Albania’s latest GDP growth rate for Q3 2025, released on September 29, 2025, shows a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.90%. This figure surpasses both the market consensus of 0.30% and the previous quarter’s 0.70%, signaling a modest acceleration in economic activity. The data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, reflects a resilient economy amid global uncertainties.

Drivers this month

• Strong domestic consumption contributed approximately 0.40 percentage points (pp).
• Investment growth added 0.30 pp, supported by infrastructure projects.
• Net exports contributed 0.20 pp, aided by a rebound in tourism and exports.

Policy pulse

The growth rate remains above the central bank’s inflation target range, supporting the current accommodative monetary stance. The Bank of Albania has maintained a stable policy rate at 2.50%, encouraging credit growth and investment.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Albanian lek (ALL) appreciated 0.30% against the euro within the first hour of the release, while 2-year government bond yields declined by 5 basis points, reflecting improved investor confidence.

Examining core macroeconomic indicators alongside GDP growth provides a fuller picture of Albania’s economic health. Inflation remains contained at 2.10% YoY as of August 2025, close to the central bank’s 2% target. Unemployment has edged down to 11.50%, a slight improvement from 12.00% a year ago.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Bank of Albania’s steady policy rate and ample liquidity have supported credit expansion, with private sector loans growing 6.20% YoY. Financial conditions remain accommodative, though global tightening trends warrant vigilance.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal stimulus continues, with the government running a 3.50% of GDP deficit in H1 2025, financing infrastructure and social programs. Public debt stands at 65% of GDP, stable but requiring prudent management to avoid crowding out private investment.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Albania faces moderate risks from regional geopolitical tensions and global supply chain disruptions. Energy price volatility and trade uncertainties could dampen export growth and inflation stability.

Drivers this month

• Consumption growth accelerated to 1.10% QoQ, driven by wage gains and remittances.
• Investment surged 1.30% QoQ, reflecting government infrastructure spending.
• Exports rose 0.80% QoQ, supported by tourism and manufacturing sectors.

Policy pulse

Monetary policy remains accommodative, with inflation expectations anchored near 2%. The central bank’s forward guidance signals no immediate rate hikes, supporting growth momentum.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The ALL strengthened modestly, while local equity indices showed a 0.50% gain, reflecting optimism about sustained growth.

Looking ahead, Albania’s GDP growth faces a mix of supportive factors and risks. The baseline scenario projects 0.80% QoQ growth in Q4 2025, with a 60% probability, assuming continued fiscal support and stable external conditions.

Bullish scenario (25% probability)

• Stronger-than-expected tourism rebound and export growth.
• Acceleration in private investment due to improved credit access.
• Monetary policy remains accommodative, boosting consumption.

Bearish scenario (15% probability)

• Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting trade and investment.
• Energy price shocks increase inflation, forcing monetary tightening.
• Fiscal consolidation pressures reduce government spending.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Albania’s long-term growth depends on structural reforms in governance, education, and infrastructure. Improving labor productivity and diversifying exports remain key challenges. Demographic shifts and EU integration prospects will also shape growth trajectories.

Albania’s Q3 2025 GDP growth rate of 0.90% QoQ signals a steady recovery supported by domestic demand and fiscal stimulus. While the macro backdrop remains broadly positive, external risks and structural constraints warrant cautious optimism. Policymakers should balance growth support with inflation control and fiscal sustainability to maintain momentum.

Key Markets Likely to React to GDP Growth Rate QoQ

The GDP growth rate is a critical barometer for Albanian financial markets and regional investors. Key tradable symbols that historically track Albania’s economic momentum include:

• ALB – Albanian equity index, sensitive to domestic growth trends.
• EURALL – Euro to Albanian lek currency pair, reflecting capital flows and sentiment.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin, as a proxy for risk appetite and alternative investment flows.
• ALP – Albanian banking sector stocks, linked to credit growth and financial conditions.
• USDEUR – US dollar to euro, influencing regional trade and investment dynamics.

FAQs

What is the current GDP Growth Rate QoQ for Albania?

The latest GDP growth rate for Albania in Q3 2025 is 0.90% quarter-on-quarter.

How does Albania’s GDP growth compare historically?

The 0.90% growth is above recent quarters but below peaks like 2.80% in Q4 2024, indicating steady but moderate expansion.

What factors influence Albania’s GDP growth?

Key drivers include domestic consumption, investment, fiscal stimulus, monetary policy, and external trade conditions.

Final takeaway: Albania’s economy is on a steady growth path, supported by sound policies and improving fundamentals, but must navigate external risks and structural challenges to sustain momentum.