Romania's Inflation Rate YoY for December 2025: A Slight Cooling Amid Persistent Price Pressures
Key Takeaways: Romania’s inflation rate for December 2025 eased marginally to 9.70% YoY from November’s 9.80%, signaling a tentative slowdown in price growth. Despite this dip, inflation remains elevated compared to the 12-month average of 7.70%. Core macro indicators and monetary policy suggest cautious optimism, but external shocks and fiscal dynamics keep risks tilted to the upside.
Table of Contents
Romania’s inflation rate for December 2025 registered at 9.70% year-over-year, a slight decline from November’s 9.80% as reported by the Sigmanomics database. This marks the first monthly dip after a sustained period of near 10% inflation since September 2025. The 12-month average inflation rate stands at approximately 7.70%, underscoring persistent price pressures well above the National Bank of Romania’s (NBR) target range of 2.50% ±1 percentage point.
Drivers This Month
- Energy prices stabilized after sharp spikes in Q3 and Q4 2025.
- Food inflation remained elevated but showed signs of moderation.
- Core inflation components, including services and housing, continued to exert upward pressure.
Policy Pulse
The NBR’s monetary stance remains restrictive, with key policy rates held steady at 7.50% since November 2025. The slight easing in headline inflation may provide some room for a pause in rate hikes, but the central bank signals vigilance given ongoing inflationary risks.
Market Lens
Immediate reaction: The Romanian leu (RON) appreciated modestly against the euro following the print, reflecting relief over the inflation slowdown. Short-term government bond yields declined by 5 basis points, signaling reduced inflation risk premia.
The inflation reading for December 2025 at 9.70% YoY compares to 9.80% in November and a peak of 9.90% in both September and October 2025. Earlier months in 2025 showed a steady rise from 5.00% in March to 7.80% in August, reflecting the impact of energy price shocks and supply chain disruptions. The year-over-year inflation remains nearly double the average seen in early 2025, indicating entrenched inflationary pressures.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The National Bank of Romania has maintained a hawkish stance since mid-2025, raising the policy rate from 4.00% in March to 7.50% by November. Liquidity conditions have tightened, with credit growth slowing to 4.20% YoY in December from 5.10% in October. Inflation expectations remain elevated but show tentative signs of anchoring near 6% for the medium term.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains expansionary, with the government running a deficit of 4.50% of GDP in Q4 2025, partly driven by social support measures to offset energy costs. This fiscal stance adds complexity to the inflation outlook, as demand-side pressures persist despite monetary tightening.
What This Chart Tells Us
The inflation trend is tentatively reversing its upward trajectory, suggesting that monetary policy and external factors are beginning to temper price growth. However, the pace of decline is slow, indicating persistent structural inflationary pressures in Romania’s economy.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Energy market volatility linked to Eastern European geopolitical tensions continues to pose upside risks. Supply chain disruptions from regional conflicts and global commodity price fluctuations remain key uncertainties for inflation dynamics.
Looking ahead, Romania’s inflation trajectory will hinge on several factors:
Bullish Scenario (20% Probability)
- Energy prices decline sharply due to easing geopolitical tensions.
- Supply chains normalize, reducing cost-push inflation.
- Monetary policy anchors inflation expectations below 5% by mid-2026.
Base Scenario (60% Probability)
- Inflation gradually declines to 7% by Q3 2026.
- Monetary policy remains steady, balancing growth and inflation risks.
- Fiscal deficits narrow modestly, reducing demand-side pressures.
Bearish Scenario (20% Probability)
- Energy prices spike again due to renewed geopolitical conflict.
- Fiscal stimulus intensifies, fueling demand-pull inflation.
- Inflation expectations de-anchor, pushing rates above 10% YoY.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Romania faces structural inflation challenges including wage growth outpacing productivity and persistent supply bottlenecks. Demographic shifts and EU integration efforts may moderate inflationary pressures over the medium term, but near-term risks remain elevated.
Romania’s December 2025 inflation rate of 9.70% YoY signals a tentative easing after months of near double-digit price growth. While this offers some relief, inflation remains well above target, requiring continued vigilance from policymakers. Monetary tightening has begun to show effects, but fiscal and external risks complicate the outlook. Market reactions suggest cautious optimism, yet structural inflation drivers warrant close monitoring.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate YoY
Romania’s inflation data typically influences currency, bond, and equity markets sensitive to inflation and monetary policy shifts. The Romanian leu (RON) often reacts to inflation surprises, as do local government bonds. Broader regional and commodity-linked assets also track inflation trends closely.
- EURRON – The euro/Romanian leu pair is sensitive to inflation-driven monetary policy changes.
- FP – Romania’s largest oil and gas company, impacted by inflation and energy prices.
- BRD – A major Romanian bank, sensitive to interest rate changes driven by inflation.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin often acts as an inflation hedge in emerging markets.
- USDRON – The US dollar/Romanian leu pair reacts to inflation and risk sentiment shifts.
Since 2020, spikes in Romania’s inflation rate have correlated with periods of RON depreciation against the euro. The December 2025 inflation print and subsequent RON appreciation illustrate the currency’s sensitivity to inflation moderation and monetary policy expectations.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the current inflation rate YoY for Romania?
- The inflation rate for December 2025 is 9.70% year-over-year, down slightly from 9.80% in November 2025.
- How does this inflation reading affect Romania’s monetary policy?
- The slight easing may allow the National Bank of Romania to pause rate hikes, but elevated inflation keeps the policy stance restrictive.
- What are the main risks to Romania’s inflation outlook?
- Energy price volatility, fiscal expansion, and geopolitical tensions pose upside risks, while supply normalization could ease inflation pressures.
Final Takeaway: Romania’s inflation shows early signs of cooling but remains stubbornly high, demanding a balanced policy approach amid external uncertainties.
Updated 1/14/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
December 2025 inflation at 9.70% YoY marks a 0.10 percentage point decline from November’s 9.80%, reversing a two-month plateau at 9.90% in September and October. The 12-month average inflation rate of 7.70% highlights the sustained elevated price environment throughout 2025.
Monthly inflation rates peaked in Q3 2025, driven by volatile energy prices and supply chain constraints. The recent moderation reflects easing energy costs and a stabilization of food prices, though core inflation remains sticky.