Crytpo outlook – July 2025
What does the second half of 2025 have in store?
As we enter the second half of 2025, digital assets have developed into a more mature market structure as the sector has seen record-breaking institutional inflows and formalising framework surrounding regulatory. Such examples include bitcoin ETF’s catalysing $50 billion of net inflows since their ETF debut and reaching fresh highs above $116,000, while ether reclaims $3,000 on renewed ETF demand. In this midst of this growth, macroeconomic conditions are at an inflection point. In its recent April 2025 release, the IMF slashed global 2025 growth to 3.3 percent siting trade-war risks. Further, market participants continue to price in a 2 to 3 points in the Fed rate cuts starting September. Why does this matter for crypto? As the crypto market has historically correlated positively with global M2 growth and negativately with real rates, a 4th quarter cut in raets could re-acclerate fiate liquidity and compound the scarcity effect.
More specific to digital assets, the U.S. congress, Genius act has cleared the senate, heralding the first federal stable-coin statute, while U.K.’s digital securitties sandbox recently went live.
| Scenario | Probability | BTC Target | ETH Target | Key Catalysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base – Gradual policy easing, stablecoin law enacted, SOL ETF approved Q4 | 55 % | US $150 k | US $4.5 k | 75 bp Fed cuts; ETF inflows continue at 60 % of H1 rate |
| Upside – Rapid Fed cuts, China green‑lights CNH stablecoin in HK | 25 % | US $200 k | US $6 k | Liquidity boom; USDT velocity accelerates; corporate treasuries 2 × BTC allocation |
| Downside – Mt.Gox overhang + macro stagflation | 20 % | US $90 k | US $2 k | 120 k BTC hit exchanges; Fed pauses easing; tariff escalation squeezes margins |
BTC Weekly Chart
Taking a look at the Bitcoin weekly chart, price action has reached another all time high in July 2025 of 118, 965. As remarkable as this maybe, RSI bearish divergence is concerning as this hints of a likely setback in the coming weeks to months. For now, setbacks are looked at as buying opportunities as the overall trend remains to the topside; however, as key support levels gives away, bears are likely to take control in the short to medium term before continuation of the overall trend.
Key levels to keep an eye on are trend line and psychological support at $90,000 followed by pivot support at $74,420.69. Stay tuned as the analysts at Sigmanomics will await topisde pivots before looking for confirmation of any turnaround.
Ethereum Weekly Chart
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Ethereum price action on its weekly time frame appears to have worked its way into a triangle formation that has started back in July 2022. With global macroeconomic policy still developing, market participants are waiting for cues of breakout on the back of fundamentals for direction. Key levels to keep a close eye on are 1600 support and 3600 resistance. Until then, range bound trading is likely.
