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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Balance of Trade climbed to -536.6B in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan Balance of Trade climbed to -536.6B in September 2026, released October 2026, up 575.3B from August's -1,111.9B reading. The reading missed the -181B consensus by 355.6B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -159.87B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -870.05B, vs -38.4B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 20th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-536.6
Actual
-181
Consensus
-1111.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±68.55 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -182.88
Actual: -536.6
Error: +353.73
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Japan) was reported at -536.60 billion in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -181.00 billion by 355.60 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -1,111.90 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -280.83 billion, ranging from -1,105.60 billion to 301.90 billion across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -758.90 billion, down from the prior three at -6.50 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 407.52 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 825.16 billion). In October readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -355.17 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 68.55 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Retail Sales YoY (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Balance of Trade - JP
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About Balance of Trade — Japan
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -536.6 T, consensus -181 T. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -1,105.6 T. Before that (Jul 2026): -634.5 T.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.51) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 2.2 | -2.4 | 1.3 | 1.75 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.05 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.80 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low |