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Data from European Central Bank. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision held to 2.15% in April 2026
European Central BankMonthlyReleased April 2026
Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision held to 2.15% in April 2026. The reading matched the 2.15% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.46%. ECB Interest Rate Decision is now the lowest in 41 months.
Latest Release
2.15
Actual
2.15
Consensus
2.15
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 2.15
Actual: 2.15
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ECB Interest Rate Decision (European Union) was reported at 2.15% in April 2026. This matched the market consensus of 2.15% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.15%, ranging from 2.15% to 2.15% across 7 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.15%, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 0%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.65%). In March readings over the past 3 years, ECB Interest Rate Decision has averaged 3.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 11, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Car Sales YoY (May 27) and ECB Financial Stability Review (May 27).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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ECB Interest Rate Decision - EU
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About ECB Interest Rate Decision — European Union
DEFINITION
The ECB Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision on whether to increase, decrease, or maintain the interest rates in the Eurozone. This decision has a significant impact on the economy, as it affects borrowing costs, inflation, and overall economic growth. Investors and businesses closely monitor this indicator as it provides insights into the ECB's monetary policy and can influence market trends and investment decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.15 %, consensus 2.15 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 2.15 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 2.15 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.57) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.