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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 10.3 in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 10.3 in June 2026, up 10.7 from May's -0.4 reading. The reading matched the 10 consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 6.95. Over the past 3 months, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index averaged 13.15, vs 15.67 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 54th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
10.3
Actual
10
Consensus
-0.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±10.14
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.8
Actual: 10.3
Error: -9.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (United States) was reported at 10.30 in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 10.00 by 0.30. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.40. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6.45, ranging from -12.80 to 23.20 across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 9.33, up from the prior three at 6.23. Volatility over the past year (σ 11.53) is lower than the prior year (σ 17.58). In June readings over the past 3 years, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index has averaged 2.53.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 10.14.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Import Prices MoM (Jul 17) and Building Permits (Jul 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index - US
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About Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is a monthly survey that measures the overall health and performance of the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia region. It provides valuable insights into key economic indicators such as new orders, shipments, and employment, and is considered a reliable gauge of the overall strength of the manufacturing industry in the United States. This index is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can serve as an early indicator of potential changes in the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 10.3, consensus 10. Prior reading (May 2026): -0.4. Before that (Apr 2026): 26.7.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.41) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, July 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 6.7 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.177 | 1.2 | 1.20 | High | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.95 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.4 | 1 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.2 | 76.7 | 76.40 | Low | |