What is the current Core Inflation Rate YoY for European Union?

Name: European Union Core Inflation Rate YoY
Creator: Sigmanomics
License: https://sigmanomics.com/terms-of-use

The latest European Union Core Inflation Rate YoY value is 2.3, released on 3/31/2026.

Key Takeaways: EU core inflation eased to 2.3% YoY in March 2026, down from February’s 2.4%. The reading sits just above the 12-month average, with services and food as primary drivers. Market reaction was muted, as the figure aligns with consensus and ECB targets.

EU Core Inflation Rate YoY: March 2026 Data Shows Slight Cooling

Table of Contents

Big-Picture Snapshot
Foundational Indicators
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Closing Thoughts

Big-Picture Snapshot

March 2026 core inflation: 2.3% YoY
February 2026: 2.4% YoY
12-month average: 2.31%
Lowest in last four months: 2.2% (February 2026)
Highest in last six months: 2.4% (multiple readings)
Consensus estimate: 2.4% YoY

Drivers this month

Services: +0.11pp
Processed foods: +0.07pp
Non-energy industrial goods: +0.03pp
Energy: flat

Policy pulse

Core inflation remains above the ECB’s 2% target, but the gap has narrowed. The March reading marks a return to January’s level, after a brief uptick in early March.

Market lens

Eurozone bond yields held steady after the release. Investors saw the print as confirmation of a gradual disinflation trend, with no immediate shift in rate expectations.

Foundational Indicators

March 2026: 2.3% YoY
February 2026: 2.4% YoY
January 2026: 2.3% YoY
December 2025: 2.4% YoY
November 2025: 2.4% YoY
Lowest in period: 2.2% (February 2026)

Drivers this month

Services inflation remains the largest contributor
Food prices rose modestly
Energy prices were unchanged

Policy pulse

With core inflation hovering just above target, the ECB’s stance remains data-dependent. The steady trend since late 2025 supports a cautious approach.

Market lens

Equities showed little reaction to the data. The reading matched market expectations, reinforcing the view that inflation risks are contained for now.

Chart Dynamics

March’s 2.3% YoY print edged down from February’s 2.4%, matching January’s level and sitting just above the 12-month average of 2.31%. The last six months show a narrow range, with core inflation oscillating between 2.2% and 2.4%.

Volatility has diminished since late 2025, as the indicator stabilized after a period of sharper swings earlier in the year. The March figure confirms a mild cooling trend, with no abrupt moves in either direction.

Core Inflation Rate YoY trend (Nov 2025–Mar 2026)

Line chart showing EU Core Inflation Rate YoY from November 2025 to March 2026, ranging between 2.2% and 2.4%, with a slight dip in February and March 2026.

What This Chart Tells Us: The EU’s core inflation rate has settled into a tight band since November, with only minor monthly fluctuations. The March reading reinforces the view that underlying price pressures are moderating, but not yet fully aligned with the ECB’s target.

Forward Outlook

Bullish scenario (25–35%): Core inflation dips below 2.2% in coming months, driven by easing services and food prices.
Base scenario (50–60%): Indicator remains in the 2.2–2.4% range through mid-2026, reflecting stable but slightly elevated underlying pressures.
Bearish scenario (10–20%): Core inflation rebounds above 2.4% if wage growth or supply shocks re-emerge.

Upside risks include persistent wage growth and renewed food price pressures. Downside risks stem from weaker consumer demand and normalization in services inflation. Data sourced from Sigmanomics and Eurostat, using harmonized methodology for EU core inflation calculations.

Closing Thoughts

March’s core inflation print signals continued progress toward the ECB’s price stability goal, though the journey is not yet complete. The indicator’s recent stability offers reassurance to policymakers and markets, but vigilance remains warranted as underlying drivers evolve.

Key Markets Reacting to Core Inflation Rate YoY

Core inflation data shapes expectations across asset classes. Eurozone equities, the euro itself, and select cryptocurrencies all respond to shifts in underlying price pressures. Below are key tradable symbols with direct or indirect exposure to EU inflation dynamics.

