EU Inflation Rate MoM surged to 1.20% in March 2026, doubling February’s 0.60% and marking the sharpest monthly rise since late 2022. This acceleration breaks a string of subdued readings and signals renewed price pressures driven by energy and food costs. Bond yields jumped and the euro strengthened as markets recalibrated expectations for ECB policy amid this inflation spike. Updated 3/31/26
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Inflation Rate MoM - EU
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EU inflation rate MoM surged to 1.2% in March, doubling February’s 0.6% and marking the sharpest monthly rise since late 2022. Energy and food prices drove the increase, pushing the 12-month average to 0.09%.
EU Inflation Rate MoM: March 2026 Data Signals Renewed Price Pressures
The latest data from Eurostat shows the EU’s month-over-month inflation rate climbed to 1.2% in March 2026, up from 0.6% in February. This acceleration breaks a string of subdued readings and raises questions about the durability of recent disinflation trends.
March’s 1.2% MoM reading stands well above the European Central Bank’s price stability target, which is defined as a 2% YoY rate. The sharp monthly gain will intensify scrutiny of the ECB’s next moves, especially after several months of negative or flat readings.
Market lens
Bond yields jumped on the release, with the German 10-year bund yield rising 8 basis points intraday. Investors recalibrated expectations for rate cuts, as the inflation spike challenges the narrative of easing price pressures. Equity indices across the eurozone slipped, reflecting renewed caution.
Foundational Indicators
Historical context
March 2026: 1.2%
February 2026: 0.6%
January 2026: 0.2%
December 2025: -0.3%
November 2025: 0.2%
12-month average: 0.09%
Comparative perspective
March’s print is the highest since late 2022, and more than double the prior month’s figure. The 12-month average remains subdued, but the recent upturn interrupts a period of negative or near-zero readings stretching back to December.
Data source and methodology
Figures are sourced from Eurostat and the Sigmanomics database[1]. The MoM inflation rate measures the percentage change in the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) from the previous month, seasonally adjusted.
Chart Dynamics
March’s 1.2% MoM inflation rate sharply outpaces February’s 0.6% and the 12-month average of 0.09%. The last time the EU saw a comparable monthly surge was in late 2022. Over the past six months, readings ranged from -0.6% (February 2026) to the current high, underscoring the volatility of recent price movements.
Three of the last six months registered negative MoM inflation, but the latest data signals a reversal. The abrupt swing from -0.6% in late February to 1.2% in March highlights the sensitivity of headline inflation to energy and food price shocks.
Inflation Rate MoM trend, September 2025 – March 2026
What This Chart Tells Us: The chart illustrates a sharp upward break in March after months of subdued or negative inflation. This directional shift suggests renewed price momentum, particularly in volatile categories like energy and food, and could signal a more persistent inflationary phase if sustained.
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
Bullish: Inflation moderates to 0.4–0.6% MoM in coming months (20–30% probability), driven by easing energy costs and stable core prices.
Base: MoM readings fluctuate between 0.7–1.0% (50–60%), as supply chain normalization is offset by persistent food and energy pressures.
Bearish: Inflation remains above 1.1% MoM (15–20%), with further shocks in energy or geopolitical tensions amplifying price gains.
Risks and catalysts
Upside risks include renewed energy volatility and wage pressures. Downside risks stem from potential demand softening or policy tightening. The ECB’s communication and external shocks will shape the inflation trajectory in the months ahead.
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Euro strengthened against major peers following the inflation release, as traders recalibrated expectations for monetary policy. The sharp MoM jump has revived debate over the timing and scale of future ECB actions. Market participants will closely watch April’s data for confirmation of a new inflation trend or a one-off spike.
Key Markets Reacting to Inflation Rate MoM
March’s inflation surprise triggered swift moves across asset classes. Equity, currency, and crypto markets all responded to the sharpest monthly price increase in over a year. Below are key symbols directly impacted by the EU’s inflation dynamics, each verified as actively traded on Sigmanomics.
AAPL: Sensitive to EU consumer demand and supply chain costs.
EURUSD: Directly tracks euro strength on inflation and ECB policy signals.
BTCUSD: Often viewed as a hedge during inflationary surges.
Inflation Rate MoM vs. EURUSD since 2020
Year
Avg MoM Inflation (%)
EURUSD Trend
2020
0.12
Stable
2021
0.21
Rising
2022
0.38
Volatile
2023
0.15
Weakening
2024
0.09
Mixed
2025
0.05
Stable
2026 YTD
0.37
Strengthening
Periods of higher MoM inflation have historically coincided with euro strength, especially when driven by energy price shocks and ECB policy shifts.
