Loading page content
Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom CPI fell to 3.7% in May 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased June 2026
United Kingdom CPI fell to 3.7% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.3% from April's 4.0% reading. The print came in cooler than the 4.2% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.14%. Over the past 3 months, CPI averaged 3.75%, vs 3.03% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 76th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.7
Actual
4.2
Consensus
4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.17 percentage points
across last 9 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 4.2
Actual: 3.7
Error: +0.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI (United Kingdom) was reported at 3.7% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.2% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.12%, ranging from 0.2% to 3.8% across 13 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.4%, up from the prior three at 3.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). Over the last 9 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.18%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Consumer Confidence (Jul 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
SHARE
CPI - UK
Loading chart data...
About CPI — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is a widely used economic indicator that measures the average change in prices of goods and services purchased by households. It is an important tool for assessing inflation and the overall cost of living for consumers. The CPI is calculated by tracking the prices of a basket of goods and services over time, providing valuable insights into the current state of the economy and its impact on consumers. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions about economic trends and financial strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 3.7 %, consensus 4.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 4 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 3.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.47) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, July 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | 6.7 | 1.3 | 29.4 | 18.05 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Public Sector Net Borrowing | -16 | -23.3 | -19.8 | -19.40 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -4 | 3 | 20 | 8.00 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 147 | 99 | 85 | 116.00 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.40 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5 | 4.95 | High |