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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Producer Price Index MoM held to 1.1% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Producer Price Index MoM held to 1.1% in May 2026, released June 2026. The print exceeded the 0.7% consensus by 0.4%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.32%. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index MoM averaged 0.87%, vs 0.5% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 90th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.1
Actual
0.7
Consensus
1.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.29 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 1.03
Actual: 1.1
Error: -0.08
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index MoM (United States) was reported at 1.1% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.7% by 0.4%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.66%, ranging from -0.1% to 1.4% across 8 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.07%, up from the prior three at 0.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.44%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.05%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with NZD/USD (Bearish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, negatively correlated (Bearish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.29%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Existing Home Sales MoM (Aug 11) and Existing Home Sales (Aug 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Producer Price Index MoM - US
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About Producer Price Index MoM — United States
DEFINITION
The US Producer Price Index MoM for May came in at 1.100000%, matching April’s 1.100000% and exceeding the 0.700000% estimate, indicating sustained inflationary pressure at the producer level. May’s reading maintains the elevated trend seen since March’s 0.7%, signaling persistent cost increases for producers. Market participants will closely watch upcoming inflation data and Federal Reserve communications for further policy guidance. Updated 6/11/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 1.1 %, consensus 0.7 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1.4 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bearish NZD, r=-0.63) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, August 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.4 | 97.8 | 97.70 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2.4 | -0.7 | -1.65 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 4.09 | 4.07 | 4.05 | High | |
| Wednesday, August 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.55 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 333.95 | 334.03 | 334.39 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 332.568 | 332.6 | 332.85 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -120 | -294.6 | -297.10 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -120 | -294.6 | -265.70 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1801 | 1799 | 1799.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 199 | 198 | 198.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.15 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.55 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198.75 | 197 | 197.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 156.566 | 156.41 | 157.36 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.5 | 5 | 5.55 | Low | |