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Data from Eurostat. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Core Inflation Rate YoY fell to 2.4% in August 2026
EurostatMonthlyReleased September 2026
Eurozone Core Inflation Rate YoY fell to 2.4% in August 2026, released September 2026, down 0.1% from July's 2.5% reading. The reading matched expectations. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 0.1%. Over the past 3 months, Core Inflation Rate YoY averaged 2.5%, vs 2.32% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 58th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.4
Actual
2.5
Consensus
2.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 2.53
Actual: 2.4
Error: +0.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core Inflation Rate YoY (European Union) was reported at 2.4% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.5% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.37%, ranging from 2.2% to 2.6% across 21 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.47%, down from the prior three at 2.5%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.1%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.18%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Core Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 3.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include ECB President Lagarde Speech (Sep 11) and ECB Lagarde Speech (Sep 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Core Inflation Rate YoY - EU
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About Core Inflation Rate YoY — European Union
DEFINITION
The Core Inflation Rate YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services over a 12-month period, excluding volatile items such as food and energy. It provides a more accurate and stable representation of overall inflation trends, allowing businesses and policymakers to make informed decisions about economic policies and investments. This indicator is widely used by financial analysts and investors to assess the health of an economy and predict future inflation levels.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 2.4 %, consensus 2.5 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 2.5 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 2.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Thursday, September 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:15 | EU | Marginal Lending Rate | 2.9 | 2.65 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Low |
| 12:15 | EU | Interest Rate Decision | 2.65 | 2.4 | 2.65 | 2.65 | High |
| 12:15 | EU | Deposit Facility Rate | 2.5 | 2.25 | 2.5 | 2.50 | High |