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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ArgentinaArgentina Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 2.1% in October 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
Argentina Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 2.1% in October 2025, released March 2026, down 1.2% from September's 3.3% reading. The reading matched the 2.2% consensus. Gross Domestic Product YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the lowest in 12 months.
Latest Release
2.1
Actual
2.2
Consensus
3.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 2.2
Actual: 2.1
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Argentina) was reported at 2.1% in March 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.2% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 23, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - AR
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Argentina
DEFINITION
Argentina’s Gross Domestic Product YoY growth slowed to 2.1% in February 2026, missing the 2.2% estimate and down from January’s 3.3%. This marks the weakest pace since March 2025, reflecting a broad-based moderation across sectors and a continued downward trend from the 6.3% peak in September 2025. Market reaction was muted as investors await further policy signals amid subdued risk appetite. Updated 3/20/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2025): actual 2.1 %, consensus 2.2 %. Prior reading (Jul 2025): 3.3 %. Before that (Apr 2025): 6.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.