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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia NAB Business Confidence climbed to -5 in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Australia NAB Business Confidence climbed to -5 in June 2026, released July 2026, up 9 from May's -14 reading. The print exceeded the -12 consensus by 7. NAB Business Confidence has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, NAB Business Confidence averaged -19, vs -6 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 15th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-5
Actual
-12
Consensus
-14
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.5
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -8
Actual: -5
Error: -3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.77 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P/ASX 200 | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
NAB Business Confidence (Australia) was reported at -5.00 in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -12.00 by 7.00. The reading rose from the previous value of -14.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -1.18, ranging from -24.00 to 7.00 across 11 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -14.33, down from the prior three at 1.67. Volatility over the past year (σ 9.30) is higher than the prior year (σ 3.09). In July readings over the past 3 years, NAB Business Confidence has averaged 1.33.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.50.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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NAB Business Confidence - AU
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About NAB Business Confidence — Australia
DEFINITION
NAB Business Confidence is a key financial indicator that measures the overall sentiment and outlook of businesses in Australia. It is based on a survey of business owners and managers, and provides valuable insights into the current and future state of the economy. A high NAB Business Confidence reading indicates a positive outlook for business growth and investment, while a low reading may suggest a more cautious approach. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can impact financial markets and decision-making.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -5, consensus -12. Prior reading (May 2026): -14. Before that (Apr 2026): -24.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.77) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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