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Sigmanomics — The Market Forecast Engine

US Retail Sales Rise 0.5 Percent in April, Match Consensus

US Retail Sales increased by 0.5% month-over-month in April 2026, matching the consensus estimate of 0.5%. This marks a slowdown from March’s 1.6% gain, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points. Despite the deceleration, April’s reading remains above the 12-month rolling average of 1.00%. Non-store retailers and motor vehicles led the growth in April, contributing significantly to the overall increase. Compared to the same period last year, US retail sales continue to demonstrate resilient consumer demand amid ongoing inflationary pressures. Investors are monitoring upcoming Federal Reserve communications and additional economic data releases for further direction. Updated 5/14/26

THE MARKET

FORECAST ENGINE

7 models · 1,456 instruments · 6 timeframes

LIVE SIGNALS

7-Day Forecast · May 23, 2026LIVE

EUR/USD→ FLAT1.1396–1.1831

BTC/USD▲ BULL77254.59–85843.29

AAPL▲ BULL298.17–318.72

XAU/USD▼ BEAR4528.11–4537.73

Start Free →View Track Record

Market Forecasts

1,456+

instruments tracked

1M+

forecasts scored

83%

zone accuracy

5

asset classes

Economic Data

4,151

economic indicators

127

countries covered

6

data sources

FRED · BLS · EIA · ECB · BOJ · FMP

Today's Forecasts

Sigmacast 7-day ensemble predictions · Updated every pipeline run

7-DAY FORECASTLIVEMay 16, 2026 – May 23, 2026

Last updated: May 16, 2026 06:03 AM UTCView All 1,456 →

EUR/USD→ SIDEWAYS

Contains price ~83% of the time

BTC/USD▲ BULLISH

77254.5985843.29

Contains price ~74% of the time

AAPL▲ BULLISH

Contains price ~96% of the time

XAU/USD▼ BEARISH

Symbol	Price

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Latest updates

🇺🇸 CBOE VIX: 17.26Index

39 mins agoUSHigh

CBOE VIX came in at 17.26Index, down from previous 17.87Index. High impact.

🇺🇸 10Y-3M Treasury Spread: 0.78%

39 mins agoUSHigh

10Y-3M Treasury Spread came in at 0.78%, up from previous 0.77%. High impact.

🇺🇸 10Y-3M Treasury Spread: 0.9%

39 mins agoUSHigh

10Y-3M Treasury Spread came in at 0.9%, up from previous 0.78%. High impact.

🇺🇸 Fed Funds Daily: 3.63%

39 mins agoUSHigh

Fed Funds Daily came in at 3.63%, unchanged from previous 3.63%. High impact.

🇺🇸 High Yield Spread (ICE BofA): 2.76%

39 mins agoUSHigh

High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) came in at 2.76%, down from previous 2.82%. High impact.

Coffee Futures surged 0.5%

57 mins agoHigh

Coffee Futures (KC1) surged 0.5% on May 16, pushing above yesterday's close of 265.75.

EUR/LAK surged 0.7%

57 mins agoHigh

EUR/LAK surged 0.7% on May 16, pushing above yesterday's close of 25,423.79. The Sigmanomics 7-Day Forecast is BULLISH.

FTT/USD surged 4.3%

FTT/USD surged 4.3% on May 16, pushing above yesterday's close of 0.35060. The Sigmanomics 7-Day Forecast is BEARISH.

VET/EUR slid 4.5%

VET/EUR slid 4.5% on May 16, pulling below yesterday's close of 0.00630400. The Sigmanomics 7-Day Forecast is BULLISH.

Orange Juice Futures surged 1.0%

Orange Juice Futures (JO1) surged 1.0% on May 16, pushing above yesterday's close of 168.38.

EUR/ETB surged 0.6%

EUR/ETB surged 0.6% on May 16, pushing above yesterday's close of 182.29. The Sigmanomics 7-Day Forecast is BEARISH.

BOME/USDT surged 2.9%

BOME/USDT surged 2.9% on May 16, pushing above yesterday's close of 0.00059000. The Sigmanomics 7-Day Forecast is BULLISH.

SAND/TRY slid 5.3%

SAND/TRY slid 5.3% on May 16, pulling below yesterday's close of 3.59. The Sigmanomics 7-Day Forecast is BEARISH.

Mubadala raises its Bitcoin ETF stake 16% to $566 million

Abu Dhabi's Mubadala disclosed a 16% increase in its Bitcoin ETF position to $566 million in Q1 2026.

Rice Futures surged 0.3%

Rice Futures (RR1) surged 0.3% on May 16, pushing above yesterday's close of 12.54.

Sugar Futures slid 0.1%

Sugar Futures (SB1) slid 0.1% on May 16, pulling below yesterday's close of 14.79.

USD/SCR surged 2.1%

USD/SCR surged 2.1% on May 16, pushing above yesterday's close of 14.11. The Sigmanomics 7-Day Forecast is BULLISH.

EUR/SCR slid 4.9%

EUR/SCR slid 4.9% on May 16, pulling below yesterday's close of 16.61. The Sigmanomics 7-Day Forecast is BULLISH.

Binance's CZ Is Hyper Bullish on AI Agents — and Solana Hosts 63% of Them

Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) has expressed a strong conviction that AI agents will become the largest users of cryptocurrency, potentially executing far more transactions than humans and acc

Wheat Futures slid 1.2%

Wheat Futures (W_1) slid 1.2% on May 15, pulling below yesterday's close of 648.54.

CHZ/BTC surged 5.5%

CHZ/BTC surged 5.5% on May 15, pushing above yesterday's close of 0.00000055. The Sigmanomics 7-Day Forecast is BEARISH.