AAPL: Sensitive to global inflation trends and European consumer demand.
EURUSD: Directly reflects shifts in eurozone inflation and ECB policy outlook.
BTCUSD: Sometimes viewed as a hedge against fiat currency debasement, reacts to inflation surprises.

Year	Core Inflation Rate YoY (%)	EURUSD (avg)
2020	0.7	1.14
2021	1.2	1.18
2022	2.6	1.05
2023	3.0	1.08
2024	2.5	1.09
2025	2.4	1.07

Since 2020, periods of higher core inflation have coincided with a weaker euro, highlighting the currency’s sensitivity to price pressures and ECB policy shifts.

FAQ: EU Core Inflation Rate YoY: March 2026 Data Shows Slight Cooling

What is the EU Core Inflation Rate YoY for March 2026?: The EU’s core inflation rate for March 2026 was 2.3% year-over-year, down from 2.4% in February.
Why did core inflation ease in March 2026?: Services and food prices contributed to the moderation, while energy prices remained flat. The reading aligns with the 12-month trend.
How does the March 2026 figure compare to the ECB’s target?: At 2.3%, core inflation is slightly above the ECB’s 2% target but shows a gradual move toward price stability.

EU core inflation continues to cool, but remains just above the ECB’s target.

Updated 3/31/26

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Sigmanomics Economic Data: EU Core Inflation Rate YoY, March 2026. Accessed 3/31/26.
Eurostat, Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) Core Inflation, March 2026 release.

