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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY fell to 1.7% in June 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY fell to 1.7% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 1.7% from May's 3.4% reading. The reading missed the 2.9% consensus by 1.2%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.6%. Over the past 3 months, BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY averaged 0.0%, vs 2.03% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 54th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.7
Actual
2.9
Consensus
3.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.94 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 2.55
Actual: 1.7
Error: +0.85
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 1.7% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.9% by 1.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.37%, ranging from -3.4% to 3.4% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.57%, down from the prior three at 1.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.69%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.27%). In July readings over the past 3 years, BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY has averaged 1.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.94%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 10, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Jul 31) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY - UK
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About BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in retail sales for the British retail industry. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic health, making it a key tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers. With its timely and accurate data, the BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY is an essential resource for monitoring the performance of the UK retail sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 1.7 %, consensus 2.9 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 3.4 %. Before that (Apr 2026): -3.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.60) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 39 | 29 | 29 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 69 | 79 | 79 | 74.00 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.07 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.28 | Medium |