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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Gross Domestic Product QoQ climbed to 0.5% in Q2 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Japan Gross Domestic Product QoQ climbed to 0.5% in Q2 2026, released September 2026, up 0.2% from March's 0.3% reading. The reading matched the 0.5% consensus. Gross Domestic Product QoQ has now declined for 3 consecutive months. The reading is in the 67th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.5
Actual
0.5
Consensus
0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.18 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.05
Actual: 0.5
Error: -0.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Japan) was reported at 0.5% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.5% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.43%, ranging from -0.4% to 1.8% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.13%, up from the prior three at 0.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.67%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.34%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with Nikkei 225, negatively correlated (Bearish Nikkei 225). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.18%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Exports YoY (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product QoQ - JP
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About Gross Domestic Product QoQ — Japan
DEFINITION
Japan's Gross Domestic Product QoQ rose 1.400000% in Q2 2026, beating the 1.100000% estimate but down from Q1's 1.800000%. The economy showed slower growth compared to the previous quarter, indicating a deceleration in momentum. Market focus will remain on upcoming data releases and Bank of Japan policy signals. Updated 9/8/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1.4 %, consensus 1.1 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.5 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 1.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.66) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | 0.5 | 4.1 | -1.3 | -0.40 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | JP | Tertiary Industry Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.70 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Exports YoY | 23.2 | 18.2 | 18.60 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -634.5 | -1052.6 | -959.65 | High | |
| 23:50 | JP | Imports YoY | 27.8 | 26.3 | 26.15 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | 9.7 | -2.8 | 1.10 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 16.9 | 15.3 | 18.45 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.69 | -0.98 | -0.92 | Medium | |