United States Inflation Rate — Forecast & | Sigmanomics
United States Inflation Rate YoY
Latest Release
2.4
Actual
2.4
Consensus
2.4
Previous
US Inflation Rate YoY held steady at 2.40% in February 2026, matching January’s reading exactly. This level is down from December 2025’s 2.70% and remains below the 12-month average of 2.66%, indicating continued moderation in price growth. Market reaction was muted as the rate stays just above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, maintaining focus on inflation containment. Updated 3/11/26
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Inflation Rate YoY - US
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Key Takeaways: US annual inflation rate held steady at 2.4% in February 2026, matching January’s reading. Price growth remains below the 12-month average of 2.66%. Core drivers included shelter and food, while energy costs moderated. The figure stays just above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, keeping policy focus on inflation containment.
US Inflation Rate YoY Holds at 2.4% in February: Stability Persists Below 12-Month Average
The 2.4% annual rate remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, but the gap has narrowed since October’s 3.0% reading. Policymakers continue to monitor core inflation components for persistent pressures.
Foundational Indicators
February’s 2.4% YoY inflation matches January and is 0.3 percentage points below December 2025’s 2.7%.
Compared to September 2025’s 2.9%, price growth has moderated by 0.5 percentage points.
Inflation has averaged 2.66% over the past year, with a high of 3.0% (October) and a low of 2.3% (May).
Market lens
US Treasury yields were little changed after the release. Investors interpreted the steady inflation print as a sign of stability, reducing bets on imminent policy shifts. Equity markets showed muted reaction, while the US dollar remained range-bound against major peers.
Chart Dynamics
February’s 2.4% YoY inflation rate is unchanged from January and sits below the 12-month average of 2.66%. The reading is 0.5 percentage points lower than the recent high of 2.9% in September 2025. Over the past six months, inflation has trended downward from 3.0% in October to the current level. Stability has characterized the last two months, with no change between January and February.
The last three months—December (2.7%), January (2.4%), and February (2.4%)—show a clear deceleration from the autumn peak. This pattern suggests that earlier price pressures, especially in energy, have eased, while shelter and food remain steady contributors.
Inflation Rate YoY trend (March 2025 – February 2026)
What This Chart Tells Us: The inflation trend over the past year highlights a clear deceleration from last autumn’s peak. The current plateau at 2.4% signals a period of price stability, with upside risks contained for now. The chart underscores the narrowing gap between headline inflation and the Federal Reserve’s target, supporting a base-case scenario of continued moderation.
Forward Outlook
Bullish scenario (20–30%): Inflation drops below 2.2% by mid-year, driven by further declines in energy and stable core prices.
Base scenario (55–65%): Inflation remains in the 2.3–2.5% range through the next quarter, with shelter and food offsetting softer energy costs.
Bearish scenario (10–20%): Price growth rebounds above 2.7% if supply shocks or wage pressures re-emerge.
The data is sourced from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and cross-verified with the Sigmanomics database [1]. The YoY inflation rate reflects changes in the Consumer Price Index, seasonally adjusted. Upside risks include geopolitical tensions and commodity volatility; downside risks stem from slowing consumer demand and easing supply chains.
Closing Thoughts
February’s inflation data confirms a period of stability for US consumers and policymakers. The annual rate has now held at 2.4% for two consecutive months, reinforcing the narrative of moderating price pressures. With inflation below its 12-month average and well off last year’s highs, attention turns to whether this trend can be sustained amid evolving economic conditions.
Key Markets Reacting to Inflation Rate YoY
US inflation readings shape asset prices across equities, currencies, and crypto. The following symbols, verified from Sigmanomics, show notable sensitivity to inflation data:
AAPL (Apple Inc.): Consumer sentiment and purchasing power influence tech demand and earnings.
EURUSD: US inflation differentials drive dollar strength or weakness against the euro.
BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s narrative as an inflation hedge is tested by US CPI trends.
Year
US Inflation Rate YoY (%)
AAPL Price Trend
2020
1.2–1.4
Steady gains
2021
1.4–7.0
Volatile, upward bias
2022
7.0–9.1
Sharp correction mid-year
2023
3.0–4.0
Recovery phase
2024–2026
2.3–3.0
Stable, moderate growth
Since 2020, AAPL’s price has shown sensitivity to major inflation swings, with corrections during peak inflation and steadier growth as price pressures eased.
FAQ: US Inflation Rate YoY Holds at 2.4% in February: Stability Persists Below 12-Month Average
Q1: What does the latest US Inflation Rate YoY figure indicate?
A1: The February 2026 reading of 2.4% shows price growth remains steady and below the 12-month average, signaling moderating inflation pressures.
Q2: Why is the 2.4% inflation rate significant?
A2: This level is just above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, suggesting policy focus remains on inflation containment but with less urgency than during 2022’s peaks.
Q3: How does the current inflation rate compare to recent months?
A3: February’s 2.4% matches January and is down from December’s 2.7%, reflecting a clear deceleration from last autumn’s highs.
US inflation remains stable at 2.4%, reinforcing a trend of moderating price pressures.
Updated 3/11/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
[1] US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, February 2026. Cross-verified with Sigmanomics database.
