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Data from Eurostat. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Core Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 2.5% in July 2026
EurostatMonthlyReleased August 2026
Eurozone Core Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 2.5% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.1% from June's 2.4% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.35%. Over the past 3 months, Core Inflation Rate YoY averaged 2.5%, vs 2.29% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 74th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.5
Actual
2.5
Consensus
2.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 2.54
Actual: 2.5
Error: +0.04
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core Inflation Rate YoY (European Union) was reported at 2.5% in August 2026. This matched the market consensus of 2.5% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.37%, ranging from 2.2% to 2.6% across 21 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.47%, up from the prior three at 2.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.1%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.18%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Core Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 3.02%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (Aug 27) and Economic Sentiment (Aug 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Core Inflation Rate YoY - EU
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About Core Inflation Rate YoY — European Union
DEFINITION
The Core Inflation Rate YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services over a 12-month period, excluding volatile items such as food and energy. It provides a more accurate and stable representation of overall inflation trends, allowing businesses and policymakers to make informed decisions about economic policies and investments. This indicator is widely used by financial analysts and investors to assess the health of an economy and predict future inflation levels.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 2.5 %, consensus 2.5 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 2.5 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 2.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.57) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Thursday, August 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | EU | Loans to Companies YoY | 4 | 3.8 | 3.80 | Low | |
| 08:00 | EU | Loans to Households YoY | 3 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Low | |
| 08:00 | EU | M3 Money Supply YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 08:00 | EU | Private sector loans YoY | 3 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Low | |