Sigmanomics March 2026 Stocks Forecast | Rally Meets Reality After Three Years of Double-Digit Gains
The U.S. stock market heads into March 2026 appearing to catch a much needed breath of fresh air after posting three straight years of double digit gains with stocks forecast now leaning toward consolidation and easing in the medium term. The S&P 500 rose approximately 24%, 23%, and 15% in 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively and is now attempting to build on that momentum; however, macroeconomic developments may be the bump on its bullish road to disrupt another year of positive gains. At the same time, in 2026, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) pushed above its 50,000 milestone for history, while the Nasdaq trades within single digit percentage points of its all time high to start off the year. Specifically, growing concerns of the sustainbility of datacenters are impacting AI names hardest – hence flattening of the Nasdaq in recent weeks. As such, with AI driving not only Nasdaq but the overall market, market participants should keep a close eye on developments or lack thereof for market cues.
U.S. Economic Overview and Outlook
Released in February 2026, the U.S. headline consumer price index report for January 2026 showed that consumer prices eased to a gain of 2.4 percent year-over-year, down from 2.7 percent gain from December 2025. This inflation report is tracking ahead of the Conference Board’s and J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s expectations of prices to ease into 2.3 and 2.2 percent respectively by the end of the year; however, tariff effects could push readings back up in the near to medium term.
The Conference Board US Economic Outlook, 2024-2027
Source: https://www.conference-board.org/
Taking a look at the chart above, the Conference Board forecasts unemployment to rise toward 4.7 percent in early 2026, which will be the highest level since the Covid-19 panademenic. With widespread hiring freezes and whaat appears to be an AI layoff contagoin occuring, higher unemployment risks are far from off the table. Other 2026 unemployment projections worth noting are:
- CBO – 4.6 percent
- Goldman Sachs – 4.5 percent
As these factors and forecasts remain in place, the futures market are pricing in a 92.3 percent probability that there will be no change to the Federal Reserve’s key rates of 3.5-3.75 percent at its March 17-18 FOMC meeting. That said, our Sigmanomics analysts are currently anticipating at least two rate cuts in 2026, with the first one likely beginning around June 2026.
Market Forecasts
Artificial intelligence (AI) remains the key market driver shaping the equity markets picture for 2026 on the back of an unprecedented capital deployment, with BigTech companies allocating about $530 billion in AI infrastructure for 2026, according to I/O Fund research.
SPX 500 Weekly Chart
Source: Sigmanomics.com
According to FactSet Research, which compiles analyst targets, the year-end level for the S&P 500 is in the range of 8,000, implying another 17 percent gain from February 2026 levels. A breakdown of their target report shows Deutsch Bank at the bullish end of a target of 8,000, while Bank of America sets conserative at 7,100.
Neha Gupta
Neha Gupta is a Chartered Financial Analyst with over 18 years of experience in finance and more than 11 years as a financial writer. She’s authored for clients worldwide, including platforms like MarketWatch, TipRanks, InsiderMonkey, and Seeking Alpha. Her work is known for its technical rigor, clear communication, and compliance-awareness—evident in her success enhancing market updates.
