The UK Interest Rate Decision for January 2026 matched expectations at 3.75%, unchanged from December 2025's 3.75%. This steady rate signals a continued cautious stance amid stable economic conditions. Market participants will watch for future moves as inflation and growth data evolve. Updated 2/5/26
Interest Rate Decision - UK
Loading chart data...
Listen to: United Kingdom Interest Rate Decision
Key Takeaways: The Bank of England held its policy rate at 3.75% for January 2026, matching December’s level and market expectations. This marks a pause after a rapid 12-month easing cycle from 4.50% in February 2025. Inflation remains above target, but growth headwinds and fiscal tightening are mounting. Markets see a cautious path ahead, with sterling and gilt yields steady post-decision.
UK Interest Rate Decision for January 2026: Policy Pause Amid Mixed Macro Signals
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintained the Bank Rate at 3.75% for January 2026, as reported in the latest release on February 5, 2026. This decision follows December 2025’s identical 3.75% rate and reflects a measured stance as inflation pressures ease but growth risks persist.
For January 2026, the Bank of England left its policy rate unchanged at 3.75%, mirroring December 2025’s level and in line with consensus estimates. This pause follows a series of cuts from 4.50% in February 2025, 4.25% in May and June, and 4.00% in August and September, before reaching 3.75% in December. The 12-month average rate stands at 4.10%, highlighting the recent easing trend.
Headline CPI inflation for December 2025 was 3.20% year-on-year, down from 3.80% in November and a peak of 6.70% in early 2025.
GDP growth for Q4 2025 is estimated at 0.10% quarter-on-quarter, with stagnation in services and mild contraction in manufacturing.
Labour market data show unemployment at 4.40% in December, up from 4.10% in October, as job vacancies decline.
Policy pulse
The MPC’s decision reflects a balancing act: inflation is still above the 2% target, but the disinflation trend is clear. Real rates remain positive, and the Bank’s forward guidance signals a data-dependent approach, with no rush to resume tightening or accelerate cuts.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: GBP/USD was little changed, trading near 1.26, while 2-year gilt yields held at 3.82%. Market-implied rate expectations for end-2026 shifted marginally lower, with swaps now pricing in a 55% probability of another 25bp cut by June.
Foundational Indicators
Drivers this month
Inflation: December’s CPI at 3.20% YoY (vs. 3.80% in November, 4.50% in September).
Wage growth: Average weekly earnings rose 4.10% YoY in December, slowing from 4.80% in October.
Retail sales: Fell 0.30% MoM in December, after a 0.10% drop in November.
Government borrowing: Public sector net borrowing reached £12.40bn in December, up from £10.90bn in November, reflecting higher debt servicing costs.
Policy pulse
Fiscal policy remains tight, with the government reaffirming spending restraint in the Autumn Statement. The Bank’s rate path is now more closely tied to incoming inflation and wage data, as well as external shocks.
Market lens
Gilt yields have stabilized after a volatile 2025, with the 10-year yield at 3.68% (down from 4.15% in September). Sterling’s trade-weighted index is up 1.20% since December, reflecting relative policy stability versus peers.
Chart Dynamics
The current Bank Rate of 3.75% for January 2026 matches December’s 3.75% and is below the 12-month average of 4.10%. This marks the lowest level since March 2022, when rates began rising from pandemic lows. The pace of cuts has slowed, with the last move in December 2025.
Compared to the prior six months: August and September 2025 saw rates at 4.00%, June at 4.25%, and February at 4.50%. The year-on-year change is a full 75bp lower than January 2025’s 4.50%. The chart below illustrates the stepwise decline and recent stabilization.
UK Bank Rate (%), Feb 2025–Jan 2026
What This Chart Tells Us: The Bank Rate’s rapid descent from 4.50% to 3.75% over 12 months has now paused, signaling a wait-and-see approach as inflation cools but growth remains fragile.
Drivers this month
Core inflation fell 0.40pp MoM, led by energy and food price declines.