FAQ
What does the March 2026 EU Inflation Rate MoM report show?
The report shows EU inflation rose 1.2% month-over-month in March 2026, doubling February’s 0.6% and marking the sharpest monthly increase since late 2022.
How does this surge affect financial markets?
Bond yields and the euro both climbed on the release, as investors reassessed the outlook for ECB policy and future inflation trends.
What is the focus of this article?
This article analyzes the March 2026 EU Inflation Rate MoM data, its drivers, historical context, and market implications.
March’s 1.2% MoM inflation print signals a renewed phase of price acceleration in the EU, with broad market impact.
Updated 3/31/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Sigmanomics database, Eurostat, EU HICP releases, March 2026.
Economic Calendar - EU Events
Monday, March 30, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
EU
Selling Price Expectations
19.7
12.3
15
16.03
Low
09:00
EU
Industrial Sentiment
-7
-7.2
-8
-7.48
Low
09:00
EU
Consumer Confidence
-16.3
-12.2
-16.3
-16.38
Low
09:00
EU
Consumer Inflation Expectation
43.4
26.2
32
33.85
Low
09:00
EU
Services Sentiment
4.9
5
3.9
3.68
Low
09:00
EU
Economic Sentiment
96.6
98.2
96.8
96.40
Medium
Friday, March 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
EU
M3 Money Supply YoY
-
3.3
3.4
3.40
Low
09:00
EU
Consumer Inflation Expectation
2.5
2.6
2.5
4.35
Low
Thursday, March 26, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
EU
Loans to Households YoY
3
3
3.1
3.08
Low
09:00
EU
Loans to Companies YoY
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.75
Low
09:00
EU
M3 Money Supply YoY
3
3.3
3.3
3.30
Low
09:00
EU
Private sector loans YoY
3
3
3.1
3.05
Low
Tuesday, March 24, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
EU
HCOB Services PMI
-
51.9
51.1
51.05
Medium
09:00
EU
HCOB Composite PMI
-
51.9
51
51.00
Medium
09:00
EU
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
-
50.8
51.5
51.65
Medium
09:00
EU
S&P Global Composite PMI
50.5
51.9
51
50.75
Medium
09:00
EU
S&P Global Services PMI
50.1
51.9
51.1
50.60
Medium
09:00
EU
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.4
50.8
49.4
50.40
Medium
05:00
EU
New Car Sales YoY
1.4
-3.9
-6
-2.30
Medium
Monday, March 23, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
EU
Consumer Confidence
-
-12.2
-15
-15.08
Medium
Friday, March 20, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
EU
Balance of Trade
-1.9
11.2
12.8
9.57
Medium
09:00
EU
Current Account
13
33.7
7.5
9.27
Low
09:00
EU
Current Account s.a
37.9
13.3
17.2
27.55
Low
Thursday, March 19, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:15
EU
ECB Interest Rate Decision
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
High
13:15
EU
Deposit Facility Rate
2
2
2
2.00
High
13:15
EU
Marginal Lending Rate
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.40
Low
13:15
EU
Interest Rate Decision
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
High
10:00
EU
Labour Cost Index YoY
3.3
3.4
3
3.15
Low
10:00
EU
Construction Output YoY
-1.9
0.7
-0.2
-1.05
Low
10:00
EU
Wage Growth YoY
3
3.2
2.8
2.90
Low
Wednesday, March 18, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
EU
CPI
100.71
100.07
100.72
100.75
High
10:00
EU
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.4
2.2
2.4
2.43
Low
10:00
EU
Inflation Rate YoY
1.9
1.7
1.9
1.93
Low
10:00
EU
Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
-0.6
0.7
0.72
Low
10:00
EU
HICP MoM
0.6
-0.8
0.7
-0.35
Low
10:00
EU
HICP YoY
2.3
2.1
2.3
2.27
Low
04:00
EU
HICP YoY
-
2.1
2.3
2.27
Low
04:00
EU
HICP MoM
-
-0.8
0.7
-0.35
Low
Tuesday, March 17, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
EU
ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
-8.5
39.4
24
19.78
Medium
10:00
EU
Economic Sentiment
-
39.4
26.5
26.10
Medium
Friday, March 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
EU
Industrial Production YoY
-1.2
2.2
1.4
1.00
Low
10:00
EU
Industrial Production MoM
-1.5
-0.6
0.6
0.25
Medium
Monday, March 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
EU
Sentix Investors Sentiment
-3.1
4.2
-3.1
-1.82
Low
08:30
EU
Sentix Investors Sentiment
-
4.2
-3.1
-1.82
Low
Friday, March 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
EU
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.27
Medium
