GDP Growth Rate QOQ - JP Economic Data | Sigmanomics
Japan GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
Actual
0.5
Consensus
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Previous
Japan’s GDP Growth Rate QoQ rose 0.10% in January 2026, rebounding from December’s -0.60% but missing the 0.50% consensus. The increase from -0.60% to 0.10% signals a return to mild expansion after two quarters of contraction, though growth momentum remains fragile. Market reaction was muted with USDJPY trading in a narrow range and the Bank of Japan maintaining its accommodative policy stance. Updated 2/16/26
GDP Growth Rate QOQ - JP
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Japan’s GDP grew 0.10% quarter-on-quarter in January, rebounding from December’s -0.60%. Growth remains below the 0.50% consensus and lags the 12-month average. Market reaction muted as underlying momentum stays fragile.
Japan GDP Growth Rate QoQ: January’s Tepid Recovery Signals Ongoing Fragility
Japan’s GDP Growth Rate QoQ for January 2026 registered a modest 0.10%, marking a return to positive territory after December’s contraction. The figure fell short of the 0.50% market estimate, underscoring persistent headwinds for the world’s third-largest economy.
Japan’s 0.10% GDP growth remains well below the Bank of Japan’s medium-term target for sustainable expansion, reflecting ongoing structural challenges.
Market Lens
Yen and equities showed limited movement following the release. Investors appeared to have priced in weak growth, with the Nikkei 225 holding steady and USDJPY trading in a narrow band.
Foundational Indicators
Historical Context
January 2026: 0.10%
December 2025: -0.60%
November 2025: -0.40%
September 2025: 0.50%
August 2025: 0.30%
Comparative Analysis
January’s reading is the first positive print since September’s 0.50%, but remains below the 12-month average of 0.10%. The rebound from two consecutive quarters of contraction signals stabilization, though momentum is subdued.
Methodology
Figures are sourced from the Cabinet Office of Japan and cross-verified with the Sigmanomics database[1]. Data reflect seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter changes in real GDP, measured in constant prices.
Chart Dynamics
January’s 0.10% GDP growth marks a sharp turnaround from December’s -0.60%, but falls short of the 0.50% seen in September and the market consensus for this month. The 12-month average remains at 0.10%, highlighting the lack of sustained momentum.
Compared to August’s 0.30% and September’s 0.50%, Japan’s output has struggled to regain traction. The latest print suggests a fragile recovery, with growth rates oscillating between mild expansion and contraction since mid-2025.
GDP Growth Rate QoQ trend (August 2025 – January 2026)
What This Chart Tells Us: The chart underscores Japan’s volatile growth path over the past six months. After peaking at 0.50% in September, GDP contracted for two quarters before a modest rebound in January. The pattern signals ongoing vulnerability to both domestic and external shocks.
Forward Outlook
Scenario Analysis
Bullish (20–30%): Private consumption and exports accelerate, pushing growth above 0.30% in coming quarters.
Base (50–60%): GDP hovers near 0.10–0.20% as structural headwinds persist and policy remains accommodative.
Bearish (15–25%): External demand weakens or domestic spending falters, risking a return to negative growth.
Risks and Catalysts
Upside risks include stronger wage growth and fiscal stimulus. Downside risks stem from global demand softness and yen volatility. The Bank of Japan’s policy stance remains a key variable for market sentiment.
Closing Thoughts
Market Lens
Investors remain cautious as growth underwhelms expectations. The muted GDP print reinforces a wait-and-see approach among equity and currency traders, with little immediate shift in positioning.
Data Source
All figures are sourced from the Cabinet Office of Japan and the Sigmanomics database[1]. Methodology is based on seasonally adjusted real GDP, reported quarterly.
Key Markets Reacting to GDP Growth Rate QoQ
Japan’s GDP print often moves both domestic and global markets. The following symbols from verified Sigmanomics listings have shown sensitivity to Japanese macro data. Each reflects a different asset class, providing a cross-market view of GDP’s impact.
AAPL (US equities): Indirect exposure via global supply chains and Japanese consumer electronics demand.
USDJPY (Forex): Directly tracks yen’s reaction to GDP surprises and growth outlook shifts.
BTCUSD (Crypto): Occasionally correlates with risk sentiment following major Japanese macro releases.
GDP Growth Rate QoQ vs. USDJPY since 2020
Year
GDP QoQ (%)
USDJPY Trend
2020
-7.90 to 5.30
Yen strengthened during contraction, weakened on recovery
2021
0.00 to 1.30
USDJPY stable, mild yen depreciation
2022
-0.10 to 0.90
Yen weakened as growth lagged peers
2023–2025
-0.60 to 0.50
Volatility increased with GDP swings
Jan 2026
0.10
USDJPY range-bound post-release
Since 2020, USDJPY has responded most sharply to negative GDP surprises, with muted moves on in-line or modestly positive prints.
FAQ
What does Japan’s latest GDP Growth Rate QoQ reveal?
Japan’s GDP expanded 0.10% in January 2026, rebounding from December’s -0.60% but falling short of the 0.50% consensus. The data signals ongoing economic fragility.
How does this GDP print compare historically?
January’s 0.10% growth is the first positive reading since September 2025’s 0.50%, but remains below the 12-month average and recent highs.
Why is GDP Growth Rate QoQ important for markets?
GDP Growth Rate QoQ is a key indicator of Japan’s economic momentum, influencing currency, equity, and global risk sentiment.
Japan’s GDP rebound to 0.10% in January signals stabilization, but persistent headwinds keep growth subdued.
By Kenji Nakamura
Senior Financial Correspondent
Tokyo Bureau
Updated 2/16/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Cabinet Office of Japan, GDP Statistics, https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/menu.html
Japan GDP Growth Rate QoQ January Shows Modest Economic Recovery Japan GDP Growth Rate QoQ January 2026 Report The GDP Growth Rate QoQ measures the percentage change in a country's economic output from one quarter to the next, reflecting short-term economic momentum. For Japan (JP), January 2026’s GDP Growth Rate QoQ came in at 0.10%, below the 0.50% consensus estimate and following December’s -0.60% contraction. Fast facts: 1) Latest GDP Growth Rate QoQ: 0.10%, 2) Previous quarter: -0.60%, 3) Release date: February 15, 2026. This modest rebound signals a fragile recovery amid ongoing structural challenges and subdued domestic demand. Morgan Stanley economist Yuki Tanaka noted, “While the slight uptick in Japan’s GDP Growth Rate QoQ offers some relief, the pace remains too slow to suggest a durable turnaround.” The Bank of Japan’s accommodative policy continues to support growth, but external risks and weak consumer spending keep the outlook cautious. Market reaction was muted, with the yen and equity markets showing little volatility after the release.
January’s 0.10% GDP growth marks a sharp turnaround from December’s -0.60%, but falls short of the 0.50% seen in September and the market consensus for this month. The 12-month average remains at 0.10%, highlighting the lack of sustained momentum.
Compared to August’s 0.30% and September’s 0.50%, Japan’s output has struggled to regain traction. The latest print suggests a fragile recovery, with growth rates oscillating between mild expansion and contraction since mid-2025.