Services inflation remains sticky at 4.00% YoY, limiting scope for aggressive easing.
The Bank’s rate is now below the 12-month average for the first time since 2021. The MPC’s minutes stress vigilance on wage growth and global supply shocks.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: GBPUSD was flat, while FTSE 100 rose 0.30% in the hour after the release. Rate-sensitive sectors (banks, homebuilders) saw muted moves, reflecting broad consensus on the pause.
Forward Outlook
Drivers this month
With inflation trending lower but still above target, and growth tepid, the Bank faces a delicate balancing act. Fiscal drag and global uncertainty (notably from US and Eurozone monetary policy) add to the complexity.
Policy pulse
Bullish scenario (30%): Inflation falls below 2.50% by mid-2026, allowing two more 25bp cuts. GDP growth rebounds to 1.20% annualized.
Base case (55%): Rates remain at 3.75% through Q2, with a single 25bp cut in H2 as inflation nears 2.50%. Growth stays subdued at 0.60%.
Bearish scenario (15%): External shocks (energy, geopolitics) push inflation back above 3.50%, forcing the Bank to hold or even hike. Growth risks recession.
Market lens
Market-implied volatility remains low, with swaps pricing in just 35bp of easing by December 2026. Sterling options skew is neutral, and equity volatility has normalized after 2025’s swings.
Closing Thoughts
The Bank of England’s January 2026 rate hold at 3.75% underscores a cautious, data-driven stance. While inflation is falling, persistent services inflation and external risks limit the scope for further rapid easing. Fiscal policy is tightening, and the growth outlook remains fragile. Markets are pricing in a slow, shallow rate path, with risks tilted to the downside if global shocks intensify. The coming months will be pivotal for both policy and market sentiment.
Key Markets Likely to React to Interest Rate Decision
Interest rate decisions in the UK have immediate and pronounced effects on currency, bond, equity, and crypto markets. The following symbols are historically sensitive to Bank of England policy shifts, reflecting changes in yield differentials, risk appetite, and capital flows. Each asset’s price action can provide insight into market expectations for future policy and macro conditions.
HSBA – UK banking sector proxy; rate changes impact net interest margins and loan growth.
TSCO – UK retail bellwether; consumer spending is sensitive to borrowing costs and real incomes.
EURGBP – Reflects relative policy stances between the UK and Eurozone.
BTCGBP – Crypto flows often respond to shifts in fiat policy and inflation expectations.
Indicator vs. GBPUSD since 2020:
Year
BoE Rate (%)
GBPUSD (avg)
2020
0.10
1.28
2021
0.25
1.37
2022
1.25
1.23
2023
3.50
1.24
2024
5.25
1.27
2025
4.25
1.26
2026
3.75
1.26
GBPUSD has shown moderate sensitivity to BoE rate moves, with sharpest FX gains during periods of aggressive tightening. The recent pause has coincided with FX stability.
FAQ: UK Interest Rate Decision for January 2026
What is the Bank of England’s current policy rate?
The Bank Rate is 3.75% for January 2026, unchanged from December 2025 and down from 4.50% a year ago.
How does this decision affect UK financial markets?
UK rates influence sterling, gilt yields, and equity sectors like banks and retailers. The January pause led to muted market moves, reflecting consensus expectations.
What are the main risks to the outlook?
Upside risks include persistent services inflation and global supply shocks. Downside risks stem from weak growth, fiscal tightening, and external demand shocks.
Bottom line: The Bank of England’s January 2026 pause signals a cautious approach as inflation cools but growth risks persist. Markets are pricing in a slow, shallow easing path, with vigilance on global shocks.