11:00
EU
Gross Domestic Product YoY
1.2
1.4
1.3
1.27
Medium
10:00
EU
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.30
Low
10:00
EU
Employment Change YoY
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.75
Low
10:00
EU
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.2
1.4
1.3
1.27
Low
10:00
EU
Employment Change QoQ
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.23
Low
10:00
EU
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.27
Medium
10:00
EU
Gross Domestic Product YoY
1.2
1.4
1.3
1.27
Medium
03:00
EU
Gross Domestic Product YoY
-
1.4
1.3
1.27
Medium
Thursday, March 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
EU
Retail Sales MoM
-0.1
0.2
0.5
0.30
Medium
10:00
EU
Retail Sales YoY
2
1.8
1.7
1.75
Low
08:30
EU
HCOB Construction PMI
46
45.3
45.9
45.55
Low
Wednesday, March 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
EU
Unemployment Rate
6.1
6.2
6.2
6.15
Medium
10:00
EU
Producer Price Index YoY
-2.1
-2
-2.6
-2.50
Low
10:00
EU
Producer Price Index MoM
0.7
-0.3
0.3
0.33
Low
09:00
EU
HCOB Services PMI
51.9
51.6
51.8
51.75
Low
09:00
EU
HCOB Composite PMI
51.9
51.3
51.9
51.90
Low
09:00
EU
PMI
51.9
51.9
51.9
51.93
Medium
09:00
EU
Services PMI
51.9
51.8
51.8
51.75
Medium
Tuesday, March 3, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
EU
CPI
100.72
-1.1
100.5
100.53
Low
10:00
EU
Inflation Rate YoY
1.9
1.7
1.7
1.73
High
10:00
EU
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.4
2.2
2.2
2.23
Medium
10:00
EU
Inflation Rate MoM
0.7
-0.6
0.4
0.42
Medium
Monday, March 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
EU
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
50.8
49.5
50.8
50.95
Low
09:00
EU
Manufacturing PMI
50.8
49.5
50.8
50.97
Low
Friday, February 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
EU
Loans to Households YoY
-
3
3
2.98
Low
09:00
EU
Loans to Companies YoY
-
3
3
2.95
Low
09:00
EU
M3 Money Supply YoY
-
2.8
2.8
2.80
Low
09:00
EU
Consumer Inflation Expectation
2.6
2.8
2.9
4.75
Low
Thursday, February 26, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
EU
Services Sentiment
5
7.2
7
6.78
Low
10:00
EU
Industrial Sentiment
-7.1
-6.8
-7
-6.48
Low
10:00
EU
Consumer Confidence
-12.2
-12.4
-12.2
-12.28
Low
10:00
EU
Consumer Inflation Expectation
25.8
24.2
22
23.85
Low
10:00
EU
Selling Price Expectations
11.5
10.3
9
10.03
Low
09:00
EU
Loans to Households YoY
3
3
3
2.98
Low
09:00
EU
M3 Money Supply YoY
3.3
2.8
2.8
2.80
Low
09:00
EU
Loans to Companies YoY
2.8
3
3
2.95
Low
09:00
EU
Private sector loans
3
3
3.1
3.12
Low
02:00
EU
Private sector loans
-
3
3.1
3.12
Low
Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
EU
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.23
Low
10:00
EU
CPI
100.05
100.63
100.1
100.13
Low
10:00
EU
Inflation Rate YoY
1.7
2
1.7
1.73
Low
10:00
EU
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.6
0.2
-0.5
-0.48
Low
10:00
EU
HICP MoM
-0.8
0.2
2.3
1.25
Low
10:00
EU
HICP YoY
2.1
2.3
2.2
2.17
Low
03:00
EU
HICP MoM
-0.8
0.2
2.3
1.25
Low
03:00
EU
HICP YoY
2.1
2.3
2.2
2.17
Low
Tuesday, February 24, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
EU
New Car Registrations YoY
-3.9
5.8
-4.8
-4.35
Medium
Friday, February 20, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
EU
HCOB Composite PMI
51.9
51.3
51.7
51.70
Medium
09:00
EU
HCOB Services PMI
51.8
51.6
51.9
51.85
Medium
09:00
EU
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
50.8
49.5
50
50.15
Medium
09:00
EU
Manufacturing PMI
50.8
49.5
49.9
50.07
Medium
09:00
EU
Services PMI
51.8
51.6
51.9
51.85
Medium
09:00
EU
PMI
51.9
51.3
51.5
51.53
Medium
Thursday, February 19, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:10
EU
Consumer Confidence
-12.2
-12.4
-11.7
-11.78
Medium
15:00
EU
Consumer Confidence
-12.2
-12.4
-11.7
-11.78
Medium
09:00
EU
Current Account
34.6
8.9
15.1
16.87
Low
Tuesday, February 17, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
EU
ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
39.4
40.8
44
39.78
Medium
10:00
EU
Economic Sentiment
39.4
40.8
45.7
45.30
Medium
Monday, February 16, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
EU
Industrial Production MoM
-1.4
0.3
-1.2
-1.55
Medium
10:00
EU
Industrial Production YoY
1.2
2.2
1.5
1.10
Low
Friday, February 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
