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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Balance of Trade fell to 301.9B in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Japan Balance of Trade fell to 301.9B in April 2026, released May 2026, down 341.1B from March's 643B reading. The print exceeded the -29.7B consensus by 331.6B. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -13.15B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 362.15B, vs 0.26B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 85th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
301.9
Actual
-29.7
Consensus
643
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±212.44 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 240.55
Actual: 301.9
Error: -61.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.76 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Japan) was reported at 301.90 billion in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of -29.70 billion by 331.60 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 643.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -95.12 billion, ranging from -637.60 billion to 301.90 billion across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 119.89 billion, up from the prior three at -155.45 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 248.05 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 869.97 billion). In May readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -92.13 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 212.44 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Capital Expenditure YoY (May 31) and BoJ Gov Ueda Speech (Jun 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Balance of Trade - JP
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About Balance of Trade — Japan
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 301.9 T, consensus -29.7 T. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 667 T. Before that (Feb 2026): 57.3 T.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.76) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.