Norway Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision — | Sigmanomics
Norway Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision
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4
Actual
4
Consensus
4
Previous
Norway’s Norges Bank held its interest rate steady at 4.00% in March, matching February’s level and extending a pause that began in September 2025. The rate remains 0.25 percentage points below the 12-month average of 4.25%, reflecting a cautious stance amid persistent inflation and moderate growth. Market pricing signals confidence in continued stability through the summer, with investors focused on inflation and wage data. Updated 3/26/26
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Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision - NO
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Norges Bank held its policy rate steady at 4.00% for March, matching February’s level and extending a pause that began in September 2025. The rate remains 0.25 percentage points below the 12-month average, signaling a continued wait-and-see stance amid persistent inflation pressures and moderate economic growth.
Norges Bank Holds Interest Rate at 4.00% in March Decision
The Norwegian central bank maintained its key policy rate at 4.00% for March 2026, unchanged from February and December. This marks the seventh consecutive month at or below this level, as policymakers balance inflation containment with economic stability.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
Inflation persistence: Core CPI above 3.5% YoY
Stable NOK exchange rate
Moderate wage growth
Policy pulse
Norges Bank’s 4.00% policy rate for March matches February’s reading and remains below the 12-month average of 4.25%. The central bank’s inflation target is 2.0%, with headline inflation still running above target.
Market lens
Norwegian government bond yields were little changed after the decision, reflecting market consensus on a prolonged pause. The krone traded in a narrow range against the euro, with investors awaiting further signals on the timing of any future rate adjustments. Market participants continue to monitor wage settlements and global commodity prices for clues on the policy path.
Foundational Indicators
Drivers this month
Headline CPI: 3.7% YoY in February
Unemployment: 3.5% in February
GDP growth: 0.2% QoQ in Q4 2025
Policy pulse
The policy rate remains 0.5 percentage points below its December 2024 peak of 4.5%. Norges Bank continues to weigh above-target inflation against subdued economic momentum.
Market lens
Swap rates and short-term NOK funding costs remained stable after the announcement. The lack of surprise in the decision kept volatility muted, with forward rate agreements pricing in no immediate change. Investors are watching for shifts in inflation expectations and labor market data.
Chart Dynamics
The March print of 4.00% matches February’s level and is 0.25 percentage points below the 12-month average of 4.25%. Since the September 2025 cut, the rate has held steady, following a series of reductions from the 4.5% peak in December 2024 through mid-2025. Over the past six months, the rate has declined by 0.25 percentage points, reflecting a cautious easing cycle.
Compared to March 2025’s 4.5%, the current rate is 0.5 percentage points lower. The last upward move was in December 2024, after which the central bank shifted to a holding pattern.
Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision trend (Dec 2024–Mar 2026)
What This Chart Tells Us: The policy rate’s steady decline from late 2024 through mid-2025, followed by a prolonged plateau, highlights Norges Bank’s cautious approach. The central bank is signaling patience, holding rates at a restrictive level to anchor inflation expectations while monitoring for signs of economic slack or renewed price pressures.
Forward Outlook
Scenario probabilities
Bullish (rate cut by June): 20–30%
Base case (unchanged through Q2): 55–65%
Bearish (rate hike): 5–10%
Policy pulse
The rate remains above the pre-2022 average but below last year’s peak. Norges Bank’s forward guidance emphasizes data dependence, with inflation and wage growth as key triggers for any shift.
Market lens
Interest rate futures imply a high probability of stability into the summer. Market pricing reflects confidence in the central bank’s commitment to its inflation mandate, with little expectation of near-term easing unless growth falters or inflation moderates sharply.
Data source: Norges Bank official releases, Sigmanomics database. Methodology: policy rate as set by Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee, measured at scheduled decision dates.
Closing Thoughts
Risks and opportunities
Upside: Faster inflation moderation could open the door to rate cuts.
Downside: Persistent wage pressures or NOK depreciation may delay easing.