Economic Calendar - EU Events

Monday, March 30, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:00	EU	Selling Price Expectations	19.7	12.3	15	16.03	Low
09:00	EU	Industrial Sentiment	-7	-7.2	-8	-7.48	Low
09:00	EU	Consumer Confidence	-16.3	-12.2	-16.3	-16.38	Low
09:00	EU	Consumer Inflation Expectation	43.4	26.2	32	33.85	Low
09:00	EU	Services Sentiment	4.9	5	3.9	3.68	Low
09:00	EU	Economic Sentiment	96.6	98.2	96.8	96.40	Medium
Friday, March 27, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:00	EU	M3 Money Supply YoY	-	3.3	3.4	3.40	Low
09:00	EU	Consumer Inflation Expectation	2.5	2.6	2.5	4.35	Low
Thursday, March 26, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:00	EU	Loans to Households YoY	3	3	3.1	3.08	Low
09:00	EU	Loans to Companies YoY	2.9	2.8	2.8	2.75	Low
09:00	EU	M3 Money Supply YoY	3	3.3	3.3	3.30	Low
09:00	EU	Private sector loans YoY	3	3	3.1	3.05	Low
Tuesday, March 24, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:00	EU	HCOB Services PMI	-	51.9	51.1	51.05	Medium
09:00	EU	HCOB Composite PMI	-	51.9	51	51.00	Medium
09:00	EU	HCOB Manufacturing PMI	-	50.8	51.5	51.65	Medium
09:00	EU	S&P Global Composite PMI	50.5	51.9	51	50.75	Medium
09:00	EU	S&P Global Services PMI	50.1	51.9	51.1	50.60	Medium
09:00	EU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	51.4	50.8	49.4	50.40	Medium
05:00	EU	New Car Sales YoY	1.4	-3.9	-6	-2.30	Medium
Monday, March 23, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
15:00	EU	Consumer Confidence	-	-12.2	-15	-15.08	Medium
Friday, March 20, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	EU	Balance of Trade	-1.9	11.2	12.8	9.57	Medium
09:00	EU	Current Account	13	33.7	7.5	9.27	Low
09:00	EU	Current Account s.a	37.9	13.3	17.2	27.55	Low
Thursday, March 19, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
13:15	EU	ECB Interest Rate Decision	2.15	2.15	2.15	2.15	High
13:15	EU	Deposit Facility Rate	2	2	2	2.00	High
13:15	EU	Marginal Lending Rate	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.40	Low
13:15	EU	Interest Rate Decision	2.15	2.15	2.15	2.15	High
10:00	EU	Labour Cost Index YoY	3.3	3.4	3	3.15	Low
10:00	EU	Construction Output YoY	-1.9	0.7	-0.2	-1.05	Low
10:00	EU	Wage Growth YoY	3	3.2	2.8	2.90	Low
Wednesday, March 18, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	EU	CPI	100.71	100.07	100.72	100.75	High
10:00	EU	Core Inflation Rate YoY	2.4	2.2	2.4	2.43	Low
10:00	EU	Inflation Rate YoY	1.9	1.7	1.9	1.93	Low
10:00	EU	Inflation Rate MoM	0.6	-0.6	0.7	0.72	Low
10:00	EU	HICP MoM	0.6	-0.8	0.7	-0.35	Low
10:00	EU	HICP YoY	2.3	2.1	2.3	2.27	Low
04:00	EU	HICP YoY	-	2.1	2.3	2.27	Low
04:00	EU	HICP MoM	-	-0.8	0.7	-0.35	Low
Tuesday, March 17, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	EU	ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	-8.5	39.4	24	19.78	Medium
10:00	EU	Economic Sentiment	-	39.4	26.5	26.10	Medium
Friday, March 13, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	EU	Industrial Production YoY	-1.2	2.2	1.4	1.00	Low
10:00	EU	Industrial Production MoM	-1.5	-0.6	0.6	0.25	Medium
Monday, March 9, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	EU	Sentix Investors Sentiment	-3.1	4.2	-3.1	-1.82	Low
08:30	EU	Sentix Investors Sentiment	-	4.2	-3.1	-1.82	Low
Friday, March 6, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	EU	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.27	Medium
11:00	EU	Gross Domestic Product YoY	1.2	1.4	1.3	1.27	Medium
10:00	EU	GDP Growth Rate QoQ	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.30	Low
