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Japan reported annual inflation of 2% for August 2026, below the supplied consensus estimate of 2.1%, as the latest reading showed consumer prices above their year-earlier level without an acceleration in the headline annual rate. The August rate matched July’s 2% reading, leaving annual inflation unchanged between the two reporting periods; these figures compare prices with a year earlier rather than measure the price change from July to August. The consecutive 2% readings establish stability in the annual inflation rate over those months, not stability in the price level itself, and inflation does not use the 50-point expansion threshold associated with purchasing managers’ indexes. The headline figure alone does not identify a category driving the result, so attributing August’s reading to food, energy, services or goods would require component figures and their contributions to the overall annual price increase. August’s 2% rate compares consumer prices with August 2025 and provides context for household purchasing power, although assessing changes in real incomes also requires wage information rather than treating the inflation reading as a measure of spending strength. For the policy outlook, the unchanged headline rate alone establishes neither the Bank of Japan’s current stance nor market interest-rate pricing; those assessments require separate policy communications and market data alongside detailed inflation releases. Updated 9/17/26
7 models · 1,456 instruments · 6 timeframes
Market Forecasts
Economic Data
Sigmacast 7-day expected-move ranges, widest first · magnitude & recent character (not a direction call)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
Data as of
USD/SCR surged 1.50% on September 18, pushing above yesterday's close of 14.3400 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.3% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of 16.0477–18.7175…
JPY/LBP slid 2.10% on September 18, pulling below yesterday's close of 577.25 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.3% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of 561.37–600.11; …
Brent Futures surged 0.30% on September 18, pushing above yesterday's close of $102.17 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.2% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $105.93–$…
Sugar Futures slid 0.10% on September 18, pulling below yesterday's close of $17.43 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.3% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $17.96–$1…
COTI/USD slid 11.70% on September 18, pulling below yesterday's close of $0.025350 — vs an avg daily swing of ±2.4% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $0.027804–…
Palladium Spot surged 0.40% on September 18, pushing above yesterday's close of $1,312.75 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.2% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $1,287…
United Kingdom Retail Sales MoM actual 0.5 vs -0.2 expected and -0.5 prior.
Germany Producer Price Index YoY actual 4.6 vs 4.1 expected and 3 prior.
United Kingdom Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM actual 0.6 vs -0.2 expected and -0.9 prior.
United Kingdom Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY actual 2.7 vs 1.9 expected and 1.8 prior.
United Kingdom Retail Sales YoY actual 2.4 vs 1.9 expected and 1.2 prior.
China FDI actual -5.3 vs -5.8 expected and -6.2 prior.
Fed Total Assets (Balance Sheet) came in at 6746548M, up from previous 6740619M. High impact.
CBOE VIX came in at 17.71Index, up from previous 17.2Index. High impact.
10Y-3M Treasury Spread came in at 0.87%, down from previous 0.89%. High impact.
10Y-3M Treasury Spread came in at 0.82%, down from previous 0.87%. High impact.
Fed Funds Daily came in at 3.63%, unchanged from previous 3.63%. High impact.
High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) came in at 2.7%, down from previous 2.76%. High impact.
USD/PGK surged 1.40% on September 18, pushing above yesterday's close of 4.4500 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of 4.1603–4.6011; c…
Cheese Futures surged 0.50% on September 18, pushing above yesterday's close of $1.51 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $1.52–$…
IOTX/BTC slid 25.00% on September 18, pulling below yesterday's close of $0.000000 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.8% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $0.000000–$0.…