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Data from Eurostat. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Inflation Rate MoM fell to 1.0% in April 2026
EurostatMonthlyReleased May 2026
Eurozone Inflation Rate MoM fell to 1.0% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 0.3% from March's 1.3% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.31%. Over the past 3 months, Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.7%, vs -0.14% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 92nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1
Actual
1
Consensus
1.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.04 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 1.39
Actual: 1.2
Error: +0.19
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| EUR/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate MoM (European Union) was reported at 1% in May 2026. This matched the market consensus of 1% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.12%, ranging from -0.6% to 1.2% across 20 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.83%, up from the prior three at -0.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.39%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.3%). In March readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.66%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/JPY (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/CHF, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.05%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Car Sales YoY (May 27) and ECB Financial Stability Review (May 27).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Inflation Rate MoM - EU
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About Inflation Rate MoM — European Union
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services in a given economy from one month to the next. It is a key measure of inflation and provides insight into the rate at which prices are rising or falling, which can impact consumer purchasing power and overall economic stability. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1 %, consensus 1 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 1.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.