Author: Sigmanomics Editorial Team
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 2/5/26
Economic Calendar - UK Events
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
UK
PPI Core Output MoM
0.3
0.1
0.4
0.48
Low
06:00
UK
Retail Price Index YoY
4.3
4.5
4.2
4.18
Low
06:00
UK
PPI Output MoM
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.22
Low
06:00
UK
Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
3.4
3.1
3.07
High
06:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
0.6
0.3
0.32
Low
06:00
UK
PPI Input MoM
-0.1
0.3
0.1
-0.20
Low
06:00
UK
PPI Output YoY
0.6
0.4
1.4
1.33
Low
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
UK
HMRC Payrolls Change
-67
-18
27
19.00
Low
06:00
UK
Employment Change
-156
-21
110
60.33
High
06:00
UK
Average Earnings incl. Bonus
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.53
Medium
06:00
UK
Unemployment Rate
4.2
4
4
4.02
High
06:00
UK
Claimant Count Change
10.9
4.1
17.2
16.92
Low
06:00
UK
Average Earnings excl. Bonus
6
6.1
6.1
6.10
Low
Friday, April 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:25
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.20
Low
06:00
UK
GDP MoM
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.12
High
06:00
UK
Construction Output YoY
-2
2
-1
-1.27
Low
06:00
UK
Goods Trade Balance Non-EU
-2.9
-3.34
-3.7
-3.66
High
06:00
UK
GDP YoY
-0.2
-0.1
-0.4
-0.42
Low
06:00
UK
GDP 3-Month Avg
0.2
0
0.1
0.08
Medium
06:00
UK
Balance of Trade
-2.291
-2.205
-3.7
-3.72
Low
06:00
UK
Industrial Production MoM
1.1
-0.3
0
0.27
Medium
06:00
UK
Goods Trade Balance
-14.21
-14.1
-14.5
-14.22
High
06:00
UK
Manufacturing Production MoM
1.2
-0.2
0.1
0.42
Medium
06:00
UK
Industrial Production YoY
1.4
0.3
0.6
0.87
Low
06:00
UK
Manufacturing Production YoY
2.7
1.5
2.1
2.48
Low
Wednesday, April 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:01
UK
RICS House Price Balance
-4
-10
-6
-4.33
Low
Monday, April 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:01
UK
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
3.2
1
1.8
1.88
High
09:00
UK
BBA Mortgage Rate
7.92
7.92
7.9
7.91
Low
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
UK
S&P Global Construction PMI
50.2
49.7
50
50.40
Medium
06:00
UK
Halifax House Price Index MoM
-1
0.3
0.1
-0.10
Medium
06:00
UK
Halifax House Price Index YoY
0.3
1.6
1.45
1.26
Medium
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
52.8
53
52.9
52.80
Low
08:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
53.1
53.8
53.4
53.20
High
08:00
UK
New Car Sales YoY
10.4
14
17
15.23
Low
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
UK
Mortgage Approvals
60.383
56.087
56.5
57.34
Medium
08:30
UK
M4 Money Supply MoM
0.5
0
0.2
0.23
Low
08:30
UK
Net Lending to Individuals MoM
2.888
0.697
1.2
1.11
Low
08:30
UK
Mortgage Lending
1.51
-1.073
-0.15
-0.27
Medium
08:30
UK
BoE Consumer Credit
1.378
1.77
1.6
1.58
Medium
08:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
50.3
47.5
49.9
50.38
High
06:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM
-0.2
0.7
0.3
0.38
Medium
06:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY
1.6
1.2
2.4
2.47
Medium
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Business Investment YoY
2.8
1.9
3.7
4.13
Low
07:00
UK
Business Investment QoQ
1.4
-2.8
1.5
1.88
Low
07:00
UK
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.3
-0.1
-0.3
-0.35
Medium
07:00
UK
Current Account
-21.177
-18.524
-21.4
-21.29
Medium
07:00
UK
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-0.2
0.2
-0.2
-0.28
Medium
00:01
UK
Car Production YoY
14.6
21
17
19.97
Low
Monday, March 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Distributive Trades
2
-7
-15
-8.83
Medium
Friday, March 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Industrial Trends Orders
-18
-20
-17
-17.17
Medium
07:00
UK
Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY
-0.5
0.5
-0.9
-1.02
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales YoY
-0.4
0.5
-0.7
-0.88
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM
0.2
3.4
-0.1
-0.25