Neutral: Global central bank actions and commodity prices remain key external variables.
Market lens
Norwegian assets remain anchored by policy clarity and robust fundamentals. The central bank’s steady hand supports financial stability, but investors remain alert to shifts in inflation and growth dynamics.
Key Markets Reacting to Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision
Norges Bank’s steady rate decision reverberated across currency, equity, and crypto markets. The Norwegian krone’s stability and the central bank’s data-driven stance influenced both domestic and international investors. Below are select tradable symbols with direct or indirect exposure to Norwegian monetary policy.
EURNOK – The euro/krone pair is highly sensitive to Norwegian rate moves and inflation trends.
AAPL – Apple’s global supply chain and sales can be influenced by Nordic consumer demand and currency swings.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s performance often reflects broader risk sentiment tied to central bank policy shifts.
Month
Policy Rate (%)
EURNOK Change (%)
Dec 2024
4.5
-0.8
Jun 2025
4.25
+1.2
Mar 2026
4.00
+0.3
Since 2020, EURNOK has shown a positive correlation with Norges Bank’s policy rate moves, with the krone tending to weaken modestly following rate cuts.
FAQ: Norges Bank Holds Interest Rate at 4.00% in March Decision
What is the current Norges Bank policy rate?
The policy rate stands at 4.00% for March 2026, unchanged from February and December 2025.
Why did Norges Bank keep the rate steady this month?
Persistent inflation above target and moderate economic growth led policymakers to maintain the rate at 4.00%.
How does this decision affect Norwegian markets?
Stable rates support financial market confidence, with limited immediate impact on the krone or government bond yields.
Norges Bank’s steady hand signals a cautious, data-driven approach as inflation and growth remain finely balanced.
Updated 3/26/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
[1] Norges Bank official releases, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee statements, March 2026.
[2] Sigmanomics database, Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision historical data, 2024–2026.
[3] Statistics Norway, CPI and labor market data, February 2026.
Economic Calendar - NO Events
Monday, March 23, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
NO
Loan Growth YoY
4.6
4.5
4.2
4.45
Low
Tuesday, March 17, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
NO
Balance of Trade
-
75.9
65.4
61.70
Low
Monday, March 16, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
NO
Balance of Trade
44.8
75.8
65.4
61.70
Low
Tuesday, March 10, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
NO
Producer Price Index YoY
-
-7.8
-4.4
-3.05
Low
Friday, March 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
NO
Manufacturing Production MoM
-0.3
-0.2
0.2
0.62
Low
Thursday, March 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
NO
Current Account
-
174.5
120
136.55
Low
Wednesday, March 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
NO
House Price Index MoM
-0.3
0.6
0.6
0.38
Low
10:00
NO
House Price Index YoY
3
4.2
4
3.78
Low
07:00
NO
Current Account
153.1
177.4
120
136.55
Low
Friday, February 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
NO
Retail Sales MoM
1.1
-0.6
0.4
0.52
Low
07:00
NO
Registered Jobless Rate
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.32
Low
07:00
NO
Unemployment Rate
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.28
Low
Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
NO
Unemployment Rate
4.6
4.3
4.3
4.38
Low
05:30
NO
Consumer Confidence
-
-3.7
2
-3.70
Low
Tuesday, February 24, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:30
NO
Consumer Confidence
-9.4
-4.7
2
-3.70
Low
Monday, February 16, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
NO
Balance of Trade
75.9
42.9
36
32.30
Low
Wednesday, February 11, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
NO
GDP Growth Mainland QoQ
-
0.1
0.3
0.35
Low
07:00
NO
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-
1.1
0.2
0.20
Low
07:00
NO
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-
2.1
1.7
1.95
Low
Tuesday, February 10, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
NO
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.1
0
0.15
Low
07:00
NO
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
3.1
3
3.15
Low
07:00
NO
Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
0.1
0.1
0.30
Low
07:00
NO
Inflation Rate YoY
3.6
3.2
3.1
3.30
Low
07:00
NO
CPI
3.4
3.1
3
3.15
Low
Monday, February 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
NO
Producer Price Index YoY
-7.8
-11.4
-16
-14.65
Low
07:00
NO
GDP Growth Mainland QoQ
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.35
Low
07:00
NO
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.2
2.1
1.7
1.95
Low
Friday, February 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
NO
Manufacturing Production MoM
-0.1
2
-1.2
-0.78
Low
Wednesday, February 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
NO
House Price Index MoM
0.6
0
0.3
0.08
Low
10:00
NO
House Price Index YoY
4.2
5
4.1
3.88
Low
Friday, January 30, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
NO
Registered Jobless Rate
2.3
2.1
2.1
2.13
Low
07:00
NO
Retail Sales MoM
-0.7
1.2
0.2
0.32
Low
07:00
NO
Unemployment Rate
2.3
2.1
2.1
2.18
Low
