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China’s retail sales increased 1.0% year‑on‑year in June 2026, surpassing the market consensus of a 0.1% decline. The reading improved from a 0.6% contraction in May, marking a 1.6‑percentage‑point rebound. This upturn followed several months of subdued consumption, signaling a modest recovery in household demand. Gains were led by stronger food and beverage sales and a pickup in online retail activity, offsetting continued weakness in property‑related spending. Compared with the 12‑month average growth rate of roughly 2.5%, June’s figure remained below trend, reflecting lingering consumer caution amid uneven economic momentum. Market participants now look to July’s industrial output and fixed‑asset investment data, as well as any policy cues from the People’s Bank of China, for further insight into domestic demand conditions. Updated 7/15/26
7 models · 1,456 instruments · 6 timeframes
Market Forecasts
Economic Data
Sigmacast 7-day expected-move ranges, widest first · magnitude & recent character (not a direction call)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
NASDAQ 100 fell 1.50% on July 18, pulling below yesterday's close of $29,025.77. Updated 7/18/26
CBOE VIX came in at 16.73Index, up from previous 15.67Index. High impact.
10Y-3M Treasury Spread came in at 0.7%, down from previous 0.73%. High impact.
Fed Funds Daily came in at 3.63%, unchanged from previous 3.63%. High impact.
High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) came in at 2.71%, unchanged from previous 2.71%. High impact.
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Cocoa Futures surged 2.40% on July 17, pushing above yesterday's close of $5,601.67 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.6% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $5,740.55–$9…
CBOE Volatility Index rose 12.20% on July 17, pushing above yesterday's close of $16.7300. Updated 7/18/26
NASDAQ Composite fell 1.10% on July 17, pulling below yesterday's close of $25,881.95. Updated 7/17/26
Orange Juice Futures slid 1.80% on July 17, pulling below yesterday's close of $139.86 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.4% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $133.0…
NASDAQ 100 fell 1.60% on July 17, pulling below yesterday's close of $29,502.60. Updated 7/17/26
Fed Total Assets (Balance Sheet) came in at 6743028M, up from previous 6735609M. High impact.
CBOE VIX came in at 15.67Index, down from previous 16.5Index. High impact.
10Y-3M Treasury Spread came in at 0.73%, up from previous 0.72%. High impact.
Fed Funds Daily came in at 3.63%, unchanged from previous 3.63%. High impact.
High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) came in at 2.71%, down from previous 2.72%. High impact.
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Cocoa Futures surged 2.40% on July 17, pushing above yesterday's close of $5,601.67 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.6% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $5,735.38–$1…
CBOE Volatility Index rose 6.80% on July 17, pushing above yesterday's close of $15.6700. Updated 7/17/26
XEC/USD surged 17.80% on July 17, pushing above yesterday's close of $0.000006 — vs an avg daily swing of ±1.2% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $0.000006–$0.0000…