Key Takeaways: Germany's GDP rose 0.3% in January, ending a seven-month flat streak. The print matches consensus and signals a tentative shift in momentum, though year-on-year growth remains muted.
Germany GDP Growth Returns: January’s 0.3% QoQ Print Breaks Stagnation
Germany’s economy posted its first quarterly expansion since mid-2025, with January’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rising 0.3% quarter-on-quarter. This marks a notable departure from the flat readings seen since May 2025, as the country’s output finally edges higher. Released today, the data aligns with market expectations and provides a fresh reference point for policymakers and investors tracking the eurozone’s largest economy.
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Net exports: +0.11pp
- Private consumption: +0.09pp
- Government spending: +0.05pp
- Fixed investment: +0.03pp
Policy pulse
The 0.3% GDP increase for January matches the Bundesbank’s stabilization narrative but remains well below the 1.2% annualized growth target.Market lens
Euro strengthened modestly on the release. Investors interpreted the print as a sign of resilience, though the muted scale of growth kept bond yields steady. Equities in Frankfurt opened slightly higher, reflecting cautious optimism.Foundational Indicators
Recent trend
January’s 0.3% QoQ gain follows seven consecutive months of zero growth, with November’s reading also at 0.0%. The 12-month average now stands at 0.04%, reflecting the prolonged stagnation since early 2025.Historical context
Compared to July 2025’s 0.0% and March 2025’s 0.0%, the latest figure marks the first positive movement since Q1 2025. Year-on-year, GDP remains nearly flat, underscoring the depth of last year’s slowdown.Methodology
The Federal Statistical Office compiles GDP using chain-linked volume measures, seasonally and calendar adjusted. Today’s release is preliminary and subject to revision[1].Chart Dynamics
January’s GDP rose 0.3% QoQ, up from November’s 0.0% and above the 12-month average of 0.04%. The print ends a seven-month stretch of stagnation, with the last positive reading recorded in March 2025. Over the past year, Germany’s GDP hovered at or near zero, reflecting persistent headwinds in manufacturing and trade. The latest uptick, while modest, breaks the pattern and could signal a turning point if sustained.
What This Chart Tells Us: The sharp break from a flat trend highlights a possible inflection in Germany’s economic cycle. Sustained gains above zero would confirm recovery, but the single positive print must be viewed in context of a still-fragile backdrop.
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
- Bullish: GDP growth accelerates to 0.5% or higher in coming quarters (probability: 20%).
- Base: Output stabilizes near 0.3% QoQ through mid-2026 (probability: 60%).
- Bearish: Growth slips back to zero or negative territory (probability: 20%).
Risks and catalysts
Upside: improving export demand, fiscal stimulus. Downside: energy price shocks, weak consumer sentiment, external trade friction.Data source
Figures sourced from the Federal Statistical Office and Sigmanomics database[1].Closing Thoughts
Market lens
German equities and the euro both responded positively to the GDP release. The move above zero, while modest, has improved sentiment among investors seeking evidence of stabilization. However, the persistence of weak year-on-year growth keeps expectations in check.Policy pulse
The Bundesbank has signaled patience, emphasizing the need for consistent improvement before considering any policy shifts. Today’s data offers a first step, but not yet a trend.Key Markets Reacting to Gross Domestic Product QoQ
Germany’s GDP print influences a broad range of asset classes, from equities to currencies. The following symbols, verified from Sigmanomics, have shown sensitivity to German macro releases:
- AAPL: Apple’s European revenues are exposed to German consumer trends.
- EURUSD: The euro-dollar pair often reacts to German GDP surprises.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s volatility can spike around major European economic data.
| Period | GDP QoQ (%) | EURUSD Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | 0.0 | -0.7 |
| Q3 2025 | 0.0 | -0.2 |
| Jan 2026 | 0.3 | +0.5 |
Since 2020, EURUSD has shown a positive correlation with German GDP surprises, with the largest moves occurring after breaks from stagnation.
FAQ
- What does Germany’s 0.3% GDP QoQ growth in January 2026 indicate?
- It marks the first expansion since early 2025, breaking a seven-month streak of zero growth and signaling tentative economic momentum.
- How does the latest GDP figure compare to previous months?
- January’s 0.3% rise follows flat readings from March through November 2025, representing a shift from stagnation.
- What is the focus keyword for this report?
- Gross Domestic Product QoQ
Germany’s GDP finally edges higher, but sustained growth remains uncertain.
Updated 2/25/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Destatis), GDP release, 2/25/26; Sigmanomics database, accessed 2/25/26.
