Sigmanomics — The Market Forecast Engine

Canada GDP Growth Rate Holds at 0.0 Percent, Misses Consensus

Canada's GDP growth rate registered 0.0% quarter-over-quarter for the first quarter of 2026, missing the consensus estimate of 0.1%. The Q1 reading improved from the previous quarter's -0.2%, marking a 0.2 percentage point increase. This stabilization follows a contraction in the prior quarter, with the growth rate remaining below the 12-month rolling forecast of 0.12%. The goods-producing sector, particularly manufacturing, contributed most to the flat performance, offsetting modest gains in services. Compared to the same period last year, growth remains subdued, reflecting ongoing economic headwinds and cautious business sentiment. Market participants are monitoring upcoming Bank of Canada statements and employment data for further signals on the economic outlook. Updated 5/29/26