Argentina’s Inflation Rate YoY: November 2025 Update and Macroeconomic Implications
Table of Contents
Argentina’s inflation rate YoY for November 2025 registered at 31.30%, down from 31.80% in October, according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database. This marks a continuation of the downward trend from the start of the year, when inflation peaked at 117.80% in January. The easing pace has slowed, signaling persistent inflationary pressures despite policy efforts.
Drivers this month
- Food and beverage prices contributed 0.12 percentage points (pp) to inflation, down from 0.15 pp last month.
- Energy costs remained stable, contributing 0.05 pp, reflecting government subsidies and price controls.
- Services inflation moderated slightly, adding 0.08 pp versus 0.10 pp in October.
Policy pulse
The inflation rate remains nearly three times the central bank’s 10% target for 2025, underscoring the challenge of anchoring inflation expectations. The Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) has maintained high policy rates near 90% nominal, aiming to curb demand and stabilize the ARS currency.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The ARS/USD exchange rate depreciated 0.40% within the first hour post-release, reflecting market skepticism about near-term inflation control. Sovereign bond yields in the 2-year segment rose 15 basis points, signaling risk premia adjustments.
Core macroeconomic indicators provide context for the inflation trajectory. Argentina’s GDP growth slowed to an estimated 1.20% YoY in Q3 2025, down from 2.10% in Q2, reflecting tighter monetary conditions and subdued investment. Unemployment remains elevated at 9.80%, limiting wage-driven inflation pressures but constraining consumption.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The BCRA’s benchmark interest rate has held steady at 90%, with real rates positive but modestly declining due to easing inflation. Credit growth remains subdued, and banking sector liquidity is stable but cautious. The central bank’s foreign reserves stand at $38 billion, providing a buffer against external shocks but below pre-crisis levels.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
The government’s fiscal deficit narrowed to 3.50% of GDP in Q3 2025, aided by improved tax collection and spending restraint. However, public debt remains high at 85% of GDP, limiting fiscal space. Subsidies on energy and transport continue to weigh on the budget, complicating inflation control efforts.
This chart highlights a clear downward trend in inflation, reversing the hyperinflationary surge of early 2025. However, the slow pace signals that Argentina’s inflation remains a macroeconomic risk, requiring sustained policy discipline and structural reforms to achieve durable price stability.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Following the inflation release, the ARS currency weakened modestly, and local equity indices showed mixed performance. Inflation-linked bonds saw increased demand, reflecting investor hedging against persistent inflation risks.
Looking ahead, Argentina’s inflation trajectory depends on several factors. The baseline scenario (60% probability) projects inflation declining gradually to 20% by end-2026, assuming continued monetary tightening and moderate fiscal consolidation. This would support improved investor confidence and currency stabilization.
The bullish scenario (20% probability) envisions faster disinflation to below 15%, driven by successful structural reforms, stronger export growth, and improved external conditions. This would enable lower interest rates and a pickup in economic growth.
The bearish scenario (20% probability) involves inflation remaining above 30% or rising again due to fiscal slippage, renewed currency depreciation, or external shocks such as commodity price volatility or geopolitical tensions. This would prolong economic uncertainty and constrain growth.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global commodity price fluctuations, especially in soy and energy, remain critical for Argentina’s inflation and fiscal outlook. Geopolitical tensions in key trade partners could disrupt exports and capital flows, adding volatility to inflation expectations.
Argentina’s inflation rate easing to 31.30% YoY is a positive sign but still signals significant macroeconomic challenges. Persistent inflation above target, combined with fiscal constraints and external vulnerabilities, requires a balanced policy mix. Monetary tightening must continue alongside credible fiscal reforms to anchor inflation expectations and restore economic stability.
Financial markets remain cautious, reflecting uncertainty about policy effectiveness and external risks. Structural reforms in labor markets, subsidies, and tax administration will be key to sustaining disinflation and supporting long-run growth.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate YoY
Argentina’s inflation data typically influences currency, bond, equity, and commodity markets. The ARS/USD exchange rate is highly sensitive to inflation surprises, as it affects monetary policy expectations. Sovereign bonds reflect inflation risk premia, while local equities respond to economic growth prospects. Commodity prices, especially soybeans, impact inflation indirectly through export revenues and fiscal balances.
- ARSUSD: Directly impacted by inflation-driven monetary policy and capital flows.
- MERVAL: Argentina’s main stock index, sensitive to inflation and economic outlook.
- BMA: Banco Macro, a major bank whose earnings reflect credit conditions and inflation.
- USDMXN: Regional currency pair providing comparative inflation and monetary policy insights.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin, often viewed as an inflation hedge and alternative asset in volatile environments.
Inflation Rate vs. ARSUSD Exchange Rate Since 2020
| Year | Inflation Rate YoY (%) | ARSUSD Exchange Rate (Year-End) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 36.10 | 84.50 |
| 2021 | 50.90 | 102.30 |
| 2022 | 94.80 | 140.70 |
| 2023 | 102.40 | 180.20 |
| 2024 | 65.70 | 220.50 |
| 2025 (Nov) | 31.30 | 245.00 |
Insight: The ARSUSD exchange rate has depreciated steadily alongside high inflation, underscoring the currency’s sensitivity to price stability. Despite recent inflation easing, the ARS remains under pressure, reflecting ongoing macroeconomic imbalances.
FAQs
- What is the current Inflation Rate YoY for Argentina?
- The latest inflation rate for Argentina is 31.30% YoY as of November 2025, showing a slight decline from 31.80% in October.
- How does this inflation rate compare historically?
- Inflation has fallen significantly from a peak of 117.80% in January 2025 but remains elevated compared to the 12-month average of 53.80%.
- What are the main risks to Argentina’s inflation outlook?
- Risks include fiscal slippage, currency depreciation, external shocks, and delayed structural reforms, which could keep inflation elevated or cause it to rise again.
Takeaway: Argentina’s inflation is easing but remains a critical challenge. Sustained policy discipline and reforms are essential to restore price stability and economic confidence.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 11/13/25
ARSUSD – Argentine Peso vs. US Dollar exchange rate, highly sensitive to inflation and monetary policy.
MERVAL – Argentina’s main stock market index, reflecting economic and inflation expectations.
BMA – Banco Macro, a major Argentine bank, impacted by credit conditions and inflation.
USDMXN – US Dollar vs. Mexican Peso, providing regional inflation and monetary policy context.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin vs. US Dollar, often viewed as an inflation hedge in volatile markets.
The inflation rate of 31.30% YoY in November 2025 compares to 31.80% in October and a 12-month average of 53.80%. This steady decline from the early 2025 peak of 117.80% reflects gradual stabilization but remains elevated by historical standards. The pace of disinflation has slowed, suggesting entrenched inflation expectations.
Monthly inflation contributions show food prices easing but still a dominant factor, while energy and services inflation remain sticky. The persistence of inflation above 30% indicates structural challenges beyond monetary policy alone.