Thursday, January 29, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
NO
Loan Growth YoY
4.4
3.9
3.8
4.05
Low
Thursday, January 22, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
NO
Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision
-
4
4
4.00
Medium
07:00
NO
Unemployment Rate
-
4.5
4.5
4.58
Low
Thursday, January 15, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
NO
Balance of Trade
42.9
41.3
84.4
80.70
Low
07:00
NO
Industrial Confidence
2.6
0.2
1
1.80
Low
Friday, January 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
NO
Producer Price Index YoY
-11.4
-9
-8.6
-7.25
Low
07:00
NO
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
-0.3
-0.2
-0.05
Low
07:00
NO
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.1
3
2.9
3.05
Low
07:00
NO
Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
3
2.9
3.10
Low
07:00
NO
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.1
-0.2
0.00
Low
07:00
NO
CPI
3.2
3
3
3.15
Low
Thursday, January 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
NO
Manufacturing Production MoM
2.4
-1.3
0.5
0.92
Low
Tuesday, January 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
NO
House Price Index MoM
0
0.7
0.7
0.48
Low
Monday, December 29, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
NO
Retail Sales MoM
1.3
0.1
0.4
0.52
Low
Sunday, January 1, 2023
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
NORNOR
Lending interest rate (%)
5.3083333333333
5.3083333333333
5.3083333333333
5.31
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
47.198478494099
47.198478494099
47.198478494099
47.20
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
5.5178498710466
5.5178498710466
5.5178498710466
5.52
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
GDP (current US$)
485513316503.63
485513316503.63
485513316503.63
485513316503.63
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate)
3.573
3.573
3.573
3.57
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
GDP growth (annual %)
0.51411822659534
0.51411822659534
0.51411822659534
0.51
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
32.467453428265
32.467453428265
32.467453428265
32.47
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Real interest rate (%)
17.811068902776
17.811068902776
17.811068902776
17.81
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Unemployment with advanced education (% of total labor force with advanced education)
2.152
2.152
2.152
2.15
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Current account balance (% of GDP)
17.442472670532
17.442472670532
17.442472670532
17.44
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Consumer price index (2010 = 100)
140.68410098634
140.68410098634
140.68410098634
140.68
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Population, total
5519594
5519594
5519594
5519594.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Labor force, total
3006715
3006715
3006715
3006715.00
Medium
Saturday, January 1, 2022
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
NORNOR
Labor force, total
2978362
2978362
2978362
2978362.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Lending interest rate (%)
3.2433333333333
3.2433333333333
3.2433333333333
3.24
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
5.7641231785227
5.7641231785227
5.7641231785227
5.76
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
55.4600670265
55.4600670265
55.4600670265
55.46
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
New businesses registered (number)
32439
32439
32439
32439.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
GDP (current US$)
593726965415.62
593726965415.62
593726965415.62
593726965415.62
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate)
3.231
3.231
3.231
3.23
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
GDP growth (annual %)
3.005635160763
3.005635160763
3.005635160763
3.01
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
27.145119556287
27.145119556287
27.145119556287
27.15
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Real interest rate (%)
-19.442990273966
-19.442990273966
-19.442990273966
-19.44
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Unemployment with advanced education (% of total labor force with advanced education)
1.872
1.872
1.872
1.87
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Current account balance (% of GDP)
29.836771233816
29.836771233816
29.836771233816
29.84
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Consumer price index (2010 = 100)
133.32730069677
133.32730069677
133.32730069677
133.33
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Population, total
5457127
5457127
5457127
5457127.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
1.41
1.41
1.41
1.41
Medium
Friday, January 1, 2021
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
NORNOR
Labor force, total
2965199
2965199
2965199
2965199.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Lending interest rate (%)
2.2741666666667
2.2741666666667
2.2741666666667
2.27
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
3.4838805526668
3.4838805526668
3.4838805526668
3.48
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
43.036301920637
43.036301920637
43.036301920637
43.04
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
New businesses registered (number)
37380
37380
37380
37380.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Physicians (per 1,000 people)
