesterday's close of $150.34 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.4% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $160.34–$223.23; curren…
STRK/USD surged 19.20% on October 15, pushing above yesterday's close of $0.076990 — vs an avg daily swing of ±3.1% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $0.042205–…
FTSE 100 rose 1.10% on October 15, pushing above yesterday's close of $10,724.86. Updated 10/15/26
NASDAQ 100 fell 0.50% on October 15, pulling below yesterday's close of $29,950.82. Updated 10/15/26
PYTH/USD surged 15.80% on October 15, pushing above yesterday's close of $0.085140 — vs an avg daily swing of ±1.8% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $0.067889–…
POOL rose 7.70% on October 15, pushing above yesterday's close of $158.33 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.5% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $150.12–$158.15; curre…
US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change for the week ending October 7 showed an actual draw of -3.186 million barrels, missing the estimate of a 1.7 million barrel build. This contrasts with the prior week's 0.922 million barrel…
US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change rose to 0.382 million barrels in the week ending October 7, beating the estimate of -1.700 million and reversing September 30’s draw of -1.684 million barrels. This shift from a significant…
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow for October registered at 3.600000%, missing the previous 3.700000% estimate and prior reading. This marks a decline from September’s 3.700000%, indicating a slight slowdown in growth momentum. Mar…
CBOE Volatility Index rose 4.70% on October 15, pushing above yesterday's close of $16.8700. Updated 10/15/26
AUD/MAD slid 1.90% on October 15, pulling below yesterday's close of 6.9000 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of 6.6868–7.0916; cu…
Cocoa Futures slid 0.40% on October 15, pulling below yesterday's close of $5,890.12 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.3% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $5,730.0…
CPB rose 6.00% on October 15, pushing above yesterday's close of $19.12 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.5% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $17.28–$19.08; curren…
FMC fell 38.40% on October 15, pulling below yesterday's close of $8.10 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.8% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $6.63–$8.09; current …
US Business Inventories MoM rose 0.800000% in August, beating the 0.300000% estimate and up from July’s 0.100000%. This acceleration signals a notable inventory buildup after minimal growth the prior month. Markets will…
The US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for September came in at 37.800000, beating the estimate of 30.500000 but down from August's 47.400000. This marks a slowdown in expansion after a strong reading in August, th…
US Initial Jobless Claims came in at 197,000 for the week ending October 3, beating the estimate of 200,000 and down from 199,000 the prior week. This marks a slight improvement in labor market conditions as claims decr…
US Core PPI MoM rose 0.20% in August, missing the 0.30% estimate and matching July’s 0.20% reading. August’s figure indicates a steady but subdued inflation trend compared to June’s 0.40% and May’s 1.00%. Market focus r…