Loading page content
China Trade Surplus Rises to $125.62 B, Beats Consensus $121 B
China’s trade surplus for June 2026 reached $125.62 billion, exceeding the market consensus of $121 billion. The surplus widened from $105.43 billion in May, marking a $20.19 billion increase month‑over‑month. This gain extended the steady expansion in China’s external balance observed through the second quarter of 2026. Stronger export growth in electronics and machinery outpaced a moderate rise in imports, driving the larger surplus. Compared with the 12‑month average of roughly $110 billion, June’s figure signaled resilient external demand despite global trade headwinds. Markets will watch July’s customs data and any policy guidance from the People’s Bank of China for further insight into trade momentum. Updated 7/14/26
THE MARKET
FORECAST ENGINE
7 models · 1,456 instruments · 6 timeframes
EXPECTED MOVES
7-Day Range · July 21, 2026LIVE
BTC/USD Down · 2H58639.95–64967.17
AAPL Up · 2H313.66–340.00
XAU/USD Down · 2H3995.36–4243.60
EUR/USD Down · 2H1.1314–1.1491
Market Forecasts
1,456+
instruments tracked
1M+
forecasts scored
7
ensemble models
5
asset classes
Economic Data
4,151
economic indicators
127
countries covered
6
data sources
FRED · BLS · EIA · ECB · BOJ · FMP
Today's Biggest Expected Moves
Sigmacast 7-day expected-move ranges, widest first · magnitude & recent character (not a direction call)
7-DAY RANGELIVEJul 14, 2026 – Jul 21, 2026
Last updated: Jul 14, 2026 06:06 AM UTCView All 1,456 →
BTC/USD Down · 2H
62297.51expected move ±5.1%
Expected Move (7-Day)
58639.9564967.17
In-range ~60% (backtest)
AAPL Up · 2H
317.42expected move ±4.1%
Expected Move (7-Day)
313.66340.00
In-range ~60% (backtest)
XAU/USD Down · 2H
4015.53expected move ±3.1%
Expected Move (7-Day)
3995.364243.60
EUR/USD Down · 2H
1.1392expected move ±0.8%
Expected Move (7-Day)
1.13141.1491
In-range ~60% (backtest)
