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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to -0.2% in Q1 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Eurozone Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to -0.2% in Q1 2026, released June 2026, down 0.3% from December's 0.1% reading. The reading missed the 0.1% consensus by 0.3%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.18%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product QoQ averaged 0.1%, vs 0.25% in the prior 3-month window. Gross Domestic Product QoQ is now the lowest in 15 months.
Latest Release
-0.2
Actual
0.1
Consensus
0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.07 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.1
Actual: -0.2
Error: +0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | INDEX | Bullish DAX | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product QoQ (European Union) was reported at -0.2% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.1% by 0.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.15%, ranging from -0.2% to 0.3% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.03%, down from the prior three at 0.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Jun 16) and Economic Sentiment (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product QoQ - EU
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About Gross Domestic Product QoQ — European Union
DEFINITION
EU Gross Domestic Product QoQ contracted by -0.200000% in May, missing the 0.100000% estimate and reversing April’s 0.100000% growth. This marks a clear downturn from April’s modest expansion, signaling a contraction in economic activity. Market focus will remain on ECB policy adjustments amid this unexpected decline. Updated 6/5/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -0.2 %, consensus 0.1 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 0.1 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.43) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.