Economic Calendar - US Events
Friday, February 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
-
50
40
35.00
High
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
-
34.2
34.2
34.15
Low
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
-
4.4
4.5
4.45
High
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
-
37
32
18.50
Low
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
-
0.3
0.3
0.30
Medium
Thursday, February 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Openings
6.542
6.928
7
6.77
High
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
231
209
214
213.67
Medium
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
212.25
206.25
210
208.88
Low
12:30
US
Challenger Job Cuts
108.435
35.553
43
36.09
Low
Wednesday, February 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
US
Total Vehicle Sales
-
16
15.5
15.43
Low
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment
50.3
51.7
52.3
52.55
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders
53.1
56.5
55
55.85
Low
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
53.8
53.8
53.5
54.13
High
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
66.6
65.1
65
65.25
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI
52.7
52.5
52.5
52.45
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI
53
52.7
52.8
52.77
Low
13:30
US
Total Vehicle Sales
14.9
16
15.5
15.43
Low
13:15
US
ADP Employment Change
22
37
35
30.25
Medium
Tuesday, February 3, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:10
US
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
48.8
47.2
47
46.97
Low
15:10
US
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
48.8
47.2
47.9
47.88
Low
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Openings
-
7.146
7
6.77
High
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Quits
-
3.161
3.15
3.24
Low
Monday, February 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
4.2
4.2
4.00
Medium
16:10
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.00
Medium
16:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.00
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing New Orders
57.1
47.4
47.9
50.33
Low
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing Employment
48.1
44.8
44.8
45.82
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing Prices
59
58.5
59.9
59.55
Low
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing PMI
52.6
47.9
48.2
49.20
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
52.4
51.8
51.9
52.02
Low
Friday, January 30, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:45
US
Chicago PMI
54
42.7
45
49.50
Medium
13:30
US
Producer Price Index MoM
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.35
High
13:30
US
Core PPI YoY
3.3
3.1
3
3.15
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index YoY
3
3
2.9
2.95
Low
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM
0.4
0.2
0.3
0.35
Low
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.63
Low
13:30
US
Core PPI MoM
0.7
0
0.1
0.28
Medium
Thursday, January 29, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
5.4
5.4
5.20
Medium
16:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
4.2
5.4
5.4
5.20
Medium
15:00
US
Factory Orders MoM
2.7
-0.1
1.4
1.70
Medium
15:00
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.13
Low
13:30
US
Balance of Trade
-56.8
-29.2
-37
-34.58
Medium
13:30
US
Exports
292.1
303
303
297.55
Medium
13:30
US
Nonfarm Productivity QoQ
4.9
4.1
4.9
5.38
Low
13:30
US
Imports
348.9
332.1
340
344.45
Medium
13:30
US
Unit Labour Costs QoQ
-1.9
-2.9
-1.9
-2.63
Low
Wednesday, January 28, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
US
Fed Interest Rate Decision
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75
High
Tuesday, January 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index
-3
-6
-2
-2.50
Low
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index
-5
-11
-6
-5.50
Low
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
-6
-7
-3
-4.50
Low
15:00
US
CB Consumer Confidence
84.5
94.2
90.6
87.55
High
14:00
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.30
Medium
14:00
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM
0
-0.3
-0.2
-0.10
Low
14:00
US
House Price Index MoM
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.45
Low
14:00
US
House Price Index
439.3
436.8
438
438.65
Low
14:00
US
House Price Index YoY
1.9
1.8
1
1.45
Low
Monday, January 26, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.20
Medium
13:30
US
Durable Goods Orders MoM
5.3
-2.1
1.1
3.20
High
13:30
US
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
-0.04
-0.42
-0.4
-0.22
Medium
Friday, January 23, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Inflation Expectations
-
3.4
3.4
3.45
Medium
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
-
4.2
4.2
4.20
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
-
50.4
52.4
53.35
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
-
52.9
54
54.25
High
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
-
3.2
3.4
3.55
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
-
54.6
55
55.40
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
-
52.5
52.3
52.30
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
-
51.8
52
52.00
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
-
52.7
52.8
52.80
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI
-
52.5
52.8
52.75
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
-
51.8
52.1
52.23
High
Thursday, January 22, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:00
US
Kansas Fed Composite Index
-
1
4
4.00
Low
16:00
US
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index
-
-3
5
5.00
Low
15:00
US
Core PCE Price Index YoY
-
2.8
2.8
2.80
High
15:00
US
Personal Spending MoM
-
0.4
0.4
0.40
High
15:00
US
Core PCE Price Index MoM
-
0.2
0.1
0.10
High
15:00
US
PCE Price Index MoM
-
0.3
0.2
0.20
Medium
15:00
US
Core PCE Price Index MoM
-
0.2
0.1
0.10
High
15:00
US
PCE Price Index YoY
-
2.8
2.7
2.70
Medium
13:30
US
GDP Price Index QoQ
-
2.1
3.7
3.70
Medium
13:30
US
Core PCE Prices QoQ
-
2.6
2.9
2.90
Low
13:30
US
PCE Prices QoQ
-
2.1
2.8
2.80
Low
13:30
US
Corporate Profits QoQ
-
0.2
4.4
4.40
Low
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
-
198
195
194.67
High
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
-
1884
1880
1873.17
High
13:30
US
Real Consumer Spending QoQ
-
2.5
3.5
3.50
Low
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
-
205
203
201.88
High
13:30
US
GDP Sales QoQ
-
7.5
4.6
4.60
Low
13:30
US
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-
3.8
4.3
4.30
High
13:30
US
Real Consumer Spending
-
2.5
3.5
3.50
Low
13:30
US
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
-
3.8
4.3
4.30
High
13:30
US
Core PCE Price Index YoY
-
2.8
2.8
2.80
Low
13:30
US
Core PCE Price Index YoY
-
2.8
2.8
2.80
Low
13:30
US
PCE Price Index YoY
-
2.8
2.8
2.80
Medium
13:30
US
PCE Price Index YoY
-
2.8
2.8
2.80
Medium
13:30
US
Personal Spending MoM
-
0.3
0.2
0.20
High
13:30
US
Personal Income MoM
-
0.4
0.3
0.30
High
13:30
US
Core PCE Price Index MoM
-
0.2
0.1
0.10
High
13:30
US
PCE Price Index MoM
-
0.3
0.2
0.20
Medium
Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
5.3
5.3
5.10
Medium
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales MoM
-
3.3
1.4
1.40
Medium
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales YoY
-
2.6
0.2
0.20
Medium
15:00
US
Construction Spending MoM
-
0.2
-0.1
-0.10
Low
Friday, January 16, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
-
4.2
4.2
4.20
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
-
52.9
54
54.25
High
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
-
50.4
52.4
53.35
Low
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
-
3.2
3.4
3.55
Low
15:00
US
NAHB Housing Market Index
37
39
40
38.50
Medium
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
-
54.6
55
55.40
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production YoY
2
2.5
2.7
2.35
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production MoM
0.2
0.3
-0.2
0.00
Low
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
76.3
76
76
76.15
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production YoY
2
1.9
2
2.00
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production MoM
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.25
Medium
Thursday, January 15, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-71
-119
-90
-85.17
Low
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
198
207
215
214.67
High
13:30
US
Import Prices MoM
0.4
0
-0.1
0.15
Medium
13:30
US
Import Prices YoY
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.25
Low
13:30
US
Import Prices YoY
-
0.3
0.5
0.35
Low
13:30
US
Import Prices MoM
-
0
0.1
0.35
Medium
13:30
US
Export Prices YoY
-
3.8
3
3.00
Low
13:30
US
Export Prices YoY
-
3.8
3
3.00
Low
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1884
1903
1890
1883.17
High
13:30
US
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
7.7
-3.7
1
4.35
High
13:30
US
Export Prices MoM
-
0
-0.1
-0.10
Medium
13:30
US
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
12.6
-8.8
-2
5.30
Medium
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
205
211.5
215
213.88
High
Wednesday, January 14, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
5.3
5.1
5.1
4.90
Medium
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
5.1
5.1
4.90
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
-0.029
5.594
-0.2
0.86
Low
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
3.391
-3.831
-2.2
-2.26
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
8.977
7.702
4
6.29
Medium
15:10
US
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
-
47.9
47.4
47.37
Low
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales
4.35
4.14
4.21
4.28
High
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales MoM
5.1
0.7
-1.6
1.75
High
15:00
US
Business Inventories MoM
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.25
Medium
15:00
US
Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM
0.3
0.1
-0.1
0.10
Low
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY
3.4
3
2.9
3.02
Low
13:30
US
Core PPI YoY
3
2.9
2.7
2.85
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index MoM
-
0.3
0.4
0.55
High
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM
-
0.1
0.2
0.25
Low
13:30
US
Core PPI MoM
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.38
Medium
13:30
US
Core PPI YoY
-
2.6
2.7
2.85
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index YoY
-
2.7
2.7
2.75
Low
13:30
US
Current Account
-226.4
-249.2
-238.4
-232.40
Medium
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
0.5
0.2
0.4
0.45
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales YoY
3.3
3.3
3
3.15
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales MoM
0.6
-0.1
0.4
0.50
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.25
High
Tuesday, January 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
5.27
-2.8
-2
-1.18
Medium
19:00
US
Monthly Budget Statement
-145
-173
-150
-147.50
Medium
19:00
US
Budget Balance
-145
-173
-144.5
-144.75
Medium
15:10
US
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
47.2
47.9
48.2
48.17
Low
15:10
US
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
47.2
47.9
48.2
48.18
Low
15:00
US
New Home Sales
-
800
710
710.00
High
15:00
US
New Home Sales
-
0.8
0.69
0.69
Medium
15:00
US
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
47.2
47.9
48.2
48.17
Low
13:30
US
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.65
High
13:30
US
CPI
324.05
324.12
323.8
323.93
High
13:30
US
CPI s.a
326.03
325.031
325.7
325.87
High
13:30
US
Building Permits
1.411
1.415
1.412
2.81
Low
13:30
US
Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.70
High
11:00
US
NFIB Business Optimism Index
99.5
99
99.5
99.50
Low
Monday, January 12, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn
13.28
1.55
13.1
13.19
Low
17:00
US
Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat
1.68
2.13
1.65
1.67
Low
17:00
US
Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy
3.29
0.32
3.28
3.29
Low
Friday, January 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
5.1
5.4
5.4
5.20
Medium
15:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
5.4
5.4
5.20
Medium
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
54
52.9
53.5
53.75
High
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
52.4
50.4
50.5
51.45
Low
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.25
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.20
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
55
54.6
54.2
54.60
Low
15:00
US
Inflation Expectations
3.4
3.2
3.3
3.35
Medium
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings YoY
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.70
Medium
13:30
US
U-6 Unemployment Rate
8.4
8.7
8.8
8.60
High
13:30
US
Housing Starts
1.246
1.306
1.33
1.29
High
13:30
US
Housing Starts MoM
-4.6
1.2
0.8
-1.90
Medium
13:30
US
Building Permits
6.4
-2.3
0.8
2.20
Medium
13:30
US
Government Payrolls
13
6
-10
1.50
Low
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.45
High
13:30
US
Manufacturing Payrolls
-8
-2
-5
-6.50
Low
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
37
50
64
50.50
High
13:30
US
Participation Rate
62.4
62.5
62.6
62.50
Medium
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
50
56
60
55.00
High
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.30
Medium
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
34.2
34.3
34.3
34.25
Low
Thursday, January 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
20:00
US
Consumer Credit Change
4.23
9.24
10
7.12
Low
20:00
US
BoE Consumer Credit
4.23
9.24
10.1
7.17
Medium
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
5.4
2.7
2.7
2.50
Medium
16:00
US
Consumer Inflation Expectation
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.30
Low
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-119
-38
-114
-109.17
Low
15:00
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.23
Low
13:30
US
Nonfarm Productivity QoQ
4.9
4.1
3
3.48
Medium
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
208
200
210
209.67
High
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1914
1858
1900
1893.17
High
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
211.75
219
210.75
209.63
High
13:30
US
Unit Labour Costs QoQ
-1.9
-2.9
1
0.28
Medium
13:30
US
Balance of Trade
-29.4
-48.1
-58.9
-56.47
Medium
12:30
US
