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Data from Eurostat. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Retail Sales MoM climbed to 0.2% in May 2026
EurostatMonthlyReleased July 2026
Eurozone Retail Sales MoM climbed to 0.2% in May 2026, released July 2026, up 0.5% from April's -0.3% reading. The reading missed the 0.3% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.15%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales MoM averaged -0.23%, vs -0.13% in the prior 3-month window. Retail Sales MoM is now the highest in 10 months.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
0.3
Consensus
-0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.25
Actual: 0.2
Error: +0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.70 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.69 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales MoM (European Union) was reported at 0.2% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.08%, ranging from -0.5% to 0.3% across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.1%, down from the prior three at -0.1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.3%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.33%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales MoM has averaged -0.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Economic Sentiment (Jul 30) and Gross Domestic Product YoY (Jul 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Retail Sales MoM - EU
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About Retail Sales MoM — European Union
DEFINITION
Retail Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retail stores in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive MoM growth in retail sales indicates a strong consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown in economic activity. Retail Sales MoM is widely used to assess the health of the retail sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.2 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -0.4 %. Before that (Mar 2026): -0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.70) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Monday, July 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | EU | M3 Money Supply YoY | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.32 | Low |
| 08:00 | EU | Loans to Households YoY | 3 | 3 | 3.1 | 3.05 | Low |
| 08:00 | EU | Loans to Companies YoY | 4 | 4 | 4.1 | 4.17 | Low |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | EU | Economic Sentiment | 95 | 96 | 94.90 | Medium | |
| 09:00 | EU | Services Sentiment | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.30 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Unemployment Rate | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.20 | Medium | |
| 09:00 | EU | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 34 | 38 | 38.55 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | |
| 09:00 | EU | Industrial Sentiment | -7.7 | -7 | -7.25 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Selling Price Expectations | 22.3 | 25 | 27.55 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |