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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 1.4% in April 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsQuarterlyReleased September 2026
United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 1.4% in April 2026, released September 2026, up 0.6% from March's 0.8% reading. The print exceeded the 1.2% consensus by 0.2%. GDP Growth Rate YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the highest in 16 months.
Latest Release
1.4
Actual
1.2
Consensus
0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.17 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 1.25
Actual: 1.4
Error: -0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.66 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 1.4% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.2% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.15%, ranging from 0.9% to 1.4% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.17%, up from the prior three at 1.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.17%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.19%). In September readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 1.17%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, negatively correlated (Bearish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.18%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - UK
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1.2 %, consensus 1.6 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1.2 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/GBP (Bearish EUR, r=-0.66) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Inflation Rate | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High |