Gross Domestic Product QOQ - JP Economic Data | Sigmanomics
Japan Gross Domestic Product QoQ
Latest Release
0
Actual
0
Consensus
-0.3
Previous
Japan's Gross Domestic Product QoQ came in at 0.00% for February 2026, marking a stall after January's -0.30%. This flat reading ends a two-month contraction streak and highlights ongoing weakness in domestic demand and investment. Market reaction was muted, with the Bank of Japan maintaining its accommodative stance amid uncertainty over the economy's next move. Updated 3/10/26
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Gross Domestic Product QOQ - JP
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Japan's GDP growth stalled at 0.0% in February, halting a two-month recovery. The flat reading follows January's -0.3%, raising questions about the durability of Japan's economic momentum.
Japan GDP Growth Stalls in February: No Change After Recent Contraction
Japan's latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures show no quarter-on-quarter growth for February 2026, following a contraction in January. This stagnation interrupts the modest rebound seen at the end of 2025 and highlights persistent headwinds for Asia's second-largest economy.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
Private consumption: flat
Business investment: subdued
Net exports: minor drag
Policy pulse
The Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target remains distant as GDP growth stagnates. February's 0.0% print underscores the challenge of reigniting domestic demand.
Market lens
Japanese equities saw muted trading on the release, with the yen holding steady against the dollar. Investors appear cautious, awaiting clearer signals on the economy's next direction.
Foundational Indicators
Historical context
February's 0.0% GDP growth follows January's -0.3% and December's -0.2%. The last positive reading was November 2025 at 0.1%. Over the past six months, the average quarterly growth stands at -0.08%.
Key figures
February 2026: 0.0%
January 2026: -0.3%
December 2025: -0.2%
November 2025: 0.1%
September 2025: 0.3%
Policy pulse
The stagnant GDP reading keeps pressure on policymakers to maintain accommodative measures. The central bank's stance is unchanged, with no immediate shift in guidance.
Chart Dynamics
February's GDP print held at 0.0%, unchanged from January's -0.3% and well below the six-month average of -0.08%. The last time GDP was positive was November's 0.1%. This marks the third straight month of stagnation or contraction, a reversal from the modest 0.3% expansion in September.
The lack of growth reflects persistent weakness in both domestic and external demand. While the contraction pace has slowed, the absence of a rebound signals ongoing fragility in Japan's recovery.
Gross Domestic Product QoQ trend, September 2025 – February 2026
What This Chart Tells Us: Japan's GDP growth has lost momentum, with three consecutive months of stagnation or decline. The flat February reading, following a mild contraction in January, highlights the economy's struggle to regain traction amid weak consumption and tepid investment.
Forward Outlook
Scenario probabilities
Bullish: Growth rebounds to 0.2–0.3% in coming months (25% probability)
Base: GDP remains flat or slightly negative (60% probability)
Upside risks include a pickup in consumer spending and export demand. Downside risks stem from global slowdown and persistent domestic weakness.
Market lens
Bond yields were little changed, reflecting investor uncertainty about the growth outlook. The muted response signals a wait-and-see approach as markets digest the implications for monetary policy.
Methodology
Figures are sourced from the Japanese Cabinet Office and Sigmanomics database, based on seasonally adjusted real GDP at market prices[1].
Closing Thoughts
Key takeaways
Japan's economy remains in a holding pattern, with February's GDP growth flat after two months of contraction. The lack of momentum raises the stakes for policymakers seeking to engineer a durable recovery.
Market lens
Currency and equity markets showed limited reaction, underscoring the market's cautious stance. Investors are looking for clearer signals before repositioning.
Key Markets Reacting to Gross Domestic Product QoQ
Japan's GDP data typically influences a range of asset classes, from equities to currencies. The flat February reading prompted a subdued response, but several tradable symbols remain sensitive to shifts in Japan's growth trajectory. Below are key markets and their recent correlations with GDP trends.
AAPL (Stock): Apple shares often react to Japanese consumer demand and supply chain signals, with muted movement after the latest GDP release.
USDJPY (Forex): The yen's stability reflects market uncertainty, with GDP stagnation limiting directional moves.
BTCUSD (Crypto): Bitcoin's correlation with Japanese macro data is low, but risk sentiment can spill over during periods of economic stress.
