Argentina’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2025 increased by 2.40% month-over-month (MoM), surpassing the 2.10% consensus forecast and the prior month’s 2.10% gain. This data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, reflects ongoing inflationary pressures in a volatile macroeconomic environment. Year-over-year (YoY) inflation remains elevated, though below the peaks seen in early 2025.

Drivers this month

• Shelter costs contributed 0.22 percentage points (pp), reflecting persistent rental and utility price rises.
• Food and beverages added 0.35 pp, driven by supply chain disruptions and currency depreciation.
• Transport inflation eased slightly, subtracting -0.05 pp due to lower fuel prices.

Policy pulse

The November CPI reading remains above the Central Bank of Argentina’s inflation target range of 2.00% monthly, signaling continued inflationary risks. Monetary authorities face a delicate balance between tightening financial conditions and supporting fragile economic growth.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The ARS depreciated 0.40% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose by 15 basis points, reflecting heightened inflation risk premiums.

The November CPI print of 2.40% MoM marks a slight acceleration from October’s 2.10%, yet remains well below the 37.60% spike recorded in August 2025. The 12-month average monthly inflation rate stands at approximately 7.10%, underscoring persistent inflationary challenges. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy, remains sticky at around 2.00% monthly.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Central Bank of Argentina has maintained a cautious stance, keeping benchmark interest rates near 75% nominal annualized to anchor inflation expectations. However, real rates remain negative due to high inflation, limiting policy effectiveness. Credit growth has slowed, and liquidity conditions are tightening amid fiscal consolidation efforts.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal tightening continues as the government targets a primary surplus of 1.50% of GDP for 2025. Recent tax hikes and spending cuts aim to reduce deficit financing needs, which have historically fueled inflation. However, social spending pressures and subsidies remain significant, complicating fiscal discipline.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Global commodity price volatility and geopolitical tensions in key trade partners have disrupted supply chains, contributing to inflationary pressures. The ongoing uncertainty around Argentina’s debt restructuring negotiations also weighs on market confidence and currency stability.

The monthly inflation trajectory shows a clear deceleration from the mid-year peak, yet the persistence of inflation above 2% monthly signals entrenched price pressures. The volatility in food and energy prices remains a key driver of headline inflation fluctuations.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The ARS/USD exchange rate weakened by 0.40%, while sovereign bond yields climbed, reflecting investor concerns about sustained inflation and fiscal risks. Breakeven inflation rates in local inflation-linked bonds rose by 10 basis points, signaling market expectations of persistent inflation.

Looking ahead, Argentina’s inflation trajectory will depend on several key factors, including monetary policy tightening, fiscal discipline, and external conditions. The Central Bank’s ability to maintain real positive interest rates is critical to anchoring inflation expectations.

Bullish scenario (20% probability)

• Successful fiscal consolidation reduces deficit financing.
• Global commodity prices stabilize, easing supply-side pressures.
• Monetary policy tightening gains traction, pushing inflation below 2% MoM by Q2 2026.

Base scenario (55% probability)

• Inflation remains elevated but gradually moderates to 1.50–2.00% MoM.
• Fiscal policy remains tight but constrained by social spending needs.
• Currency volatility persists, limiting real rate improvements.

Bearish scenario (25% probability)

• Fiscal slippage triggers renewed inflation spikes above 3% MoM.
• External shocks worsen, disrupting supply chains and commodity prices.
• Monetary policy loses credibility, leading to currency depreciation and inflation acceleration.

Argentina’s November CPI data confirms persistent inflationary pressures despite recent moderation from mid-year peaks. The interplay of monetary tightening, fiscal consolidation, and external risks will shape the inflation path in 2026. Market reactions suggest cautious sentiment, with inflation expectations remaining elevated. Structural challenges such as currency volatility and supply chain disruptions underscore the complexity of Argentina’s inflation dynamics.

Policy makers must balance inflation control with growth and social stability, while investors should monitor fiscal signals and external developments closely. The Sigmanomics database provides a vital lens to track these evolving trends and inform strategic decisions.

Key Markets Likely to React to CPI

The CPI release typically impacts Argentina’s currency, bond, and equity markets. The USDPEN currency pair often moves in tandem with inflation surprises due to regional trade linkages. Sovereign bonds such as AL30 reflect inflation risk premiums. The equity market, represented by MERVAL, reacts to inflation-driven cost pressures and policy shifts. Cryptocurrencies like BTCUSD sometimes serve as alternative inflation hedges. Lastly, the USDBRL pair is relevant due to Brazil’s economic ties with Argentina.

FAQs

What does the latest CPI reading indicate about inflation in Argentina?

The 2.40% MoM increase signals persistent inflation pressures, slightly above expectations, indicating ongoing challenges for price stability.

How might monetary policy respond to the November CPI data?

The Central Bank is likely to maintain or tighten policy to anchor inflation expectations, balancing growth risks amid fiscal constraints.

What are the main risks to Argentina’s inflation outlook?

Risks include fiscal slippage, currency depreciation, external shocks, and supply chain disruptions that could accelerate inflation beyond current forecasts.

Final takeaway: Argentina’s inflation remains elevated but shows tentative signs of moderation. Vigilant policy and external stability are crucial to sustaining this trend.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Updated 11/13/25