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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Gross Domestic Product QoQ climbed to 0.3% in Q1 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Japan Gross Domestic Product QoQ climbed to 0.3% in Q1 2026, released May 2026, up 0.3% from December's 0.0% reading. The print exceeded the 0.2% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.15%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product QoQ averaged 0.15%, vs -0.1% in the prior 3-month window. Gross Domestic Product QoQ is now the highest in 6 months.
Latest Release
0.3
Actual
0.2
Consensus
0
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 11 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.3
Actual: 0.3
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.70 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Japan) was reported at 0.3% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.2% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.1%, ranging from -0.4% to 0.5% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.2%, up from the prior three at -0.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 11 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts YoY (May 28) and Unemployment Rate (May 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product QoQ - JP
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About Gross Domestic Product QoQ — Japan
DEFINITION
Japan's Gross Domestic Product QoQ rose 0.500000% in Q1 2026, beating the 0.400000% estimate. This marks an acceleration from Q4 2025's 0.200000%, signaling stronger economic expansion. Market focus now shifts to upcoming monetary policy decisions amid this growth momentum. Updated 5/19/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 0.5 %, consensus 0.4 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 0 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.70) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.