Romania’s inflation rate remains elevated at 9.80% YoY in November 2025, down marginally from 9.90% in October but still significantly above the 12-month average of 6.90%. This persistent inflationary pressure reflects ongoing supply-side constraints and robust domestic demand. The current rate is nearly double the 5.10% recorded in January 2025, underscoring a sharp acceleration over the past year.

Drivers this month

• Energy prices contributed approximately 0.35 percentage points (pp) to inflation, easing slightly from last month.
• Food inflation remained sticky, adding 0.28 pp, driven by supply chain disruptions and seasonal factors.
• Core inflation components, including services and housing, added 0.22 pp, reflecting wage pressures.

Policy pulse

The National Bank of Romania’s inflation target remains at 2.50% ±1 pp. The current 9.80% reading is nearly four times above target, sustaining pressure on monetary authorities to maintain a restrictive stance. The central bank’s key policy rate stands at 8.50%, unchanged since September, aiming to temper inflation without stalling growth.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Romanian leu (RON) depreciated 0.30% against the euro within the first hour post-release, reflecting market concerns over persistent inflation. Two-year government bond yields rose 12 basis points, signaling inflation risk premiums. Breakeven inflation rates edged up slightly, indicating market expectations of sustained inflation above target.

Romania’s inflation rate at 9.80% YoY contrasts sharply with the 5.10% recorded in January 2025 and the 4.85% low in May. The acceleration in mid-2025, peaking at 9.90% in September and October, reflects a combination of external shocks and domestic demand pressures. Core macroeconomic indicators provide context for this inflationary environment.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The National Bank of Romania has progressively tightened monetary policy since early 2025, raising the policy rate from 6.00% in January to 8.50% by September. Despite this, inflation remains sticky, suggesting lagged effects of monetary tightening. Credit growth slowed to 4.20% YoY in October, down from 6.50% in Q1 2025, indicating tighter financial conditions.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with the government running a deficit of 3.80% of GDP in Q3 2025. Increased social transfers and infrastructure spending have supported consumption but also contributed to demand-pull inflation. The budget deficit is projected to narrow slightly in 2026, contingent on revenue growth and expenditure control.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Global energy price volatility and supply chain disruptions continue to pressure inflation. Romania’s energy import dependency exposes it to external shocks, while geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe add uncertainty. The recent easing of some supply constraints may have contributed to the slight inflation dip in November.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: Following the print, the RON depreciated modestly, and two-year yields rose, reflecting market caution. Inflation-linked bonds saw increased demand, signaling expectations of sustained inflation above the central bank’s target.

Looking ahead, Romania’s inflation trajectory depends on several factors, including monetary policy effectiveness, fiscal discipline, and external developments. We outline three scenarios with associated probabilities:

Bullish scenario (25% probability)

• Global energy prices stabilize or decline further.
• Supply chain normalizes, easing food price pressures.
• Monetary tightening yields stronger demand moderation.
• Inflation falls below 7% by mid-2026.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Inflation remains elevated but gradually declines.
• Monetary policy stays restrictive but cautious.
• Fiscal policy tightens moderately to support disinflation.
• Inflation averages 8–9% through H1 2026, easing thereafter.

Bearish scenario (25% probability)

• Energy prices spike due to geopolitical tensions.
• Wage pressures intensify, fueling core inflation.
• Monetary policy lags, risking inflation expectations unanchoring.
• Inflation remains above 10% into late 2026.

Policy pulse

The National Bank of Romania is expected to maintain a cautious stance, balancing inflation control with growth risks. Further rate hikes are possible if inflation proves sticky, but the central bank may pause if signs of demand weakening emerge.

Romania’s inflation rate of 9.80% YoY in November 2025 reflects persistent inflationary pressures amid a complex macroeconomic environment. While the slight dip from October offers tentative relief, inflation remains well above target. Monetary and fiscal policies must remain coordinated to avoid entrenching inflation expectations. External risks, especially energy price volatility and geopolitical tensions, continue to cloud the outlook. Financial markets have priced in these risks, as seen in bond yields and currency movements. Structural reforms to improve supply chains and productivity will be critical for long-run inflation stability.

Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate YoY

Romania’s inflation data influences several key markets. The EURRON currency pair reacts to inflation surprises, reflecting shifts in monetary policy expectations. The FP stock, a major Romanian energy company, is sensitive to energy-driven inflation changes. The BRD bank’s shares track financial conditions affected by inflation. On the crypto side, BTCUSD often serves as an inflation hedge. Lastly, the USDRON pair also moves with inflation-driven risk sentiment.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current inflation rate YoY for Romania?

The latest inflation rate YoY for Romania is 9.80% as of November 2025, slightly down from 9.90% in October.

How does this inflation rate compare historically?

Inflation has nearly doubled since early 2025, rising from 5.10% in January to a peak of 9.90% in September and October.

What are the main factors driving inflation in Romania?

Key drivers include elevated energy and food prices, wage pressures, supply chain disruptions, and expansionary fiscal policy.

Key takeaway: Romania’s inflation remains stubbornly high, requiring sustained monetary and fiscal vigilance amid external uncertainties.