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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Caixin Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.3 in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2026
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.3 in January 2026, released February 2026, up 0.2 from December's 50.1 reading. The reading matched the 50.1 consensus. Caixin Manufacturing PMI has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Caixin Manufacturing PMI averaged 50, vs 50.77 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 38th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
50.3
Actual
50.1
Consensus
50.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.57
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Feb 2026
Predicted: 50.03
Actual: 50.3
Error: -0.27
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| USD/CNH | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Caixin Manufacturing PMI (China) was reported at 50.30 in February 2026. This beat the market consensus of 50.10 by 0.20. The reading rose from the previous value of 50.10. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through February 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 50.30, ranging from 49.50 to 51.20 across 7 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 50.10, down from the prior three at 50.77. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.50) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.93). In February readings over the past 3 years, Caixin Manufacturing PMI has averaged 50.40.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.57.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun 22) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2026.
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Caixin Manufacturing PMI - CN
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About Caixin Manufacturing PMI — China
DEFINITION
The Caixin Manufacturing PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the performance of China's manufacturing sector. It is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers from a variety of industries, providing valuable insights into the country's economic health and potential growth. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, businesses, and policymakers as it can impact market trends and inform strategic decision-making. With its timely and comprehensive data, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI is a crucial tool for assessing the overall strength of China's manufacturing industry.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 50.3, consensus 50.3. Prior reading (Dec 2025): 50.1. Before that (Nov 2025): 49.9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish USD, r=0.57) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.