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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia NAB Business Confidence climbed to -24 in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Australia NAB Business Confidence climbed to -24 in April 2026, released May 2026, up 5 from March's -29 reading. The print exceeded the -32 consensus by 8. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.58. Over the past 3 months, NAB Business Confidence averaged -15, vs 2.33 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 6th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-24
Actual
-32
Consensus
-29
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.5
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Feb 2026
Predicted: 3.5
Actual: 3
Error: +0.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.90 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
NAB Business Confidence (Australia) was reported at -24.00 in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of -32.00 by 8.00. The reading rose from the previous value of -29.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.70, ranging from -1.00 to 7.00 across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.67, down from the prior three at 4.67. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.49) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.01). In March readings over the past 3 years, NAB Business Confidence has averaged -0.67.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.50.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Construction Work Done QoQ (May 27) and Inflation Rate YoY (May 27).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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NAB Business Confidence - AU
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About NAB Business Confidence — Australia
DEFINITION
NAB Business Confidence is a key financial indicator that measures the overall sentiment and outlook of businesses in Australia. It is based on a survey of business owners and managers, and provides valuable insights into the current and future state of the economy. A high NAB Business Confidence reading indicates a positive outlook for business growth and investment, while a low reading may suggest a more cautious approach. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can impact financial markets and decision-making.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -24, consensus -32. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -29. Before that (Feb 2026): -1.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.90) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.