Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision for November 2025: Steady at 4.00%
Key Takeaways: Norges Bank held its key policy rate steady at 4.00% in December’s decision, matching market expectations and maintaining the level set since September 2025. This pause follows a series of rate cuts from 4.50% in mid-2025, reflecting a cautious stance amid moderating inflation and mixed macro signals. Financial markets showed muted reaction, while external risks and fiscal dynamics continue to shape Norway’s economic outlook.
Table of Contents
The Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision for November 2025, released on December 18, 2025, confirmed the policy rate at 4.00%, unchanged from October 2025. This marks the third consecutive month without a rate change following a downward adjustment from 4.50% in June 2025. The decision aligns with Norges Bank’s cautious approach amid evolving inflation dynamics and external uncertainties.
Drivers this month
- Inflation pressures have eased moderately, with CPI inflation slowing to 2.30% YoY in November from 2.60% in October.
- Domestic demand remains resilient but shows signs of softening, with retail sales growth slowing to 0.40% MoM in November versus 0.70% in October.
- Global energy prices, particularly oil, have stabilized but remain volatile due to geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
Policy pulse
The 4.00% policy rate sits just above Norges Bank’s estimated neutral rate of approximately 3.75%, indicating a mildly restrictive stance aimed at anchoring inflation expectations near the 2% target. The pause suggests the bank is monitoring incoming data before further adjustments.
Market lens
Following the announcement, the Norwegian krone (NOK) showed slight appreciation against the euro and dollar, reflecting confidence in the central bank’s steady approach. Short-term government bond yields remained stable, while equity markets showed limited volatility.
November 2025 macroeconomic data provide context for Norges Bank’s decision. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed to 2.30% YoY in November from 2.60% in October, continuing a downward trend from a peak of 3.10% in June 2025. Core inflation, excluding energy and food, held steady at 2.10%, indicating persistent underlying price pressures.
GDP and labor market
GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised upward to 1.10% QoQ, supported by strong services and export sectors. However, forward-looking indicators for Q4 suggest a moderation to around 0.60% QoQ. The unemployment rate remained low at 3.40% in November, unchanged from October, signaling a tight labor market.
Fiscal policy & government budget
The Norwegian government’s fiscal stance remains moderately expansionary, with the 2025 budget projecting a deficit of 1.20% of GDP, slightly higher than the 1.00% deficit in 2024. Increased public spending on infrastructure and green energy projects supports domestic demand but also raises medium-term inflation risks.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Global energy markets remain a key external factor. Brent crude prices averaged $85 per barrel in November, stable compared to October but down from $95 in August. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East pose upside risks to energy prices and inflation, which Norges Bank is closely monitoring.
What This Chart Tells Us
The steady policy rate after a series of cuts signals Norges Bank’s confidence that inflation is approaching target levels. However, the bank remains vigilant to external shocks and domestic demand fluctuations. The trend suggests a “wait-and-see” approach, balancing risks of overheating against growth concerns.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: NOK appreciated 0.30% against EUR and 0.20% against USD within the first hour post-announcement. This reflects market approval of the steady stance amid global uncertainty. Short-term yields on Norwegian government bonds remained flat, indicating stable expectations for future monetary policy.
Looking ahead, Norges Bank faces a complex environment balancing inflation control with growth support. The bank’s forward guidance suggests rates will remain at 4.00% through Q1 2026, contingent on inflation and labor market developments.
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (30% probability): Inflation falls faster than expected, allowing Norges Bank to cut rates by 25bps in Q2 2026, supporting growth recovery.
- Base (50% probability): Inflation stabilizes near 2%, with rates held steady through mid-2026, maintaining a neutral monetary stance.
- Bearish (20% probability): External shocks push energy prices higher, reigniting inflation pressures and forcing a rate hike of 25bps by late Q1 2026.
Risks and opportunities
Downside risks include renewed geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions that could elevate inflation. Upside opportunities stem from fiscal stimulus effectiveness and global demand recovery, which could bolster growth without inflationary spikes.
Norges Bank’s decision to maintain the policy rate at 4.00% in November 2025 reflects a calibrated approach amid easing inflation and steady economic growth. The bank’s cautious stance balances the need to anchor inflation expectations while supporting a resilient labor market and domestic demand. External uncertainties, particularly in energy markets and geopolitics, remain key variables shaping the monetary policy path.
Investors and policymakers should monitor upcoming inflation prints, wage growth, and global energy developments closely. Norges Bank’s next moves will likely hinge on these indicators, with a bias toward patience unless inflation deviates significantly from target.
Key Markets Likely to React to Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision
The Norges Bank interest rate decision typically influences Norwegian financial markets and related global assets. Key markets to watch include the Norwegian krone (NOK), Norwegian government bonds, and energy-linked equities. Additionally, currency pairs involving NOK and major currencies often reflect shifts in monetary policy expectations.
- NOKUSD – Tracks the Norwegian krone against the US dollar, sensitive to Norges Bank rate changes and global risk sentiment.
- EURNOK – Euro to Norwegian krone pair, often volatile around Norges Bank announcements.
- OBX.OL – Norway’s benchmark equity index, influenced by monetary policy and energy sector performance.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s USD pair, often reacts to global risk appetite shifts tied to monetary policy.
- NEL.OL – Norwegian hydrogen energy stock, sensitive to fiscal and energy policy outlooks.
Since 2020, the Norges Bank policy rate has shown a strong positive correlation with NOKUSD exchange rate movements. Rate hikes from 2021 to mid-2024 coincided with NOK strengthening against the USD, while cuts in 2025 have seen modest depreciation. This relationship underscores the central bank’s influence on currency valuation and capital flows.
FAQ
- What was the Norges Bank interest rate decision for November 2025?
- The policy rate was held steady at 4.00%, unchanged from October 2025.
- How does the November 2025 decision compare to previous months?
- The rate has been stable since September 2025 after a series of cuts from 4.50% in mid-2025.
- What are the main risks facing Norges Bank’s monetary policy?
- Key risks include geopolitical tensions affecting energy prices and inflation, as well as domestic demand fluctuations.
Takeaway: Norges Bank’s steady 4.00% rate signals a balanced approach amid easing inflation and external uncertainties, with a cautious eye on future risks.
Updated 12/18/25
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The Norges Bank policy rate held steady at 4.00% in November 2025, unchanged from October and down from 4.50% in June 2025. This pause follows a gradual easing cycle that began mid-year, reflecting a response to moderating inflation and slowing domestic demand.
Comparing the current rate to the 12-month average of 4.25%, the bank’s stance has shifted from restrictive to a more neutral position. Inflation trends and GDP growth data support this cautious approach.