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Data from Eurostat. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone GDP Growth Rate QoQ fell to -0.2% in Q1 2026
EurostatQuarterlyReleased June 2026
Eurozone GDP Growth Rate QoQ fell to -0.2% in Q1 2026, released June 2026, down 0.4% from December's 0.2% reading. The reading missed the 0.1% consensus by 0.3%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.22%. Over the past 3 months, GDP Growth Rate QoQ averaged 0.1%, vs 0.27% in the prior 3-month window. GDP Growth Rate QoQ is now the lowest in 37 months.
Latest Release
-0.2
Actual
0.1
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.1
Actual: -0.2
Error: +0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Bullish DAX | → View |
| EUR/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ (European Union) was reported at -0.2% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.1% by 0.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.15%, ranging from -0.2% to 0.3% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.03%, down from the prior three at 0.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.14%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.15%). In June readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate QoQ has averaged 0.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Jun 16) and Economic Sentiment (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate QoQ - EU
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About GDP Growth Rate QoQ — European Union
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Quarter over Quarter) is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage change in a country's gross domestic product from one quarter to the next. It provides valuable insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as well as its short-term growth trajectory. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2014): actual 0.2 %, consensus 0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.53) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.