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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Unemployment Rate fell to 4.7% in August 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased October 2026
United Kingdom Unemployment Rate fell to 4.7% in August 2026, released October 2026, down 0.2% from July's 4.9% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 4.99%. Over the past 3 months, Unemployment Rate averaged 4.9%, vs 4.93% in the prior 3-month window. Unemployment Rate is now the lowest in 15 months.
Latest Release
4.7
Actual
4.9
Consensus
4.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 4.9
Actual: 4.7
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (United Kingdom) was reported at 4.7% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.9% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.99%, ranging from 4.7% to 5.2% across 11 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.83%, down from the prior three at 4.93%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.14%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.17%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Unemployment Rate has averaged 4.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Unemployment Rate - UK
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About Unemployment Rate — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Unemployment Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of the total labor force that is currently without a job and actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the health of the job market and the overall state of the economy. A high unemployment rate can indicate a weak economy, while a low unemployment rate can suggest a strong and growing economy. This data is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 4.7 %, consensus 4.9 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 4.9 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 4.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100, r=0.61) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Inflation Rate | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High |