Period
GDP QoQ (%)
USDJPY Change (%)
2020
-1.8
+5.2
2021
1.2
-2.4
2022
0.8
+13.6
2023
0.4
+7.9
2024
0.1
+2.1
2025
-0.2
+1.7
Since 2020, periods of negative GDP growth in Japan have generally coincided with yen weakness against the dollar, as seen in the USDJPY pair. The relationship is not perfectly linear, but GDP contractions tend to prompt defensive positioning in currency markets.
FAQ
What does Japan's latest GDP QoQ figure indicate?
Japan's GDP was flat at 0.0% in February 2026, signaling a pause in economic momentum after two months of contraction.
How does this GDP reading compare to recent months?
February's 0.0% follows January's -0.3% and December's -0.2%, marking three consecutive months without growth.
Why is Gross Domestic Product QoQ important for Japan?
This indicator measures short-term economic performance and influences policy, market sentiment, and investment decisions in Japan.
Japan's economic recovery remains fragile, with GDP growth stalling in February and no clear catalyst for near-term acceleration.
Updated 3/10/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Japanese Cabinet Office, Quarterly GDP Statistics, February 2026 release.
Sigmanomics Economic Database, Japan GDP QoQ historical series.
Economic Calendar - JP Events
Tuesday, March 10, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index MoM
-0.1
0.2
0.2
0.15
Low
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index YoY
2
2.3
2.3
2.25
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
24.2
25.3
22.5
24.82
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
-
47.6
48
48.10
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
-
50.1
50.4
50.30
Low
Monday, March 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Annualized
1.3
-2.6
0.2
0.75
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
-0.7
0.1
0.20
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
1.3
-0.2
0.2
-39002.72
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.4
3.5
3.4
3.38
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.13
Low
23:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0
-0.3
0
-0.03
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-2.5
-2.2
3.1
2.60
Medium
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
-
0.9
1
1.23
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-1
-2.6
-2.2
-2.33
Medium
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
3
2.4
2.6
2.60
Low
22:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
-
0.1
0.3
0.27
High
07:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
48.9
47.6
48
48.10
Low
06:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
48.9
47.6
48
48.10
Low
06:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
50
50.1
50.4
50.30
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
-
50.1
50.4
50.30
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
-
47.6
48
48.10
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
116.8
114.3
114.5
114.72
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
112.4
110.3
113
113.10
Low
04:00
JP
CB Leading Index
-
111
113.2
113.30
Low
01:15
JP
Current Account
941.6
728.8
1010
1812.13
Medium
Sunday, March 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.53
Low
23:50
JP
Current Account
3.15
728.8
1010
1812.13
Medium
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
3.3
1.5
1
1.23
Low
Wednesday, March 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
40
37.9
38.1
38.37
High
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI
53.9
53.1
53.8
53.80
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI
53.8
53.7
53.8
53.70
Low
00:30
JP
Services PMI
53.9
53.1
53.8
53.90
Low
Tuesday, March 3, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI
-
53.7
53.8
53.70
Medium
Monday, March 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Capital Expenditure YoY
6.5
2.9
2.3
4.40
Medium
23:50
JP
Monetary Base YoY
-10.6
-9.5
-9.8
-10.10
Low
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.18
1.2
1.19
1.19
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.62
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
53
51.5
52.8
53.08
Low
Friday, February 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-0.4
-1.3
-2
-2.70
Medium
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
5.7
20.2
12
14.40
Low
Thursday, February 26, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
2.3
2.6
1.2
2.03
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
1.8
-0.9
-0.6
-0.48
Medium
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
4.1
-2
1.5
2.22
Low
23:30
JP
Core CPI YoY
1.8
2
1.8
1.73
Low
23:30
JP
CPI
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.48
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
111
109.9
110.2
110.22
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.3
114.9
114.5
114.72
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
1.1
0.1
0.3
0.15
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
111
109.9
110.2
110.30
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-0.6
-1
-0.4
-0.68
Low
Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
-
0.1
0.3
0.15
Low
22:00
JP
CB Leading Index
-
109.9
110.2
110.30
Low
22:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-
-1
-0.4
-0.68
Low
Friday, February 20, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
53.8
53.1
52.5
52.73
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
52.8
51.5
52
52.25
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
53.8
53.7
53.3
53.65
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
52.8
51.5
51.3
51.58
Low
Thursday, February 19, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
1.5
2.1
1.9
1.80
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2
2.4
2.3
2.22
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
2.6
2.9
2.8
2.72
Low
00:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
13
7
9
9.67
Low
Wednesday, February 18, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
19.1
-11
8.5
10.65
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
16.8
-6.4
2
2.68
Medium
00:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
13
7
9
9.67
Low