5.168
5.168
5.168
5.17
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
GDP (current US$)
503367986030.27
503367986030.27
503367986030.27
503367986030.27
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate)
4.359
4.359
4.359
4.36
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
GDP growth (annual %)
3.9086867768942
3.9086867768942
3.9086867768942
3.91
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
28.186411855323
28.186411855323
28.186411855323
28.19
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Real interest rate (%)
-14.922876778122
-14.922876778122
-14.922876778122
-14.92
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Unemployment with advanced education (% of total labor force with advanced education)
2.635
2.635
2.635
2.63
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Current account balance (% of GDP)
13.162076752109
13.162076752109
13.162076752109
13.16
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Population, total
5408320
5408320
5408320
5408320.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Consumer price index (2010 = 100)
126.06098995566
126.06098995566
126.06098995566
126.06
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
1.55
1.55
1.55
1.55
Medium
Wednesday, January 1, 2020
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
NORNOR
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
1.48
1.48
1.48
1.48
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Armed forces personnel, total
25000
25000
25000
25000.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Labor force, total
2832052
2832052
2832052
2832052.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Lending interest rate (%)
2.6975
2.6975
2.6975
2.70
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Hospital beds (per 1,000 people)
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.40
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
1.28658490708
1.28658490708
1.28658490708
1.29
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
32.210337779768
32.210337779768
32.210337779768
32.21
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
New businesses registered (number)
33130
33130
33130
33130.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Physicians (per 1,000 people)
5.086
5.086
5.086
5.09
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
GDP (current US$)
367633418886.63
367633418886.63
367633418886.63
367633418886.63
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Human Capital Index (HCI) (scale 0-1)
0.77105116844177
0.77105116844177
0.77105116844177
0.77
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate)
4.424
4.424
4.424
4.42
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
GDP growth (annual %)
-1.2781717845226
-1.2781717845226
-1.2781717845226
-1.28
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
33.143641261564
33.143641261564
33.143641261564
33.14
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Real interest rate (%)
5.3494194173486
5.3494194173486
5.3494194173486
5.35
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Unemployment with advanced education (% of total labor force with advanced education)
2.575
2.575
2.575
2.58
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Current account balance (% of GDP)
1.1455729289112
1.1455729289112
1.1455729289112
1.15
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Population, total
5379475
5379475
5379475
5379475.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Consumer price index (2010 = 100)
121.81703013302
121.81703013302
121.81703013302
121.82
Medium
Tuesday, January 1, 2019
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
NORNOR
Population, total
5347896
5347896
5347896
5347896.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Consumer price index (2010 = 100)
120.2696588544
120.2696588544
120.2696588544
120.27
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
1.53
1.53
1.53
1.53
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Armed forces personnel, total
23000
23000
23000
23000.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Time required to build a warehouse (days)
109.5
109.5
109.5
109.50
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Time required to start a business (days)
4
4
4
4.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Labor force, total
2825250
2825250
2825250
2825250.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Lending interest rate (%)
3.2358333333333
3.2358333333333
3.2358333333333
3.24
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Hospital beds (per 1,000 people)
3.47
3.47
3.47
3.47
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
2.167730033054
2.167730033054
2.167730033054
2.17
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
36.640925320627
36.640925320627
36.640925320627
36.64
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
New businesses registered (number)
30264
30264
30264
30264.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Physicians (per 1,000 people)
4.968
4.968
4.968
4.97
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
GDP (current US$)
408742840909.09
408742840909.09
408742840909.09
408742840909.09
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate)
3.684
3.684
3.684
3.68
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
GDP growth (annual %)
1.123777874368
1.123777874368
1.123777874368
1.12
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
