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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Ai Group Construction Index climbed to -6.9 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Australia Ai Group Construction Index climbed to -6.9 in August 2026, released September 2026, up 36.9 from July's -43.8 reading. The print exceeded the -42 consensus by 35.1. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -15.06. Over the past 3 months, Ai Group Construction Index averaged -39.35, vs -20.2 in the prior 3-month window. Ai Group Construction Index is now the highest in 6 months.
Latest Release
-6.9
Actual
-42
Consensus
-43.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±10.05
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -49.18
Actual: -6.9
Error: -42.27
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Ai Group Construction Index (Australia) was reported at -6.90 in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of -42.00 by 35.10. The reading rose from the previous value of -43.80. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -16.80, ranging from -40.60 to 5.20 across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -28.53, down from the prior three at -16.50. Volatility over the past year (σ 14.33) is higher than the prior year (σ 11.97). In September readings over the past 3 years, Ai Group Construction Index has averaged -14.08.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 10.05.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC AUD speculative net positions (Sep 18) and RBA Hunter Speech (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Ai Group Construction Index - AU
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About Ai Group Construction Index — Australia
DEFINITION
The Ai Group Construction Index is a leading economic indicator that measures the performance of the construction industry in Australia. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the sector, including factors such as employment, new orders, and business conditions. This index is widely used by businesses, policymakers, and investors to make informed decisions and stay ahead of market trends. With its comprehensive and timely data, the Ai Group Construction Index is a crucial tool for monitoring the state of the Australian construction industry.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -6.9, consensus -42. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -40.6. Before that (Jun 2026): -38.1.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.46) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | AU | Westpac Leading Index MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 01:00 | AU | Leading Index MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |