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Data from Reserve Bank of Australia. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Interest Rate Decision held to 4.35% in June 2026
Reserve Bank of AustraliaMonthlyReleased June 2026
Australia Interest Rate Decision held to 4.35% in June 2026. The reading matched the 4.35% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.57%. Interest Rate Decision is now the highest in 75 months.
Latest Release
4.35
Actual
4.35
Consensus
4.35
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 11 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 4.35
Actual: 4.35
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Interest Rate Decision (Australia) was reported at 4.35% in June 2026. This matched the market consensus of 4.35% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.81%, ranging from 3.6% to 4.35% across 7 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.1%, up from the prior three at 3.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/NZD (Bullish AUD). Over the last 11 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul 23) and S&P Global Services PMI (Jul 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Interest Rate Decision - AU
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About Interest Rate Decision — Australia
DEFINITION
The Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the decision made by a central bank or monetary authority to either increase, decrease, or maintain the current interest rates. This decision has a significant impact on the economy, as it affects the cost of borrowing money, inflation rates, and overall economic growth. Investors and businesses closely monitor interest rate decisions as they can have a significant impact on financial markets and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 4.35 %, consensus 4.35 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 4.35 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 4.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/NZD (Bullish AUD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Thursday, July 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | AU | Westpac Leading Index MoM | 0 | -0.2 | -0.35 | Low | |