34.254895206672
34.254895206672
34.254895206672
34.25
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Real interest rate (%)
3.8051708714328
3.8051708714328
3.8051708714328
3.81
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Unemployment with advanced education (% of total labor force with advanced education)
2.124
2.124
2.124
2.12
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Current account balance (% of GDP)
2.9160085988918
2.9160085988918
2.9160085988918
2.92
Medium
Monday, January 1, 2018
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
NORNOR
Unemployment with advanced education (% of total labor force with advanced education)
2.186
2.186
2.186
2.19
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Current account balance (% of GDP)
7.9495943163682
7.9495943163682
7.9495943163682
7.95
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Population, total
5311916
5311916
5311916
5311916.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Consumer price index (2010 = 100)
117.71785358791
117.71785358791
117.71785358791
117.72
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
1.56
1.56
1.56
1.56
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Armed forces personnel, total
23250
23250
23250
23250.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Time required to build a warehouse (days)
109.5
109.5
109.5
109.50
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Time required to start a business (days)
4
4
4
4.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Labor force, total
2796124
2796124
2796124
2796124.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Primary government expenditures as a proportion of original approved budget (%)
99.2594
99.2594
99.2594
99.26
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Lending interest rate (%)
2.9258333333333
2.9258333333333
2.9258333333333
2.93
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Hospital beds (per 1,000 people)
3.53
3.53
3.53
3.53
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
2.7648313452879
2.7648313452879
2.7648313452879
2.76
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
38.221027288352
38.221027288352
38.221027288352
38.22
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
New businesses registered (number)
29963
29963
29963
29963.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Physicians (per 1,000 people)
4.857
4.857
4.857
4.86
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
GDP (current US$)
439788625883.8
439788625883.8
439788625883.8
439788625883.80
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Human Capital Index (HCI) (scale 0-1)
0.76853483915329
0.76853483915329
0.76853483915329
0.77
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate)
3.801
3.801
3.801
3.80
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
GDP growth (annual %)
0.82890066413759
0.82890066413759
0.82890066413759
0.83
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
31.782168501147
31.782168501147
31.782168501147
31.78
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Real interest rate (%)
-3.5759960301897
-3.5759960301897
-3.5759960301897
-3.58
Medium
Sunday, January 1, 2017
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
NORNOR
Unemployment with advanced education (% of total labor force with advanced education)
2.525
2.525
2.525
2.52
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Current account balance (% of GDP)
5.3889656631833
5.3889656631833
5.3889656631833
5.39
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Population, total
5276968
5276968
5276968
5276968.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Consumer price index (2010 = 100)
114.55071939191
114.55071939191
114.55071939191
114.55
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
1.62
1.62
1.62
1.62
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Time required to build a warehouse (days)
109.5
109.5
109.5
109.50
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Armed forces personnel, total
23000
23000
23000
23000.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Time required to start a business (days)
4
4
4
4.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Labor force, total
2760888
2760888
2760888
2760888.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Primary government expenditures as a proportion of original approved budget (%)
98.3915
98.3915
98.3915
98.39
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Lending interest rate (%)
3.0058333333333
3.0058333333333
3.0058333333333
3.01
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Hospital beds (per 1,000 people)
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.60
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
1.8751005955255
1.8751005955255
1.8751005955255
1.88
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
36.732264994495
36.732264994495
36.732264994495
36.73
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
New businesses registered (number)
29892
29892
29892
29892.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Physicians (per 1,000 people)
4.735
4.735
4.735
4.74
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
GDP (current US$)
401745275035.26
401745275035.26
401745275035.26
401745275035.26
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Human Capital Index (HCI) (scale 0-1)
0.771
0.771
0.771
0.77
