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Data from Bank of England. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision held to 3.75% in April 2026
Bank of EnglandMonthlyReleased April 2026
United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision held to 3.75% in April 2026. The reading matched the 3.75% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 4.27%. BoE Interest Rate Decision is now the lowest in 39 months.
Latest Release
3.75
Actual
3.75
Consensus
3.75
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 3.75
Actual: 3.75
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.83 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.72 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
BoE Interest Rate Decision (United Kingdom) was reported at 3.75% in April 2026. This matched the market consensus of 3.75% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.92%, ranging from 3.75% to 4.25% across 6 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.75%, down from the prior three at 4.08%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.19%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.31%). In March readings over the past 3 years, BoE Interest Rate Decision has averaged 4.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CBI Distributive Trades (May 26) and CBI Distributive Trades (May 27).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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BoE Interest Rate Decision - UK
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About BoE Interest Rate Decision — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The BoE Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the monetary policy decisions of the Bank of England. This decision, made by the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee, determines the interest rate at which commercial banks can borrow money from the BoE. This rate has a significant impact on the overall economy, as it affects borrowing costs for businesses and individuals, inflation rates, and exchange rates. As such, the BoE Interest Rate Decision is closely monitored by investors, businesses, and policymakers as a crucial factor in understanding the current and future state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 3.75 %, consensus 3.75 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 3.75 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 3.75 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.83) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.