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Michigan consumer sentiment in the United States fell to 46.3 in the October 9 release, missing the consensus estimate of 47.6 and extending the decline visible in the two preceding end-of-month releases. The latest index reading compares with 48.1 in the September 25 release, which itself followed 51.7 on August 28, establishing a further deterioration against both of those earlier reported levels. The sequence reverses the improvement reflected in the July 31 reading of 55.2, while this consumer survey does not use the 50-point expansion-or-contraction threshold that applies to purchasing managers’ indexes. The release details available here do not break out current economic conditions, consumer expectations, or demographic contributions, leaving no basis for attributing the headline decline to a particular component or household group. The available observations do not establish a comparable year-earlier reading or a twelve-month average, so the documented context remains the recent retreat in household sentiment rather than a verified annual comparison or a direct measure of consumer spending. The Federal Reserve evaluates employment and inflation in conducting monetary policy, but these sentiment figures contain neither current market interest-rate pricing nor a central bank policy announcement, keeping the survey result distinct from any documented change in monetary policy; Updated 10/9/26.
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Sigmacast 7-day expected-move ranges, widest first · magnitude & recent character (not a direction call)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
Data as of
DAX rose 1.10% on October 10, pushing above yesterday's close of $24,806.97. Updated 10/10/26
STRK/USD surged 39.60% on October 10, pushing above yesterday's close of $0.073100 — vs an avg daily swing of ±1.8% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $0.093387–$0.…
USD/SCR slid 5.80% on October 10, pulling below yesterday's close of 14.6900 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.2% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of 12.9257–14.8491;…
CCI rose 15.60% on October 10, pushing above yesterday's close of $68.89 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.5% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $79.27–$138.19; current…
TMUS fell 13.20% on October 10, pulling below yesterday's close of $171.22 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.4% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $131.70–$193.92; c…
Oat Futures surged 0.10% on October 10, pushing above yesterday's close of $432.16 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.4% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $436.51–$449.…
CBOE Volatility Index fell 3.70% on October 10, pulling below yesterday's close of $15.4100. Updated 10/10/26
LUMIA/USD surged 53.50% on October 10, pushing above yesterday's close of $0.081800 — vs an avg daily swing of ±2.7% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $-0.12177…
REEF/USD slid 24.50% on October 10, pulling below yesterday's close of $0.000051 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.8% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $0.000024–$0…
Corn Futures slid 0.10% on October 10, pulling below yesterday's close of $480.68 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.3% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $473.92–$48…
OGN/USD slid 4.90% on October 10, pulling below yesterday's close of $0.039030 — vs an avg daily swing of ±1.6% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $0.033415–$0.0…
CBOE VIX came in at 15.41Index, up from previous 15.08Index. High impact.
10Y-3M Treasury Spread came in at 0.99%, unchanged from previous 0.99%. High impact.
Fed Funds Daily came in at 3.88%, unchanged from previous 3.88%. High impact.
High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) came in at 3.15%, up from previous 3.09%. High impact.
Ethanol Futures slid 0.10% on October 10, pulling below yesterday's close of $2.01 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.0% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $2.01–$2.0…
IOTX/BTC surged 25.00% on October 10, pushing above yesterday's close of $0.000000 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.8% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $0.000000–…
EUR/AFN surged 2.70% on October 10, pushing above yesterday's close of 72.55 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of 68.35–74.49; cur…
USD/IQD slid 6.10% on October 10, pulling below yesterday's close of 1514.14 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.2% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of 1557.04–1865.16;…
Coffee Futures surged 0.10% on October 10, pushing above yesterday's close of $285.10 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.2% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $284.13–$2…
Cocoa Futures slid 0.10% on October 10, pulling below yesterday's close of $5,672.44 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.2% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $5,595.9…