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The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for the United States registered 48.1 in September, beating the consensus estimate of 47.6 in the September 25 release while remaining below the previous month’s level of confidence. The index fell from 51.7 in August, following August’s decline from July’s 55.2, marking a second consecutive monthly decrease in the headline measure of consumers’ assessments of their finances and the economy. September’s final reading nevertheless exceeded the preliminary September 11 reading of 47.8, distinguishing the upward revision within the month from the decline against August and leaving the broader sequence of monthly decreases intact. The survey tracks current economic conditions and consumer expectations, but the headline figures do not identify which component drove September’s decline, so they do not establish whether present circumstances or the outlook contributed more. September’s 48.1 reading also stood below April’s 49.8, placing the latest result within a broader period of subdued household confidence and providing context for consumer demand without measuring actual purchases of goods and services. Upcoming consumer sentiment, retail sales and inflation releases provide complementary reference points for monitoring household attitudes, spending and purchasing power, with no direct equivalence between a change in this confidence index and a change in consumption. Updated 9/25/26
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In-range ~60% (backtest)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
Data as of
CHTR fell 4.00% on September 26, pulling below yesterday's close of $117.55 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.5% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $88.01–$114.56; c…
ON rose 5.40% on September 26, pushing above yesterday's close of $73.20 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.5% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $75.14–$75.89; curre…
Rice Futures slid 0.10% on September 26, pulling below yesterday's close of $16.59 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $16.58–$17…
Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.90% on September 26, pushing above yesterday's close of $51,349.98. Updated 9/26/26
RARE/USDT surged 44.80% on September 26, pushing above yesterday's close of $0.015950 — vs an avg daily swing of ±3.3% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $0.0116…
Lumber Futures slid 0.10% on September 26, pulling below yesterday's close of $538.26 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $531.44…
Wheat Futures surged 0.10% on September 26, pushing above yesterday's close of $703.18 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $688.4…
ONE/USD slid 5.90% on September 26, pulling below yesterday's close of $0.002520 — vs an avg daily swing of ±1.4% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $0.001213–$0…
Oat Futures surged 0.10% on September 26, pushing above yesterday's close of $420.21 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $418.55–$51…
Sugar Futures slid 0.10% on September 26, pulling below yesterday's close of $18.51 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.2% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $18.54–$1…
CBOE Volatility Index fell 5.10% on September 26, pulling below yesterday's close of $15.6700. Updated 9/26/26
EUR/PGK slid 2.50% on September 26, pulling below yesterday's close of 5.0800 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.2% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of 4.7461–5.2200; cur…
10Y-3M Treasury Spread came in at 0.93%, down from previous 0.94%. High impact.
Fed Funds Daily came in at 3.88%, unchanged from previous 3.88%. High impact.
High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) came in at 2.8%, up from previous 2.73%. High impact.
USD/AFN surged 1.60% on September 26, pushing above yesterday's close of 63.59 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of 62.29–67.17; curr…
USD/TMT slid 2.20% on September 26, pulling below yesterday's close of 3.5100 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of 3.4170–3.5919; cur…
Ethanol Futures surged 1.40% on September 26, pushing above yesterday's close of $2.10 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.0% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $2.13–$3.…
WAXP/USD surged 15.80% on September 26, pushing above yesterday's close of $0.006150 — vs an avg daily swing of ±1.0% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $0.00523…
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