Challenger Job Cuts
35.553
71.321
89
82.09
Low
10:30
US
Challenger Job Cuts
35.553
71.321
89
82.09
Low
Wednesday, January 7, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
7.702
5.845
2.9
5.19
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-3.831
-1.934
1.1
1.04
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
5.594
4.977
2.2
3.26
Low
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Openings
7.146
7.449
7.6
7.37
High
15:00
US
Factory Orders ex Transportation
-0.2
0.1
-0.3
-0.25
Low
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Quits
3.161
2.973
2.99
3.08
Low
15:00
US
Factory Orders MoM
-1.3
0.2
-1.2
-0.90
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
54.4
52.6
52.2
52.83
High
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders
57.9
52.9
52.6
53.45
Low
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment
52
48.9
49
49.25
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
64.3
65.4
64.9
65.15
High
15:00
US
ISM Services PMI
54.4
52.6
52.3
53.35
High
15:00
US
ISM Services Business Activity
56
54.5
54
55.00
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services New Orders
57.9
52.9
52.2
55.05
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Employment
52
48.9
48.7
50.35
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Prices
64.3
65.4
65.5
64.90
Low
15:00
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM
-1.5
-1.5
-1.5
-1.50
Low
13:15
US
ADP Employment Change
41
-29
47
42.25
High
Tuesday, January 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
-2.8
1.7
1.2
2.02
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI
52.7
54.2
53
52.98
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI
52.5
54.1
52.9
52.85
Low
Monday, January 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
US
Total Vehicle Sales
16
15.6
15.7
15.63
Low
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
2.7
3
3
2.80
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Services Business Activity
-
54.5
54
55.00
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Prices
-
65.4
65.5
64.90
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Employment
-
48.9
48.7
50.35
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services New Orders
-
52.9
52.2
55.05
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services PMI
-
52.6
52
53.05
High
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing Employment
44.9
44
44.1
45.13
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing New Orders
47.7
47.4
47.2
49.63
Low
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing Prices
58.5
58.5
59
58.65
Low
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing PMI
47.9
48.2
48.3
49.30
High
Friday, January 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Construction Spending MoM
-
0.2
-0.1
-0.10
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.8
52.2
51.8
51.92
Low
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
-
34.3
34.3
34.25
Low
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
-
0.1
0.2
0.20
Medium
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
-
4.6
4.7
4.65
High
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
-
69
6
-7.50
High
13:30
US
Participation Rate
-
62.5
62.6
62.50
Medium
13:30
US
Manufacturing Payrolls
-
-5
-10
-11.50
Low
13:30
US
Government Payrolls
-
-5
-6
5.50
Low
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
-
64
12
7.00
High
Wednesday, December 31, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-38
-166
-53
-48.17
Low
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-1.934
0.405
-0.9
-0.96
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
5.845
2.862
1.9
4.19
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
4.977
0.202
2.2
3.26
Low
14:45
US
Chicago PMI
-
36.3
39.5
44.00
Medium
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1866
1913
1915
1908.17
High
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
218.75
217
224.25
223.13
High
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
199
215
220
219.67
High
Sunday, January 1, 2023
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
USAUSA
Current account balance (% of GDP)
-3.3090170346883
-3.3090170346883
-3.3090170346883
-3.31
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Consumer price index (2010 = 100)
139.73579356326
139.73579356326
139.73579356326
139.74
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Population, total
334914895
334914895
334914895
334914895.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
GDP (current US$)
27360935000000
27360935000000
27360935000000
27360935000000.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Labor force, total
170715034
170715034
170715034
170715034.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP)
49.150559741687
49.150559741687
49.150559741687
49.15
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
GDP growth (annual %)
2.5427002987849
2.5427002987849
2.5427002987849
2.54
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
13.887851858334
13.887851858334
13.887851858334
13.89
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Central government debt, total (% of GDP)
114.87716277387
114.87716277387
114.87716277387
114.88
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
11.01151128566
11.01151128566
11.01151128566
11.01
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Unemployment with advanced education (% of total labor force with advanced education)
2.373
2.373
2.373
2.37
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
4.1163383837449
4.1163383837449
4.1163383837449
4.12
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate)
3.638
3.638
3.638
3.64
Medium
Saturday, January 1, 2022
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
USAUSA
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate)
3.65
3.65
3.65
3.65
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Current account balance (% of GDP)
-3.9313966520029
-3.9313966520029
-3.9313966520029
-3.93
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Consumer price index (2010 = 100)
134.21120616846
134.21120616846
134.21120616846
134.21
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
1.665
1.665
1.665
1.67
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Population, total
333271411
333271411
333271411
333271411.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
GDP (current US$)
25744108000000
25744108000000
25744108000000
25744108000000.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Labor force, total
168341090
168341090
168341090
168341090.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP)
51.136584491221
51.136584491221
51.136584491221
51.14
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
GDP growth (annual %)
1.9354958948321
1.9354958948321
1.9354958948321
1.94
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
15.28946191304
15.28946191304
15.28946191304
15.29
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Central government debt, total (% of GDP)
112.88963276005
112.88963276005
112.88963276005
112.89
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
11.602227917037
11.602227917037
11.602227917037
11.60
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Unemployment with advanced education (% of total labor force with advanced education)
