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Australia raised its interest rate to 4.85% at the November 3 decision, matching the consensus estimate of 4.85% and lifting the policy setting above its previous level rather than holding the rate unchanged. The decision increased the rate from 4.6% to 4.85%, establishing a higher benchmark at this announcement without establishing which month the preceding setting took effect or how long policymakers maintained that earlier rate. The increase marks an upward move in the policy rate, while its alignment with consensus distinguishes the direction of the decision from its surprise relative to the forecast for this particular announcement. The policy rate itself constitutes the headline measure, rather than a composite of sector readings, and the announcement figures alone do not identify inflation, wages, employment, or another economic variable as the driver. In broader monetary-policy terms, the higher setting represents tightening relative to the previous rate, but the available readings do not establish a year-earlier comparison, a twelve-month average, or the inflation-adjusted level of interest rates. The 4.85% rate now defines the announced policy setting, while the matching consensus describes expectations for this completed decision rather than current market pricing for subsequent meetings or a commitment by policymakers to another increase. Updated 11/3/26
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In-range ~60% (backtest)
Data as of
FTSE 100 fell 1.00% on November 3, pulling below yesterday's close of $10,761.33. Updated 11/3/26
HOT/TRY surged 23.70% on November 3, pushing above yesterday's close of $0.02152 — vs an avg daily swing of ±2.4% over 30 days. Updated 11/3/26
RVTY rose 12.40% on November 3, pushing above yesterday's close of $151.67 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.5% over 30 days. Updated 11/3/26
IT fell 16.20% on November 3, pulling below yesterday's close of $235.49 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.8% over 30 days. Updated 11/3/26
US Factory Orders MoM rose 0.1% in September, matching estimates but down sharply from August’s 0.9%. The modest increase signals a slowdown in manufacturing demand after two months of stronger gains. Market focus remai…
US JOLTs Job Openings for August came in at 7.079 million, missing the estimate of 7.230 million and down from July’s 7.271 million. The decline signals a continued easing in labor demand following July’s contraction fr…
US Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM rose 2.200% in October, sharply beating the 0.0% estimate and accelerating from September’s 0.3%. October’s increase signals a strong rebound in core capital spending after a modes…
US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM rose 0.50% in October, missing the 0.60% estimate but up from September's 0.30%. October's increase signals moderate growth in core capital spending, maintaining expansion momentum.…
USD/PYG surged 1.00% on November 3, pushing above yesterday's close of 5913.85 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. Updated 11/3/26
Lumber Futures slid 2.40% on November 3, pulling below yesterday's close of $525.48 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. Updated 11/3/26
ACA/USD surged 29.20% on November 3, pushing above yesterday's close of $0.0002512 — vs an avg daily swing of ±2.0% over 30 days. Updated 11/3/26
HOT/USD surged 25.30% on November 3, pushing above yesterday's close of $0.0004310 — vs an avg daily swing of ±2.7% over 30 days. Updated 11/3/26
IDXX rose 21.90% on November 3, pushing above yesterday's close of $551.31 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.8% over 30 days. Updated 11/3/26
Mexico's Business Confidence for September registered at 48.000000, missing the estimate of 48.200000 and down slightly from August's 48.1. The index remains below the 50 threshold, indicating continued contraction in b…
AUD/MXN slid 1.40% on November 3, pulling below yesterday's close of 13.1242 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. Updated 11/3/26
Turkey's Balance of Trade for September registered at -5.230000 billion TRY, matching the previous month's -5.240000 billion TRY. The slight improvement from August's -7.3 billion TRY indicates a narrowing deficit but s…
CHF/TWD surged 1.10% on November 3, pushing above yesterday's close of 39.7592 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. Updated 11/3/26
QUICK/USD slid 15.50% on November 3, pulling below yesterday's close of $0.002780 — vs an avg daily swing of ±3.7% over 30 days. Updated 11/3/26
Switzerland's Inflation Rate YoY for September rose to 1.000000%, matching estimates and up from August's 0.800000%. This marks a clear acceleration in inflation after several months of subdued increases, signaling rene…
Turkey's Inflation Rate MoM for September came in at 1.840000%, matching August's 1.84% and missing the 2.3% estimate. The inflation rate held steady month-over-month, indicating no acceleration in price pressures from …
Turkey's Inflation Rate YoY for September came in at 29.730000%, below the 30.300000% estimate and down from August's 31.510000%. This marks a continued easing in inflation pressures, reflecting a notable deceleration f…