UK GDP Growth Rate YoY for November 2025: Steady at 1.3%
Key Takeaways: The UK’s GDP growth rate year-over-year (YoY) for November 2025 held steady at 1.3%, matching market expectations and maintaining the pace seen in October. This figure reflects a modest slowdown from the 1.4% growth recorded in September 2025 but remains above the sub-1% levels seen in late 2024. The data signals a cautiously resilient economy amid ongoing monetary tightening and geopolitical uncertainties. Forward-looking risks include inflation pressures, fiscal constraints, and external shocks from global trade tensions.
Table of Contents
The UK’s GDP growth rate YoY for November 2025 was released on December 22, 2025, showing a steady 1.3% increase compared to November 2024. This matches the market estimate of 1.3% and is unchanged from October 2025’s 1.3% reading. The figure marks a slight deceleration from September’s 1.4% but remains well above the 0.9% recorded in December 2024, indicating moderate but consistent economic expansion over the past year.
Geographic & Temporal Scope
This report focuses on the United Kingdom’s GDP growth rate on a year-over-year basis, with the latest data covering November 2025. The comparison period is October 2025, and historical context extends back to late 2024 to capture recent trends and volatility.
Core Macroeconomic Indicators
Alongside GDP, inflation remains a critical factor, with the Bank of England’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) hovering near 4.5% in November, down slightly from 4.7% in October. Unemployment rates have stabilized around 3.8%, supporting consumer spending. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for services and manufacturing showed mixed signals, with services expanding modestly and manufacturing contracting slightly.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Bank of England has maintained a cautious stance, keeping the base interest rate at 5.25% in December 2025 after a series of hikes earlier in the year. Financial conditions remain tight, with credit growth slowing and mortgage rates elevated. The yield curve has flattened, reflecting market expectations of slower growth ahead. Sterling (GBP) has traded in a narrow range against the US dollar, supported by steady economic data but pressured by global uncertainties.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
The UK government’s fiscal policy remains focused on deficit reduction, with the latest budget projecting a gradual decline in borrowing to 3.5% of GDP by 2026. Public investment in infrastructure and green energy continues, but austerity measures limit discretionary spending. Tax policy adjustments aim to balance growth support with fiscal prudence.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global trade tensions, particularly between the US and China, continue to pose risks to UK exports. Brexit-related trade frictions remain manageable but could intensify depending on EU-UK negotiations. Energy price volatility and supply chain disruptions add uncertainty to the near-term outlook.
Drivers this month
- Consumer spending contributed 0.6 percentage points (pp) to growth, supported by stable employment.
- Business investment added 0.3 pp, reflecting cautious optimism amid monetary tightening.
- Net exports subtracted 0.2 pp due to weaker demand from key trading partners.
- Government spending remained flat, contributing 0.0 pp.
Policy pulse
The 1.3% growth rate sits below the Bank of England’s 2% inflation target but above recessionary levels, suggesting a “soft landing” scenario is still plausible. Monetary policy remains restrictive but not overtly contractionary.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: GBP/USD traded slightly higher by 0.1% in the hour following the release, while 2-year gilt yields edged up 3 basis points, reflecting confidence in steady growth but cautious sentiment.
This chart highlights a UK economy stabilizing after a period of volatility. The GDP growth rate is trending sideways, reversing a two-month decline from September to November. The data suggests resilience but also signals limited upside without stronger fiscal or external support.
Bullish Scenario (25% probability)
Stronger global demand and easing inflation could lift UK GDP growth above 2% in early 2026. Fiscal stimulus and improved trade relations would support investment and exports, driving a sustained recovery.
Base Scenario (50% probability)
Growth remains steady around 1.2–1.4%, with inflation gradually declining and monetary policy stable. The economy avoids recession but lacks strong acceleration due to fiscal constraints and external uncertainties.
Bearish Scenario (25% probability)
Rising energy prices, renewed trade tensions, or tighter financial conditions could push growth below 1%, risking stagflation. Consumer confidence and business investment could weaken, prompting policy easing only later in 2026.
Overall, the UK economy faces a delicate balance. The latest GDP data from the Sigmanomics database confirms moderate growth but underscores vulnerabilities to external shocks and policy shifts.
The UK’s November 2025 GDP growth rate of 1.3% YoY signals a steady but unspectacular economic environment. While the economy has rebounded from late 2024 lows, growth remains constrained by monetary tightening, fiscal discipline, and geopolitical risks. Financial markets have responded with cautious optimism, reflected in modest gains in sterling and gilt yields. Looking ahead, policymakers must navigate inflation control without stifling growth, while external factors will continue to shape the trajectory.
Key Markets Likely to React to GDP Growth Rate YoY
The UK GDP growth rate is a critical indicator for several asset classes. Sterling pairs, UK equities, government bonds, and even select cryptocurrencies show sensitivity to shifts in growth expectations. Below are five tradable symbols from Sigmanomics that typically respond to UK GDP data:
- GBPUSD – The primary forex pair reflecting UK economic health versus the US dollar.
- FTSE100 – UK’s benchmark equity index, sensitive to domestic growth and global risk sentiment.
- EURGBP – Reflects relative economic strength between the UK and Eurozone.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin often reacts to macroeconomic uncertainty and risk appetite shifts.
- HSBA – HSBC Holdings, a major UK bank, sensitive to economic growth and interest rate changes.
Since 2020, GBPUSD has closely tracked UK GDP growth trends, with periods of accelerating GDP growth coinciding with sterling appreciation. This relationship underscores the currency’s role as a barometer of UK economic health and monetary policy expectations.
FAQs
- What does the UK GDP Growth Rate YoY indicate?
- The UK GDP Growth Rate YoY measures the annual percentage change in the country’s economic output, reflecting overall economic health and momentum.
- How does the November 2025 GDP figure compare to previous months?
- November 2025’s 1.3% growth matches October’s rate, slightly below September’s 1.4%, but above late 2024 lows near 0.9%, indicating steady but moderate expansion.
- What are the main risks to UK GDP growth going forward?
- Risks include inflation persistence, tighter monetary policy, fiscal constraints, Brexit-related trade issues, and global geopolitical tensions impacting trade and investment.
In summary, the UK’s November 2025 GDP growth rate confirms a steady economic path amid mixed headwinds. Policymakers and investors should prepare for a range of outcomes, balancing optimism with caution as global and domestic factors evolve.
Updated 12/22/25
The UK’s GDP growth rate YoY for November 2025 stood at 1.3%, unchanged from October’s 1.3% but down from September’s 1.4%. This figure remains above the 12-month average of approximately 1.2%, signaling a stable growth trajectory despite headwinds.
Comparing recent months, the economy showed a rebound from the 0.9% low in December 2024, with growth hovering between 1.2% and 1.5% through mid-2025. The data suggests a plateauing phase after a modest recovery period.