US Durable Goods Orders MoM Rises 0.3%, Misses Forecast

US durable goods orders rose 0.3% month over month in June 2026, missing the 2.5% consensus estimate. The June reading followed a revised prior decline of 4% in May 2026, marking a swing of 4.3 percentage points between the two months. This modest gain comes after several months of volatile readings, including a 7.9% surge in March 2026 and a 4.5% drop reported in late June for the prior period, underscoring choppy momentum in US manufacturing investment. Transportation equipment, particularly aircraft and motor vehicles, typically drives large month-to-month moves in US durable goods orders, and swings in these categories often explain the headline volatility, though detailed June sub-component data were not provided here. Compared with the broader pattern over the past year, where monthly changes have ranged from steep declines to strong gains, the June 0.3% increase signals only a slight improvement in US capital goods demand amid a mixed macroeconomic backdrop of moderating growth and still-elevated borrowing costs. Market participants now track how this weaker-than-forecast durable goods print feeds into expectations for US Federal Reserve policy, alongside upcoming releases on core capital goods orders, industrial production, and broader business investment indicators. Updated 7/27/26