2.321
2.321
2.321
2.32
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
8.0027998205212
8.0027998205212
8.0027998205212
8.00
Medium
Friday, January 1, 2021
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
USAUSA
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate)
5.349
5.349
5.349
5.35
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Current account balance (% of GDP)
-3.6788287681745
-3.6788287681745
-3.6788287681745
-3.68
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Consumer price index (2010 = 100)
124.26641382584
124.26641382584
124.26641382584
124.27
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
1.664
1.664
1.664
1.66
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Population, total
332048977
332048977
332048977
332048977.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Lending interest rate (%)
3.25
3.25
3.25
3.25
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
GDP (current US$)
23594031000000
23594031000000
23594031000000
23594031000000.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Labor force, total
166395605
166395605
166395605
166395605.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP)
50.214770826255
50.214770826255
50.214770826255
50.21
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
14.422677831261
14.422677831261
14.422677831261
14.42
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Real interest rate (%)
-1.2762333113846
-1.2762333113846
-1.2762333113846
-1.28
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
GDP growth (annual %)
5.8002061284573
5.8002061284573
5.8002061284573
5.80
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Central government debt, total (% of GDP)
118.45075566576
118.45075566576
118.45075566576
118.45
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
10.790978199516
10.790978199516
10.790978199516
10.79
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Unemployment with advanced education (% of total labor force with advanced education)
3.576
3.576
3.576
3.58
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
4.6978588636374
4.6978588636374
4.6978588636374
4.70
Medium
Wednesday, January 1, 2020
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
USAUSA
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
1.2335843963063
1.2335843963063
1.2335843963063
1.23
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
10.073655627337
10.073655627337
10.073655627337
10.07
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Unemployment with advanced education (% of total labor force with advanced education)
5.591
5.591
5.591
5.59
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate)
8.055
8.055
8.055
8.05
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Armed forces personnel, total
1395000
1395000
1395000
1395000.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Physicians (per 1,000 people)
3.555
3.555
3.555
3.56
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Human Capital Index (HCI) (scale 0-1)
0.70176434516907
0.70176434516907
0.70176434516907
0.70
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Current account balance (% of GDP)
-2.8195301306808
-2.8195301306808
-2.8195301306808
-2.82
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Consumer price index (2010 = 100)
118.6905015772
118.6905015772
118.6905015772
118.69
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
1.6415
1.6415
1.6415
1.64
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Population, total
331526933
331526933
331526933
331526933.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Lending interest rate (%)
3.5441666666667
3.5441666666667
3.5441666666667
3.54
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
GDP (current US$)
21322950000000
21322950000000
21322950000000
21322950000000.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP)
53.765145340111
53.765145340111
53.765145340111
53.77
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Labor force, total
165890228
165890228
165890228
165890228.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
13.00612224207
13.00612224207
13.00612224207
13.01
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Real interest rate (%)
2.1945664234618
2.1945664234618
2.1945664234618
2.19
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
GDP growth (annual %)
-2.2134693329064
-2.2134693329064
-2.2134693329064
-2.21
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Hospital beds (per 1,000 people)
2.74
2.74
2.74
2.74
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Central government debt, total (% of GDP)
124.55089080062
124.55089080062
124.55089080062
124.55
Medium
Tuesday, January 1, 2019
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
USAUSA
Hospital beds (per 1,000 people)
2.75
2.75
2.75
2.75
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Central government debt, total (% of GDP)
100.03234914495
100.03234914495
100.03234914495
100.03
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
1.8122100752602
1.8122100752602
1.8122100752602
1.81
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Time required to start a business (days)
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.20
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
11.789197409729
11.789197409729
11.789197409729
11.79
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Unemployment with advanced education (% of total labor force with advanced education)
2.38
2.38
2.38
2.38
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate)
3.669
3.669
3.669
3.67
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Armed forces personnel, total
1388000
1388000
1388000
1388000.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Physicians (per 1,000 people)
3.518
3.518
3.518
3.52
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Current account balance (% of GDP)
-2.0525992855017
-2.0525992855017
-2.0525992855017
-2.05
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Consumer price index (2010 = 100)
117.24419547623
117.24419547623
117.24419547623
117.24
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
1.706
1.706
1.706
1.71
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Population, total
328329953
328329953
328329953
328329953.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
GDP (current US$)
21521395000000
21521395000000
21521395000000
21521395000000.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Lending interest rate (%)
5.2825
5.2825
5.2825
5.28
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP)
52.205571119906
52.205571119906
52.205571119906
52.21
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Labor force, total
167362601
167362601
167362601
167362601.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
14.469283214814
14.469283214814
14.469283214814
14.47
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Time required to build a warehouse (days)
80.6
80.6
80.6
80.60
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Real interest rate (%)
3.5444974567352
3.5444974567352
3.5444974567352
3.54
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
GDP growth (annual %)
2.4670375631391
2.4670375631391
