Argentina's Unemployment Rate for November 2025 Falls to 6.60%, Marking a Significant Improvement
Key Takeaways: Argentina's unemployment rate for November 2025 dropped sharply to 6.60%, well below the 7.20% estimate and October's 7.60%. This marks the lowest reading since March 2025 and signals a potential easing in labor market pressures amid ongoing macroeconomic challenges. The 12-month average remains elevated at 7.10%, reflecting persistent structural issues despite recent gains.
Table of Contents
Argentina's unemployment rate for November 2025, released on December 18, 2025, registered at 6.60%, a notable decline from October's 7.60% and beating the consensus estimate of 7.20% according to the Sigmanomics database. This improvement follows a volatile year marked by labor market fluctuations, with the rate peaking at 7.90% in June 2025 and averaging 7.10% over the past 12 months.
Drivers This Month
- Seasonal hiring in agriculture and services boosted employment.
- Government stimulus programs supported job creation in urban centers.
- Informal sector contraction slowed, stabilizing overall labor participation.
Policy Pulse
The unemployment rate now sits below the central bank’s comfort zone, potentially easing pressure on monetary tightening. However, inflation remains elevated, complicating policy decisions.
Market Lens
Immediate reaction: The ARS/USD currency pair strengthened 0.30% in the hour following the release, reflecting improved confidence in Argentina’s economic resilience.
The November 2025 unemployment rate of 6.60% marks a 1.00 percentage point (pp) month-over-month (MoM) improvement from October's 7.60%. Compared to September 2025 (7.60%) and June 2025 (7.90%), the decline is even more pronounced. Year-over-year (YoY), the rate is down from 7.70% in November 2024, signaling a gradual recovery in labor markets despite ongoing macroeconomic headwinds.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Central Bank of Argentina has maintained a tight monetary stance throughout 2025 to combat inflation, which hovered near 90% annually. The drop in unemployment may reduce pressure for further rate hikes, but inflation risks keep the policy stance cautious. Financial conditions remain tight, with high real interest rates and limited credit growth.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal stimulus measures, including targeted subsidies and employment programs, have supported job creation. However, Argentina’s fiscal deficit remains elevated, constraining the scope for expansive fiscal policy. The government’s budget discipline efforts aim to stabilize debt dynamics amid external financing challenges.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global commodity price volatility and geopolitical tensions in key export markets have introduced uncertainty. However, Argentina’s diversified export base and recent trade agreements have helped cushion external shocks, supporting labor demand in export-oriented sectors.
This chart highlights a clear downward trend in unemployment after a mid-year peak, signaling improving labor market conditions. The sharp November drop may indicate a turning point, but sustained gains depend on macroeconomic stability and policy support.
Market Lens
Immediate reaction: The ARS/USD exchange rate appreciated by 0.30% post-release, while local equity indices showed modest gains, reflecting optimism about economic recovery prospects.
Looking ahead, Argentina’s labor market faces mixed prospects. The unemployment rate’s decline to 6.60% is encouraging but must be weighed against persistent inflation, fiscal constraints, and external vulnerabilities.
Bullish Scenario (30% Probability)
- Continued economic growth driven by exports and domestic demand.
- Effective inflation control enabling monetary easing.
- Further job creation reducing unemployment below 6% by mid-2026.
Base Scenario (50% Probability)
- Moderate GDP growth with stable but elevated inflation.
- Unemployment stabilizes around 6.50%-7.00% through 2026.
- Fiscal discipline limits stimulus but maintains social support.
Bearish Scenario (20% Probability)
- Inflation spikes force tighter monetary policy.
- External shocks disrupt exports, slowing job growth.
- Unemployment rises back above 7.50% by late 2026.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Argentina’s labor market continues to grapple with informality, skill mismatches, and regional disparities. Long-term reforms in education, labor laws, and infrastructure are critical to sustaining employment gains and reducing structural unemployment.
November 2025’s unemployment rate of 6.60% offers a hopeful sign for Argentina’s economy. The improvement reflects seasonal factors, policy support, and resilience amid macroeconomic challenges. However, the path forward remains uncertain given inflationary pressures and fiscal constraints. Policymakers must balance growth and stability to maintain labor market momentum.
Key Markets Likely to React to Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate is a critical barometer for Argentina’s economic health and influences multiple asset classes. Labor market improvements typically boost investor confidence, impacting currency, equities, and bond markets. The following symbols historically track or react to changes in Argentina’s unemployment data:
- ARSUSD – The Argentine peso to US dollar exchange rate often strengthens with better labor market data.
- BYMA – Argentina’s main stock exchange index, sensitive to economic growth signals.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price can reflect risk sentiment shifts linked to macroeconomic developments.
- USDMXN – Mexican peso to US dollar pair, often correlated with regional economic trends affecting Argentina.
- TSLA – Tesla’s stock, as a proxy for global growth sentiment, can react to emerging market labor data indirectly.
Since 2020, the ARSUSD exchange rate has shown a strong inverse correlation with Argentina’s unemployment rate. Periods of falling unemployment coincide with ARS appreciation, underscoring the currency’s sensitivity to labor market health.
FAQ
- What does the November 2025 unemployment rate indicate about Argentina’s economy?
- The 6.60% rate suggests improving labor market conditions, signaling potential economic recovery despite inflation and fiscal challenges.
- How does the unemployment rate affect monetary policy in Argentina?
- Lower unemployment may reduce pressure for further rate hikes, but persistent inflation keeps monetary policy cautious.
- Why is the unemployment rate important for investors?
- It reflects economic health and influences currency, equity, and bond markets, guiding investment decisions.
Takeaway: Argentina’s November 2025 unemployment rate decline to 6.60% marks a positive shift, but sustained progress hinges on controlling inflation and fiscal stability.
ARSUSD – Argentine peso to US dollar exchange rate, sensitive to labor market shifts.
BYMA – Argentina’s stock market index, reflecting economic growth and investor sentiment.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin price, a proxy for risk appetite influenced by macroeconomic data.
USDMXN – Mexican peso to US dollar, correlated with regional economic trends.
TSLA – Tesla stock, a global growth sentiment indicator indirectly linked to emerging market data.
November 2025’s unemployment rate of 6.60% represents a sharp reversal from October’s 7.60% and is well below the 12-month average of 7.10%. This decline is the most significant monthly improvement since March 2025, when the rate was 6.40%. The trend suggests a strengthening labor market, albeit from a high base.
Historical data from the Sigmanomics database shows unemployment fluctuated between 5.70% and 7.90% over the past two years, with seasonal and policy factors influencing short-term dynamics. The recent drop aligns with increased economic activity in services and agriculture during the southern hemisphere’s spring season.