China GDP Growth Falls to 4.3% Year‑on‑Year in Q2 2026

China’s gross domestic product grew 4.3% year‑on‑year in the second quarter of 2026, missing the market consensus of 4.5%. The pace eased from 5.0% in the first quarter, marking a 0.7‑percentage‑point slowdown. This moderation extended the deceleration seen since late 2025 as post‑pandemic momentum cooled. Industrial output and real‑estate investment remained soft, while consumer spending provided partial support to overall activity. Compared with the 12‑month average growth rate of about 4.7%, the latest reading underscored uneven recovery amid subdued external demand and domestic policy adjustments. Investors now focus on upcoming July activity data and any fiscal or monetary guidance from the People’s Bank of China following the GDP release. Updated 7/15/26

THE MARKET

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7 models · 1,456 instruments · 6 timeframes

EXPECTED MOVES

7-Day Range · July 22, 2026LIVE

BTC/USD Up · 2H59863.45–66085.41

AAPL Up · 2H313.66–340.00

EUR/USD Sideways · 2H1.1312–1.1486

XAU/USD Down · 2H4006.30–4040.96

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Market Forecasts

1,456+

instruments tracked

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forecasts scored

7

ensemble models

5

asset classes

Economic Data

4,151

economic indicators

127

countries covered

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data sources

FRED · BLS · EIA · ECB · BOJ · FMP

Today's Biggest Expected Moves

Sigmacast 7-day expected-move ranges, widest first · magnitude & recent character (not a direction call)

7-DAY RANGELIVEJul 15, 2026 – Jul 22, 2026

Last updated: Jul 15, 2026 06:05 AM UTCView All 1,456 →

BTC/USD Up · 2H

64565.99expected move ±4.8%

Expected Move (7-Day)

59863.4566085.41

In-range ~60% (backtest)

314.92expected move ±4.2%

Expected Move (7-Day)

In-range ~60% (backtest)

EUR/USD Sideways · 2H

1.1440expected move ±0.8%

Expected Move (7-Day)

In-range ~60% (backtest)

XAU/USD Down · 2H

4037.67expected move ±0.4%

Expected Move (7-Day)