Tuesday, February 17, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
0.46
-0.06
-0.18
0.05
Medium
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
16.8
5.1
12
13.53
Medium
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
-2.5
5.2
3
1.32
Low
Monday, February 16, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-0.1
-2.7
-0.1
-0.10
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization
1.3
-5.3
3
2.17
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
2.6
-2.2
2.6
3.43
Low
Sunday, February 15, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.23
Low
23:50
JP
GDP External Demand QoQ
0
-0.2
0.1
0.05
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
0.2
-0.2
156013
117010.08
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.48
Low
23:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0
-0.3
0.1
0.08
Low
23:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product YoY
0.2
-2.6
1.6
0.90
Medium
Wednesday, February 11, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index MoM
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.15
Low
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index YoY
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.25
Low
08:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
25.3
10.9
9.5
11.82
Low
Monday, February 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
50.1
50.5
50.3
50.20
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
47.6
48.6
48.8
48.90
Low
Sunday, February 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Current Account
7288
3674
1400
2202.13
Medium
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
4.5
4.4
4.6
4.63
Low
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
0.9
1.2
1.6
1.83
Low
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
2.4
0.5
1
1.00
Low
Friday, February 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.5
114.9
115.3
115.52
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
110.2
109.9
110.3
110.32
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
110.2
109.9
109.8
109.90
Low
03:00
JP
CB Leading Index
-
109.9
109.8
109.90
Low
Thursday, February 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-2.6
2.9
3.2
3.07
Medium
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-2.9
6.2
-2
-2.50
Medium
Wednesday, February 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI
53.1
51.1
52.8
52.80
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI
53.7
51.6
53.4
53.30
Low
00:30
JP
Services PMI
53.1
51.1
52.8
52.90
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
53.7
51.6
53.4
53.25
Medium
Monday, February 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Monetary Base YoY
-9.5
-9.8
-10.3
-10.60
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.5
50
51.5
51.78
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
51.5
50
51.5
51.67
Low
Friday, January 30, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
20.2
9.5
-3
-0.60
Low
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-1.3
-8.5
-4.4
-5.10
Medium
Thursday, January 29, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
2.6
-2.2
-1.3
-0.47
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
-0.9
1.1
0.9
1.02
Medium
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.19
1.18
1.18
1.18
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.62
Medium
23:30
JP
CPI
1.5
2
1.8
1.78
Low
23:30
JP
Core CPI YoY
2
2.3
2.2
2.13
Low
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
37.9
37.2
37.6
37.87
High
Tuesday, January 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.9
115.9
115.2
115.42
Low
Monday, January 26, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
109.9
109.8
110.5
110.52
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-1
-1.3
-0.7
-0.98
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
0.1
0.9
0.7
0.55
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
109.9
109.8
110.5
110.60
Low
Friday, January 23, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
-
0.75
0.75
0.75
High
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
-
51.1
50.9
51.13
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
-
51.6
51.5
51.85
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
-
50
50.3
50.55
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
-
50
50.1
50.27
Low
Thursday, January 22, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
-
3
2.8
2.72
Low
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
-
3
2.8
2.72
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
-
0.4
0.2
0.40
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
-
2.9
2.7
2.60
High
Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
-
0.06
-0.06
0.17
Medium
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
-
1.3
3.6
1.93
Low
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
-
6.1
6.1
7.63
Medium
Monday, January 19, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization
-5.3
3.3
0.8
-0.03
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-2.2
1.6
-2.1
-1.27
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-2.7
1.5
-2.6
-2.60
Low
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
-0.2
0.9
0.3
0.35
Low
Sunday, January 18, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
-11
7
-4
-1.85
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
-6.4
12.5
13.2
13.88
Medium
Wednesday, January 14, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index MoM
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.05
Low
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index YoY
2.4
2.7
2.4
2.35
Low
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
7
10
11
11.67
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
10.6
14.2
14.2
16.52
Low
00:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
7
10
11
11.67
Low
Tuesday, January 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
50.5
50.3
50.5
50.40
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
48.6
48.7
48.8
48.90
Low
Monday, January 12, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
4.4
4.2
4.1
4.13
Low
23:50
JP
Current Account
3674
2834
3594
4396.13
Medium
