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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Gross Domestic Product QoQ climbed to 1.8% in Q1 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Japan Gross Domestic Product QoQ climbed to 1.8% in Q1 2026, released June 2026, up 1.1% from December's 0.7% reading. The reading missed the 2.1% consensus by 0.3%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.17%. Gross Domestic Product QoQ is now the highest in 15 months.
Latest Release
1.8
Actual
2.1
Consensus
0.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.17 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 2.18
Actual: 1.8
Error: +0.38
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.74 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Japan) was reported at 1.8% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.1% by 0.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.33%, ranging from -0.4% to 1.8% across 8 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.8%, up from the prior three at -0.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bearish Nikkei 225). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.18%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product QoQ - JP
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About Gross Domestic Product QoQ — Japan
DEFINITION
Japan's Gross Domestic Product QoQ came in at 1.800000%, missing the 2.100000% estimate for the May quarter. This marks a decline from the previous 2.100000% reading in the prior quarter, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. Market participants will watch upcoming data for further signs of momentum amid cautious central bank policy. Updated 6/8/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 1.8 %, consensus 2.1 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 0.5 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Nikkei 225 (Bearish Nikkei 225, r=-0.74) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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