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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan GDP Growth Rate QoQ climbed to 0.5% in Q1 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased May 2026
Japan GDP Growth Rate QoQ climbed to 0.5% in Q1 2026, released May 2026, up 0.3% from December's 0.2% reading. The print exceeded the 0.4% consensus by 0.1%. GDP Growth Rate QoQ has now risen for 4 consecutive months. GDP Growth Rate QoQ is now the highest in 12 months.
Latest Release
0.5
Actual
0.4
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.19 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.4
Actual: 0.5
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Japan) was reported at 0.5% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.4% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.09%, ranging from -0.6% to 0.5% across 8 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.3%, up from the prior three at -0.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.38%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.44%). In May readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate QoQ has averaged -0.07%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.19%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts YoY (May 28) and Unemployment Rate (May 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate QoQ - JP
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About GDP Growth Rate QoQ — Japan
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Quarter over Quarter) is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage change in a country's gross domestic product from one quarter to the next. It provides valuable insight into the overall health and growth of the economy, and is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions. A positive GDP Growth Rate QoQ indicates a growing economy, while a negative rate suggests a decline. This indicator is an important tool for assessing the current state and predicting future trends of a country's economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 0.5 %, consensus 0.4 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 0.3 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.