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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan GDP Growth Rate QoQ fell to 0.4% in Q2 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased September 2026
Japan GDP Growth Rate QoQ fell to 0.4% in Q2 2026, released September 2026, down 0.1% from March's 0.5% reading. The reading matched the 0.4% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.16%. The reading is in the 66th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
0.4
Consensus
0.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.17 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.3
Actual: 0.4
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Japan) was reported at 0.4% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.4% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.14%, ranging from -0.6% to 0.5% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.4%, up from the prior three at 0.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.39%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.28%). In September readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate QoQ has averaged 0.53%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.18%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Exports YoY (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate QoQ - JP
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About GDP Growth Rate QoQ — Japan
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Quarter over Quarter) is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage change in a country's gross domestic product from one quarter to the next. It provides valuable insight into the overall health and growth of the economy, and is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions. A positive GDP Growth Rate QoQ indicates a growing economy, while a negative rate suggests a decline. This indicator is an important tool for assessing the current state and predicting future trends of a country's economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.3 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.3 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.53) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | 0.5 | 4.1 | -1.3 | -0.40 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | JP | Tertiary Industry Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.70 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Exports YoY | 23.2 | 18.2 | 18.60 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -634.5 | -1052.6 | -959.65 | High | |
| 23:50 | JP | Imports YoY | 27.8 | 26.3 | 26.15 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | 9.7 | -2.8 | 1.10 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 16.9 | 15.3 | 18.45 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.69 | -0.98 | -0.92 | Medium | |