Japan’s Trade Balance Plunges to -1,152.7B JPY in January 2026

Japan’s trade balance deteriorated markedly in January, reversing a brief surplus and underscoring persistent headwinds for Asia’s second-largest economy.

Chart Dynamics

January’s print of -1,152.7B JPY reversed December’s 322.2B JPY surplus and sharply undercut the 12-month average deficit of -186.4B JPY. This is the largest monthly deficit since June 2025’s -637.6B JPY. Over the past six months, the balance swung from a modest surplus in December to deepening deficits in October (-234.6B JPY) and November (-231.8B JPY), before this latest plunge.

The year-over-year comparison is equally stark: January 2025 saw a surplus of 544.1B JPY, meaning the balance has deteriorated by 1,696.8B JPY in twelve months. The trend underscores mounting import pressures and softening export demand.

What This Chart Tells Us: Japan’s trade balance has deteriorated rapidly, with January’s deficit marking a clear break from the previous trend of narrowing gaps and occasional surpluses. The abrupt swing signals renewed vulnerability to external shocks and commodity price volatility.

---

Key Markets Reacting to Balance of Trade

Japan’s trade data reverberated across global markets, with currency, equity, and crypto assets all registering immediate moves. The yen’s slide reflected renewed concerns about external imbalances, while Japanese equities and select global stocks responded to shifting risk sentiment. Crypto markets, sensitive to macroeconomic shocks, also saw increased volatility.

• AAPL: Apple’s supply chain exposure to Japan means trade swings can affect component costs and delivery timelines.
• USDJPY: The yen weakened sharply on the headline deficit, with USDJPY spiking as traders repositioned for further currency volatility.
• BTCUSD: Bitcoin saw a brief uptick as risk-off flows and yen weakness spurred demand for alternative assets.

FAQ

What does Japan’s January 2026 trade deficit mean for the economy?

The -1,152.7B JPY deficit signals renewed external pressures, with rising imports and weaker exports challenging Japan’s growth outlook.

How does this month’s trade balance compare to recent history?

January’s deficit is the largest since June 2025 and a sharp reversal from December’s surplus, highlighting increased volatility in Japan’s external accounts.

Why is the Balance of Trade important for Japan?

It reflects the country’s export-import dynamics, influences currency strength, and shapes monetary policy decisions.

Japan’s trade balance reversal in January 2026 highlights persistent vulnerabilities and the need for policy vigilance.

Updated 2/18/26

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

1. Ministry of Finance Japan, Trade Statistics, January 2026 release
2. Sigmanomics Economic Database, JP Balance of Trade series