Argentina’s inflation rate for November 2025 increased by 2.30% month-over-month (MoM), according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database. This figure slightly exceeded market expectations of 2.20% and represents a rise from October’s 2.10%. Over the past 12 months, inflation has averaged approximately 2.30% MoM, underscoring persistent price pressures in the economy.

Drivers this month

• Food and beverage prices contributed 0.90 percentage points (pp) to the monthly inflation.
• Energy costs added 0.50 pp, reflecting higher international oil prices and domestic fuel adjustments.
• Housing and utilities accounted for 0.40 pp, driven by rising rents and electricity tariffs.
• Transport and communication sectors added 0.30 pp.
• Used car prices slightly eased, subtracting -0.10 pp.

Policy pulse

The inflation rate remains well above the Central Bank of Argentina’s (BCRA) informal target range of 1.50% MoM, signaling ongoing challenges for monetary policy. The BCRA has maintained a cautious stance, keeping the benchmark interest rate near 75% nominal annualized, balancing inflation control with growth concerns.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The ARS depreciated by 0.40% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while 2-year sovereign bond yields rose by 15 basis points. Inflation breakeven rates in local inflation-linked bonds climbed modestly, reflecting heightened inflation risk premia.

Argentina’s inflation trajectory remains influenced by core macroeconomic indicators, including GDP growth, unemployment, and wage dynamics. The economy expanded by 2.10% YoY in Q3 2025, a slowdown from 3.00% in Q2, while unemployment held steady at 8.50%. Wage growth averaged 3.50% MoM, insufficient to keep pace with inflation, eroding real incomes.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The BCRA’s monetary policy remains restrictive but measured. The policy rate has hovered around 75% since mid-2025, aiming to anchor inflation expectations without triggering a sharp economic contraction. Credit growth slowed to 1.20% MoM, reflecting tighter financial conditions and cautious lending.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal deficits remain a key concern. The government’s primary deficit widened to 3.80% of GDP in Q3, driven by elevated social spending and subsidies. Debt servicing costs rose amid higher inflation and interest rates, pressuring public finances and limiting fiscal space.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Global commodity price volatility and geopolitical tensions in key trade partners have exacerbated inflationary pressures. The recent surge in oil prices and supply chain disruptions have increased import costs. Additionally, uncertainty around trade agreements with Mercosur partners adds to external risk.

Chart Insight

The inflation trend shows a clear upward trajectory since mid-2025, with minor fluctuations. The current figure suggests that inflationary pressures are not abating, driven by structural factors and external shocks.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The ARS/USD exchange rate weakened by 0.40%, reflecting concerns over sustained inflation. Sovereign bond yields rose, signaling increased risk premiums. Inflation-linked bond breakevens climbed, indicating market expectations of continued inflation above target.

Looking ahead, Argentina’s inflation trajectory will depend on several factors, including monetary policy tightening, fiscal consolidation, and external conditions. The base case scenario projects inflation averaging 2.10% MoM over the next quarter, with risks skewed to the upside.

Bullish Scenario (20% probability)

• Successful fiscal reforms reduce deficit and inflation expectations.
• Monetary policy tightening gains traction, pushing inflation below 2% MoM.
• Global commodity prices stabilize, easing import cost pressures.

Base Scenario (55% probability)

• Inflation remains elevated around 2.10–2.30% MoM.
• Monetary policy maintains current stance with gradual tightening.
• Fiscal deficits persist but are managed without crisis.

Bearish Scenario (25% probability)

• External shocks worsen, pushing inflation above 2.50% MoM.
• Currency depreciation accelerates, fueling imported inflation.
• Fiscal slippage leads to loss of market confidence and higher risk premiums.

Argentina’s inflation remains a critical macroeconomic challenge. The November 2025 MoM reading of 2.30% underscores persistent price pressures amid complex fiscal and monetary dynamics. While some easing is possible with policy adjustments, external vulnerabilities and structural inflation drivers limit near-term relief. Market participants should monitor currency trends, bond yields, and policy signals closely.

Key tradable assets linked to Argentina’s inflation dynamics include the YPF stock, sensitive to energy price shifts; the USDPEN currency pair, reflecting regional currency pressures; the BTCUSD crypto pair, often a hedge against inflation; the BMA bank stock, impacted by interest rate changes; and the USDMXN pair, a regional currency proxy influencing investor sentiment.