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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell to 20.9 in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell to 20.9 in October 2026, down 16.9 from September's 37.8 reading. The reading missed the 28.4 consensus by 7.5. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index averaged 42.6, vs 17.1 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 73rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
20.9
Actual
28.4
Consensus
37.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±12.21
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 35.82
Actual: 20.9
Error: +14.92
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (United States) was reported at 20.90 in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 28.40 by 7.50. The reading fell from the previous value of 37.80. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 17.50, ranging from -10.20 to 47.40 across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 35.37, up from the prior three at 17.10. Volatility over the past year (σ 17.64) is comparable than the prior year (σ 18.85). In October readings over the past 3 years, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index has averaged 6.13.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 12.21.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index - US
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About Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is a monthly survey that measures the overall health and performance of the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia region. It provides valuable insights into key economic indicators such as new orders, shipments, and employment, and is considered a reliable gauge of the overall strength of the manufacturing industry in the United States. This index is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can serve as an early indicator of potential changes in the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 20.9, consensus 28.4. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 37.8. Before that (Aug 2026): 47.4.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bearish USD, r=-0.49) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |