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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia NAB Business Confidence fell to -13 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Australia NAB Business Confidence fell to -13 in September 2026, released October 2026, down 4 from August's -9 reading. The reading missed the -9 consensus by 4. NAB Business Confidence has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, NAB Business Confidence averaged -7, vs -14.33 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 15th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-13
Actual
-9
Consensus
-9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.5
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -9
Actual: -13
Error: +4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.73 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
NAB Business Confidence (Australia) was reported at -13.00 in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -9.00 by 4.00. The reading fell from the previous value of -9.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -5.27, ranging from -24.00 to 6.00 across 11 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -9.00, up from the prior three at -14.33. Volatility over the past year (σ 8.61) is higher than the prior year (σ 3.65). In October readings over the past 3 years, NAB Business Confidence has averaged -2.67.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.50.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 10, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC AUD speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Building Permits MoM (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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NAB Business Confidence - AU
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About NAB Business Confidence — Australia
DEFINITION
NAB Business Confidence is a key financial indicator that measures the overall sentiment and outlook of businesses in Australia. It is based on a survey of business owners and managers, and provides valuable insights into the current and future state of the economy. A high NAB Business Confidence reading indicates a positive outlook for business growth and investment, while a low reading may suggest a more cautious approach. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can impact financial markets and decision-making.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -13, consensus -9. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -8. Before that (Jul 2026): -6.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD, r=-0.73) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | AU | Import Prices QoQ | -1.1 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 0.10 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Export Prices QoQ | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.35 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit YoY | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 8.32 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Housing Credit MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.43 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.57 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Producer Price Index QoQ | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1 | 1.27 | Medium |
| 00:30 | AU | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 4.55 | Low |