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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom GDP Growth Rate QoQ fell to 0.4% in Q2 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsQuarterlyReleased September 2026
United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate QoQ fell to 0.4% in Q2 2026, released September 2026, down 0.2% from March's 0.6% reading. The print exceeded the 0.2% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.34%. The reading is in the 69th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
0.2
Consensus
0.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.2
Actual: 0.4
Error: -0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ (United Kingdom) was reported at 0.4% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.2% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.3%, ranging from 0.1% to 0.6% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.47%, up from the prior three at 0.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.2%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.27%). In September readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate QoQ has averaged 0.35%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with DAX (Bullish DAX). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Sep 15) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate QoQ - UK
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About GDP Growth Rate QoQ — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Quarter over Quarter) is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage change in a country's gross domestic product from one quarter to the next. It provides valuable insight into the overall health and growth of the economy, and is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions. A positive GDP Growth Rate QoQ indicates a growing economy, while a negative rate suggests a decline. This indicator is an important tool for assessing the current state and predicting future trends of a country's economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.4 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -13 | -4 | 37.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | -11 | 8.3 | 11.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 83 | 70 | 82.50 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 5 | 4.95 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.55 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -0.6 | -0.75 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.65 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.1 | 2.60 | Low | |