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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
NorwayNorway Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision held to 4.25% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Norway Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision held to 4.25% in June 2026. The reading matched the 4.25% consensus. Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision is now the highest in 12 months.
Latest Release
4.25
Actual
4.25
Consensus
4.25
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 4.25
Actual: 4.25
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision (Norway) was reported at 4.25% in June 2026. This matched the market consensus of 4.25% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.08%, ranging from 4% to 4.25% across 6 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.08%, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.12%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.08%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision has averaged 4.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Aug 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision - NO
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About Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision — Norway
DEFINITION
The Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the monetary policy decisions made by the central bank of Norway, Norges Bank. This decision, which is announced periodically, has a significant impact on the country's economy and financial markets. It serves as a crucial tool for investors, businesses, and individuals to understand the current and future state of the Norwegian economy and make informed financial decisions. The Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision is closely monitored by analysts and economists, making it an important factor in shaping market expectations and influencing investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 4.25 %, consensus 4.25 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 4.25 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - NO Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | NO | Unemployed Persons | 62.1 | 61.7 | 61.6 | 61.85 | Low |
| 06:00 | NO | Loan Growth YoY | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.45 | Low |
| 06:00 | NO | Registered Jobless Rate | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.10 | Low |
| 06:00 | NO | Unemployment Rate n.s.a | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.10 | Low |