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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Balance of Trade fell to -634.5B in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Japan Balance of Trade fell to -634.5B in July 2026, released August 2026, down 224.6B from June's -409.9B reading. The print exceeded the -680B consensus by 45.5B. Balance of Trade has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 13 months.
Latest Release
-634.5
Actual
-680
Consensus
-409.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±120.14 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -587.05
Actual: -634.5
Error: +47.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Japan) was reported at -634.50 billion in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of -680.00 billion by 45.50 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -409.90 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -151.38 billion, ranging from -634.50 billion to 301.90 billion across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -237.10 billion, down from the prior three at 19.27 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 258.58 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 832.94 billion). In August readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -457.93 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 120.14 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Exports YoY (Sep 15) and Exports YoY (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Balance of Trade - JP
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About Balance of Trade — Japan
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -634.5 T, consensus -680 T. Prior reading (May 2026): -378.7 T. Before that (Apr 2026): 301.9 T.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.56) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | 0.5 | 4.1 | -1.3 | -0.40 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | JP | Tertiary Industry Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Exports YoY | 23.2 | 18.2 | 18.60 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -634.5 | -1052.6 | -959.65 | High | |
| 23:50 | JP | Imports YoY | 27.8 | 26.3 | 26.15 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | 9.7 | -2.8 | 1.10 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 16.9 | 15.3 | 18.45 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.69 | -0.98 | -0.92 | Medium | |