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Data from Eurostat. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Retail Sales MoM climbed to 0.1% in August 2026
EurostatMonthlyReleased October 2026
Eurozone Retail Sales MoM climbed to 0.1% in August 2026, released October 2026, up 0.7% from July's -0.6% reading. The reading missed the 0.2% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.18%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales MoM averaged -0.45%, vs -0.1% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 70th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.1
Actual
0.2
Consensus
-0.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.19 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -0.13
Actual: 0.1
Error: -0.23
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales MoM (European Union) was reported at 0.1% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.2% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.16%, ranging from -0.6% to 0.2% across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.27%, down from the prior three at -0.1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.29%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.36%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales MoM has averaged 0.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.19%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC EUR speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Retail Sales MoM - EU
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About Retail Sales MoM — European Union
DEFINITION
Retail Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retail stores in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive MoM growth in retail sales indicates a strong consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown in economic activity. Retail Sales MoM is widely used to assess the health of the retail sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.1 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -0.6 %. Before that (Jun 2026): -0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.55) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | EU | Industrial Sentiment | -3.4 | -3.9 | -3.8 | -3.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 33.9 | 34.7 | 38 | 35.95 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Selling Price Expectations | 24.8 | 20.8 | 22 | 23.40 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Services Sentiment | 5.3 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Economic Sentiment | 96.9 | 97.5 | 97.5 | 97.20 | Medium |
| 10:00 | EU | Consumer Confidence | -17.9 | -16.8 | -17.9 | -17.90 | Low |
| 13:15 | EU | Deposit Facility Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | High |
| 13:15 | EU | Interest Rate Decision | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | High |
| 13:15 | EU | Marginal Lending Rate | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.30 | High |