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A magnitude track record for our forecast bands: for every graded forecast-day we check whether the terminal close landed inside the stated 60%, 80% and 95% bands. Every forecast is logged when issued and graded on the realised close — nothing is dropped or re-touched. This page measures band containment only; it does not score direction.
Tracking since Jun 11, 2026 · 45,095 graded forecast-days · last realised Jul 6, 2026
Bands are currently under-covering — recalibration under review.
Over the current window the realised closes are landing outside the stated bands more often than the band level implies, so each band is capturing fewer forecast-days than its label. The numbers below are the real, un-adjusted results while the band sizing is being reviewed. This window is short (roughly the last few weeks of grading), so these figures will move as more forecast-days mature.
48.0%
of 60% target
60% band containment
45,095 graded forecast-days · 12 pts below target
68.5%
of 80% target
80% band containment
45,095 graded forecast-days · 11.5 pts below target
90.1%
of 95% target
95% band containment
45,095 graded forecast-days · 4.9 pts below target
Read as: of every 100 graded forecast-days, this many had their terminal close inside the stated band. A well-calibrated band would contain about its stated percentage; the marker on each bar below is the target.
52.0%
Trailing-30 day 60% breach rate
45,095 graded forecast-days realised in the last 30 days fell outside their 60% band (48.0% stayed inside).
Share of graded forecast-days whose terminal close landed inside the 60% band, per asset class. The vertical marker is the 60% target.
Forex
18,346
Stocks
15,253
Commodities
1,860
Crypto
8,985
Indices
651
The same 60% containment split by forecast horizon.
7-day
27,635
14-day
17,460
28-day
maturing — first grades ~Jul 9
—
A representative sample of graded forecast-days, each placed by how far its terminal close landed relative to its own 60% band. Dots outside the ±1 edges broke the 60% band.
The latest graded forecast-days whose terminal close fell outside the 60% band, newest first. “Bands held” shows which of the wider 80% / 95% bands still contained the close.
| Instrument | Horizon | Realised move | 60% half-width | Bands held | Realised |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
StocksCF | 7-day | +7.45% | ±2.54% | 80% ✗ · 95% ✓ | Jul 6, 2026 |
StocksCCI | 7-day | -4.69% | ±3.91% | 80% ✓ · 95% ✓ | Jul 6, 2026 |
StocksCBRE | 7-day | +3.27% | ±2.76% | 80% ✓ · 95% ✓ | Jul 6, 2026 |
StocksCBOE | 7-day | +6.01% | ±5.31% | 80% ✓ · 95% ✓ | Jul 6, 2026 |
StocksCAT | 7-day | -6.06% | ±5.68% | 80% ✓ · 95% ✓ | Jul 6, 2026 |
StocksBX | 7-day | +7.42% | ±4.10% | 80% ✗ · 95% ✓ | Jul 6, 2026 |
StocksBSX | 7-day | +2.65% | ±2.64% | 80% ✓ · 95% ✓ | Jul 6, 2026 |
StocksBRO | 7-day | +6.99% | ±3.14% | 80% ✗ · 95% ✓ | Jul 6, 2026 |
StocksBA | 7-day | +9.26% | ±3.60% | 80% ✗ · 95% ✓ | Jul 6, 2026 |
StocksZBRA | 7-day | +5.67% | ±5.31% | 80% ✓ · 95% ✓ | Jul 6, 2026 |
StocksAAPL | 7-day | +11.07% | ±3.45% | 80% ✗ · 95% ✗ | Jul 6, 2026 |
StocksBRK.B | 7-day | +2.15% | ±1.34% | 80% ✓ · 95% ✓ | Jul 6, 2026 |
Download the raw magnitude scores
The full containment table (per band, per market, per horizon) refreshed daily as a plain CSV.
Terminal-close grading
Each forecast-day is graded on the realised close at its target date. A band is contained when the close lands inside it — a plain inside/outside test, no partial credit.
Three stated bands
Every forecast carries 60%, 80% and 95% bands, sized from recent realised volatility. We report the realised containment of each separately.
Magnitude, not direction
This track record scores how far price moved versus the band width. It says nothing about whether price rose or fell, and nothing here is scored as a call.
Every forecast counts
All instruments and horizons are included the moment they mature. Nothing is filtered out and no result is edited after the fact.
Maturing horizons
A horizon appears only once its forecast-days have matured. The 28-day horizon is still maturing — first grades expected around Jul 9 — so it shows no rate yet rather than a misleading zero.
Open data
The aggregated results are published daily as a downloadable CSV so anyone can re-check the figures on this page.
Every forecast on Sigmanomics ships with the same 60/80/95 bands you see graded here.
View live forecasts