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales MoM
0
3.6
-0.3
-0.38
High
00:01
UK
Gfk Consumer Confidence
-21
-21
-19
-19.50
Medium
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Cut
19
19
19
21.50
Medium
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Hike
9
29
19
19.00
Medium
12:00
UK
BoE Interest Rate Decision
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
High
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Unchanged
89
69
79
76.50
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
49.9
47.5
47.8
48.28
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
53.4
53.8
53.8
53.60
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
52.9
53
53.1
53.00
Medium
07:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing
-7.477
17.038
-1.8
-2.15
Low
07:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks
-8.401
16.114
-5.95
-5.66
Low
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
PPI Input YoY
-2.7
-2.8
-2.7
-2.90
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Core Output MoM
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.18
Low
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
-0.6
0.7
0.67
Medium
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
4
3.5
3.47
High
07:00
UK
PPI Output MoM
0.3
0
0.1
0.12
Low
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.5
5.1
4.6
4.60
Medium
07:00
UK
PPI Core Output YoY
0.3
-0.3
0.1
0.18
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Input MoM
-0.4
-0.1
0.2
-0.10
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output YoY
0.4
-0.3
-0.1
-0.17
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index YoY
4.5
4.9
4.5
4.48
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index MoM
0.8
-0.3
0.7
0.70
Low
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
-0.9
0.7
0.72
Low
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
RICS House Price Balance
-10
-18
-11
-9.33
Low
Wednesday, March 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
0
-0.1
0
0.00
Low
07:00
UK
GDP 3-Month Avg
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1
-0.12
Medium
07:00
UK
Industrial Production MoM
-0.2
0.6
0
0.27
Medium
07:00
UK
Industrial Production YoY
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.97
Low
07:00
UK
GDP YoY
-0.3
0
-0.3
-0.32
Low
07:00
UK
Goods Trade Balance Non-EU
-3.421
-3.319
-3.1
-3.06
High
07:00
UK
Construction Output YoY
0.7
-3.2
-0.5
-0.77
Low
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production MoM
0
0.8
0
0.32
Medium
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production YoY
2
2.3
2
2.38
Low
07:00
UK
GDP MoM
0.2
-0.1
0.2
0.22
High
07:00
UK
Balance of Trade
-3.129
-2.603
-2.3
-2.32
Low
07:00
UK
Goods Trade Balance
-14.515
-13.989
-15
-14.72
High
Tuesday, March 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Employment Change
-21
72
10
-39.67
High
07:00
UK
HMRC Payrolls Change
20
15
34
26.00
Low
07:00
UK
Average Earnings excl. Bonus
6.1
6.2
6.2
6.20
Low
07:00
UK
Unemployment Rate
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.82
High
07:00
UK
Claimant Count Change
16.8
3.1
20.3
20.02
Low
07:00
UK
Average Earnings incl. Bonus
5.6
5.8
5.7
5.73
Medium
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
UK
BBA Mortgage Rate
7.92
7.92
7.95
7.96
Low
07:00
UK
Halifax House Price Index MoM
0.4
1.2
1
0.80
Medium
07:00
UK
Halifax House Price Index YoY
1.7
2.3
2.3
2.11
Medium
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Construction PMI
49.7
48.8
49
49.40
Medium
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
53
52.9
53.3
53.20
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
53.8
54.3
54.3
54.10
High
09:00
UK
New Car Sales YoY
14
8.2
15
13.23
Low
00:01
UK
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
1
1.4
1.6
1.68
High
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
47.5
47
47.1
47.58
High
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY
1.2
-0.2
0.7
0.77
Medium
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM
0.7
0.7
0.3
0.38
Medium
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
Mortgage Lending
-1.086
-0.854
0.2
0.08
Medium
09:30
UK
M4 Money Supply MoM
-0.1
0.5
0.3
0.33
Low
09:30
UK
Net Lending to Individuals MoM
0.791
0.403
1.9
1.81
Low
09:30
UK
BoE Consumer Credit
1.877
1.257
1.6
1.58
Medium
09:30
UK
Mortgage Approvals
55.227
51.506
52
52.84
Medium
00:01
UK
Car Production YoY
21
20.7
15
17.97
Low
Monday, February 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Distributive Trades
-7
-50
-47
-40.83
Medium
Friday, February 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
Gfk Consumer Confidence
-21
-19
-18
-18.50
High
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI
53.3
52.9
52.9
53.08
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
47.1
47
47.5
47.55
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI
54.3
54.3
54.1
54.32
High
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Industrial Trends Orders
-20
-30
-27
-27.17
Medium
07:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing
17.62
-6.45
18.4
18.05
Low
07:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks
16.69
-7.37
18.7
18.99
Low
Friday, February 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM
3.2
-3.5
1.7
1.55
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales YoY
0.7
-2.4
-1.4
-1.58
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY
0.7
-2.1
-1.6
-1.72
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales MoM
3.4
-3.3
1.5
1.42
High
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
-0.1
-0.3
0.1
0.10
Low
07:00
UK
Balance of Trade
-2.603
-3.723
-1.9
-1.92
Low
07:00
UK
Business Investment QoQ
1.5
-2.8
-0.1
0.28
Medium
07:00
UK
GDP 3-Month Avg
-0.3
-0.4
-0.1
-0.12
Medium
07:00
UK
Construction Orders YoY
-30.2
-20
5
-12.60
Low
07:00
UK
Business Investment YoY
3.7
2.6
1.1
1.52
Low
07:00
UK
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-0.2
0.2
0.1
0.02
High
07:00
UK
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.3
-0.1
-0.1
-0.15
High
07:00
UK
Construction Output YoY
-3.2
-0.7
-1.4
-1.67
Low
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production MoM
0.8
0.8
0
0.32
Medium
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production YoY
2.3
1.9
0.6
0.98
Low
07:00
UK
Industrial Production YoY
0.6
0.1
-0.4
-0.13
Low
07:00
UK
Industrial Production MoM
0.6
0.5
-0.1
0.17
Medium
07:00
UK
Goods Trade Balance Non-EU
-3.319
-3.747
-3.1
-3.06
High
07:00
UK
Goods Trade Balance
-13.989
-15.125
-14.9
-14.62
High
07:00
UK
GDP MoM
-0.1
0.2
-0.2
-0.18
High
07:00
UK
Labour Productivity QoQ
0.7
0.6
-0.2
0.25
Low
07:00
UK
GDP YoY
0
-0.3
0.3
0.28
Low
Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.6
0.4
-0.3
-0.33
Medium
07:00
UK
PPI Output YoY
-0.6
0.1
-0.5
-0.57
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index YoY
4.9
5.2
5.1
5.08
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index MoM
-0.3
0.5
-0.1
-0.10
Low
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate YoY
4
4
4.2
4.17
High
07:00
UK
PPI Output MoM
-0.2
-0.5
-0.1
-0.08
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Input YoY
-3.3
-2.1
-3
-3.20
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Input MoM
-0.8
-0.4
0.2
-0.10
Low
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate MoM
-0.9
0.6
-0.8
-0.78
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Core Output YoY
-0.4
0
-0.7
-0.62
Low
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate YoY
5.1
5.1
5.2
5.20
Medium
07:00
UK
PPI Core Output MoM
0.2
-0.1
-0.3
-0.22
Low
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Average Earnings excl. Bonus
6.2
6.7
6
6.00
Low
07:00
UK
Average Earnings incl. Bonus
5.8
6.7
5.6
5.63
Medium
07:00
UK
Employment Change
72
108
73
23.33
High
07:00
UK
Claimant Count Change
14.1
5.5
6
5.72
Low
07:00
UK
HMRC Payrolls Change
48
31
-12
-20.00
Low
07:00
UK
Unemployment Rate
3.8
3.9
4
4.02
High
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
RICS House Price Balance
-18
-29
-25
-23.33
Low
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:45
UK
BBA Mortgage Rate
7.96
7.96
7.91
7.92
Low
07:00
UK
Halifax House Price Index YoY
2.5
1.8
1.9
1.71
Medium
07:00
UK
Halifax House Price Index MoM
1.3
1.1
0.8
0.60
Medium
Tuesday, February 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI
48.8
46.8
47.3
47.88
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Construction PMI
48.8
46.8
47.3
47.70
Medium
00:01
UK
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
1.4
1.9
1.7
1.78
High
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
54.3
53.4
53.8
53.60
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI
54.3
53.4
53.8
54.02
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI
52.9
52.1
52.5
52.68
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
52.9
52.1
52.5
52.40
Low
09:00
UK
New Car Sales YoY
8
9.8
11
9.23
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Cut
19
9
9
11.50
Medium
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Unchanged
69
69
89
86.50
Medium
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Hike
29
39
19
19.00
Medium
12:00
UK
BoE Interest Rate Decision
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
47
46.2
46.9
47.38
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
47
46.2
46.9
46.95
High
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY
-0.2
-1.8
-0.9
-0.83
Medium
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM
0.7
0
0.1
0.18
Medium
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
Net Lending to Individuals MoM
0.367
2.063
1.5
1.41
Low
09:30
UK
M4 Money Supply MoM
0.5
-0.1
0.2
0.23
Low
09:30
UK
Mortgage Lending
-0.83
0.006
0.25
0.13
Medium
09:30
UK
BoE Consumer Credit
1.197
2.058
1.35
1.33
Medium
09:30
UK
Mortgage Approvals
50.459
49.313
52.5
53.34
Medium
Friday, January 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
Gfk Consumer Confidence
-19
-22
-21
-21.50
High
Thursday, January 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Distributive Trades
-50
-32
-30
-23.83
Medium
00:01
UK
Car Production YoY
20.7
14.8
6.5
9.47
Low
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Business Optimism Index
-3
-15
-2
-2.50
Medium
11:00
UK
CBI Industrial Trends Orders
-30
-23
-23
-23.17
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI
53.8
53.4
53.2
53.42
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
47.3
46.2
46.7
46.75
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI
52.5
52.1
52.2
52.38
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
53.8
53.4
53.2
53.00
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
52.5
52.1
52.2
52.10
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
47.3
46.2
46.7
47.18
Medium
Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks
-7.77
-13.71
-14
-13.71
Low
07:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing
-6.85
-12.78
-11.2
-11.55
Low
Friday, January 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY
-2.1
0.5
1.3
1.18
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales YoY
-2.4
0.2
1.1
0.92
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM
-3.3
1.5
-0.6
-0.75
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales MoM
-3.2
1.4
-0.5
-0.58
High
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
RICS House Price Balance
-30
-41
-34
-32.33
Low
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
PPI Input YoY
-2.8
-2.7
-1.9
-2.10
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output YoY
0.1
-0.1
0.4
0.33
Low
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
-0.3
0.4
0.42
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Core Output YoY
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.18
Low
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate YoY
4
3.9
3.8
3.77
High
07:00
UK
PPI Core Output MoM
0
0
-0.1
-0.02
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output MoM
-0.6
0
-0.2
-0.18
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index YoY
5.2
5.3
5.1
5.08
Low
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate YoY
5.1
5.1
4.9
4.90
Medium
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
-0.2
0.2
0.17
Medium
07:00
UK
PPI Input MoM
-1.2
-0.4
-0.7
-1.00
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index MoM
0.5
-0.1
0.4
0.40
Low
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Employment Change
73
55
50
0.33
High
07:00
UK
Claimant Count Change
11.7
0.6
3
2.72
High
07:00
UK
Unemployment Rate
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.22
High
07:00
UK
Average Earnings excl. Bonus
6.6
7.2
6.6
6.60
Low
07:00
UK
HMRC Payrolls Change
-24
9
30
22.00
Low
07:00
UK
Average Earnings incl. Bonus
6.5
7.2
6.8
6.83
Medium
Friday, January 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
0
-0.2
0
0.00
Low
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production YoY
1.3
0.2
1.7
2.08
Low
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production MoM
0.4
-1.2
0.3
0.62
Low
07:00
UK
GDP MoM
0.3
-0.3
0.2
0.22
High
07:00
UK
GDP 3-Month Avg
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.12
Medium
07:00
UK
Goods Trade Balance
-14.189
-15.936
-15.7
-15.42
High
07:00
UK
GDP YoY
0.2
-0.1
0.2
0.18
Low
07:00
UK
Balance of Trade
-1.408
-3.198
-4
-4.02
Low
07:00
UK
Construction Output YoY
0.9
1.3
1.3
1.03
Low
07:00
UK
Industrial Production MoM
0.3
-1.3
0.3
0.57
Low
07:00
UK
Industrial Production YoY
-0.1
-0.5
0.7
0.97
Medium
07:00
UK
Goods Trade Balance Non-EU
-2.838
-3.919
-4.2
-4.16
High
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
1.9
2.6
2.1
2.18
High
Monday, January 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
UK
BBA Mortgage Rate
7.96
8.03
8
8.01
Low
Friday, January 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI
46.8
45.5
46
46.58
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Construction PMI
46.8
45.5
46
46.40
Medium
09:00
UK
New Car Sales YoY
9.8
9.5
11.1
9.33
Low
07:00
UK
Halifax House Price Index MoM
1.1
0.6
0.1
-0.10
Medium
07:00
UK
Halifax House Price Index YoY
1.7
-0.8
-0.4
-0.59
Medium
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
Mortgage Approvals
50.067
47.888
48.5
49.34
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
53.4
50.9
52.7
52.50
Medium
09:30
UK
Mortgage Lending
-0.039
-0.083
-0.2
-0.32
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
52.1
50.7
51.7
51.60
Low
09:30
UK
Net Lending to Individuals MoM
1.97
1.3
1
0.91
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI
52.1
50.7
51.7
51.88
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI
53.4
50.9
52.7
53.05
High
09:30
UK
BoE Consumer Credit
2.005
1.411
1.4
1.38
Medium
09:30
UK
M4 Money Supply MoM
-0.1
0.3
0.1
0.13
Low
Tuesday, January 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
46.2
47.2
46.4
46.88
Medium
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Interest Rate Decision Holds Steady at 3.75 Percent UK UK Interest Rate Decision Maintains Current Policy Level The UK Interest Rate Decision, which sets the benchmark borrowing cost, remained unchanged at 3.75 percent in February 2026. This steady rate follows a gradual easing from last year’s peak of 4.50 percent, reflecting the Bank of England’s cautious approach amid mixed inflation signals and slowing growth. Fast facts: current rate 3.75%, unchanged from December 2025, released February 5, 2026. Analysts at Morgan Stanley note that holding rates steady signals a wait-and-see stance as consumer spending softens and inflation pressures moderate. The decision aligns with global central banks’ moves to balance inflation control without stifling recovery. As the UK economy navigates uncertain global conditions, this steady interest rate decision underscores the Bank’s focus on stability and measured policy adjustments.
Chart Dynamics
The current Bank Rate of 3.75% for January 2026 matches December’s 3.75% and is below the 12-month average of 4.10%. This marks the lowest level since March 2022, when rates began rising from pandemic lows. The pace of cuts has slowed, with the last move in December 2025.
Compared to the prior six months: August and September 2025 saw rates at 4.00%, June at 4.25%, and February at 4.50%. The year-on-year change is a full 75bp lower than January 2025’s 4.50%. The chart below illustrates the stepwise decline and recent stabilization.