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Germany’s trade balance registered a surplus of 21.3 in August 2026, beating the 16.0 consensus estimate. The August surplus increased from a revised 15.4 in July 2026, marking a 5.9-point improvement over the prior month. Germany’s trade position remains firmly in surplus territory, extending a pattern of positive external balances that characterizes the country’s export-oriented economy. The latest increase in the surplus reflects stronger net exports, as export values outpaced imports and continued to support overall activity in Germany’s tradable goods sector. Compared with the 12-month trend of solid but smaller surpluses and the year-ago environment of more volatile trade flows, the current 21.3 reading aligns with a broader theme of resilient external demand underpinning Germany’s growth outlook. Market participants now monitor how this upside surprise in Germany’s trade surplus interacts with euro-area inflation dynamics, European Central Bank policy communications, and upcoming releases on industrial production and new orders. Updated 9/8/26
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Sigmacast 7-day expected-move ranges, widest first · magnitude & recent character (not a direction call)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
Data as of
CAD/RUB slid 1.10% on September 9, pulling below yesterday's close of 62.54 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of 60.64–65.03; curr…
pDOTn/EUR slid 10.10% on September 9, pulling below yesterday's close of $1.0730 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.7% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $0.723916–$0.87…
META rose 6.20% on September 9, pushing above yesterday's close of $613.31 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.3% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $613.31–$683.65; curr…
CHTR fell 7.20% on September 9, pulling below yesterday's close of $145.75 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.7% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $142.35–$151.53; c…
FTSE 100 fell 1.40% on September 9, pulling below yesterday's close of $10,811.66. Updated 9/9/26
Rice Futures surged 1.10% on September 9, pushing above yesterday's close of $15.48 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.5% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $15.38–$15.8…
INTC rose 9.00% on September 9, pushing above yesterday's close of $95.81 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.6% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $101.68–$157.55; curre…
Palladium Spot surged 1.10% on September 9, pushing above yesterday's close of $1,335.07 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.3% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $1,350.…
Gasoline Futures slid 0.50% on September 9, pulling below yesterday's close of $3.25 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.2% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $3.27–$3…
EUR/PGK surged 1.70% on September 9, pushing above yesterday's close of 5.1600 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.2% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of 4.9678–5.5048; cu…
Poland's Interest Rate Decision held steady at 3.750000% in June, matching both the estimate and May's level. The rate has remained unchanged since March's 3.75%, following a series of cuts from 4.5% in October 2025. Ma…
AUD/RUB slid 1.00% on September 9, pulling below yesterday's close of 62.29 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of 59.77–64.05; curr…
Coffee Futures surged 0.40% on September 9, pushing above yesterday's close of $291.90 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.3% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $285.17–$…
Lumber Futures slid 1.00% on September 9, pulling below yesterday's close of $570.88 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.2% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $568.28–$57…
DAX fell 1.20% on September 9, pulling below yesterday's close of $25,874.50. Updated 9/9/26
Mexico's Inflation Rate MoM for August registered at 0.030000%, matching estimates and reversing July's -0.270000%. This marks a shift from contraction in July to slight expansion in August. Market focus remains on upco…
Mexico's Inflation Rate YoY came in at 3.120000% for August, matching estimates and down from July's 3.370000%. This marks a continued deceleration in inflation, extending the downward trend since April's 4.59%. The per…
US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate rose to 6.790000% in August, up from July’s 6.780000%, marking a slight increase. The rate has trended upward since late July, moving from 6.76% to 6.79% over the past five weeks. Mortgage r…
Cotton Futures slid 0.40% on September 9, pulling below yesterday's close of $87.26 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.2% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $86.64–$9…
Ethanol Futures surged 1.00% on September 9, pushing above yesterday's close of $2.06 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.0% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $2.08–$2.1…
EUR/SCR slid 2.00% on September 9, pulling below yesterday's close of 16.7400 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.8% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of 14.0231–16.2095; c…