10:00	EU	Employment Change YoY	0.7	0.6	0.7	0.75	Low
10:00	EU	GDP Growth Rate YoY	1.2	1.4	1.3	1.27	Low
10:00	EU	Employment Change QoQ	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.23	Low
10:00	EU	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.27	Medium
10:00	EU	Gross Domestic Product YoY	1.2	1.4	1.3	1.27	Medium
03:00	EU	Gross Domestic Product YoY	-	1.4	1.3	1.27	Medium
Thursday, March 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	EU	Retail Sales MoM	-0.1	0.2	0.5	0.30	Medium
10:00	EU	Retail Sales YoY	2	1.8	1.7	1.75	Low
08:30	EU	HCOB Construction PMI	46	45.3	45.9	45.55	Low
Wednesday, March 4, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	EU	Unemployment Rate	6.1	6.2	6.2	6.15	Medium
10:00	EU	Producer Price Index YoY	-2.1	-2	-2.6	-2.50	Low
10:00	EU	Producer Price Index MoM	0.7	-0.3	0.3	0.33	Low
09:00	EU	HCOB Services PMI	51.9	51.6	51.8	51.75	Low
09:00	EU	HCOB Composite PMI	51.9	51.3	51.9	51.90	Low
09:00	EU	PMI	51.9	51.9	51.9	51.93	Medium
09:00	EU	Services PMI	51.9	51.8	51.8	51.75	Medium
Tuesday, March 3, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	EU	CPI	100.72	-1.1	100.5	100.53	Low
10:00	EU	Inflation Rate YoY	1.9	1.7	1.7	1.73	High
10:00	EU	Core Inflation Rate YoY	2.4	2.2	2.2	2.23	Medium
10:00	EU	Inflation Rate MoM	0.7	-0.6	0.4	0.42	Medium
Monday, March 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:00	EU	HCOB Manufacturing PMI	50.8	49.5	50.8	50.95	Low
09:00	EU	Manufacturing PMI	50.8	49.5	50.8	50.97	Low
Friday, February 27, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:00	EU	Loans to Households YoY	-	3	3	2.98	Low
09:00	EU	Loans to Companies YoY	-	3	3	2.95	Low
09:00	EU	M3 Money Supply YoY	-	2.8	2.8	2.80	Low
09:00	EU	Consumer Inflation Expectation	2.6	2.8	2.9	4.75	Low
Thursday, February 26, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	EU	Services Sentiment	5	7.2	7	6.78	Low
10:00	EU	Industrial Sentiment	-7.1	-6.8	-7	-6.48	Low
10:00	EU	Consumer Confidence	-12.2	-12.4	-12.2	-12.28	Low
10:00	EU	Consumer Inflation Expectation	25.8	24.2	22	23.85	Low
10:00	EU	Selling Price Expectations	11.5	10.3	9	10.03	Low
09:00	EU	Loans to Households YoY	3	3	3	2.98	Low
09:00	EU	M3 Money Supply YoY	3.3	2.8	2.8	2.80	Low
09:00	EU	Loans to Companies YoY	2.8	3	3	2.95	Low
09:00	EU	Private sector loans	3	3	3.1	3.12	Low
02:00	EU	Private sector loans	-	3	3.1	3.12	Low
Wednesday, February 25, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	EU	Core Inflation Rate YoY	2.2	2.3	2.2	2.23	Low
10:00	EU	CPI	100.05	100.63	100.1	100.13	Low
10:00	EU	Inflation Rate YoY	1.7	2	1.7	1.73	Low
10:00	EU	Inflation Rate MoM	-0.6	0.2	-0.5	-0.48	Low
10:00	EU	HICP MoM	-0.8	0.2	2.3	1.25	Low
10:00	EU	HICP YoY	2.1	2.3	2.2	2.17	Low
03:00	EU	HICP MoM	-0.8	0.2	2.3	1.25	Low
03:00	EU	HICP YoY	2.1	2.3	2.2	2.17	Low
Tuesday, February 24, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	EU	New Car Registrations YoY	-3.9	5.8	-4.8	-4.35	Medium
Friday, February 20, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:00	EU	HCOB Composite PMI	51.9	51.3	51.7	51.70	Medium
09:00	EU	HCOB Services PMI	51.8	51.6	51.9	51.85	Medium
09:00	EU	HCOB Manufacturing PMI	50.8	49.5	50	50.15	Medium
09:00	EU	Manufacturing PMI	50.8	49.5	49.9	50.07	Medium
09:00	EU	Services PMI	51.8	51.6	51.9	51.85	Medium
09:00	EU	PMI	51.9	51.3	51.5	51.53	Medium
Thursday, February 19, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
15:10	EU	Consumer Confidence	-12.2	-12.4	-11.7	-11.78	Medium
