Loading page content
Canada Interest Rate Rises To 2.5% From 2.25%, Matching Consensus
The Bank of Canada raised its policy interest rate to 2.5% at its October 28, 2026 decision, matching the 2.5% consensus estimate and bringing the benchmark above the level announced at its preceding September meeting. The October decision increased the rate from the 2.25% reading announced on September 2, 2026, so the comparison measures a change between policy announcements rather than a monthly average or a year-over-year change in interest rates. The increase follows unchanged readings of 2.25% at the January, March, April, June and September decisions in 2026, ending the steady-rate pattern across those announcements and lifting the benchmark above its earlier level this year. The policy rate itself forms the headline measure, rather than a sector-weighted economic index, and the decision changes the central bank’s benchmark without identifying an individual industry or statistical component as the driver. For historical context, the new 2.5% rate matches the September 17, 2025 reading and exceeds the 2.25% rate announced on October 29, 2025, reversing that October reduction against the broader backdrop of monetary policy and borrowing costs. The current policy setting now stands at 2.5%, while subsequent central bank communications and releases covering inflation, employment and economic activity remain relevant sources of information for assessing Canada’s monetary policy backdrop. Updated 10/28/26
THE MARKET
FORECAST ENGINE
7 models · 1,456 instruments · 6 timeframes
EXPECTED MOVES
7-Day Range · November 4, 2026LIVE
AAPL Up · 2H341.78–378.25
BTC/USD Up · 2H76826.72–83407.12
EUR/USD Down · 2H1.0988–1.1162
XAU/USD Up · 2H4026.00–4048.03
Market Forecasts
1,456+
instruments tracked
1M+
forecasts scored
7
ensemble models
5
asset classes
Economic Data
4,151
economic indicators
127
countries covered
6
data sources
FRED · BLS · EIA · ECB · BOJ · FMP
Today's Biggest Expected Moves
Sigmacast 7-day expected-move ranges, widest first · magnitude & recent character (not a direction call)
7-DAY RANGELIVEOct 28, 2026 – Nov 4, 2026
Last updated: Oct 28, 2026 02:05 AM UTCView All 1,456 →
AAPL Up · 2H
347.08expected move ±5.3%
Expected Move (7-Day)
341.78378.25
In-range ~60% (backtest)
BTC/USD Up · 2H
80952.98expected move ±4.1%
Expected Move (7-Day)
76826.7283407.12
In-range ~60% (backtest)
EUR/USD Down · 2H
1.1125expected move ±0.8%
Expected Move (7-Day)
1.09881.1162
In-range ~60% (backtest)
XAU/USD Up · 2H
4048.86expected move ±0.3%
Expected Move (7-Day)
4026.004048.03
Data as of