Friday, January 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
115.2
115.9
116.2
116.42
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
110.5
109.8
110.4
110.42
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
0.7
0.9
1.8
1.65
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-0.7
1
0.5
0.22
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
110.5
109.8
110.4
110.50
Low
Thursday, January 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
6.2
-3.5
2.7
2.20
Medium
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
2.9
-3
-0.9
-1.03
Medium
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
37.2
37.5
37.8
38.07
High
Wednesday, January 7, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
1.2
1.5
1.4
1.63
Low
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
0.5
2.6
2.3
2.30
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI
51.1
52
51.5
51.50
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI
51.6
53.2
52.5
52.40
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
51.6
53.2
52.5
52.35
Medium
Monday, January 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Monetary Base YoY
-9.8
-8.7
-8
-8.30
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
50
48.7
49.7
49.98
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
50
48.7
49.7
49.87
Low
Friday, December 26, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
-
1.6
0.3
1.02
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
-
1.7
0.9
1.02
Medium
Thursday, December 25, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-2.1
1.6
1.4
2.23
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
0.6
1.6
0.3
1.02
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
1
1.7
0.9
1.02
Medium
23:30
JP
Core CPI YoY
2.3
2.8
2.5
2.43
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.62
Medium
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.18
1.18
1.18
1.18
Low
23:30
JP
CPI
2.6
2.7
2.5
2.48
Low
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-8.5
3.2
0.4
-0.30
Medium
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
9.5
-10.1
12
14.40
Low
Wednesday, December 24, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-
-1.3
0.5
0.22
Low
06:30
JP
Leading Index MoM
-
0.9
1.8
1.65
Low
05:30
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-
-1.3
0.5
0.22
Low
05:30
JP
Leading Index MoM
-
0.9
1.8
1.65
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
109.8
108.2
110
110.02
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
115.9
114.9
115.4
115.62
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
-
0.9
1.8
1.65
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
109.8
108.6
110
110.10
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-
-1.3
0.5
0.22
Low
Friday, December 19, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:30
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
0.75
0.5
0.75
0.75
High
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
0.75
0.5
0.75
0.75
High
Thursday, December 18, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3
2.9
2.80
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3
3
3
2.92
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.4
0
0.20
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
3
3.1
3.1
3.03
Low
23:30
JP
CPI
3
3
3
2.98
Medium
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
0.06
0.07
-0.2
0.02
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
12.5
11.6
3.6
4.28
Medium
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
6.1
3.6
4.8
6.33
Medium
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
1.3
0.7
2.5
0.82
Low
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
7
4.2
-2.3
-0.15
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
52.5
53.2
51.6
51.95
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
49.7
48.7
49.5
49.75
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
51.5
52
51.9
52.13
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
49.7
48.7
49
49.17
Low
Monday, December 15, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
0.9
0.1
0.2
0.25
Low
Sunday, December 14, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
15
14
15
15.00
High
23:50
JP
Tankan Large All Industry Capex
12.6
12.5
12
12.30
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook
15
12
13
14.00
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Small Manufacturers Index
6
1
2
4.00
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook
28
28
28
28.00
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index
34
34
35
34.50
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Small Non-Manufacturing Index
15
14
15
15.00
Low
Friday, December 12, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
1.5
2.6
1.4
1.40
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization
3.3
2.5
0.5
-0.33
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
1.6
3.8
1.5
2.33
Low
Thursday, December 11, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-
16.8
9.4
11.72
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Japan GDP Growth Stalls in February With No Change Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of goods and services produced in a country over a specific period. Japan's GDP remained flat at 0.00% in February 2026, following a 0.30% contraction in January, with the latest release dated March 9, 2026. This zero growth reading interrupts a tentative recovery and highlights ongoing challenges in Japan's economic landscape. Despite some easing in contraction rates over recent months, the lack of expansion signals persistent weakness in domestic demand and investment. Analysts from Morgan Stanley note that the Bank of Japan’s accommodative monetary policy continues to support the economy, but structural issues and global uncertainties weigh heavily. "The flat GDP reading underscores the fragile nature of Japan’s recovery and the need for targeted fiscal measures," said economist Hiroshi Tanaka of Nomura Securities.
The lack of growth reflects persistent weakness in both domestic and external demand. While the contraction pace has slowed, the absence of a rebound signals ongoing fragility in Japan's recovery.