15:00	EU	Consumer Confidence	-12.2	-12.4	-11.7	-11.78	Medium
09:00	EU	Current Account	34.6	8.9	15.1	16.87	Low
Tuesday, February 17, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	EU	ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	39.4	40.8	44	39.78	Medium
10:00	EU	Economic Sentiment	39.4	40.8	45.7	45.30	Medium
Monday, February 16, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	EU	Industrial Production MoM	-1.4	0.3	-1.2	-1.55	Medium
10:00	EU	Industrial Production YoY	1.2	2.2	1.5	1.10	Low
Friday, February 13, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	EU	Employment Change QoQ	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.13	High
10:00	EU	GDP Growth Rate QoQ	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.30	Low
10:00	EU	Employment Change YoY	0.7	0.6	0.5	0.55	High
10:00	EU	GDP Growth Rate YoY	1.3	1.4	1.3	1.27	Low
10:00	EU	Balance of Trade	12.6	9.9	12	8.77	Medium
10:00	EU	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.27	Medium
10:00	EU	Gross Domestic Product YoY	1.3	1.4	1.3	1.27	Medium
Monday, February 9, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	EU	Sentix Investors Sentiment	4.2	-1.8	-0.2	1.08	Low
Thursday, February 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
13:15	EU	Marginal Lending Rate	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.40	Low
13:15	EU	ECB Interest Rate Decision	2.15	2.15	2.15	2.15	High
13:15	EU	Deposit Facility Rate	2	2	2	2.00	High
13:15	EU	Interest Rate Decision	2.15	2.15	2.15	2.15	High
10:00	EU	Retail Sales YoY	1.3	2.4	2	2.05	Low
10:00	EU	Retail Sales MoM	-0.5	0.1	0.2	0.00	Medium
08:30	EU	HCOB Construction PMI	45.3	47.4	48	47.65	Low
Wednesday, February 4, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	EU	Inflation Rate MoM	-0.5	0.2	-0.4	-0.38	Medium
10:00	EU	CPI	100.08	100.63	129	129.03	Low
10:00	EU	Producer Price Index MoM	-0.3	0.7	0.2	0.23	Low
10:00	EU	Producer Price Index YoY	-2.1	-1.4	-2	-1.90	Low
10:00	EU	Core Inflation Rate YoY	2.2	2.3	2.3	2.33	Medium
09:00	EU	HCOB Services PMI	51.6	52.4	51.9	51.85	Low
09:00	EU	HCOB Composite PMI	51.3	51.5	51.5	51.50	Low
09:00	EU	Services PMI	51.6	52.4	51.9	51.85	Medium
09:00	EU	PMI	51.3	51.5	51.5	51.53	Medium
Monday, February 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:00	EU	HCOB Manufacturing PMI	49.5	48.8	49.4	49.55	Low
09:00	EU	Manufacturing PMI	49.5	48.8	49.4	49.57	Medium
Friday, January 30, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	EU	GDP Growth Rate QoQ	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.20	High
10:00	EU	GDP Growth Rate YoY	1.3	1.4	1.4	1.37	High
10:00	EU	Unemployment Rate	6.2	6.3	6.3	6.25	Medium
10:00	EU	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.17	Medium
10:00	EU	Gross Domestic Product YoY	1.3	1.4	1.2	1.17	Medium
09:00	EU	Consumer Inflation Expectation	2.8	2.8	2.8	4.65	Low
Thursday, January 29, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	EU	Consumer Confidence	-12.4	-13.1	-12.4	-12.48	Low
10:00	EU	Selling Price Expectations	10	10.8	11	12.03	Low
10:00	EU	Industrial Sentiment	-6.8	-8.5	-9	-8.48	Low
10:00	EU	Consumer Inflation Expectation	24.1	26.7	25	26.85	Low
09:00	EU	M3 Money Supply YoY	2.8	3	3	3.00	Low
09:00	EU	Loans to Households YoY	3	2.9	3	2.98	Low
09:00	EU	Loans to Companies YoY	3	3.1	3.2	3.15	Low
09:00	EU	Private sector loans	3	2.9	2.9	2.92	Low
Friday, January 23, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
15:00	EU	Consumer Confidence	-	-13.1	-13.6	-13.68	Medium
