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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Employment Change fell to 100K in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
United Kingdom Employment Change fell to 100K in April 2026, released June 2026, down 48K from March's 148K reading. The print exceeded the 75K consensus by 25K. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 94.75K. Over the past 3 months, Employment Change averaged 86.5K, vs 72.67K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 48th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
100
Actual
75
Consensus
148
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±53.75 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 95.5
Actual: 100
Error: -4.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | INDEX | Bearish Euro STOXX 50 | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | INDEX | Bearish DAX | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | INDEX | Bearish FTSE 100 | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Employment Change (United Kingdom) was reported at 100 thousand in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 75 thousand by 25 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 148 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 102 thousand, ranging from -22 thousand to 238 thousand across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 111 thousand, up from the prior three at 39 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 80 thousand) is lower than the prior year (σ 96 thousand). In June readings over the past 3 years, Employment Change has averaged 17 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bearish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, negatively correlated (Bearish DAX). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 54 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 21, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Jul 13) and Goods Trade Balance (Jul 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Employment Change - UK
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About Employment Change — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Employment Change is a key economic indicator that measures the net change in the number of people employed in a given period of time. It provides valuable insights into the health of the job market and overall economic growth. A positive employment change indicates an increase in job opportunities, while a negative change suggests a decline in employment. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 100 K, consensus 75 K. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 148 K. Before that (Feb 2026): 25 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Euro STOXX 50 (Bearish Euro STOXX 50, r=-0.72) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Monday, July 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:01 | UK | BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY | 3.4 | 1.8 | 2.90 | Medium | |
| Thursday, July 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Industrial Production YoY | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Goods Trade Balance | -26.05 | -20.2 | -20.20 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Goods Trade Balance Non-EU | -13.05 | -9.6 | -9.60 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Construction Output YoY | -1 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | GDP 3-Month Avg | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product MoM | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Industrial Production MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Balance of Trade | -8.435 | -3.9 | -3.90 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |