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Sigmanomics — The Market Forecast Engine

US Retail Sales Rise 0.5 Percent, Match Market Consensus

US Retail Sales increased by 0.5% month-over-month in April 2026, matching the consensus estimate of 0.5%. The April figure slowed from March’s 1.6% gain, marking a 1.1 percentage point decrease. Despite the deceleration, retail sales remain above the 12-month rolling average of 1.00%. Growth was led by higher spending in non-store retailers and motor vehicles. Compared to the same period last year, retail sales continue to reflect resilient consumer demand in the United States, even as inflationary pressures persist. Investors are watching for upcoming Federal Reserve communications and additional economic data releases for further direction. Updated 5/14/26

THE MARKET

FORECAST ENGINE

7 models · 1,456 instruments · 6 timeframes

LIVE SIGNALS

7-Day Forecast · May 22, 2026LIVE

EUR/USD→ FLAT1.1418–1.1836

BTC/USD▲ BULL77254.59–85843.29

AAPL▲ BULL298.17–318.72

XAU/USD▲ BULL4603.55–4686.69

Start Free →View Track Record

Market Forecasts

1,456+

instruments tracked

1M+

forecasts scored

83%

zone accuracy

5

asset classes

Economic Data

4,151

economic indicators

127

countries covered

6

data sources

FRED · BLS · EIA · ECB · BOJ · FMP

Today's Forecasts

Sigmacast 7-day ensemble predictions · Updated every pipeline run

7-DAY FORECASTLIVEMay 15, 2026 – May 22, 2026

Last updated: May 15, 2026 06:03 AM UTCView All 1,456 →

EUR/USD→ SIDEWAYS

Contains price ~83% of the time

BTC/USD▲ BULLISH

77254.5985843.29

Contains price ~74% of the time

AAPL▲ BULLISH

Contains price ~96% of the time

XAU/USD▲ BULLISH

Symbol	Price

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Latest updates

CHZ/BTC surged 5.5%

CHZ/BTC surged 5.5% on May 15, pushing above yesterday's close of 0.00000055. The Sigmanomics 7-Day Forecast is BEARISH.

ARPA/USD surged 6.6%

ARPA/USD surged 6.6% on May 15, pushing above yesterday's close of 0.01155. The Sigmanomics 7-Day Forecast is BULLISH.

Australia CFTC AUD speculative net positions Comes In at 85

Australia CFTC AUD speculative net positions actual 85 and 78.7 prior.

Brazil CFTC BRL speculative net positions Comes In at 68.6

Brazil CFTC BRL speculative net positions actual 68.6 and 66.8 prior.

United States CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions Comes In at 169.9

United States CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions actual 169.9 and 178.8 prior.

European Union CFTC EUR speculative net positions Comes In at 40.2

European Union CFTC EUR speculative net positions actual 40.2 and 32.2 prior.

United Kingdom CFTC GBP speculative net positions Comes In at -43.1

United Kingdom CFTC GBP speculative net positions actual -43.1 and -63.9 prior.

United States CFTC Gold Speculative net positions Comes In at 171.6

United States CFTC Gold Speculative net positions actual 171.6 and 163.3 prior.

Japan CFTC JPY speculative net positions Comes In at -75.1

Japan CFTC JPY speculative net positions actual -75.1 and -61.7 prior.

United States CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions Comes In at -16

United States CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions actual -16 and 1.2 prior.

United States CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions Comes In at -143.8

United States CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions actual -143.8 and -103.9 prior.

CBOE Volatility Index rose 6.6%

CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) rose 6.6% on May 15, pushing above yesterday's close of 17.26.

RIF/USD surged 4.0%

RIF/USD surged 4.0% on May 15, pushing above yesterday's close of 0.07340. The Sigmanomics 7-Day Forecast is BULLISH.

Russia GDP Growth Rises 1.8% in March Beats 0.5% Forecast Up From -1.1% in February

Russia's Gross Domestic Product YoY rose to 1.800000% in March 2026, beating the 0.500000% estimate and reversing February's -1.100000% contraction. March's growth marks a strong rebound from February's decline, signali…

ENPH rose 7.2%

Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH) rose 7.2% on May 15, beating yesterday's close of $48.00. The Sigmanomics 7-Day Forecast is BEARISH.

K fell 7.9%

Kinross Gold Corporation (K) fell 7.9% on May 15, pulling below yesterday's close of $42.41. The Sigmanomics 7-Day Forecast is BULLISH.

Russia Inflation Rate MoM March Rises 0.6% Beats 0.5% Forecast Falls From 0.7% February

Russia's Inflation Rate MoM for March registered at 0.600000%, beating the 0.500000% estimate. This marks a slight decline from February's 0.700000%, indicating a modest easing in monthly inflation pressures. The data s…

Russia Inflation Rate Holds at 5.9% in March Above 5.8% Forecast and February’s 5.9%

Russia's Inflation Rate YoY held steady at 5.9% in March, matching February's reading and slightly above the 5.8% estimate. The inflation rate remains stable after a decline from 6.0% in February to 5.9% in March, indic…

Russia GDP Growth Rate YoY at -0.2, Beats -0.5 Forecast

Russia GDP Growth Rate YoY actual -0.2 vs -0.5 expected and 1 prior.

Russia CPI MoM at 0.1, Misses 0.3 Forecast

Russia CPI MoM actual 0.1 vs 0.3 expected and 0.6 prior.

Russia CPI YoY at 5.6, Misses 5.8 Forecast

Russia CPI YoY actual 5.6 vs 5.8 expected and 5.9 prior.