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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
NorwayNorway Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision climbed to 4.25% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Norway Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision climbed to 4.25% in May 2026, up 0.25% from April's 4.0% reading. The print exceeded the 4.0% consensus by 0.25%. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.25%. Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision is now the highest in 10 months.
Latest Release
4.25
Actual
4
Consensus
4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 4
Actual: 4
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| EUR/NOK | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/NOK | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision (Norway) was reported at 4.25% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4% by 0.25%. The reading rose from the previous value of 4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.08%, ranging from 4% to 4.25% across 6 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4%, down from the prior three at 4.17%. In March readings over the past 3 years, Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision has averaged 4.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/NOK, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 18, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision - NO
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About Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision — Norway
DEFINITION
The Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the monetary policy decisions made by the central bank of Norway, Norges Bank. This decision, which is announced periodically, has a significant impact on the country's economy and financial markets. It serves as a crucial tool for investors, businesses, and individuals to understand the current and future state of the Norwegian economy and make informed financial decisions. The Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision is closely monitored by analysts and economists, making it an important factor in shaping market expectations and influencing investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 4.25 %, consensus 4 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 4 %. Before that (Dec 2025): 4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.57) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.