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Australia raised its interest rate to 4.85% at the November 3 decision, matching the consensus estimate of 4.85% and lifting the policy setting above its previous level rather than holding the rate unchanged. The decision increased the rate from 4.6% to 4.85%, establishing a higher benchmark at this announcement without establishing which month the preceding setting took effect or how long policymakers maintained that earlier rate. The increase marks an upward move in the policy rate, while its alignment with consensus distinguishes the direction of the decision from its surprise relative to the forecast for this particular announcement. The policy rate itself constitutes the headline measure, rather than a composite of sector readings, and the announcement figures alone do not identify inflation, wages, employment, or another economic variable as the driver. In broader monetary-policy terms, the higher setting represents tightening relative to the previous rate, but the available readings do not establish a year-earlier comparison, a twelve-month average, or the inflation-adjusted level of interest rates. The 4.85% rate now defines the announced policy setting, while the matching consensus describes expectations for this completed decision rather than current market pricing for subsequent meetings or a commitment by policymakers to another increase. Updated 11/3/26
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In-range ~60% (backtest)
Data as of
CBOE VIX came in at 21.15Index, up from previous 19.42Index. High impact.
10Y-3M Treasury Spread came in at 0.74%, up from previous 0.7%. High impact.
Fed Funds Daily came in at 3.88%, unchanged from previous 3.88%. High impact.
High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) came in at 3.43%, down from previous 3.44%. High impact.
Milk Futures surged 17.30% on November 4, pushing above yesterday's close of $15.19 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.0% over 30 days. Updated 11/4/26
CHF/MXN surged 2.20% on November 4, pushing above yesterday's close of 22.6516 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. Updated 11/4/26
NZD/CHF slid 1.20% on November 4, pulling below yesterday's close of 0.4612 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. Updated 11/4/26
EUR/COP surged 2.30% on November 4, pushing above yesterday's close of 3574.25 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.2% over 30 days. Updated 11/4/26
USD/ETB slid 1.70% on November 4, pulling below yesterday's close of 164.14 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.2% over 30 days. Updated 11/4/26
CAKE/USD last closed at $1.84 on November 3 (−0.7% on the day).
CBOE Volatility Index fell 1.50% on November 4, pulling below yesterday's close of $21.1500. Updated 11/4/26
ETH/USD last closed at $2,253.69 on November 3 (+0.0% on the day).
China S&P Global Services PMI actual 50.8 vs 51.5 expected and 51.6 prior.
ENPH rose 8.90% on November 3, pushing above yesterday's close of $27.95 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.9% over 30 days. Updated 11/4/26
Australia's Ai Group Industry Index for September plunged to -24.200000, missing the estimate of -4.000000 and down sharply from August's -3.500000. The index signals a deep contraction in manufacturing activity compare…
New Zealand's Unemployment Rate rose to 5.600% in August 2026, missing the 5.400% estimate and up from May's 5.300%. This increase marks a continued upward trend since February's 5.400%, indicating a weakening labor mar…
New Zealand's Employment Change QoQ rose to 0.500000% in August, beating the 0.200000% estimate and previous 0.200000% reading. August's 0.5% marks a significant acceleration from May's 0.2%, indicating stronger labor m…
US API Crude Oil Stock Change for October showed an actual draw of -2.031 million barrels, missing the estimate of 0.800 million barrels. This represents a smaller inventory decline compared to September's -4.930 millio…
FTSE 100 fell 1.00% on November 3, pulling below yesterday's close of $10,761.33. Updated 11/3/26
HOT/TRY surged 23.70% on November 3, pushing above yesterday's close of $0.02152 — vs an avg daily swing of ±2.4% over 30 days. Updated 11/3/26
RVTY rose 12.40% on November 3, pushing above yesterday's close of $151.67 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.5% over 30 days. Updated 11/3/26