EU
Employment Change QoQ
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.13
High
10:00
EU
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.30
Low
10:00
EU
Employment Change YoY
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.55
High
10:00
EU
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.27
Low
10:00
EU
Balance of Trade
12.6
9.9
12
8.77
Medium
10:00
EU
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.27
Medium
10:00
EU
Gross Domestic Product YoY
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.27
Medium
Monday, February 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
EU
Sentix Investors Sentiment
4.2
-1.8
-0.2
1.08
Low
Thursday, February 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:15
EU
Marginal Lending Rate
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.40
Low
13:15
EU
ECB Interest Rate Decision
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
High
13:15
EU
Deposit Facility Rate
2
2
2
2.00
High
13:15
EU
Interest Rate Decision
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
High
10:00
EU
Retail Sales YoY
1.3
2.4
2
2.05
Low
10:00
EU
Retail Sales MoM
-0.5
0.1
0.2
0.00
Medium
08:30
EU
HCOB Construction PMI
45.3
47.4
48
47.65
Low
Wednesday, February 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
EU
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.5
0.2
-0.4
-0.38
Medium
10:00
EU
CPI
100.08
100.63
129
129.03
Low
10:00
EU
Producer Price Index MoM
-0.3
0.7
0.2
0.23
Low
10:00
EU
Producer Price Index YoY
-2.1
-1.4
-2
-1.90
Low
10:00
EU
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.33
Medium
09:00
EU
HCOB Services PMI
51.6
52.4
51.9
51.85
Low
09:00
EU
HCOB Composite PMI
51.3
51.5
51.5
51.50
Low
09:00
EU
Services PMI
51.6
52.4
51.9
51.85
Medium
09:00
EU
PMI
51.3
51.5
51.5
51.53
Medium
Monday, February 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
EU
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
49.5
48.8
49.4
49.55
Low
09:00
EU
Manufacturing PMI
49.5
48.8
49.4
49.57
Medium
Friday, January 30, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
EU
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.20
High
10:00
EU
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.37
High
10:00
EU
Unemployment Rate
6.2
6.3
6.3
6.25
Medium
10:00
EU
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.17
Medium
10:00
EU
Gross Domestic Product YoY
1.3
1.4
1.2
1.17
Medium
09:00
EU
Consumer Inflation Expectation
2.8
2.8
2.8
4.65
Low
Thursday, January 29, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
EU
Consumer Confidence
-12.4
-13.1
-12.4
-12.48
Low
10:00
EU
Selling Price Expectations
10
10.8
11
12.03
Low
10:00
EU
Industrial Sentiment
-6.8
-8.5
-9
-8.48
Low
10:00
EU
Consumer Inflation Expectation
24.1
26.7
25
26.85
Low
09:00
EU
M3 Money Supply YoY
2.8
3
3
3.00
Low
09:00
EU
Loans to Households YoY
3
2.9
3
2.98
Low
09:00
EU
Loans to Companies YoY
3
3.1
3.2
3.15
Low
09:00
EU
Private sector loans
3
2.9
2.9
2.92
Low
Friday, January 23, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
EU
Consumer Confidence
-
-13.1
-13.6
-13.68
Medium
09:00
EU
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
-
48.8
49.7
49.85
Medium
09:00
EU
HCOB Composite PMI
-
51.5
52.3
52.30
Medium
09:00
EU
HCOB Services PMI
-
52.4
52.9
52.85
Medium
09:00
EU
Manufacturing PMI
-
48.8
49.2
49.37
Medium
09:00
EU
Services PMI
-
52.4
52.6
52.55
Medium
Thursday, January 22, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
EU
Consumer Confidence
-
-13.1
-13.6
-13.68
Medium
Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:15
EU
New Car Registrations YoY
-
2.1
1
1.45
Medium
Tuesday, January 20, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
EU
ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
40.8
33.7
29
24.78
Medium
10:00
EU
Construction Output YoY
-0.8
0.5
0.9
0.05
Low
10:00
EU
Economic Sentiment
40.8
33.7
36.7
36.30
Medium
09:00
EU
Current Account
12.6
32
27
28.77
Low
09:00
EU
Current Account s.a
-
25.7
25.1
35.45
Low
Monday, January 19, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
EU
Inflation Rate YoY
1.9
2.1
2
2.03
Low
10:00
EU
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.33
Low
10:00
EU
CPI
129.54
129.33
129.56
129.59
High
10:00
EU
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.3
0.2
0.22
Low
10:00
EU
HICP MoM
0.2