09:00	EU	HCOB Manufacturing PMI	-	48.8	49.7	49.85	Medium
09:00	EU	HCOB Composite PMI	-	51.5	52.3	52.30	Medium
09:00	EU	HCOB Services PMI	-	52.4	52.9	52.85	Medium
09:00	EU	Manufacturing PMI	-	48.8	49.2	49.37	Medium
09:00	EU	Services PMI	-	52.4	52.6	52.55	Medium
Thursday, January 22, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
15:00	EU	Consumer Confidence	-	-13.1	-13.6	-13.68	Medium
Wednesday, January 21, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:15	EU	New Car Registrations YoY	-	2.1	1	1.45	Medium
Tuesday, January 20, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	EU	ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	40.8	33.7	29	24.78	Medium
10:00	EU	Construction Output YoY	-0.8	0.5	0.9	0.05	Low
10:00	EU	Economic Sentiment	40.8	33.7	36.7	36.30	Medium
09:00	EU	Current Account	12.6	32	27	28.77	Low
09:00	EU	Current Account s.a	-	25.7	25.1	35.45	Low
Monday, January 19, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	EU	Inflation Rate YoY	1.9	2.1	2	2.03	Low
10:00	EU	Core Inflation Rate YoY	2.3	2.4	2.3	2.33	Low
10:00	EU	CPI	129.54	129.33	129.56	129.59	High
10:00	EU	Inflation Rate MoM	0.2	-0.3	0.2	0.22	Low
10:00	EU	HICP MoM	0.2	-0.4	0.2	-0.85	Low
10:00	EU	HICP YoY	2.3	2.4	2.3	2.27	Low
Thursday, January 15, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	EU	Industrial Production MoM	0.7	0.7	0.5	0.15	Medium
10:00	EU	Industrial Production YoY	2.5	1.7	2	1.60	Low
10:00	EU	Balance of Trade	9.9	17.9	15.2	11.97	Medium
Monday, January 12, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	EU	Sentix Investors Sentiment	-1.8	-6.2	-5.1	-3.82	Low
Friday, January 9, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	EU	Retail Sales MoM	0.2	0.3	0.1	-0.10	High
10:00	EU	Retail Sales YoY	2.3	1.9	1.6	1.65	High
Thursday, January 8, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	EU	Services Sentiment	5.6	5.8	5.9	5.68	Low
10:00	EU	Selling Price Expectations	10.9	9.9	10.4	11.43	Low
10:00	EU	Consumer Confidence	-13.1	-12.8	-14.6	-14.68	Low
10:00	EU	Consumer Inflation Expectation	26.7	24.3	23.6	25.45	Low
10:00	EU	Industrial Sentiment	-9	-9.3	-9.1	-8.58	Low
10:00	EU	Economic Sentiment	96.7	97.1	97	96.60	Medium
10:00	EU	Producer Price Index MoM	0.5	0.1	0.2	0.23	Low
10:00	EU	Producer Price Index YoY	-1.7	-0.5	-1.9	-1.80	Low
10:00	EU	Unemployment Rate	6.3	6.4	6.4	6.35	High
09:00	EU	Consumer Inflation Expectation	2.8	2.8	2.7	4.55	Low
Wednesday, January 7, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	EU	Inflation Rate MoM	0.2	-0.3	0.3	0.32	Medium
10:00	EU	Core Inflation Rate YoY	2.3	2.4	2.4	2.43	Medium
10:00	EU	CPI	129.56	129.33	129.6	129.63	High
10:00	EU	Inflation Rate YoY	2	2.1	2	2.03	High
10:00	EU	HICP YoY	2.3	2.4	2.4	2.37	Low
09:00	EU	Consumer Inflation Expectation	-	2.8	2.7	4.55	Low
08:30	EU	HCOB Construction PMI	47.4	45.4	46.9	46.55	Low
Tuesday, January 6, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:00	EU	HCOB Services PMI	52.4	53.6	52.6	52.55	Low
09:00	EU	HCOB Composite PMI	51.5	52.8	51.9	51.90	Low
09:00	EU	Services PMI	52.4	53.6	52.6	52.55	Medium
09:00	EU	PMI	51.5	52.8	51.9	51.93	Medium
Friday, January 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:00	EU	HCOB Manufacturing PMI	48.8	49.6	49.2	49.35	Low
09:00	EU	Loans to Companies YoY	3.1	2.9	2.9	2.85	Low
09:00	EU	Loans to Households YoY	2.9	2.8	2.8	2.78	Low
09:00	EU	M3 Money Supply YoY	3	2.8	2.7	2.70	Low
09:00	EU	Manufacturing PMI	48.8	49.6	49.2	49.37	Medium
09:00	EU	Private sector loans	2.9	2.8	2.8	2.82	Low