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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone HCOB Services PMI climbed to 51.9 in February 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
Eurozone HCOB Services PMI climbed to 51.9 in February 2026, released March 2026, up 0.3 from January's 51.6 reading. The reading matched the 51.8 consensus. HCOB Services PMI has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, HCOB Services PMI averaged 52.1, vs 52.5 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 61st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
51.9
Actual
51.8
Consensus
51.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.39
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 51.86
Actual: 51.9
Error: -0.04
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HCOB Services PMI (European Union) was reported at 51.90 in March 2026. This beat the market consensus of 51.80 by 0.10. The reading rose from the previous value of 51.60. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 51.96, ranging from 50.50 to 53.60 across 14 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 51.77, down from the prior three at 52.87. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.91) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.09). In March readings over the past 3 years, HCOB Services PMI has averaged 50.84.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, positively correlated (Bullish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.39.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC EUR speculative net positions (Jul 31) and ECB Economic Bulletin (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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HCOB Services PMI - EU
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About HCOB Services PMI — European Union
DEFINITION
HCOB Services PMI is a key economic indicator that measures the performance of the services sector in the HCOB (hypothetical country of business). It provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the services industry, which includes sectors such as healthcare, education, transportation, and hospitality. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it can help forecast economic trends and inform decision-making. A higher PMI reading indicates expansion in the services sector, while a lower reading suggests contraction. Overall, the HCOB Services PMI is an important tool for assessing the economic landscape and making informed financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 51.9, consensus 51.8. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 51.8. Before that (Jan 2026): 51.6.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.43) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | EU | Economic Sentiment | 96.9 | 95.4 | 96 | 96.45 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Services Sentiment | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.25 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Unemployment Rate | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.25 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 30.3 | 34 | 38 | 34.15 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.75 | High |
| 09:00 | EU | Industrial Sentiment | -6.1 | -7.5 | -7 | -6.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Selling Price Expectations | 17.7 | 22.1 | 25 | 21.35 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.30 | High |
| 09:00 | EU | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.30 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Consumer Confidence | -15.9 | -17.6 | -15.9 | -15.90 | Low |