Argentina's inflation rate for November 2025 registered a 2.50% month-over-month (MoM) increase, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This figure exceeded market expectations of 2.40% and marked a rise from October's 2.30% inflation. Over the past six months, inflation has shown a gradual upward trajectory, with monthly rates ranging from 1.50% in June to the current 2.50% in November. The 12-month average inflation rate stands at approximately 2.30% MoM, underscoring persistent inflationary pressures in the Argentine economy.

Drivers This Month

• Food and beverage prices contributed 0.90 percentage points (pp) to the monthly increase, reflecting supply chain disruptions and seasonal demand.
• Energy costs added 0.50 pp, influenced by global oil price volatility and domestic subsidy adjustments.
• Services inflation rose by 0.60 pp, driven by wage adjustments and increased transportation costs.
• Core inflation components excluding volatile items remained elevated at 2.10% MoM.

Policy Pulse

The Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) continues to pursue a tightening monetary stance, with benchmark interest rates held at elevated levels to curb inflation. Despite these efforts, inflation remains above the BCRA's implicit target range of 1.50%–2.00% MoM, signaling ongoing challenges in anchoring inflation expectations.

Market Lens

Following the inflation release, the Argentine peso (ARS) depreciated modestly against the US dollar, reflecting investor concerns over persistent inflation. Short-term government bond yields rose by approximately 15 basis points, while equity markets showed muted reactions amid broader regional volatility.

Examining core macroeconomic indicators alongside inflation reveals a complex environment. GDP growth for Q3 2025 slowed to 0.80% quarter-over-quarter, indicating subdued economic momentum. Unemployment remained steady at 8.50%, while wage growth accelerated by 3.20% YoY, contributing to cost-push inflation.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The BCRA's policy rate currently stands at 75%, unchanged since September 2025, reflecting a commitment to inflation control despite growth headwinds. Liquidity conditions tightened, with reserve requirements increased by 200 basis points in November. Credit growth slowed to 1.10% MoM, signaling cautious lending amid inflation uncertainty.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal deficits remain a concern, with the government reporting a 4.20% of GDP shortfall in Q3 2025. Revenue collection improved slightly due to inflation-linked tax brackets, but public spending pressures persist, particularly in social programs and energy subsidies. The government aims to reduce the deficit to 3.50% of GDP by mid-2026.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Global commodity price fluctuations, especially in soy and oil, have impacted Argentina's trade balance. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in Latin America and trade uncertainties with key partners like Brazil and China add layers of risk to inflation dynamics and export revenues.

Chart Insight Box

Market Lens

Immediate reaction: The ARS/USD exchange rate weakened by 0.30% within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose 12 basis points, reflecting increased inflation risk premiums. Breakeven inflation rates edged higher, signaling market expectations for sustained inflation above target.

Looking ahead, Argentina faces a range of inflation scenarios shaped by domestic and external factors. The baseline forecast anticipates inflation stabilizing around 2.40% MoM in the coming months, assuming continued monetary discipline and moderate fiscal consolidation.

Bullish Scenario (20% Probability)

• Global commodity prices ease, reducing import costs.
• Fiscal reforms gain traction, lowering deficit pressures.
• Monetary policy tightening successfully anchors inflation expectations.
• Inflation slows to 1.80%–2.00% MoM by Q1 2026.

Base Scenario (60% Probability)

• Inflation remains elevated but stable around 2.30%–2.50% MoM.
• Monetary policy maintains current stance with gradual adjustments.
• Fiscal consolidation progresses slowly, limiting deficit reduction.
• External shocks cause moderate volatility but no major disruptions.

Bearish Scenario (20% Probability)

• Worsening geopolitical tensions disrupt trade and commodity flows.
• Fiscal slippage leads to higher deficits and increased money supply.
• Monetary policy loses credibility, fueling inflation expectations.
• Inflation accelerates above 3.00% MoM, risking stagflation.

Argentina's November 2025 inflation data underscores the persistent challenge of taming price pressures amid complex macroeconomic dynamics. While monetary and fiscal policies aim to stabilize inflation, structural factors and external risks complicate the outlook. Market participants remain cautious, pricing in continued volatility. Policymakers must balance growth and inflation control carefully to avoid destabilizing the fragile recovery.

Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate MoM

Inflation data in Argentina typically influences currency, bond, equity, and commodity markets. The Argentine peso (ARS) often reacts swiftly to inflation surprises, reflecting shifts in monetary policy expectations. Government bond yields adjust to inflation risk, while equities respond to growth and cost pressures. Commodity-linked assets also move in tandem due to Argentina's export profile.

• USDPEN – The USD/PEN pair often correlates with regional inflation trends and risk sentiment, impacting ARS indirectly.
• YPF – Argentina's leading energy company, sensitive to inflation and energy price shifts.
• USDMXN – Mexican peso dynamics provide regional inflation and policy comparison insights.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin often acts as an inflation hedge, with price movements reflecting inflation concerns.
• GALP.LS – Portuguese energy stock influenced by global commodity prices, indirectly linked to inflation trends.

FAQs

What does the November 2025 inflation rate MoM indicate for Argentina's economy?

The 2.50% MoM inflation rate suggests persistent price pressures, signaling challenges for monetary policy and potential impacts on consumer purchasing power.

How does the November 2025 inflation compare to previous months?

November's 2.50% exceeds October's 2.30% and reverses a mid-year slowdown, indicating an upward inflation trend over recent months.

What are the main risks affecting Argentina's inflation outlook?

Risks include fiscal slippage, external commodity price shocks, geopolitical tensions, and potential loss of monetary policy credibility.

In summary, Argentina's November 2025 inflation data reveals a stubbornly high inflation environment with significant policy and market implications. Vigilant monitoring and adaptive policy responses will be critical to navigating the complex macroeconomic landscape ahead.

Updated 12/11/25

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.