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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Ai Group Manufacturing Index climbed to -8.7 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Australia Ai Group Manufacturing Index climbed to -8.7 in September 2026, released October 2026, up 6.2 from August's -14.9 reading. The print exceeded the -16 consensus by 7.3. Ai Group Manufacturing Index has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Ai Group Manufacturing Index averaged -18.1, vs -22.37 in the prior 3-month window. Ai Group Manufacturing Index is now the highest in 18 months.
Latest Release
-8.7
Actual
-16
Consensus
-14.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.42
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -16.3
Actual: -8.7
Error: -7.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P/ASX 200 | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Ai Group Manufacturing Index (Australia) was reported at -8.70 in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of -16.00 by 7.30. The reading rose from the previous value of -14.90. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -18.70, ranging from -27.90 to -8.70 across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -14.97, up from the prior three at -22.37. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.78) is lower than the prior year (σ 5.98). In October readings over the past 3 years, Ai Group Manufacturing Index has averaged -21.07.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with S&P/ASX 200, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.43.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 3, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC AUD speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Building Permits MoM (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Ai Group Manufacturing Index - AU
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About Ai Group Manufacturing Index — Australia
DEFINITION
The Ai Group Manufacturing Index is a leading economic indicator that measures the performance of the manufacturing sector in Australia. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industry by tracking changes in key factors such as production, new orders, employment, and exports. This index is widely used by businesses, policymakers, and investors to make informed decisions and assess the overall state of the Australian economy. With its timely and accurate data, the Ai Group Manufacturing Index is a crucial tool for monitoring the country's manufacturing activity and predicting future trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -8.7, consensus -16. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -16.6. Before that (Jul 2026): -19.6.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.57) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | AU | Import Prices QoQ | -1.1 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 0.10 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Export Prices QoQ | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.35 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit YoY | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 8.32 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Housing Credit MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.43 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.57 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Producer Price Index QoQ | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1 | 1.27 | Medium |
| 00:30 | AU | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 4.55 | Low |