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Data from Reserve Bank of Australia. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia RBA Interest Rate Decision climbed to 4.1% in March 2026
Reserve Bank of AustraliaMonthlyReleased March 2026
Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision climbed to 4.1% in March 2026, up 0.25% from February's 3.85% reading. The reading matched the 4.1% consensus. RBA Interest Rate Decision has now risen for 3 consecutive months. RBA Interest Rate Decision is now the highest in 13 months.
Latest Release
4.1
Actual
4.1
Consensus
3.85
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 4.1
Actual: 4.1
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
RBA Interest Rate Decision (Australia) was reported at 4.1% in March 2026. This matched the market consensus of 4.1% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.85%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.74%, ranging from 3.6% to 4.1% across 7 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.85%, up from the prior three at 3.6%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.18%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.18%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/NZD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Construction Work Done QoQ (May 27) and Inflation Rate YoY (May 27).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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RBA Interest Rate Decision - AU
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About RBA Interest Rate Decision — Australia
DEFINITION
The RBA Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the monetary policy decisions made by the Reserve Bank of Australia. This decision, which is announced on a monthly basis, determines the official cash rate and has a significant impact on the economy, financial markets, and interest rates for loans and savings. It is closely monitored by investors, businesses, and individuals as it provides insight into the current and future state of the Australian economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual 4.1 %, consensus 4.1 %. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 3.85 %. Before that (Dec 2025): 3.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/NZD (Bullish AUD, r=0.45) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.