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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 47.4 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 47.4 in August 2026, up 6 from July's 41.4 reading. The print exceeded the 25 consensus by 22.4. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index averaged 25.85, vs 14.8 in the prior 3-month window. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is now the highest in 36 months.
Latest Release
47.4
Actual
25
Consensus
41.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±13
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 32.18
Actual: 47.4
Error: -15.23
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (United States) was reported at 47.40 in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 25.00 by 22.40. The reading rose from the previous value of 41.40. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 13.11, ranging from -12.80 to 47.40 across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 33.03, up from the prior three at 11.33. Volatility over the past year (σ 18.43) is comparable than the prior year (σ 17.46). In August readings over the past 3 years, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index has averaged 13.37.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 13.00.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index - US
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About Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is a monthly survey that measures the overall health and performance of the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia region. It provides valuable insights into key economic indicators such as new orders, shipments, and employment, and is considered a reliable gauge of the overall strength of the manufacturing industry in the United States. This index is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can serve as an early indicator of potential changes in the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 47.4, consensus 25. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 41.4. Before that (Jun 2026): 10.3.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bearish USD, r=-0.51) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |