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US core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month in July 2026, matching the consensus estimate of 0.2%. The July increase followed a flat 0.0% reading in June 2026, marking a 0.2 percentage point acceleration in the monthly pace of core price gains. This outcome keeps US core inflation on a relatively subdued short-term path compared with earlier periods of stronger monthly advances, reinforcing a picture of contained underlying price pressures. Within the US consumer price basket, core CPI typically reflects services and core goods excluding food and energy, but the latest release does not provide a detailed breakdown of which specific sub-components drove the July move. Compared with readings over the past year, the July result aligns with a broader disinflationary trend in the United States, occurring alongside tighter financial conditions and a cooling in some interest-rate-sensitive sectors. Market participants now track how this in-line core CPI print shapes expectations for Federal Reserve policy deliberations and upcoming US data on headline CPI, personal consumption expenditures prices, and labor market conditions. Updated 8/12/26
7 models · 1,456 instruments · 6 timeframes
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Economic Data
Sigmacast 7-day expected-move ranges, widest first · magnitude & recent character (not a direction call)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
Data as of
COTI/USD surged 47.60% on August 12, pushing above yesterday's close of $0.010010 — vs an avg daily swing of ±2.3% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $0.010393–$0.0…
TPL fell 6.80% on August 12, pulling below yesterday's close of $364.95 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.6% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $287.49–$341.16; curr…
Coffee Futures slid 0.60% on August 12, pulling below yesterday's close of $319.21 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.3% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $315.05–$4…
CBOE Volatility Index fell 3.30% on August 12, pulling below yesterday's close of $15.2800. Updated 8/12/26
IOTX/BTC surged 25.00% on August 12, pushing above yesterday's close of $0.000000 — vs an avg daily swing of ±1.5% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $0.000000–$…
SMCI rose 13.80% on August 12, pushing above yesterday's close of $31.68 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.7% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $37.27–$52.93; current …
FSLR fell 5.90% on August 12, pulling below yesterday's close of $240.81 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.6% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $245.10–$487.14; cur…
Russia Gross Domestic Product YoY actual 1.3 and -0.2 prior.
Russia Inflation Rate MoM actual 0.5 vs 0.6 expected and 0.9 prior.
Russia Inflation Rate YoY actual 6 vs 6 expected and 6 prior.
Russia GDP Growth Rate YoY actual 1.3 vs 0.2 expected and -0.2 prior.
Russia CPI MoM actual 0.5 and 0.9 prior.
Russia CPI YoY actual 6 and 6 prior.
United States Budget Balance actual -432 vs -348.3 expected and -120 prior.
United States Monthly Budget Statement actual -432 vs -346 expected and -120 prior.
US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change rose to 2.479 million barrels in August, sharply beating the estimate of -1.5 million and reversing July’s drawdown of -7.167 million barrels. August’s build contrasts with July’s signific…
US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change for August showed an actual draw of -1.643 million barrels, missing the estimate of -1.300 million and reversing July’s build of 0.007 million barrels. This marks a shift from a slight inve…
Orange Juice Futures slid 1.00% on August 12, pulling below yesterday's close of $140.12 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.4% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $139…
NASDAQ 100 rose 0.90% on August 12, pushing above yesterday's close of $29,525.48. Updated 8/12/26
AUD/BRL surged 1.30% on August 12, pushing above yesterday's close of 3.6100 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of 3.5343–3.7077; curr…
USD/GHS slid 2.80% on August 12, pulling below yesterday's close of 11.6800 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.2% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of 11.4102–11.8338; cur…