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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 41.4 in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 41.4 in July 2026, up 31.1 from June's 10.3 reading. The print exceeded the 13 consensus by 28.4. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index averaged 4.95, vs 20.37 in the prior 3-month window. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is now the highest in 17 months.
Latest Release
41.4
Actual
13
Consensus
10.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±13.34
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 8.48
Actual: 41.4
Error: -32.92
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (United States) was reported at 41.40 in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 13.00 by 28.40. The reading rose from the previous value of 10.30. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 8.77, ranging from -12.80 to 41.40 across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 17.10, up from the prior three at 15.67. Volatility over the past year (σ 15.18) is lower than the prior year (σ 17.69). In July readings over the past 3 years, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index has averaged 23.73.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 13.34.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index - US
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About Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is a monthly survey that measures the overall health and performance of the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia region. It provides valuable insights into key economic indicators such as new orders, shipments, and employment, and is considered a reliable gauge of the overall strength of the manufacturing industry in the United States. This index is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can serve as an early indicator of potential changes in the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 41.4, consensus 13. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 10.3. Before that (May 2026): -0.4.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.47) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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