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The United States goods trade deficit for March 2026 stood at $83.5 billion, slightly narrower than the consensus estimate of $84 billion. This represents a widening from February’s deficit of $80.9 billion, an increase of $2.6 billion month-over-month. The March reading marks the largest deficit since September 2025, continuing a recent trend of expanding trade gaps. The increase was primarily driven by a rise in imports outpacing export growth. Compared to the 12-month average, the March deficit remains elevated, reflecting persistent pressures from strong domestic demand and global trade dynamics. Market participants are watching for upcoming services trade data and Federal Reserve communications for further insight into external balances. Updated 4/2/26
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Sigmacast 7-day ensemble predictions · Updated every pipeline run
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Gasoline Futures surged 0.10% on April 3, pushing above yesterday's close of $3.29 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.2% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $3.29–$3.69; …
SBAC rose 18.90% on April 3, pushing above yesterday's close of $171.67 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.9% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $199.10–$660.15; current…
Russell 2000 rose 0.70% on April 3, pushing above yesterday's close of $2,512.37. Updated 4/3/26
OGN/USD surged 22.10% on April 3, pushing above yesterday's close of $0.020510 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.9% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $0.015283–$0.0262…
ENPH fell 8.80% on April 3, pulling below yesterday's close of $38.28 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.8% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $32.47–$35.91; current …
CTSI/BTC surged 33.30% on April 3, pushing above yesterday's close of $0.000001 — vs an avg daily swing of ±3.5% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $0.000000–$0.000…
SXP/TRY slid 15.80% on April 3, pulling below yesterday's close of $0.114000 — vs an avg daily swing of ±3.9% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $-0.079228–$0.19260…
US Nonfarm Payrolls Private fell by -86,000 in February 2026, reversing January’s 172,000 gain and marking the first contraction since April 2020. This sharp decline breaks a recent trend of positive job growth, with th…
The US U-6 Unemployment Rate for January 2026 came in at 8.0%, beating the consensus estimate of 8.5% and down from December’s 8.4%. This 0.4 percentage point decline signals a contraction in labor underutilization, rev…
US unemployment rate rose to 4.400000% in February 2026, exceeding January’s 4.300000% and matching November 2025’s level. This increase signals a gradual cooling in the labor market, with the 12-month average now at 4.…
US Non Farm Payrolls fell by -92,000 in February 2026, sharply missing the 70,000 estimate and reversing January’s 130,000 gain. This marks the first negative print since 2020 and signals a steep loss of labor market mo…
U.S. Average Hourly Earnings MoM rose 0.400000% in February 2026, matching January’s pace and beating the 0.300000% consensus estimate. February’s 0.4% print holds steady from January’s 0.4%, remaining above the 12-mont…
US Average Hourly Earnings YoY rose to 3.8% in February 2026, beating the 3.6% estimate and up from January’s 3.7%. This reading matches December’s level, indicating steady wage growth that remains above inflation targe…
The US Participation rate for January 2026 came in at 62.500%, beating the estimate of 62.300% and rising from December’s 62.400%. This slight increase signals a stable labor market with continued expansion above the 50…
Brent Futures surged 0.10% on April 3, pushing above yesterday's close of $109.02 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.2% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $108.98–$112.9…
Canola Futures slid 0.10% on April 3, pulling below yesterday's close of $727.51 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.0% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $726.60–$728…
GAS/BTC surged 22.80% on April 3, pushing above yesterday's close of $0.000024 — vs an avg daily swing of ±1.2% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $0.000020–$0.0…
EUR/SCR surged 1.60% on April 3, pushing above yesterday's close of 16.1900 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.9% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of 10.4697–13.9503; …
USD/CLP slid 0.90% on April 3, pulling below yesterday's close of 925.89 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of 884.05–954.56; curre…
Cheese Futures surged 0.10% on April 3, pushing above yesterday's close of $1.74 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $1.74–$1.97; cu…
ALGO/BTC surged 14.50% on April 3, pushing above yesterday's close of $0.000002 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.9% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $0.000002–$0.000…