Loading page content
Loading page content

Australia raised its interest rate to 4.85% at the November 3 decision, matching the consensus estimate of 4.85% and lifting the policy setting above its previous level rather than holding the rate unchanged. The decision increased the rate from 4.6% to 4.85%, establishing a higher benchmark at this announcement without establishing which month the preceding setting took effect or how long policymakers maintained that earlier rate. The increase marks an upward move in the policy rate, while its alignment with consensus distinguishes the direction of the decision from its surprise relative to the forecast for this particular announcement. The policy rate itself constitutes the headline measure, rather than a composite of sector readings, and the announcement figures alone do not identify inflation, wages, employment, or another economic variable as the driver. In broader monetary-policy terms, the higher setting represents tightening relative to the previous rate, but the available readings do not establish a year-earlier comparison, a twelve-month average, or the inflation-adjusted level of interest rates. The 4.85% rate now defines the announced policy setting, while the matching consensus describes expectations for this completed decision rather than current market pricing for subsequent meetings or a commitment by policymakers to another increase. Updated 11/3/26
7 models · 1,456 instruments · 6 timeframes
Market Forecasts
Economic Data
Sigmacast 7-day expected-move ranges, widest first · magnitude & recent character (not a direction call)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
Data as of
DAX rose 1.30% on November 4, pushing above yesterday's close of $25,818.50. Updated 11/4/26
GBP/COP surged 1.90% on November 4, pushing above yesterday's close of 4287.30 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. Updated 11/4/26
Spain S&P Global Services PMI actual 57.2 vs 57.6 expected and 58.3 prior.
Italy S&P Global Services PMI actual 52 vs 51.5 expected and 51.7 prior.
Turkey Balance of Trade actual -6.7 vs -5.5 expected and -5.16 prior.
United States MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate actual 7.3 and 7.37 prior.
European Union Inflation Rate actual 104.77 vs 104.6 expected and 104.31 prior.
Spain Employment Change actual 43.128 vs 18.7 expected and 23.587 prior.
Sweden Interest Rate Decision actual 2 vs 2 expected and 1.75 prior.
European Union Inflation Rate MoM actual 0.4 vs 0.3 expected and 0.6 prior.
European Union Inflation Rate YoY actual 4 vs 4 expected and 3.8 prior.
European Union Core Inflation Rate YoY actual 2.5 vs 2.5 expected and 2.5 prior.
LSK/USD surged 12.80% on November 4, pushing above yesterday's close of $0.1775 — vs an avg daily swing of ±1.2% over 30 days. Updated 11/4/26
The Netherlands' Inflation Rate YoY for September came in at 3.400000%, matching estimates and rising from August's 3.300000%. This increase signals a continued upward trend in consumer prices year-over-year. Market par…
CBOE VIX came in at 21.15Index, up from previous 19.42Index. High impact.
10Y-3M Treasury Spread came in at 0.74%, up from previous 0.7%. High impact.
Fed Funds Daily came in at 3.88%, unchanged from previous 3.88%. High impact.
High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) came in at 3.43%, down from previous 3.44%. High impact.
Milk Futures surged 17.30% on November 4, pushing above yesterday's close of $15.19 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.0% over 30 days. Updated 11/4/26
CHF/MXN surged 2.20% on November 4, pushing above yesterday's close of 22.6516 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. Updated 11/4/26
NZD/CHF slid 1.20% on November 4, pulling below yesterday's close of 0.4612 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. Updated 11/4/26