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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Producer Price Index MoM climbed to 0.4% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Producer Price Index MoM climbed to 0.4% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.3% from July's 0.1% reading. The reading matched the 0.4% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.49%. The reading is in the 53rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
0.4
Consensus
0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.3
Actual: 0.4
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index MoM (United States) was reported at 0.4% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.4% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.61%, ranging from 0% to 1.4% across 8 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.5%, down from the prior three at 0.87%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.42%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.97%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with MSFT (Bearish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with AAPL, negatively correlated (Bearish AAPL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.25%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct 9) and CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions (Oct 9).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Producer Price Index MoM - US
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About Producer Price Index MoM — United States
DEFINITION
US Producer Price Index MoM rose 0.400000% in August, matching estimates and up from July’s 0.100000%. The increase signals a notable acceleration in producer inflation compared to the prior month. Market focus will remain on upcoming inflation data and Federal Reserve policy decisions. Updated 9/10/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0.4 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 0 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bearish MSFT, r=-0.62) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, October 8, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1716 | 1699 | 1710 | 1713.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198 | 200.5 | 198 | 198.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 199 | 200 | 198.50 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.60 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 85 | 64 | 79 | 82.00 | Low |
| 15:15 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.65 | Medium |
| Friday, October 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 48.1 | 47.6 | 47.60 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 46.3 | 45.9 | 45.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 50.9 | 50.5 | 50.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.70 | Low | |
| Monday, October 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | 210 | 217.90 | Medium | |
| Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 98.7 | 96 | 96.80 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2 | -0.3 | -0.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 3.98 | 3.97 | 3.97 | High | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | 210 | 217.90 | Medium | |