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate)
4.164
4.164
4.164
4.16
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
GDP growth (annual %)
2.4637462851015
2.4637462851015
2.4637462851015
2.46
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
32.376516767611
32.376516767611
32.376516767611
32.38
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Real interest rate (%)
-1.032961377371
-1.032961377371
-1.032961377371
-1.03
Medium
Friday, January 1, 2016
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
NORNOR
Unemployment with advanced education (% of total labor force with advanced education)
2.872
2.872
2.872
2.87
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Current account balance (% of GDP)
3.9804952365033
3.9804952365033
3.9804952365033
3.98
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Consumer price index (2010 = 100)
112.44231291286
112.44231291286
112.44231291286
112.44
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Population, total
5234519
5234519
5234519
5234519.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
1.71
1.71
1.71
1.71
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Time required to build a warehouse (days)
109.5
109.5
109.5
109.50
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Armed forces personnel, total
23950
23950
23950
23950.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Time required to start a business (days)
4
4
4
4.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Labor force, total
2769690
2769690
2769690
2769690.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Primary government expenditures as a proportion of original approved budget (%)
99.1009
99.1009
99.1009
99.10
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Lending interest rate (%)
3.07
3.07
3.07
3.07
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Hospital beds (per 1,000 people)
3.68
3.68
3.68
3.68
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
3.55
3.55
3.55
3.55
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
35.938171426188
35.938171426188
35.938171426188
35.94
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
New businesses registered (number)
27920
27920
27920
27920.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Physicians (per 1,000 people)
4.581
4.581
4.581
4.58
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
GDP (current US$)
370956547619.05
370956547619.05
370956547619.05
370956547619.05
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate)
4.68
4.68
4.68
4.68
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
GDP growth (annual %)
1.1647242349728
1.1647242349728
1.1647242349728
1.16
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
33.178670971282
33.178670971282
33.178670971282
33.18
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Real interest rate (%)
4.7439094458182
4.7439094458182
4.7439094458182
4.74
Medium
Thursday, January 1, 2015
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
NORNOR
Real interest rate (%)
6.4863764824176
6.4863764824176
6.4863764824176
6.49
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Unemployment with advanced education (% of total labor force with advanced education)
2.58
2.58
2.58
2.58
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Current account balance (% of GDP)
8.0136070886241
8.0136070886241
8.0136070886241
8.01
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Consumer price index (2010 = 100)
108.58745814858
108.58745814858
108.58745814858
108.59
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Population, total
5188607
5188607
5188607
5188607.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
1.72
1.72
1.72
1.72
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Time required to build a warehouse (days)
109.5
109.5
109.5
109.50
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Armed forces personnel, total
24950
24950
24950
24950.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Time required to start a business (days)
4
4
4
4.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Labor force, total
2762043
2762043
2762043
2762043.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Primary government expenditures as a proportion of original approved budget (%)
99.391
99.391
99.391
99.39
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Lending interest rate (%)
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.50
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Hospital beds (per 1,000 people)
3.76
3.76
3.76
3.76
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
2.1711366538953
2.1711366538953
2.1711366538953
2.17
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
38.575188734972
38.575188734972
38.575188734972
38.58
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
New businesses registered (number)
26709
26709
26709
26709.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Physicians (per 1,000 people)
4.451
4.451
4.451
4.45
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
GDP (current US$)
388159512245.53
388159512245.53
388159512245.53
388159512245.53
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate)
4.296
4.296
4.296
4.30
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
GDP growth (annual %)
1.857339726433
1.857339726433
1.857339726433
1.86
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
31.856667805045
31.856667805045
31.856667805045
31.86
Medium
Wednesday, January 1, 2014
