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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ArgentinaArgentina Trade Balance climbed to 988M in July 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2025
Argentina Trade Balance climbed to 988M in July 2025, released August 2025, up 82M from June's 906M reading. The print exceeded the 690M consensus by 298M. Trade Balance has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Trade Balance averaged 757M, vs 251.33M in the prior 3-month window. Trade Balance is now the highest in 6 months.
Latest Release
988
Actual
690
Consensus
906
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±254.13 million
across last 6 releases
Last Call
Aug 2025
Predicted: 683.5
Actual: 988
Error: -304.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Trade Balance (Argentina) was reported at 921.00 million in October 2025. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2025.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 938.33 million, up from the prior three at 378.33 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 6 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 254.13 million.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2025.
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Trade Balance - AR
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About Trade Balance — Argentina
DEFINITION
Trade balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is a net importer or exporter. A positive trade balance indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative trade balance indicates the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2025): actual 921 M. Prior reading (Jul 2025): 988 M. Before that (Jun 2025): 906 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.