UK GDP Growth Rate QoQ for November 2025: Steady 0.10% Expansion Maintains Modest Momentum
Key Takeaways: The UK economy grew by 0.10% quarter-on-quarter in November 2025, matching October’s pace and aligning with market expectations. This steady but subdued growth reflects ongoing challenges from external shocks and constrained domestic demand. Monetary policy remains cautious amid inflationary pressures, while fiscal measures provide limited stimulus. Financial markets showed muted reactions, signaling tempered optimism. Structural headwinds and geopolitical risks continue to cloud the outlook, suggesting a cautious growth trajectory into 2026.
Table of Contents
The UK’s GDP growth rate for November 2025 held steady at 0.10% quarter-on-quarter, as reported today by the Sigmanomics database. This figure matches October’s growth rate, indicating a continuation of modest economic expansion. The 0.10% growth rate is below the six-month average of 0.35%, reflecting a slowdown from the stronger rebounds seen in May and June 2025, when growth peaked at 0.70% QoQ. Year-over-year, the economy remains sluggish, with November 2025’s 0.10% growth marking a deceleration from the 0.30% average growth recorded in the same month last year.
Drivers this month
- Consumer spending remained subdued amid rising living costs.
- Manufacturing output showed marginal gains, offset by weaker services sector performance.
- Export volumes were pressured by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and supply chain disruptions.
Policy pulse
The Bank of England has maintained a cautious stance, keeping interest rates steady to balance inflation control with growth support. Inflation remains above target, limiting room for monetary easing. Fiscal policy continues to focus on targeted support rather than broad stimulus, with government budgets constrained by debt sustainability concerns.
Market lens
Financial markets reacted mildly to the GDP release. The British pound (GBPUSD) showed a slight appreciation of 0.10% in the first hour post-release, reflecting confidence in the economy’s resilience. UK government bond yields remained stable, while equity markets showed limited movement, signaling tempered investor sentiment.
November 2025’s GDP growth rate of 0.10% QoQ aligns with the Sigmanomics database’s estimate and matches October’s figure, underscoring a period of steady but slow expansion. This contrasts with the more robust growth seen in mid-2025, particularly May and June’s 0.70% quarterly gains, which were driven by post-pandemic recovery and pent-up demand.
Comparative historical context
- September and August 2025 both recorded 0.30% growth, indicating a mild deceleration into autumn.
- December 2024 saw a flat 0.00% growth rate, highlighting the fragile recovery in late 2024.
- The 12-month average growth rate stands at approximately 0.25%, placing November’s reading below trend.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The Bank of England’s policy rate has remained at 5.25% since October 2025, reflecting a cautious approach amid persistent inflation near 4%. Credit conditions have tightened slightly, with lending growth slowing. The financial sector’s risk appetite remains moderate, influenced by global uncertainties and domestic fiscal constraints.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Fiscal policy continues to prioritize deficit reduction and targeted investment. The government’s November 2025 budget update reaffirmed commitments to infrastructure spending but avoided broad stimulus. Public sector borrowing remains elevated, limiting fiscal flexibility.
Drivers this month
- Services sector growth slowed to 0.05%, weighed down by consumer caution.
- Manufacturing output edged up 0.15%, supported by export resilience in select industries.
- Construction activity remained flat, reflecting ongoing supply chain bottlenecks.
Policy pulse
Monetary policy remains restrictive relative to pre-pandemic norms, with the Bank of England prioritizing inflation control. The current GDP growth rate sits below the central bank’s long-run target of 0.30% QoQ, indicating limited slack in the economy.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: GBPUSD rose 0.10%, UK 2-year yields held steady, and FTSE 100 showed marginal gains post-release. This reflects cautious optimism amid persistent uncertainty.
This chart highlights a clear trend of slowing growth since mid-2025, with November’s 0.10% reading marking a plateau after a series of decelerations. The data suggests the UK economy is stabilizing but lacks strong upward momentum, underscoring the need for supportive policy measures to sustain growth.
Looking ahead, the UK economy faces a mix of risks and opportunities. The baseline scenario projects continued modest growth of 0.10–0.20% QoQ in early 2026, supported by stable consumer spending and gradual easing of supply constraints. However, downside risks include renewed geopolitical tensions, tighter global financial conditions, and persistent inflationary pressures that could dampen demand.
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (20% probability): Stronger global growth and easing inflation lead to 0.40%+ quarterly growth, supported by fiscal stimulus and improved business investment.
- Base (60% probability): Continued 0.10–0.20% growth as inflation moderates slowly and monetary policy remains cautious.
- Bearish (20% probability): Geopolitical shocks or tighter credit conditions trigger stagnation or contraction, with growth near 0% or negative.
Structural & long-run trends
The UK’s long-term growth potential remains challenged by demographic shifts, productivity stagnation, and Brexit-related trade frictions. Structural reforms and innovation investment will be critical to reversing these trends and boosting sustainable growth beyond the near term.
November 2025’s GDP growth rate of 0.10% QoQ confirms a steady but subdued economic environment in the UK. While the economy avoids contraction, the pace of expansion remains below historical averages and central bank targets. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act between controlling inflation and fostering growth amid external uncertainties and structural challenges. Financial markets have priced in this cautious outlook, with muted volatility following the release. Investors and policymakers alike will watch upcoming data closely for signs of acceleration or further slowdown.
Key Markets Likely to React to GDP Growth Rate QoQ
The UK GDP growth rate is a critical barometer for multiple asset classes. Currency pairs, government bonds, equity indices, and select commodities often respond to shifts in economic momentum. Below are five key tradable symbols historically sensitive to UK GDP fluctuations:
- GBPUSD – The British pound against the US dollar typically strengthens with positive GDP surprises.
- FTSE100 – UK’s benchmark equity index reacts to growth outlook and corporate earnings tied to domestic demand.
- EURGBP – Euro to pound exchange rate reflects relative economic performance within Europe.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price can be influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and risk appetite shifts linked to growth data.
- HSBA.L – HSBC Holdings, a major UK bank, is sensitive to economic growth and credit conditions.
Since 2020, GBPUSD has shown a positive correlation with UK GDP growth rates, rising during periods of accelerating growth and retreating amid slowdowns. This relationship underscores the currency’s role as a real-time economic sentiment gauge.
FAQs
- What does the UK GDP Growth Rate QoQ indicate?
- The UK GDP Growth Rate QoQ measures the percentage change in the country’s economic output compared to the previous quarter, reflecting short-term economic momentum.
- How does the November 2025 GDP growth compare historically?
- November 2025’s 0.10% growth matches October’s pace but is below the mid-2025 highs of 0.70%, indicating a slowdown in economic expansion.
- What are the main risks to UK GDP growth going forward?
- Key risks include geopolitical tensions, inflation persistence, tighter monetary policy, and structural challenges such as productivity stagnation and trade frictions.
In summary, the UK’s November 2025 GDP growth rate of 0.10% QoQ signals a steady but cautious economic environment. Policymakers and investors should prepare for a range of outcomes, balancing optimism with vigilance amid persistent uncertainties.
November 2025’s GDP growth of 0.10% QoQ matches October’s pace and is below the six-month average of 0.35%. This steady but subdued growth contrasts with the 0.70% expansions in May and June 2025, signaling a moderation in economic momentum.
Compared to the 12-month average growth rate of 0.25%, the latest reading suggests the UK economy is navigating a period of constrained expansion amid external and domestic headwinds.