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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
RussiaRussia Producer Price Index YoY fell to 6.5% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Russia Producer Price Index YoY fell to 6.5% in August 2026, released September 2026, down 0.1% from July's 6.6% reading. The print exceeded the 4.5% consensus by 2.0%. Producer Price Index YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. The reading is in the 78th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
6.5
Actual
4.5
Consensus
6.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.73 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 2.8
Actual: 6.5
Error: -3.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (Russia) was reported at 6.5% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.5% by 2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 6.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.28%, ranging from -5.2% to 9.4% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 7.5%, up from the prior three at -1.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.78%) is higher than the prior year (σ 4.12%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.73%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Sep 30) and Gross Domestic Product YoY (Sep 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - RU
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About Producer Price Index YoY — Russia
DEFINITION
Russia's Producer Price Index YoY for August came in at 6.5%, missing the 4.5% estimate but slightly down from July's 6.6%. The index remains elevated, indicating persistent inflationary pressures despite a modest month-over-month decline. Market focus now shifts to upcoming inflation data and central bank policy decisions amid ongoing price volatility. Updated 9/16/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 6.5 %, consensus 4.5 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 6.6 %. Before that (May 2026): 9.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - RU Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:00 | RU | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.5 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 5.50 | Low |
| 16:00 | RU | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.9 | -2.5 | -0.9 | 0.00 | Low |