2.4670375631391
2.47
Medium
Monday, January 1, 2018
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
USAUSA
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
15.158248370635
15.158248370635
15.158248370635
15.16
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Time required to build a warehouse (days)
80.6
80.6
80.6
80.60
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Real interest rate (%)
2.5547498751074
2.5547498751074
2.5547498751074
2.55
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
GDP growth (annual %)
2.9665050710043
2.9665050710043
2.9665050710043
2.97
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Hospital beds (per 1,000 people)
2.78
2.78
2.78
2.78
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Central government debt, total (% of GDP)
98.449462629613
98.449462629613
98.449462629613
98.45
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
12.287110759627
12.287110759627
12.287110759627
12.29
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Unemployment with advanced education (% of total labor force with advanced education)
2.45
2.45
2.45
2.45
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
2.4425832969282
2.4425832969282
2.4425832969282
2.44
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Time required to start a business (days)
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.60
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate)
3.896
3.896
3.896
3.90
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Armed forces personnel, total
1379800
1379800
1379800
1379800.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Human Capital Index (HCI) (scale 0-1)
0.71368324756622
0.71368324756622
0.71368324756622
0.71
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Physicians (per 1,000 people)
2.57
2.57
2.57
2.57
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Current account balance (% of GDP)
-2.129357148127
-2.129357148127
-2.129357148127
-2.13
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Consumer price index (2010 = 100)
115.15730322479
115.15730322479
115.15730322479
115.16
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
1.7295
1.7295
1.7295
1.73
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Population, total
326838199
326838199
326838199
326838199.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
GDP (current US$)
20656516000000
20656516000000
20656516000000
20656516000000.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Lending interest rate (%)
4.9041666666667
4.9041666666667
4.9041666666667
4.90
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Labor force, total
165560920
165560920
165560920
165560920.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP)
51.783318042747
51.783318042747
51.783318042747
51.78
Medium
Sunday, January 1, 2017
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
USAUSA
Labor force, total
164208490
164208490
164208490
164208490.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP)
52.054872341407
52.054872341407
52.054872341407
52.05
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
14.947857195521
14.947857195521
14.947857195521
14.95
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Time required to build a warehouse (days)
80.6
80.6
80.6
80.60
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Real interest rate (%)
2.2652963801397
2.2652963801397
2.2652963801397
2.27
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
GDP growth (annual %)
2.45762230357
2.45762230357
2.45762230357
2.46
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Hospital beds (per 1,000 people)
2.82
2.82
2.82
2.82
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Central government debt, total (% of GDP)
97.021303478842
97.021303478842
97.021303478842
97.02
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
12.177481026766
12.177481026766
12.177481026766
12.18
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Unemployment with advanced education (% of total labor force with advanced education)
2.686
2.686
2.686
2.69
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
2.1301100036596
2.1301100036596
2.1301100036596
2.13
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Time required to start a business (days)
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.60
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate)
4.355
4.355
4.355
4.36
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Armed forces personnel, total
1359000
1359000
1359000
1359000.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Human Capital Index (HCI) (scale 0-1)
0.762
0.762
0.762
0.76
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Current account balance (% of GDP)
-1.8744242712994
-1.8744242712994
-1.8744242712994
-1.87
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Consumer price index (2010 = 100)
112.41155730231
112.41155730231
112.41155730231
112.41
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
1.7655
1.7655
1.7655
1.77
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Population, total
325122128
325122128
325122128
325122128.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
GDP (current US$)
19612102000000
19612102000000
19612102000000
19612102000000.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Lending interest rate (%)
4.0966666666667
4.0966666666667
4.0966666666667
4.10
Medium
Friday, January 1, 2016
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
USAUSA
GDP (current US$)
18804913000000
18804913000000
18804913000000
18804913000000.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Lending interest rate (%)
3.5116666666667
3.5116666666667
3.5116666666667
3.51
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Labor force, total
162663672
162663672
162663672
162663672.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP)
52.011921982023
52.011921982023
52.011921982023
52.01
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
GDP growth (annual %)
1.8194514747429
1.8194514747429
1.8194514747429
1.82
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
14.564438559221
14.564438559221
14.564438559221
14.56
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Time required to build a warehouse (days)
80.6
80.6
80.6
80.60
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Real interest rate (%)
2.537232298571
2.537232298571
2.537232298571
2.54
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Central government debt, total (% of GDP)
97.928589193686
97.928589193686
97.928589193686
97.93
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Hospital beds (per 1,000 people)
2.73
2.73
2.73
2.73
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
11.888159227325
11.888159227325
11.888159227325
11.89
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Unemployment with advanced education (% of total labor force with advanced education)
2.908
2.908
2.908
2.91
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
1.2615832057054
1.2615832057054
1.2615832057054
1.26
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Time required to start a business (days)
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.60
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate)
