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Data from Reserve Bank of Australia. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Interest Rate Decision climbed to 4.35% in May 2026
Reserve Bank of AustraliaMonthlyReleased May 2026
Australia Interest Rate Decision climbed to 4.35% in May 2026, up 0.25% from April's 4.1% reading. The reading matched the 4.35% consensus. Interest Rate Decision has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Interest Rate Decision is now the highest in 73 months.
Latest Release
4.35
Actual
4.35
Consensus
4.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 10 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 4.1
Actual: 4.1
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Interest Rate Decision (Australia) was reported at 4.35% in May 2026. This matched the market consensus of 4.35% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.74%, ranging from 3.6% to 4.1% across 7 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.85%, up from the prior three at 3.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/NZD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 10 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Construction Work Done QoQ (May 27) and Inflation Rate YoY (May 27).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Interest Rate Decision - AU
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About Interest Rate Decision — Australia
DEFINITION
The Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the decision made by a central bank or monetary authority to either increase, decrease, or maintain the current interest rates. This decision has a significant impact on the economy, as it affects the cost of borrowing money, inflation rates, and overall economic growth. Investors and businesses closely monitor interest rate decisions as they can have a significant impact on financial markets and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 4.35 %, consensus 4.35 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 4.1 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 3.85 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/NZD (Bullish AUD, r=0.46) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.