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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
RussiaRussia Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 8.6% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Russia Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 8.6% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 2.1% from August's 6.5% reading. The print exceeded the 6.7% consensus by 1.9%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.9%. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 6.55%, vs 7.45% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 83rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
8.6
Actual
6.7
Consensus
6.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.97 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 6.35
Actual: 8.6
Error: -2.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (Russia) was reported at 8.6% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 6.7% by 1.9%. The reading rose from the previous value of 6.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.27%, ranging from -5.2% to 9.4% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 7.23%, up from the prior three at 3.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.4%) is higher than the prior year (σ 4.01%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.98%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and GDP Growth Rate YoY (Nov 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - RU
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About Producer Price Index YoY — Russia
DEFINITION
Russia's Producer Price Index YoY rose to 8.600000% in October, surpassing the 6.700000% estimate and up from September's 6.500000%. This marks a significant acceleration in producer price inflation compared to the prior month. Market participants will closely watch upcoming data for signs of sustained inflationary pressure amid current monetary policy. Updated 10/21/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 8.6 %, consensus 6.7 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 6.5 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 6.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - RU Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | RU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49.8 | 50 | 50.10 | Medium | |
| Thursday, November 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | RU | S&P Global Composite PMI | 50.8 | 50.7 | 51.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | RU | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.3 | 51.1 | 51.45 | Low | |