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
NORNOR
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
29.409705178356
29.409705178356
29.409705178356
29.41
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Real interest rate (%)
3.9431473727732
3.9431473727732
3.9431473727732
3.94
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Unemployment with advanced education (% of total labor force with advanced education)
2.185
2.185
2.185
2.19
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Current account balance (% of GDP)
10.954886718139
10.954886718139
10.954886718139
10.95
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Consumer price index (2010 = 100)
106.27997466293
106.27997466293
106.27997466293
106.28
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Population, total
5137232
5137232
5137232
5137232.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
1.75
1.75
1.75
1.75
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Time required to build a warehouse (days)
109.5
109.5
109.5
109.50
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Armed forces personnel, total
25800
25800
25800
25800.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Time required to start a business (days)
5
5
5
5.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Labor force, total
2724249
2724249
2724249
2724249.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Lending interest rate (%)
4.2116666666667
4.2116666666667
4.2116666666667
4.21
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Primary government expenditures as a proportion of original approved budget (%)
100.9582
100.9582
100.9582
100.96
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Hospital beds (per 1,000 people)
3.84
3.84
3.84
3.84
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Physicians (per 1,000 people)
4.429
4.429
4.429
4.43
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
2.0417028670721
2.0417028670721
2.0417028670721
2.04
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
39.727672042548
39.727672042548
39.727672042548
39.73
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
New businesses registered (number)
25888
25888
25888
25888.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
GDP (current US$)
501736471832.85
501736471832.85
501736471832.85
501736471832.85
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate)
3.486
3.486
3.486
3.49
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
GDP growth (annual %)
2.0481319985508
2.0481319985508
2.0481319985508
2.05
Medium
Tuesday, January 1, 2013
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
NORNOR
GDP growth (annual %)
1.0161908240927
1.0161908240927
1.0161908240927
1.02
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
28.11148305928
28.11148305928
28.11148305928
28.11
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Real interest rate (%)
1.7520276313405
1.7520276313405
1.7520276313405
1.75
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Primary government expenditures as a proportion of original approved budget (%)
99.7937
99.7937
99.7937
99.79
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Current account balance (% of GDP)
10.161276861956
10.161276861956
10.161276861956
10.16
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Unemployment with advanced education (% of total labor force with advanced education)
2.08
2.08
2.08
2.08
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Consumer price index (2010 = 100)
104.15347027418
104.15347027418
104.15347027418
104.15
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Population, total
5079623
5079623
5079623
5079623.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
1.78
1.78
1.78
1.78
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Time required to build a warehouse (days)
109.5
109.5
109.5
109.50
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Armed forces personnel, total
25800
25800
25800
25800.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Time required to start a business (days)
6
6
6
6.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Labor force, total
2699925
2699925
2699925
2699925.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Lending interest rate (%)
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Hospital beds (per 1,000 people)
3.86
3.86
3.86
3.86
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Physicians (per 1,000 people)
4.305
4.305
4.305
4.30
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
2.1204862035311
2.1204862035311
2.1204862035311
2.12
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
39.861309534403
39.861309534403
39.861309534403
39.86
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
New businesses registered (number)
26297
26297
26297
26297.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
GDP (current US$)
526014468085.11
526014468085.11
526014468085.11
526014468085.11
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate)
3.425
3.425
3.425
3.42
Medium
Sunday, January 1, 2012
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
NORNOR
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate)
3.129
3.129
3.129
3.13
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
GDP growth (annual %)
2.7179592667898
2.7179592667898
2.7179592667898
2.72
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
27.211487984574
27.211487984574
27.211487984574
27.21