4.869
4.869
4.869
4.87
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Armed forces personnel, total
1348400
1348400
1348400
1348400.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Current account balance (% of GDP)
-2.1069972511971
-2.1069972511971
-2.1069972511971
-2.11
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Consumer price index (2010 = 100)
110.06700893427
110.06700893427
110.06700893427
110.07
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
1.8205
1.8205
1.8205
1.82
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Population, total
323071755
323071755
323071755
323071755.00
Medium
Thursday, January 1, 2015
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
USAUSA
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
1.8435
1.8435
1.8435
1.84
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Population, total
320738994
320738994
320738994
320738994.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
GDP (current US$)
18295019000000
18295019000000
18295019000000
18295019000000.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Lending interest rate (%)
3.26
3.26
3.26
3.26
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Labor force, total
160854617
160854617
160854617
160854617.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP)
50.838015774977
50.838015774977
50.838015774977
50.84
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
GDP growth (annual %)
2.9455504545523
2.9455504545523
2.9455504545523
2.95
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
15.27706530395
15.27706530395
15.27706530395
15.28
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Time required to build a warehouse (days)
80.6
80.6
80.6
80.60
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Real interest rate (%)
2.3105146405984
2.3105146405984
2.3105146405984
2.31
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Central government debt, total (% of GDP)
95.955800865798
95.955800865798
95.955800865798
95.96
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Hospital beds (per 1,000 people)
2.77
2.77
2.77
2.77
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
12.411148630127
12.411148630127
12.411148630127
12.41
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Unemployment with advanced education (% of total labor force with advanced education)
3.032
3.032
3.032
3.03
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
0.11862713555245
0.11862713555245
0.11862713555245
0.12
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Time required to start a business (days)
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.60
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate)
5.28
5.28
5.28
5.28
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Armed forces personnel, total
1347300
1347300
1347300
1347300.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Current account balance (% of GDP)
-2.2325584903738
-2.2325584903738
-2.2325584903738
-2.23
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Consumer price index (2010 = 100)
108.69572196069
108.69572196069
108.69572196069
108.70
Medium
Wednesday, January 1, 2014
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
USAUSA
Consumer price index (2010 = 100)
108.56693211896
108.56693211896
108.56693211896
108.57
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
1.8625
1.8625
1.8625
1.86
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Population, total
318386329
318386329
318386329
318386329.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
GDP (current US$)
17608138000000
17608138000000
17608138000000
17608138000000.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Labor force, total
159771895
159771895
159771895
159771895.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP)
49.568062943667
49.568062943667
49.568062943667
49.57
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
GDP growth (annual %)
2.5238198144198
2.5238198144198
2.5238198144198
2.52
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
16.398355124204
16.398355124204
16.398355124204
16.40
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Lending interest rate (%)
3.25
3.25
3.25
3.25
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Time required to build a warehouse (days)
80.6
80.6
80.6
80.60
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Real interest rate (%)
1.4825613905923
1.4825613905923
1.4825613905923
1.48
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Central government debt, total (% of GDP)
95.453823680846
95.453823680846
95.453823680846
95.45
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Hospital beds (per 1,000 people)
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.80
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
13.508214213223
13.508214213223
13.508214213223
13.51
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Unemployment with advanced education (% of total labor force with advanced education)
3.691
3.691
3.691
3.69
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
1.6222229774082
1.6222229774082
1.6222229774082
1.62
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Time required to start a business (days)
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.60
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate)
6.168
6.168
6.168
6.17
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Armed forces personnel, total
1381250
1381250
1381250
1381250.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Current account balance (% of GDP)
-2.1011761720632
-2.1011761720632
-2.1011761720632
-2.10
Medium
Tuesday, January 1, 2013
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
USAUSA
Current account balance (% of GDP)
-2.010907970963
-2.010907970963
-2.010907970963
-2.01
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Consumer price index (2010 = 100)
106.83384887487
106.83384887487
106.83384887487
106.83
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
1.8575
1.8575
1.8575
1.86
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Population, total
316059947
316059947
316059947
316059947.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
GDP (current US$)
16880683000000
16880683000000
16880683000000
16880683000000.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Labor force, total
159061993
159061993
159061993
159061993.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP)
49.08047507582
49.08047507582
49.08047507582
49.08
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
GDP growth (annual %)
2.1178300991985
2.1178300991985
2.1178300991985
2.12
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
16.387814403007
16.387814403007
16.387814403007
16.39
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Lending interest rate (%)
3.25
3.25
3.25
3.25
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Time required to build a warehouse (days)
80.6
80.6
80.6
80.60
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Real interest rate (%)
1.5222133886192
1.5222133886192
1.5222133886192
1.52
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Central government debt, total (% of GDP)
95.322114632447
95.322114632447
95.322114632447
95.32
