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China Trade Surplus Rises to $125.62 B, Beats Consensus $121 B
China’s trade surplus for June 2026 reached $125.62 billion, exceeding the market consensus of $121 billion. The surplus widened from $105.43 billion in May, marking a $20.19 billion increase month‑over‑month. This gain extended the steady expansion in China’s external balance observed through the second quarter of 2026. Stronger export growth in electronics and machinery outpaced a moderate rise in imports, driving the larger surplus. Compared with the 12‑month average of roughly $110 billion, June’s figure signaled resilient external demand despite global trade headwinds. Markets will watch July’s customs data and any policy guidance from the People’s Bank of China for further insight into trade momentum. Updated 7/14/26
THE MARKET
FORECAST ENGINE
7 models · 1,456 instruments · 6 timeframes
EXPECTED MOVES
7-Day Range · July 22, 2026LIVE
BTC/USD Up · 2H58639.95–64967.17
AAPL Up · 2H313.66–340.00
EUR/USD Sideways · 2H1.1312–1.1486
XAU/USD Down · 2H4006.30–4040.96
Market Forecasts
1,456+
instruments tracked
1M+
forecasts scored
7
ensemble models
5
asset classes
Economic Data
4,151
economic indicators
127
countries covered
6
data sources
FRED · BLS · EIA · ECB · BOJ · FMP
Today's Biggest Expected Moves
Sigmacast 7-day expected-move ranges, widest first · magnitude & recent character (not a direction call)
7-DAY RANGELIVEJul 15, 2026 – Jul 22, 2026
Last updated: Jul 15, 2026 06:05 AM UTCView All 1,456 →
BTC/USD Up · 2H
64565.99expected move ±4.9%
Expected Move (7-Day)
58639.9564967.17
In-range ~60% (backtest)
AAPL Up · 2H
314.92expected move ±4.2%
Expected Move (7-Day)
313.66340.00
In-range ~60% (backtest)
EUR/USD Sideways · 2H
1.1440expected move ±0.8%
Expected Move (7-Day)
1.13121.1486
In-range ~60% (backtest)
XAU/USD Down · 2H
4037.67expected move ±0.4%
Expected Move (7-Day)
4006.304040.96