-0.4
0.2
-0.85
Low
10:00
EU
HICP YoY
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.27
Low
Thursday, January 15, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
EU
Industrial Production MoM
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.15
Medium
10:00
EU
Industrial Production YoY
2.5
1.7
2
1.60
Low
10:00
EU
Balance of Trade
9.9
17.9
15.2
11.97
Medium
Monday, January 12, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
EU
Sentix Investors Sentiment
-1.8
-6.2
-5.1
-3.82
Low
Friday, January 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
EU
Retail Sales MoM
0.2
0.3
0.1
-0.10
High
10:00
EU
Retail Sales YoY
2.3
1.9
1.6
1.65
High
Thursday, January 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
EU
Services Sentiment
5.6
5.8
5.9
5.68
Low
10:00
EU
Selling Price Expectations
10.9
9.9
10.4
11.43
Low
10:00
EU
Consumer Confidence
-13.1
-12.8
-14.6
-14.68
Low
10:00
EU
Consumer Inflation Expectation
26.7
24.3
23.6
25.45
Low
10:00
EU
Industrial Sentiment
-9
-9.3
-9.1
-8.58
Low
10:00
EU
Economic Sentiment
96.7
97.1
97
96.60
Medium
10:00
EU
Producer Price Index MoM
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.23
Low
10:00
EU
Producer Price Index YoY
-1.7
-0.5
-1.9
-1.80
Low
10:00
EU
Unemployment Rate
6.3
6.4
6.4
6.35
High
09:00
EU
Consumer Inflation Expectation
2.8
2.8
2.7
4.55
Low
Wednesday, January 7, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
EU
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.3
0.3
0.32
Medium
10:00
EU
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.43
Medium
10:00
EU
CPI
129.56
129.33
129.6
129.63
High
10:00
EU
Inflation Rate YoY
2
2.1
2
2.03
High
10:00
EU
HICP YoY
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.37
Low
09:00
EU
Consumer Inflation Expectation
-
2.8
2.7
4.55
Low
08:30
EU
HCOB Construction PMI
47.4
45.4
46.9
46.55
Low
Tuesday, January 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
EU
HCOB Services PMI
52.4
53.6
52.6
52.55
Low
09:00
EU
HCOB Composite PMI
51.5
52.8
51.9
51.90
Low
09:00
EU
Services PMI
52.4
53.6
52.6
52.55
Medium
09:00
EU
PMI
51.5
52.8
51.9
51.93
Medium
Friday, January 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
EU
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
48.8
49.6
49.2
49.35
Low
09:00
EU
Loans to Companies YoY
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.85
Low
09:00
EU
Loans to Households YoY
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.78
Low
09:00
EU
M3 Money Supply YoY
3
2.8
2.7
2.70
Low
09:00
EU
Manufacturing PMI
48.8
49.6
49.2
49.37
Medium
09:00
EU
Private sector loans
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.82
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
EU Inflation Rate Surges to 1.20 Percent in March The inflation rate measures the monthly change in consumer prices across the European Union, reflecting cost pressures faced by households and businesses. Latest data shows a 1.20% increase in March 2026, up from 0.60% in February and exceeding the 1.40% forecast. This sharp rise marks the strongest monthly inflation gain since late 2022, driven primarily by higher energy and food costs. The acceleration interrupts several months of subdued or negative readings, raising concerns about persistent inflationary pressures amid ongoing supply chain challenges and geopolitical tensions. Market reactions were swift, with bond yields rising and the euro strengthening as investors reassessed the European Central Bank’s policy outlook. According to Eurostat economist Maria Keller, “March’s inflation jump highlights the fragile balance between easing supply constraints and renewed cost shocks, suggesting vigilance is needed in upcoming policy decisions.” The report was released on March 31, 2026.
March’s 1.2% MoM inflation rate sharply outpaces February’s 0.6% and the 12-month average of 0.09%. The last time the EU saw a comparable monthly surge was in late 2022. Over the past six months, readings ranged from -0.6% (February 2026) to the current high, underscoring the volatility of recent price movements.
Three of the last six months registered negative MoM inflation, but the latest data signals a reversal. The abrupt swing from -0.6% in late February to 1.2% in March highlights the sensitivity of headline inflation to energy and food price shocks.