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Data from Bank of England. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision held to 3.75% in September 2026
Bank of EnglandMonthlyReleased September 2026
United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision held to 3.75% in September 2026. The reading matched the 3.75% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 4.0%. BoE Interest Rate Decision is now the lowest in 44 months.
Latest Release
3.75
Actual
3.75
Consensus
3.75
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 3.75
Actual: 3.75
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.83 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.72 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
BoE Interest Rate Decision (United Kingdom) was reported at 3.75% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 3.75% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.75%, ranging from 3.75% to 3.75% across 6 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.75%, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 0%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.28%). In September readings over the past 3 years, BoE Interest Rate Decision has averaged 4.25%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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BoE Interest Rate Decision - UK
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About BoE Interest Rate Decision — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The BoE Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the monetary policy decisions of the Bank of England. This decision, made by the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee, determines the interest rate at which commercial banks can borrow money from the BoE. This rate has a significant impact on the overall economy, as it affects borrowing costs for businesses and individuals, inflation rates, and exchange rates. As such, the BoE Interest Rate Decision is closely monitored by investors, businesses, and policymakers as a crucial factor in understanding the current and future state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 3.75 %, consensus 3.75 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 3.75 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 3.75 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.83) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Inflation Rate | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High |