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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Ai Group Construction Index fell to -40.6 in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Australia Ai Group Construction Index fell to -40.6 in July 2026, released August 2026, down 7.3 from June's -33.3 reading. The reading missed the -36 consensus by 4.6. Ai Group Construction Index has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Ai Group Construction Index averaged -24, vs -19.63 in the prior 3-month window. Ai Group Construction Index is now the lowest in 20 months.
Latest Release
-40.6
Actual
-36
Consensus
-33.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±10.05
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -39.5
Actual: -40.6
Error: +1.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Ai Group Construction Index (Australia) was reported at -40.60 in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of -36.00 by 4.60. The reading fell from the previous value of -33.30. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -16.01, ranging from -40.60 to 5.20 across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -29.53, down from the prior three at -11.47. Volatility over the past year (σ 15.06) is higher than the prior year (σ 12.87). In August readings over the past 3 years, Ai Group Construction Index has averaged -21.70.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/NZD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 10.05.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NAB Business Confidence (Aug 11) and Interest Rate Decision (Aug 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Ai Group Construction Index - AU
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About Ai Group Construction Index — Australia
DEFINITION
The Ai Group Construction Index is a leading economic indicator that measures the performance of the construction industry in Australia. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the sector, including factors such as employment, new orders, and business conditions. This index is widely used by businesses, policymakers, and investors to make informed decisions and stay ahead of market trends. With its comprehensive and timely data, the Ai Group Construction Index is a crucial tool for monitoring the state of the Australian construction industry.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -40.6, consensus -36. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -38.1. Before that (May 2026): -9.9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.57) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Tuesday, August 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | AU | NAB Business Confidence | -5 | -6 | -2.00 | High | |
| 04:30 | AU | Interest Rate Decision | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.35 | High | |
| Friday, August 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | AU | Home Loans QoQ | -4.3 | -2.3 | -7.00 | Medium | |
| 01:30 | AU | Investment Lending for Homes | -3 | -6.4 | -9.70 | Medium | |