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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Gross Domestic Product QoQ climbed to 0.4% in Q2 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Eurozone Gross Domestic Product QoQ climbed to 0.4% in Q2 2026, released July 2026, up 0.6% from March's -0.2% reading. The print exceeded the 0.2% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.16%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product QoQ averaged -0.05%, vs 0.2% in the prior 3-month window. Gross Domestic Product QoQ is now the highest in 12 months.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
0.2
Consensus
-0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.07 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.13
Actual: 0.4
Error: -0.28
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product QoQ (European Union) was reported at 0.4% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.2% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.18%, ranging from -0.2% to 0.4% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.1%, down from the prior three at 0.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.15%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.18%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/JPY (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC EUR speculative net positions (Jul 31) and ECB Economic Bulletin (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product QoQ - EU
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About Gross Domestic Product QoQ — European Union
DEFINITION
The EU's Gross Domestic Product QoQ rose 0.400000% in Q2 2026, beating the 0.200000% estimate and reversing the prior quarter's -0.200000% contraction. This marks a strong rebound from Q1 2026's decline, signaling renewed economic expansion. Market focus will shift to upcoming inflation data and ECB policy decisions amid this growth momentum. Updated 7/30/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): -0.2 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/JPY (Bullish EUR, r=0.47) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | EU | Economic Sentiment | 96.9 | 95.4 | 96 | 96.45 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Services Sentiment | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.25 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Unemployment Rate | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.25 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 30.3 | 34 | 38 | 34.15 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.75 | High |
| 09:00 | EU | Industrial Sentiment | -6.1 | -7.5 | -7 | -6.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Selling Price Expectations | 17.7 | 22.1 | 25 | 21.35 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.30 | High |
| 09:00 | EU | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.30 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Consumer Confidence | -15.9 | -17.6 | -15.9 | -15.90 | Low |