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China Manufacturing PMI Rises To 50.3 Beating 50.1 Consensus
China’s official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 50.3 in June 2026, surpassing the consensus estimate of 50.1. The reading compared with 50.0 in May, marking a 0.3‑point improvement and signaling a return to stronger expansion. The index remained above the 50‑point threshold that separates growth from contraction, extending a modest recovery in factory activity since early 2026. Output and new orders contributed most to the gain, while export demand showed a smaller pickup. The June figure stood slightly above the 12‑month average of about 49.9, reflecting steady domestic demand amid ongoing policy support. The yuan held stable after the release as investors awaited upcoming Caixin PMI and inflation data for further signals on China’s industrial momentum. Updated 6/30/26
THE MARKET
FORECAST ENGINE
7 models · 1,456 instruments · 6 timeframes
EXPECTED MOVES
7-Day Range · July 2, 2026LIVE
AAPL Down · 2H245.14–287.71
BTC/USD Down · 2H52456.19–59378.88
XAU/USD Down · 2H3898.38–3964.68
EUR/USD Up · 2H1.1201–1.1376
Market Forecasts
1,456+
instruments tracked
1M+
forecasts scored
7
ensemble models
5
asset classes
Economic Data
4,151
economic indicators
127
countries covered
6
data sources
FRED · BLS · EIA · ECB · BOJ · FMP
Today's Biggest Expected Moves
Sigmacast 7-day expected-move ranges, widest first · magnitude & recent character (not a direction call)
7-DAY RANGELIVEJun 25, 2026 – Jul 2, 2026
Last updated: Jun 25, 2026 06:07 AM UTCView All 1,456 →
AAPL Down · 2H
286.15expected move ±7.4%
Expected Move (7-Day)
245.14287.71
In-range ~60% (backtest)
BTC/USD Down · 2H
58841.95expected move ±5.9%
Expected Move (7-Day)
52456.1959378.88
In-range ~60% (backtest)
XAU/USD Down · 2H
4028.43expected move ±0.8%
Expected Move (7-Day)
3898.383964.68
EUR/USD Up · 2H
1.1398expected move ±0.8%
Expected Move (7-Day)
1.12011.1376
In-range ~60% (backtest)