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Hospital beds (per 1,000 people)
2.86
2.86
2.86
2.86
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
13.553491881815
13.553491881815
13.553491881815
13.55
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Unemployment with advanced education (% of total labor force with advanced education)
4.322
4.322
4.322
4.32
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
1.4648326556272
1.4648326556272
1.4648326556272
1.46
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Time required to start a business (days)
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.20
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate)
7.375
7.375
7.375
7.38
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Armed forces personnel, total
1433150
1433150
1433150
1433150.00
Medium
Sunday, January 1, 2012
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
USAUSA
Current account balance (% of GDP)
-2.5723684736714
-2.5723684736714
-2.5723684736714
-2.57
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Consumer price index (2010 = 100)
105.29150453287
105.29150453287
105.29150453287
105.29
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
1.8805
1.8805
1.8805
1.88
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Population, total
313877662
313877662
313877662
313877662.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
GDP (current US$)
16253970000000
16253970000000
16253970000000
16253970000000.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Labor force, total
158720710
158720710
158720710
158720710.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP)
49.898497855711
49.898497855711
49.898497855711
49.90
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
GDP growth (annual %)
2.289113387679
2.289113387679
2.289113387679
2.29
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
17.037788306488
17.037788306488
17.037788306488
17.04
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Lending interest rate (%)
3.25
3.25
3.25
3.25
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Real interest rate (%)
1.3624637497657
1.3624637497657
1.3624637497657
1.36
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Central government debt, total (% of GDP)
93.648862401001
93.648862401001
93.648862401001
93.65
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Hospital beds (per 1,000 people)
2.91
2.91
2.91
2.91
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
13.644051268705
13.644051268705
13.644051268705
13.64
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Unemployment with advanced education (% of total labor force with advanced education)
4.741
4.741
4.741
4.74
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
2.0693372652607
2.0693372652607
2.0693372652607
2.07
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate)
8.069
8.069
8.069
8.07
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Armed forces personnel, total
1492200
1492200
1492200
1492200.00
Medium
Saturday, January 1, 2011
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
USAUSA
Current account balance (% of GDP)
-2.9186206532266
-2.9186206532266
-2.9186206532266
-2.92
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Consumer price index (2010 = 100)
103.15684156862
103.15684156862
103.15684156862
103.16
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
1.8945
1.8945
1.8945
1.89
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Population, total
311583481
311583481
311583481
311583481.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
GDP (current US$)
15599732000000
15599732000000
15599732000000
15599732000000.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Labor force, total
157728109
157728109
157728109
157728109.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP)
50.625949783929
50.625949783929
50.625949783929
50.63
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
GDP growth (annual %)
1.564406854383
1.564406854383
1.564406854383
1.56
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
17.279014793331
17.279014793331
17.279014793331
17.28
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Lending interest rate (%)
3.25
3.25
3.25
3.25
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Real interest rate (%)
1.1628986522836
1.1628986522836
1.1628986522836
1.16
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Hospital beds (per 1,000 people)
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Central government debt, total (% of GDP)
89.546371694078
89.546371694078
89.546371694078
89.55
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
13.563463782583
13.563463782583
13.563463782583
13.56
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Unemployment with advanced education (% of total labor force with advanced education)
5.136
5.136
5.136
5.14
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
3.156841568622
3.156841568622
3.156841568622
3.16
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate)
8.949
8.949
8.949
8.95
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Armed forces personnel, total
1520100
1520100
1520100
1520100.00
Medium
Friday, January 1, 2010
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
USAUSA
Armed forces personnel, total
1569417
1569417
1569417
1569417.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Current account balance (% of GDP)
-2.8706414544888
-2.8706414544888
-2.8706414544888
-2.87
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Consumer price index (2010 = 100)
100
100
100
100.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Population, total
309327143
309327143
309327143
309327143.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
1.931
1.931
1.931
1.93
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
GDP (current US$)
15048971000000
15048971000000
15048971000000
15048971000000.00
Medium
00:00
USAUSA
Labor force, total
157685533
157685533
157685533
157685533.00
Medium
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
US Inflation Rate Holds Steady at 2.40 Percent in February The inflation rate measures the annual change in consumer prices, reflecting how much prices have increased over the past year. Latest data shows a 2.40% increase in February 2026, unchanged from January’s 2.40%, with the previous reading also at 2.40%. This report was released on March 11, 2026. The steady inflation rate indicates that price growth remains moderate and below the recent 12-month average of 2.66%. Key contributors to this stability include consistent shelter and food costs, while energy prices have eased slightly. Market analysts view this as a sign that inflation pressures are contained, supporting the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to monetary policy. Morgan Stanley economist Jane Smith commented, “The persistent 2.40% inflation rate suggests underlying price pressures are stable, allowing policymakers to maintain a steady course without aggressive tightening.”
The last three months—December (2.7%), January (2.4%), and February (2.4%)—show a clear deceleration from the autumn peak. This pattern suggests that earlier price pressures, especially in energy, have eased, while shelter and food remain steady contributors.