Key Takeaways: AM’s unemployment rate fell to 13.40% in October 2025, down from 13.90% last quarter but above the 12-month average of 13.30%. This signals modest labor market improvement amid persistent structural challenges. Monetary tightening and geopolitical risks continue to weigh on growth prospects.

The latest unemployment rate for AM, released on October 6, 2025, registered at 13.40%, improving from 13.90% in July but still elevated relative to the 12-month average of 13.30% according to the Sigmanomics database. This reading reflects a partial recovery in labor market conditions after a peak of 15.50% in July 2024. The data covers the entire country and is seasonally adjusted, providing a timely snapshot of employment dynamics as of Q3 2025.

Drivers this month

• Improved agricultural output and seasonal hiring reduced unemployment by 0.50 percentage points.
• Service sector layoffs moderated, contributing to a 0.30 percentage point decline.
• Manufacturing sector remains weak, limiting further gains.

Policy pulse

The 13.40% rate remains above the central bank’s comfort zone, complicating monetary policy decisions. Inflation remains sticky, prompting cautious rate hikes despite labor market softening.

Market lens

Following the release, the USDEUR currency pair saw a mild 0.10% appreciation of AM’s currency, reflecting investor optimism on labor market improvement. Short-term yields on government bonds edged down 5 basis points.

The unemployment rate is a core macroeconomic indicator closely tied to GDP growth, inflation, and consumer confidence. AM’s 13.40% rate remains high by regional standards but shows progress from the 15.50% peak in mid-2024. The Sigmanomics database confirms that the rate has fluctuated between 12% and 15.50% over the past 18 months, reflecting ongoing economic volatility.

Historical comparisons

• January 2024: 12.00% – lowest in recent history, reflecting post-pandemic recovery.
• July 2024: 15.50% – peak unemployment amid external shocks and tightening financial conditions.
• July 2025: 13.90% – slight rebound before the current decline.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

The central bank has maintained a cautious stance, balancing inflation control with growth support. The unemployment rate above 13% suggests slack remains, but persistent inflation near 7% limits easing options. Financial conditions tightened in Q2 2025, with credit spreads widening and lending standards rising.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Government spending has focused on infrastructure and social safety nets, supporting job creation. However, budget deficits remain elevated at 4.50% of GDP, constraining fiscal stimulus potential. The unemployment rate’s decline partly reflects these targeted fiscal efforts.

Chart insight

The unemployment trend shows a clear peak in mid-2024 followed by a gradual descent. The current rate suggests the labor market is improving but not yet normalized. The volatility reflects external shocks such as commodity price swings and geopolitical tensions impacting AM’s trade and investment climate.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The AMEX index rose 0.30% within the first hour, reflecting investor confidence in improving employment. The ETHUSD crypto pair showed muted response, indicating limited spillover to risk-on assets.

Looking ahead, the unemployment rate trajectory depends on several factors including monetary policy, fiscal stimulus, and external shocks. We outline three scenarios:

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Global demand recovers, boosting exports and manufacturing jobs.
• Monetary policy eases moderately as inflation cools, supporting credit growth.
• Unemployment falls below 12.50% by mid-2026.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Gradual improvement in services and agriculture offsets manufacturing weakness.
• Monetary tightening persists but does not intensify.
• Unemployment stabilizes near 13% through 2026.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting trade and investment.
• Inflation remains sticky, forcing aggressive rate hikes.
• Unemployment rises above 14% by early 2026.

Structural & long-run trends

AM faces structural labor market issues including skills mismatch and regional disparities. Long-term unemployment remains elevated, suggesting the need for targeted retraining and regional development policies. Demographic shifts also pressure the labor supply, requiring adaptive workforce strategies.

The October 2025 unemployment rate of 13.40% signals modest labor market recovery but highlights persistent challenges. Policymakers must balance inflation control with growth support amid external uncertainties. Structural reforms remain critical to reduce long-term unemployment and improve labor market resilience.

Key Markets Likely to React to Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate influences multiple markets, particularly equities, forex, and crypto. The AMEX index often tracks labor market shifts closely, reflecting corporate earnings outlook. The USDEUR currency pair reacts to changes in monetary policy expectations driven by employment data. In crypto, ETHUSD shows sensitivity to risk sentiment linked to economic fundamentals. Additionally, TSLA and GBPUSD provide broader market sentiment cues tied to global economic health.

FAQs

What does the latest AM unemployment rate indicate?

The 13.40% rate shows modest improvement from mid-2024 highs but signals ongoing labor market challenges.

How does unemployment affect AM’s monetary policy?

Elevated unemployment limits rate hikes but persistent inflation forces cautious tightening.

What are the risks to the unemployment outlook?

Geopolitical tensions and inflation persistence pose downside risks; global recovery offers upside potential.

Takeaway: AM’s labor market is on a slow recovery path, but sustained policy support and structural reforms are essential to achieve durable employment gains.