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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom CPI fell to 3.0% in July 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom CPI fell to 3.0% in July 2026, down 0.3% from June's 3.3% reading. The print came in cooler than the 3.2% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. CPI has now declined for 3 consecutive months. The reading is in the 35th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3
Actual
3.2
Consensus
3.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.14 percentage points
across last 10 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 2.95
Actual: 3
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI (United Kingdom) was reported at 3.1% in September 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 14.06%, ranging from 2.9% to 142.9% across 13 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 49.67%, up from the prior three at 3.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 37.19%) is lower than the prior year (σ 45.01%). In September readings over the past 3 years, CPI has averaged 3.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, negatively correlated (Bearish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 10 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.14%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Sep 15) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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CPI - UK
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About CPI — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is a widely used economic indicator that measures the average change in prices of goods and services purchased by households. It is an important tool for assessing inflation and the overall cost of living for consumers. The CPI is calculated by tracking the prices of a basket of goods and services over time, providing valuable insights into the current state of the economy and its impact on consumers. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions about economic trends and financial strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 3.1 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 142.9 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.49) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -13 | -4 | 37.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | -11 | 8.3 | 11.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 83 | 70 | 82.50 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 5 | 4.95 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.55 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -0.6 | -0.75 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.65 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.1 | 2.60 | Low | |