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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia NAB Business Confidence fell to -8 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Australia NAB Business Confidence fell to -8 in August 2026, released September 2026, down 2 from July's -6 reading. The reading matched the -8 consensus. NAB Business Confidence has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, NAB Business Confidence averaged -5.5, vs -22.33 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 15th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-8
Actual
-8
Consensus
-6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.5
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -6.25
Actual: -8
Error: +1.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.67 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P/ASX 200 | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
NAB Business Confidence (Australia) was reported at -8.00 in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of -8.00 exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of -6.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -3.45, ranging from -24.00 to 7.00 across 11 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -6.33, up from the prior three at -13.00. Volatility over the past year (σ 8.90) is higher than the prior year (σ 3.47). In September readings over the past 3 years, NAB Business Confidence has averaged -2.67.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.50.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC AUD speculative net positions (Sep 18) and RBA Hunter Speech (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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NAB Business Confidence - AU
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About NAB Business Confidence — Australia
DEFINITION
NAB Business Confidence is a key financial indicator that measures the overall sentiment and outlook of businesses in Australia. It is based on a survey of business owners and managers, and provides valuable insights into the current and future state of the economy. A high NAB Business Confidence reading indicates a positive outlook for business growth and investment, while a low reading may suggest a more cautious approach. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can impact financial markets and decision-making.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -8, consensus -8. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -6. Before that (Jun 2026): -5.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.67) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | AU | Westpac Leading Index MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 01:00 | AU | Leading Index MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |