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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Ai Group Construction Index fell to -34.5 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Australia Ai Group Construction Index fell to -34.5 in September 2026, released October 2026, down 29.8 from August's -4.7 reading. The reading missed the -7 consensus by 27.5. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -15.52. Over the past 3 months, Ai Group Construction Index averaged -23.75, vs -22.43 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 16th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-34.5
Actual
-7
Consensus
-4.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±13.86
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.63
Actual: -34.5
Error: +35.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Ai Group Construction Index (Australia) was reported at -34.50 in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -7.00 by 27.50. The reading fell from the previous value of -4.70. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -19.02, ranging from -40.60 to 5.20 across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -27.33, down from the prior three at -26.47. Volatility over the past year (σ 15.16) is higher than the prior year (σ 11.80). In October readings over the past 3 years, Ai Group Construction Index has averaged -11.93.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/NZD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 13.86.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 3, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC AUD speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Building Permits MoM (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Ai Group Construction Index - AU
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About Ai Group Construction Index — Australia
DEFINITION
The Ai Group Construction Index is a leading economic indicator that measures the performance of the construction industry in Australia. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the sector, including factors such as employment, new orders, and business conditions. This index is widely used by businesses, policymakers, and investors to make informed decisions and stay ahead of market trends. With its comprehensive and timely data, the Ai Group Construction Index is a crucial tool for monitoring the state of the Australian construction industry.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -34.5, consensus -7. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -6.9. Before that (Jul 2026): -40.6.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/NZD (Bullish AUD, r=0.54) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | AU | Import Prices QoQ | -1.1 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 0.10 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Export Prices QoQ | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.35 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit YoY | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 8.32 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Housing Credit MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.43 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.57 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Producer Price Index QoQ | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1 | 1.27 | Medium |
| 00:30 | AU | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 4.55 | Low |