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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom CPI fell to 3.0% in July 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom CPI fell to 3.0% in July 2026, down 0.3% from June's 3.3% reading. The print came in cooler than the 3.2% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. CPI has now declined for 3 consecutive months. The reading is in the 35th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3
Actual
3.2
Consensus
3.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.14 percentage points
across last 10 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 2.95
Actual: 3
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI (United Kingdom) was reported at 3% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.2% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.11%, ranging from 0.2% to 3.8% across 13 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.4%, up from the prior three at 2.97%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.89%) is lower than the prior year (σ 50.63%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, negatively correlated (Bearish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 10 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.14%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Aug 19) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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CPI - UK
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About CPI — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is a widely used economic indicator that measures the average change in prices of goods and services purchased by households. It is an important tool for assessing inflation and the overall cost of living for consumers. The CPI is calculated by tracking the prices of a basket of goods and services over time, providing valuable insights into the current state of the economy and its impact on consumers. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions about economic trends and financial strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 3 %, consensus 3.2 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 3.7 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.51) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, August 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -13 | -13 | 5 | -18.00 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.42 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 83 | 147 | 200 | 181.00 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 4.17 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.85 | High |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | -11 | -6.4 | 11.2 | 5.45 | Low |
| 08:30 | UK | Labour Productivity QoQ | -0.8 | 1.1 | -0.5 | -0.28 | Low |
| Wednesday, August 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.2 | 2.90 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.70 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0 | 0.3 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.80 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 7.3 | 7 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.95 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -2 | -0.5 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | CPI MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.85 | High | |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.95 | Low | |
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | UK | CBI Industrial Trends Orders | -45 | -40 | -40.50 | Medium | |
| 23:01 | UK | Consumer Confidence | -17 | -18 | -18.00 | Medium | |