China NBS Manufacturing PMI Falls To 49.3 From 50.1

China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI registered 49.3 for September in the October 31 release, missing the consensus estimate of 50 and placing the headline gauge below the dividing line between expansion and contraction in manufacturing activity. The index fell to 49.3 from August’s 50.1, reversing the preceding increase from July’s 49.8 and returning the manufacturing survey to contraction after a single reading above the neutral threshold. Readings below 50 indicate contraction rather than expansion, but the index measures the balance of survey responses rather than the percentage change in manufacturing output, so the latest figure does not quantify lost production. The headline result does not establish whether production, new orders, employment or other survey components drove the decline, and it provides no basis for attributing the deterioration to a particular manufacturing sector or demand category. The recent sequence also includes readings of 50.3 and 50.4, placing September’s result below earlier expansionary levels and framing the broader manufacturing picture around repeated moves across the neutral threshold rather than a sustained expansion. Upcoming manufacturing surveys and industrial production releases provide the next reference points for assessing factory conditions, while this headline reading alone establishes neither current market interest-rate pricing nor any change in the central bank’s policy stance. Updated 10/31/26