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The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for the United States rose to 54.4 in July 2026, exceeding the consensus estimate of 51. The reading improved from 49.5 in June, marking a 4.9‑point increase and the highest level since March. The index remained well below the 100‑point long‑term average but extended a three‑month recovery from April’s post‑pandemic lows. Gains were driven primarily by stronger assessments of current personal finances and improved expectations for business conditions over the next year. Compared with the 12‑month average of roughly 52, July’s figure signaled a modest strengthening in household confidence amid easing inflation pressures. Investors now await the Federal Reserve’s late‑July policy meeting and upcoming inflation data for further clues on consumer resilience and monetary policy direction. Updated 7/17/26
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Sigmacast 7-day expected-move ranges, widest first · magnitude & recent character (not a direction call)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
NASDAQ 100 fell 1.50% on July 19, pulling below yesterday's close of $29,025.77. Updated 7/19/26
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CBOE Volatility Index rose 12.20% on July 18, pushing above yesterday's close of $16.7300. Updated 7/18/26
NASDAQ 100 fell 1.50% on July 18, pulling below yesterday's close of $29,025.77. Updated 7/18/26
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10Y-3M Treasury Spread came in at 0.7%, down from previous 0.73%. High impact.
Fed Funds Daily came in at 3.63%, unchanged from previous 3.63%. High impact.
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Cocoa Futures surged 2.40% on July 17, pushing above yesterday's close of $5,601.67 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.6% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $5,740.55–$9…
CBOE Volatility Index rose 12.20% on July 17, pushing above yesterday's close of $16.7300. Updated 7/18/26
NASDAQ Composite fell 1.10% on July 17, pulling below yesterday's close of $25,881.95. Updated 7/17/26
Orange Juice Futures slid 1.80% on July 17, pulling below yesterday's close of $139.86 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.4% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $133.0…
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment for June rose to 48.900000, beating the estimate of 46.000000 and improving from May’s 44.800000. The increase from May to June signals a modest rebound in consumer confidence after a peri…
US Industrial Production MoM rose 0.10% in May, missing the 0.30% estimate and down from April’s 0.70%. May’s increase signals a slowdown in factory output growth after a stronger expansion the previous month. Market fo…
US Housing Starts for May came in at 1.177 million, missing the estimate of 1.430 million and down from April’s 1.392 million. This decline signals a contraction in new privately owned housing units started month-over-m…
US Building Permits for May came in at 1.413 million, slightly missing the estimate of 1.420 million. This represents a modest decline from April’s 1.423 million, indicating a slight cooling in housing starts. Market fo…
US Building Permits MoM fell by -0.700000% in May, missing the -0.600000% estimate and reversing sharply from April’s 4.4% gain. This decline marks a contraction after two months of expansion, signaling cooling momentum…
US Export Prices MoM rose 1.300000% in May, beating the 1.200000% estimate. This marks a sharp slowdown from April’s 3.500000% increase, indicating a deceleration in export price growth. The moderation may influence mar…