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Primary government expenditures as a proportion of original approved budget (%)
99.0149
99.0149
99.0149
99.01
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Current account balance (% of GDP)
12.402140024981
12.402140024981
12.402140024981
12.40
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Unemployment with advanced education (% of total labor force with advanced education)
1.702
1.702
1.702
1.70
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Consumer price index (2010 = 100)
101.99077006606
101.99077006606
101.99077006606
101.99
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Population, total
5018573
5018573
5018573
5018573.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
1.85
1.85
1.85
1.85
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Time required to build a warehouse (days)
109.5
109.5
109.5
109.50
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Armed forces personnel, total
25800
25800
25800
25800.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Time required to start a business (days)
6
6
6
6.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Labor force, total
2673471
2673471
2673471
2673471.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Hospital beds (per 1,000 people)
3.97
3.97
3.97
3.97
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
New businesses registered (number)
25615
25615
25615
25615.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Physicians (per 1,000 people)
4.231
4.231
4.231
4.23
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
0.69686411149836
0.69686411149836
0.69686411149836
0.70
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
41.287064854402
41.287064854402
41.287064854402
41.29
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
GDP (current US$)
512777309841
512777309841
512777309841
512777309841.00
Medium
Saturday, January 1, 2011
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
NORNOR
GDP (current US$)
501360549669.4
501360549669.4
501360549669.4
501360549669.40
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate)
3.196
3.196
3.196
3.20
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
GDP growth (annual %)
1.1056560273373
1.1056560273373
1.1056560273373
1.11
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
27.937467459142
27.937467459142
27.937467459142
27.94
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Armed forces personnel, total
24450
24450
24450
24450.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Primary government expenditures as a proportion of original approved budget (%)
99.165
99.165
99.165
99.17
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Unemployment with advanced education (% of total labor force with advanced education)
1.425
1.425
1.425
1.43
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Current account balance (% of GDP)
13.254644393537
13.254644393537
13.254644393537
13.25
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Consumer price index (2010 = 100)
101.28495158809
101.28495158809
101.28495158809
101.28
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Population, total
4953088
4953088
4953088
4953088.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
1.88
1.88
1.88
1.88
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Time required to build a warehouse (days)
235.5
235.5
235.5
235.50
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Time required to start a business (days)
6
6
6
6.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Labor force, total
2626989
2626989
2626989
2626989.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Hospital beds (per 1,000 people)
4.19
4.19
4.19
4.19
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
New businesses registered (number)
16250
16250
16250
16250.00
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Physicians (per 1,000 people)
4.188
4.188
4.188
4.19
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
1.2849515880915
1.2849515880915
1.2849515880915
1.28
Medium
00:00
NORNOR
Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
41.661266174341
41.661266174341
41.661266174341
41.66
Medium
Friday, January 1, 2010
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
NORNOR
New businesses registered (number)
13956
13956
13956
13956.00
Medium
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Norges Bank Holds Interest Rate at 4.00 Percent in March The Norges Bank policy rate is the key interest rate guiding borrowing costs and monetary policy in Norway. For March 2026, the rate remained steady at 4.00%, unchanged from February and December levels. This represents no change from the previous month and continues a pause that began in September 2025. The decision reflects ongoing efforts to balance persistent inflation pressures, which remain above the 2.00% target, with moderate economic growth. Market reaction was muted, with government bond yields and the Norwegian krone showing little movement. Analysts from DNB Markets noted, “The central bank’s steady stance signals patience amid inflation that is cooling but still elevated.” Norges Bank’s cautious approach suggests it will closely monitor upcoming inflation and wage data before adjusting rates further.
Compared to March 2025’s 4.5%, the current rate is 0.5 percentage points lower. The last upward move was in December 2024, after which the central bank shifted to a holding pattern.