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Australia NAB Business Confidence climbed to -24 in April 2026, released May 2026, up 5 from March's -29 reading. The print exceeded the -32 consensus by 8. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.58. Over the past 3 months, NAB Business Confidence averaged -15, vs 2.33 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 6th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
across last 12 releases
Feb 2026
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.90 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
NAB Business Confidence (Australia) was reported at -24.00 in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of -32.00 by 8.00. The reading rose from the previous value of -29.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.70, ranging from -1.00 to 7.00 across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
The trailing three releases averaged 1.67, down from the prior three at 4.67. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.49) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.01). In March readings over the past 3 years, NAB Business Confidence has averaged -0.67.
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.50.
The next release is scheduled for June 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Construction Work Done QoQ (May 27) and Inflation Rate YoY (May 27).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
NAB Business Confidence is a key financial indicator that measures the overall sentiment and outlook of businesses in Australia. It is based on a survey of business owners and managers, and provides valuable insights into the current and future state of the economy. A high NAB Business Confidence reading indicates a positive outlook for business growth and investment, while a low reading may suggest a more cautious approach. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can impact financial markets and decision-making.
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -24, consensus -32. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -29. Before that (Feb 2026): -1.
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.90) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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| Wednesday, May 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | CPI YoY | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Low | ||
| 01:30 | Construction Work Done QoQ | -0.1 | 0.8 | 0.20 | Medium | ||
| 01:30 | CPI MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | ||
| 01:30 | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.45 | Medium | ||
| 01:30 | Inflation Rate MoM | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.70 | Medium | ||
| 01:30 | CPI | 102.44 | 103.2 | 103.25 | Low | ||
| Thursday, May 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | Capital Expenditure QoQ | -1.7 | 2 | 2.05 | Low | ||
| 01:30 | Household Spending YoY | 6.3 | 5.5 | 5.50 | Low | ||
| 01:30 | Household Spending MoM | 1.6 | -0.6 | -0.60 | Low | ||
| Friday, May 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | Housing Credit MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | ||
| 01:30 | Private Sector Credit MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low | ||
| 01:30 | Private Sector Credit YoY | 8.1 | 8 | 8.00 | Low | ||