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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 1.1% in January 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsQuarterlyReleased May 2026
United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 1.1% in January 2026, released May 2026, up 0.1% from December's 1.0% reading. The print exceeded the 0.8% consensus by 0.3%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.22%. The reading is in the 47th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.1
Actual
0.8
Consensus
1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.8
Actual: 1.1
Error: -0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.71 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 1.1% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.8% by 0.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.2%, ranging from 1% to 1.4% across 8 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.03%, down from the prior three at 1.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.14%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.37%). In May readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 0.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CBI Distributive Trades (May 26) and CBI Distributive Trades (May 27).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - UK
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 1.1 %, consensus 0.8 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 1 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.71) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.