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Japan’s consumer confidence index registered 35.4 in September 2026, beating the consensus estimate of 35.3 in the October 5 release, even as the headline measure lost ground compared with the previous month. The index fell from 35.5 in August to 35.4 in September, delivering a smaller decline than the consensus implied but leaving household sentiment below its preceding reading rather than recording an improvement. September’s decline establishes a monthly deterioration in confidence, although the two readings alone do not establish a sustained trend, and the index does not measure economic expansion or contraction through a purchasing managers’ survey threshold. The Japanese survey tracks households’ views on overall livelihood, income growth, employment and willingness to buy durable goods, but the headline figures do not identify which component drove September’s decline or how those components changed. The figures provide neither a year-earlier reading nor a twelve-month average for comparison, limiting historical context, while household confidence offers a perspective on consumer attitudes rather than a direct measure of actual spending or income. Looking ahead, household spending figures and subsequent confidence releases provide related measures to monitor, but this confidence reading alone establishes neither current market interest-rate pricing nor the Bank of Japan’s policy stance or forthcoming release dates. Updated 10/5/26
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Sigmacast 7-day expected-move ranges, widest first · magnitude & recent character (not a direction call)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
Data as of
CBOE Volatility Index rose 1.60% on October 5, pushing above yesterday's close of $15.3100. Updated 10/5/26
SAND/TRY slid 12.50% on October 5, pulling below yesterday's close of $3.7400 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.7% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $3.5049–$5.1660…
Orange Juice Futures slid 1.30% on October 5, pulling below yesterday's close of $139.91 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.2% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $134…
Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.50% on October 5, pulling below yesterday's close of $51,176.96. Updated 10/5/26
NZD/BRL slid 4.90% on October 5, pulling below yesterday's close of 2.9300 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.2% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of 2.8506–3.0012; curren…
RVN/BTC surged 50.00% on October 5, pushing above yesterday's close of $0.000000 — vs an avg daily swing of ±4.4% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $-0.000000–$…
STRK/USD slid 8.10% on October 5, pulling below yesterday's close of $0.058710 — vs an avg daily swing of ±1.0% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $0.035097–$0.0508…
PTC rose 35.30% on October 5, pushing above yesterday's close of $144.06 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.4% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $144.06–$152.47; curren…
CHRW fell 9.60% on October 5, pulling below yesterday's close of $157.69 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.5% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $156.62–$161.81; cur…
The US ISM Services PMI for August came in at 55.400000, beating the estimate of 54.300000 and rising from July’s 54.100000. This marks continued expansion in the services sector, with August’s reading strengthening aft…
Brazil's S&P Global Services PMI for August came in at 50.500000, beating the estimate of 51.000000 and rising from July's 49.700000. The reading indicates a return to expansion territory after contraction in July, refl…
Natural Gas surged 1.20% on October 5, pushing above yesterday's close of $3.03 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.2% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $3.03–$3.06; cur…
Palladium Spot slid 0.60% on October 5, pulling below yesterday's close of $1,188.32 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.3% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $1,150.7…
Brent Futures surged 0.40% on October 5, pushing above yesterday's close of $102.00 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.2% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $101.54–$102…
TER rose 8.10% on October 5, pushing above yesterday's close of $415.54 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.5% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $449.05–$524.13; current…
WDC fell 10.20% on October 5, pulling below yesterday's close of $462.38 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.8% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $395.46–$417.40; cur…
Sugar Futures surged 1.10% on October 5, pushing above yesterday's close of $19.93 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $19.92–$20.49…
Gasoline Futures slid 0.30% on October 5, pulling below yesterday's close of $3.31 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.2% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $3.31–$3.3…
DAX fell 0.40% on October 5, pulling below yesterday's close of $25,273.00. Updated 10/5/26
MINA/USD surged 6.80% on October 5, pushing above yesterday's close of $0.157700 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.8% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $0.138913–$0.19…
Turkey's Balance of Trade for September came in at -5.240 billion TRY, beating the estimate of -7.000 billion TRY. This improves from August's deficit of -7.3 billion TRY, signaling a narrowing trade gap. The smaller sh…