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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone PMI held to 51.9 in February 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
Eurozone PMI held to 51.9 in February 2026, released March 2026. The reading matched the 51.9 consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 1.7. Over the past 3 months, PMI averaged 51.65, vs 52.05 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 78th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
51.9
Actual
51.9
Consensus
51.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 51.78
Actual: 51.9
Error: -0.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | INDEX | Bullish Euro STOXX 50 | → View |
| EUR/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | INDEX | Bearish FTSE 100 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PMI (European Union) was reported at 51.90 in March 2026. This matched the market consensus of 51.90 exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 51.56, ranging from 50.20 to 52.80 across 16 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 51.70, down from the prior three at 52.07. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.68) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.34). In March readings over the past 3 years, PMI has averaged 50.83.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/CHF, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.20.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Jun 16) and Economic Sentiment (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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PMI - EU
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About PMI — European Union
DEFINITION
PMI, or Purchasing Managers' Index, is a widely used economic indicator that measures the health of a country's manufacturing sector. It is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers from various industries, and provides valuable insights into the overall economic activity and future trends. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, businesses, and policymakers as it can help inform decisions related to investments, production, and economic policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 51.9, consensus 51.9. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 51.9. Before that (Jan 2026): 51.3.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50, r=0.54) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.