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Data from Destatis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany Industrial Production YoY fell to -3.53% in June 2025
DestatisMonthlyReleased August 2025
Germany Industrial Production YoY fell to -3.53% in June 2025, released August 2025, down 3.53% from May's 0.0% reading. The reading missed the -0.6% consensus by 2.93%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.34%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production YoY averaged -0.41%, vs -1.97% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
-3.53
Actual
-0.6
Consensus
0
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1 percentage points
across last 10 releases
Last Call
Aug 2025
Predicted: -0.6
Actual: -3.53
Error: +2.93
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.96 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.81 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.76 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.75 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production YoY (Germany) was reported at 0.11% in July 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.76%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.76%, ranging from -4.2% to 1.53% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.51%, down from the prior three at 0.36%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.75%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.71%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 10 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Aug 3) and Retail Sales YoY (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Industrial Production YoY - DE
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About Industrial Production YoY — Germany
DEFINITION
Industrial Production YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of a country's industrial sector, which is a crucial component of its overall economic performance. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can signal potential shifts in the economy and help inform business and investment decisions. A positive YoY growth in industrial production indicates a strong and expanding industrial sector, while a negative growth may suggest a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.11 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -0.54 %. Before that (Mar 2026): -2.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100, r=-0.96) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - DE Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.75 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.75 | High |
| 12:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.80 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.9 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | HICP MoM | 0.9 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | HICP YoY | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.80 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | CPI MoM | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.75 | High |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:55 | DE | Unemployment Rate | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.35 | Medium |
| 07:55 | DE | Employment Change | 6 | -1 | 5 | 5.50 | Medium |
| 07:55 | DE | Unemployed Persons | 2.993 | 2.987 | 2.989 | 2.99 | Medium |